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August 27th 2002 |
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Your Daily Fantasy Rx |
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by Tim Polko Note: Whenever I list three averages for hitters in a row, the order is as follows: BA/OBP/SLG.
Arizona: Erubiel Durazo, 1B He'd likely contend for an MVP if he ever remained healthy and in the lineup for a full season, and hopefully Mark Grace's likely departure from Arizona this off-season will provide Durazo with the needed opportunity. He's holding a career-best .83 BB:K and .22 walk rate, as well as dropping his G-F ratio from a 1.19 average the last two seasons to .88 in 2002. Now Bob Brenly is finally letting Durazo play the majority of games each week, including some starts against left-handers, and with Durazo's skills also peaking, we can expect a strong power surge down the stretch. Acquire Durazo for power and even likely BA help.
July Overachiever: Steve Finley, OF Previous Overachievers: April: Junior Spivey, 2B; May: Damian Miller, C; June: Quinton McCracken, OF
After a fairly unimpressive rookie season in which he hit .222 on the "strength" of a .38 BB:K, .74 contact rate, and at least an acceptable .10 walk rate, he's boosted his average 20 points in similar playing time while falling to a .21 BB:K and .06 walk rate. He only maintained his barely decent .74 contact rate, and we like his power potential even less now that he's posting a .79 G-F instead of last year's .65. Helms' skills obviously are quite weak overall, and he barely deserves his current playing time. Deal or cut Helms in favor of someone with significantly greater upside like Damon Minor, or even someone with solid skills like Greg Colbrunn.
July Overachiever: Julio Franco, ageless 1B Previous Overachievers: April: Andruw Jones, OF; May: Mark DeRosa, Smited Usurping IF; June: Matt Franco, UT
While he's not managing a particularly impressive season, Gonzalez's current .425 SLG is a career high, nicely supported by a career-best 1.15 G-F, a nice drop after a 1.52 last year. Gonzalez could reach twenty homers next year, although I suspect his owners would prefer a return to a dozen or more steals a year instead of the 4 he's managing thus far this season, also his total in 1999 and 2000. He'll probably display more power at the beginning of 2003 than for the balance of this year, so most current Gonzalez owners should likely look to deal him.
July Overachiever: Fred McGriff, 1B Previous Overachievers: April: Corey Patterson, OF; May: Sammy Sosa, OF; June: Mark Bellhorn, IF
I know that Larkin's .660 OPS is the worst of his career, but at least the 38-year-old future Hall-of-Famer has stayed off the DL despite suffering from a series of injuries beginning in early May. He's missed time with tightness in his right hamstring, muscle spasms in his right neck and shoulder, a strained right lower calf, a stiff neck, and tightness in his neck. Unfortunately Larkin is the single greatest reason why the Reds aren't in the middle of the playoff race, as even Royce Clayton has outproduced Larkin and and his extravagant salary prevented Cincinnati from acquiring Bartolo Colon or Chuck Finley. His marginal power contribution and almost a dozen steals can't compensate for his BA damage, and with his worst BB:K since 1987 and worst walk rate since 1997, I don't expect him to experience a strong rebound next year. Deal him if another owner believes Larkin can somehow recapture his former glory.
July Overachiever: Aaron Boone, 3B Previous Overachievers: April: Juan Encarnacion, OF; May: Corky Miller, C; June: Austin Kearns, OF
He wasn't even supposed to see much time in the majors this year but has managed to establish himself as the Rockies' primary 2B following Jose Ortiz's injury. While he owns enough talent to produce double-digit homers and steals in a regular role, neither his .31 BB:K nor .03 walk rate support this BA, and after posting a .92 or better MLE contact rate over the past three years, he's barely holding a .90 this season. Butler's essentially one of the least patience hitters in the majors, seeing only 2.94 pitchers per plate appearance, although at least his 1.08 G-F indicates long-term power potential. Unless you're desperate for MIF power, deal Butler, as a potential 2003 starting role should bring a very solid package in return.
