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August 22nd 2002 |
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Your Daily Fantasy Rx |
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by Tim Polko
Arizona: Matt Mantei, RH Reliever Arizona's former and possibly future closer has continued improving as he returns from arm surgery. Mantei's major problem remains a terrible .67 G-F, and this awful ratio is even slightly higher than his career .63 average, reinforcing that we always should expect a homer rate over 1.0 from him. Fortunately his 3.2 K:BB is a career best, and his 10.0 K/9 is approaching his 11.7 average. I don't expect him to see any save opps this year, so while he's an interesting option in many leagues, contenders should only wait if desperate for saves.
July Underachiever: Brian Anderson, LH Starter Previous Underachievers: April: Rick Helling, RH Starter; May: Miguel Batista, RH Swingman; June: Greg Swindell, LH Reliever.
His current 5-start PQS of 45442 demonstrates he's back to dominating like usual. The most disappointing aspect of this year was his first-ever DL trip, and the lost IP will keep him from reaching the win totals in the high teens that we always expect. He's definitely experienced some skill loss this year, as his 2.6 K:BB indicates his worst command since 1990, and a 5.3 K/9 is his worst strikeout rate since 1989. However, Maddux has rebounded from a career-worst 1.84 G-F last season to return to a 2.48 G-F this year, almost at his 2.51 average. Although he turned 36 in April, his overall skills still look quite strong, making him one of the best targets in the game to acquire if you need qualitative statistical help.
July Underachiever: Tim Spooneybarger, RH Reliever Previous Underachievers: April: John Smoltz, RH Closer; May: Kevin Millwood, RH Starter; June: Albie Lopez, RH Swingman.
Instead of moving into the closer's role this year, the Cubs acquired Alfonseca and Farnsworth promptly broke his foot while warming up in the first week of the season. He pitched reasonably well in June and July, compiling a 23:10 K:BB in 25.2 IP with 24 H and 5 HR, and while these obviously don't match his great ratios of 3.7 K:BB or 11.7 K/9 from last season, only his homer rate is truly bad. Unfortunately he's lost seemingly all pitching ability this month, posting a 14.04 ERA on a 10:7 K:BB in 8.1 IP with 16 H and 2 HR allowed. His .95 G-F for the year is actually an improvement over a .74 from last season, so he's not generally allowing more flyballs. The Cubs' latest theory is that Farnsworth is tipping his pitches, but no one knows his tell thus far. Regardless of the reason, contenders should deal or reserve him until you see improvement in his K:BB and H/9, and most rebuilding teams should be happy to trade for him given his long-term saves upside.
July Underachiever: Antonio Alfonseca, RH Closer Previous Underachievers: April: Jason Bere, RH Starter; May: Jeff Fassero, LH Reliever; June: Jason Bere, RH Starter.
Chen's third team of the year finally has helped him regain some effectiveness, although he's maintained solid dominance and a decent hit rate throughout the year. Longballs are still his main problem, and with a .74 G-F scarcely above his .62 average, I don't expect his 1.9 homer rate to ever decrease substantially. I expect the Reds will work him back into the rotation next year, but he remains a mostly effective reliever for now, and certainly someone that you can wait to see if he'll find a larger role. However contenders should certainly explore potential trades as his future promise is much brighter than any 2002 upside.
July Underachiever: Ryan Dempster, RH Starter Previous Underachievers: April: Scott Williamson, RH Reliever; May: Joey Hamilton, RH Starter; June: Scott Sullivan, RH Reliever.
Chacon looked fairly impressive last year when posting a 1.5 K:BB, 7.5 K/9, and a 1.20 G-F that suggested his 1.5 HR/9 could decrease. Now while he's decreased his walk rate slightly this year to 4.5 BB/9 after a 4.9 last season, his strikeout rate has plummeted to 5.1 K/9, dragging his BB:K down to a terrible 1.1. Due to holding a hit rate around a 9.0, he's at least kept a stable ratio, and a G-F at 1.18 indicates his current 1.9 HR/9 will decrease. The likely effects of the loss of dominance are more troubling, and combined with his shaky rotation spot and the existing negatives of Coors, I just don't see him helping most any team. Deal or cut Chacon, and ignore him in the future unless his command returns and/or he changes teams.