July Overachiever: Larry Walker, OF Previous Overachievers: April: Juan Uribe, SS; May: Bobby Estalella, C; June: Todd Hollandsworth, OF
Jeff Torborg continues to start Redmond during CJ's repeated injury spells instead of Ramon Castro, likely the best all-around catcher in the organization. Redmond is certainly a capable hitter, and after years of only dominating left-handers, he's holding an .856 OPS against right-handers while only posting a .658 OPS against left-handers this year. Perhaps he could continue to succeed in this expanded role, as his .79 BB:K, .09 walk rate, and .89 contact rate are all marginally acceptable, although a career-worst 2.20 G-F severely limits his power potential. We'd rather own Redmond than almost any other backup catcher, but feel free to deal him if you need to exchange excess BA for a small power boost.
July Overachiever: Andy Fox, SS Previous Overachievers: April: Mike Lowell, 3B; May: Eric Owens, OF; June: Luis Castillo, 2B
Houston assembled perhaps the best bench of any team with Merced, Jose Vizcaino, Greg Zaun, Geoff Blum, Brian L. Hunter, and Julio Lugo before injuries and ineffectiveness forced most of these players into starting roles. Merced's now starting in right most days due to first Richard Hidalgo's ineffectiveness and then his injury. He normally peaks in June before slumping throughout most of the second half, and despite relatively decent skills at the moment, I don't expect him to sustain his current level of production. A 1.67 G-F is his worst mark since his rookie year back in 1991, so his power potential will decrease even if he can hold his BA. Since a younger player like Jason Lane could usurp much of Merced's playing time even with Jimy Williams' continued veteran preference, explore a deal involving Merced to find someone who's a more established starter in recent years.
July Overachiever: Geoff Blum, 3B Previous Overachievers: April: Daryle Ward, OF; May: Lance Berkman, OF; June: Jose Vizcaino, IF
With Joe Thurston offering superior skills to Grudzielanek for about five percent of Grudz's salary, I'll be shocked if Mark still starts for the Dodgers next year. He only turned 32 this year, but with a .26 BB:K and .04 walk rate, he's severely fallen from even his relatively unimpressive 1999 season. Somehow he's cut his #P/PA from a 3.72 average in 1999 and 2000 to 3.53 last season and now 3.22 this year, so he's showing no patience at all. Only a rather abrupt drop in his G-F from a 1.81 in 2000 to a 1.49 last year and now a 1.44 in 2002 suggests his power might increase, although considering his weak skills almost across-the-board, he doesn't even deserve occasional starting time. Deal or cut Grudzielanek in favor of the numerous superior 2B options.
July Overachiever: Marquis Grissom, OF Previous Overachievers: April: Eric Karros, 1B; May: Dave Roberts, OF; June: Alex Cora, IF
Sexson continues to develop into a balanced all-around hitter. While his .516 SLG is down from last year's .547, he's compensated by raising his OBP from .342 to .363 on the strength of a 10-point jump in BA. I expect he'll continue improving on these marks as he's reached career bests of a .50 BB:K, .12 walk rate, and a .76 contact rate, all significant improvements over his norms of a .32 BB:K, .09 walk rate, and .72 contact rate. The only mildly troublesome development here is a rise in his G-F to 1.39 after three years of holding a 1.22 average, but given his skill jump in plate discipline, a slight drop in power potential doesn't seem overly important. You should probably at least wait out the season on Sexson as his increased BA helps him maintain roto value even with lower quantitative numbers.
July Overachiever: Robert Machado, C Previous Overachievers: April: Jose Hernandez, SS; May: Alex Sanchez, OF; June: Tyler Houston, 3B
Vlad only turned 26 this February, and he's continued his rather stunning speed development while posting a career-high in OBP and his second-best BA. More impressively, career-best marks of a 1.13 BB:K and .13 walk rate suggest he can sustain this improvement. He's even managed new levels with a 3.23 #P/PA and 1.14 G-F, indicating more patience and power potential than at any previous point in his career. Guerrero only needs five homers and twelve steals for his first 40-40 season, and I expect he'll reach that plateau no later than next season. With his skill trends pointing towards future improvement, fantasy players should only acquire Vlad as he'll continue providing significant help in every standard category.