July Underachiever: Todd Jones, RH Reliever Previous Underachievers: April: John Thomson, RH Starter; May: Denny Neagle, LH Starter; June: Mike Hampton, LH Starter.
Nunez's failing command has allowed Looper to steal the closer's job. He'd compiled a 48:24 K:BB with 52 hits allowed in 62 IP by the end of July before apparently losing his ability once Torborg gave Looper a few save opps at the end of August. Nunez has only managed to post a 4:5 K:BB with 12 H in 8 IP over the last three weeks, pitching horribly except for an occasional decent outing in middle relief. With his value depressed as low as we expect it to fall as long as he remains in the majors, deal or reserve him unless you can risk further qualitative damage.
July Underachiever: Julian Tavarez, RH Starter Previous Underachievers: April: Brad Penny, RH Starter; May: Josh Beckett, RH Starter; June: Braden Looper, RH Reliever.
One of the top pitching contenders for Rookie of the Year at the beginning of the season, Hernandez has battled command and injury problems the last couple of months. After going on the DL on July 2nd, he missed seven weeks with shoulder inflammation, making only two starts since his return. A long rain delay limited him to two uneventful innings in his first start, but he shut down the Cubs yesterday for a 5 PQS, and if he can regain his great control from the minors, he should continue developing into a solid starter. His 1.28 G-F should keep his homer rate around its current level, and while he'll struggle at times, now's a good time to acquire him, especially if you can bench him against very good offenses.
July Underachiever: Wade Miller, RH Starter Previous Underachievers: April: Billy Wagner, LH Closer; May: Scott Linebrink, RH Reliever; June: Tim Redding, RH Starter.
After averaging a 9.6 K/9 throughout his career and never falling below an 8.2, his current 7.2 K/9 isn't providing significant help to owners who in 5x5 leagues who expected over 200 K this year. With his walk rate holding a little over 4.0, his 1.7 K:BB is almost entirely attributable to his weakening dominance. His .90 G-F is only slightly worse than his .94 career rate, which helps maintain his 1.0 HR/9, and he's at least kept his hit rate at 7.9 H/9. Nomo's current 33435 five-start PQS log also demonstrates that he's at least avoiding disasters despite not often dominating. While he'll likely only win two or three more starts due to the failing Dodger offense and bullpen, he's a decent target to acquire, especially if you're below an IP minimum and need to add a couple dozen low-risk innings.
July Underachiever: Andy Ashby, RH Starter Previous Underachievers: April: Paul Quantrill, RH Reliever; May: Kevin Brown, RH Starter; June: Giovanni Carrara, RH Reliever.
Unlike three of his four seasons in Colorado, Wright's at least holding a K:BB over 1.0, albeit only at 1.1 K:BB. Surprisingly, his command, dominance, and hit rate are all superior to his career averages, although his career-worst 1.63 G-F supports an increase to 1.3 HR/9. Wright, like former teammate Jimmy Haynes, is paid primarily to eat innings, although also like Haynes, Wright has recently compiled several competent starts, including his current five-start PQS log of 23234. However Wright's weak skills keep him as one of the highest risk pitchers in all of baseball, so only teams with an excellent ERA and WHIP could add him for innings or a couple of wins. The rarity of a situation requiring Wright also means most owners should deal or cut him now that he's probably moving past this rare bout of effectiveness.
July Underachiever: Ruben Quevedo, RH Starter Previous Underachievers: April: Nick Neugebauer, RH Starter; May: Glendon Rusch, LH Starter; June: Ben Sheets, RH Starter.