July Overachiever: Andres Galarraga, 1B Previous Overachievers: April: Michael Barrett, C; May: Jose Vidro, 2B; June: Troy O'Leary, OF
He's receiving about two games worth of at-bats each week and has almost doubled his total time in the majors over the past four seasons; Tarasco hasn't even played in the majors since 1999. Now he's posting a power-speed combo that suggests he could emerge into a moderately useful roto asset if given slightly more playing time. Unfortunately all his skills reside below his career norms with the exception of his very solid .87 contact rate, and he'd likely be around a .200 BA if he was closer to his .83 average. The lack of Mets' prospects in the upper minors should allow Tarasaco semi-regular at-bats over the last few weeks of the season, so if you need a small power and speed boost from your 5th OF or UT, you can probably wait while riding out his hot streak.
July Overachiever: Jay Payton, OF Previous Overachievers: April: Edgardo Alfonzo, 3B; May: Timo Perez, OF; June: Vance Wilson, C
While a .233 BA will limit most people's opinion of Ledee, he's made surprising skill strides while remaining on pace to hit the second-most homers of his career. He's reached career-best marks with a .79 BB:K, .17 walk rate, 4.06 #P/PA, and .86 G-F, indicating strong potential for statistical growth over the next few years. I don't see him finding a greater role on the Phillies, but any decent outfielder with developing hitting ability could wind up in a platoon on a rebuilding team fairly easily. Rebuilding teams should look to acquire Ledee very cheaply as he might reach several dollars in a 2003 draft if he receives another chance to start elsewhere.
July Overachiever: Marlon Anderson, 2B Previous Overachievers: April: Jason Michaels, OF; May: Pat Burrell, OF; June: Todd Pratt, C
Although he owns the third highest OPS on Pittsburgh after Brian Giles and Adam Hyzdu, seven other Pirates have more at-bats, leaving Wilson unlikely to see much more playing time until Kevin Young departs to either another team or the DL. He's also shown little progress after a stunning 2001 debut in which he posted a .979 OPS, obviously much better than his current .809 OPS. Both his BB:K and walk rate have remained stable at the unacceptably low levels of .28 and .09 respectively. However he's also improved from a 3.61 #P/PA and 1.23 G-F to a 3.98 #P/PA and .95 G-F, and this added patience and power potential makes him a great target for rebuilding teams to acquire.
July Overachiever: Adam Hyzdu, OF Previous Overachievers: April: Jack Wilson, SS; May: Rob Mackowiak, UT; June: Brian Giles, OF
Considering the mass roster turnover of the Padres this year due to injury and ineffectiveness, Kotsay's lucky to remain in the lineup every day. He's also either set or seems likely to set several career-best marks in various statistical categories. Unfortunately his skills remain rather stagnant, and only a second year of improvement in his G-F, falling from 1.52 to 1.33 and now 1.12, indicates he might eventually reach twenty homers. His status as a mostly forgotten former prospect decreases his trade value in many leagues, so you should probably just wait as he'll likely at least meet most pre-season expectations.
July Overachiever: Ron Gant, OF Previous Overachievers: April: Sean Burroughs, 3B; May: Ryan Klesko, 1B/OF; June: Deivi Cruz, IF
Despite missing time with a bruised right middle finger, tightness in his right hamstring, and food poisoning, he's managed to avoid the DL this season. Perhaps he should rest more as his .09 walk rate is a career worst while none of his other skills appear fairly strong. He's still managing good speed numbers, maintaining his value despite the relatively painful BA. If you can afford to add that troublesome BA, Sanders makes an interesting target to acquire for power and speed help.
July Overachiever: Damon Minor, IF Previous Overachievers: April: David Bell, 3B; May: Benito Santiago, C; June: Marvin Benard, OF
Most of Edmonds' skills are superior to his career averages, but he's showing less overall patience and displays a .73 contact rate, somewhat below his .76 norm. We can't expect him to maintain a career-best without both a solid contact rate and good overall plate discipline, so his BA should begin falling back to .300 or worse, likely dragging down his power numbers to some extent. Unless you definitely need his power, explore any potential deal, as while he could continue producing, he's more likely to retract from his current pace.
July Overachiever: Mike DiFelice, C Previous Overachievers: April: Eli Marrero, C/OF; May: Fernando Vina, 2B; June: Albert Pujols, 3B/OF
Click
here to read the previous article.
Please e-mail your comments to
tim@rotohelp.com. |
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