In only two short seasons in the majors, this former St. Paul Saints' teammate of Darryl Strawberry and Jack Morris has posted a 3.34 ERA and 19 Saves on an excellent 96:31 K:BB in 99.2 IP with 82 H, 7 HR, and a 1.54 G-F. His major improvement this year was increasing his G-F from a mediocre 1.07 in 2001 to a very solid 2.23. The departures of Urbina and Strickland leave him as a closing option, but Frank Robinson's insistence on maximizing match-ups has limited his save opps even as he's pitched more effectively than any other Expos' reliever. While this approach likely enables Montreal to win more games than by leaving Stewart as a full-time closer, his skills rank with Eddie Guardado, indicating that he's primed for a huge jump in value if a new manager lets him close regularly. Montreal finishes playing in tough ballparks as of today's game in Colorado, leaving Stewart as an extremely good target to acquire in any league.
July Underachiever: Tony Armas, Jr., RH Starter Previous Underachievers: April: Britt Reames, RH Reliever; May: Javier Vazquez, RH Starter; June: Matt Herges, RH Reliever.
The vaunted pre-season upgrades to the Mets' offense have left their ace with 3.83 runs per game, the fifth worst support among 93 starters in the majors; former and current teammates Shawn Estes and Jeff D'Amico receive the least support of anyone. Leiter has almost identical ratios across the board to his 2001 season and yet he might again fail to even reach a dozen wins or break .500. He turns thirty-seven in October and remains a health risk, but the Mets wisely re-signed one of the top few lefties in the game. Even if he won't help much in wins, his qualitative numbers rank with the best pitchers in the league, so acquire him where available, especially considering the promise of his current 53345 five-start PQS log.
July Underachiever: Scott Strickland, RH Reliever
Previous Underachievers: April: Kane Davis, RH Reliever; May: Shawn Estes, LH Starter;
June: Jeff D'Amico, RH Starter. A former closer-of-the-future-turned-starter, Adams' starting struggles and developing injury problems have forced him back to middle relief. The only impressive ratio he's posted this year is a .6 HR/9, fully supported by a 2.81 G-F; Adams has never posted a G-F below last year's 2.29, thereby keeping his career rate at the same .6 HR/9. He's likely somewhat burnt out after doubling his innings pitched between 2000 and 2001, so the return to middle relief should help rest his arm. Unfortunately he's demonstrating even less command in relief, compiling a 9:7 K:BB in 15.2 IP, leaving him as someone to deal due to his overall weak skills.
July Underachiever: Robert Person, RH Starter Previous Underachievers: April: Randy Wolf, LH Starter; May: Brandon Duckworth, RH Starter; June: Rheal Cormier, LH Reliever.
Sauerbeck cut his walk rate from 5.7 BB/9 to 4.0 BB/9 while increasing his strikeout rate from 10.5 to 11.3 K/9, elevating his command from an average 2.0 K:BB to a very good 2.6. He's also fixed a worrisome drop in his G-F, as after two years of a 2.37 G-F, it fell to 1.40 last year before returning to a more acceptable 1.89 this season. As he's dominated most opponents, I'm rather surprised he hasn't found a single save or more than three wins. Now Pittsburgh's usage of him primarily as a lefty specialist obviously reduces his opportunities, but he only has a total of 19 combined wins and saves throughout his four-year career; most decent middle relievers can manage that total in two years, but Sauerbeck just doesn't see the appropriate opportunities. His role keeps his roto value somewhat limited, although you should never hesitate to acquire him wherever you need low-risk roster filler or ERA/WHIP help now that his command's solid.
July Underachiever: Josias Manzanillo, RH Reliever Previous Underachievers: April: Sean Lowe, RH Reliever; May: Ron Villone, LH Swingman; June: Kris Benson, RH Starter.
Lawrence hasn't truly underachieved, although he'd have a few more wins if given more support. His skills are all solid, including excellent ratios of 3.0 K:BB, .6 HR/9, and 2.41 G-F, but a better defense would help lower his 9.3 hit rate. He's capable of posting a 3.00 ERA and 1.10 WHIP fairly easily, adding another several bucks to his already impressive value, and a current PQS log of 45432 indicates some consistency and good potential. Unfortunately he stops facing weak offenses after this weekend in Florida. He spends the next two weeks playing home-and-away series against Houston and Colorado before finishing the last three weeks against Arizona, San Francisco, and Los Angeles, all teams needing to win to make the playoffs. If you can extort a rebuilding team for a top starter and help elsewhere, consider a deal of Lawrence.
July Underachiever: Tom Davey, RH Reliever Previous Underachievers: April: Brian Tollberg, RH Starter; May: Jason Middlebrook, RH Swingman; June: Jeremy Fikac, RH Reliever.
Livan continues to defy everyone predicting injury due to overwork, but he's lost much of his roto value as his wins drop despite a supporting offense driven by historically great seasons from Bonds and a middle infielder in each of the last three years. Some combination of Ainsworth, Foppert, and Jerome Williams from the Giants' prospect-laden AAA team should force a starter or two from San Francisco within the next year, and Livan appears most likely to depart the rotation. His skills have severely slipped since two fairly solid seasons in 1999 and 2000, and only a .8 HR/9, supported by a 1.39 G-F, is reasonably acceptable. I don't expect he can build upon his current 5-start PQS log of 23335 considering his inconsistency throughout the season. Pitchers who show little command or dominance while continually posting high hit rates rapidly lose roto value, and along with a potentially damaging September schedule, now is a good time to deal or cut Hernandez.
July Underachiever: Russ Ortiz, RH Starter Previous Underachievers: April: Aaron Fultz, LH Reliever; May: Jason Schmidt, RH Starter; June: Felix Rodriguez, RH Reliever.
After he opened the season with a 00000 PQS log, I'm rather shocked that he returned from the edge of retirement to post his current 35335 stretch. He's stuck at three wins due to the second worst run support among St. Louis' many starters. Benes still suffers from skill deficiencies, including a career-worst .74 G-F that indicates a pending rise of his 1.2 HR/9. A 5.1 BB/9 also is quite poor, but since returning after the break, he's compiled a 37:18 K:BB in 41.1 IP with only 24 H and 4 homers allowed. These are fantastic stats for any pitcher, and despite my reservations over his disastrous opening to the year, anyone willing to risk another disaster could find a gem if they acquire Benes.
July Underachiever: Travis Smith, RH Starter Previous Underachievers: April: Bud Smith, LH Starter; May: Garrett Stephenson, RH Starter; June: Steve Kline, LH Reliever
Thanks to a mostly disastrous week in DC due to the Lawrence and Halladay blowups, our IC team is now doing better than our DC teams for the first time in months. Losing Pedro's start yesterday also hurt a lot here, but at least he gives us another quality option this weekend. We're relatively satisfied with our starting pitching here and see no need to Boyd Lawrence or add a Perez or Millwood. As saves are now our strongest pitching category, likely due to our continued usage of Gagne, we're going to add Scott Stewart for cap relief as one of our call-ups. He hasn't pitched much lately but he shouldn't hurt our ERA or WHIP and should grab at least two or three saves. For our second call-up, we want an offensive player and we're debating between Nomar and Aaron Boone. Our decision to add Pierzynski for Hall cost us the FA move we'd originally planned for Nomar, and Rollins' recent surge has left him equally valuable. Boyding Hall is somewhat tempting to give us more cap flexibility, but we need someone to make a more significant contribution after using one move on Stewart, primarily for cap relief from Kim. As we're in the top 60 in steals, we'd rather add someone more likely to help in HR and RBI, our two weakest categories. Boone's BA could hurt, but so could running without a C, 2B, or 3B backup, leaving us vulnerable with only one move left. Their schedules are fairly equal as Cincy plays one more game, and facing Houston, St. Louis, Milwaukee, Pittsburgh, the Cubs, Philly, and Montreal is roughly as difficult as a schedule of Anaheim, the Yankees, Cleveland, Toronto, Tampa Bay, Baltimore, and the White Sox. Boston fields a better lineup, helping more with RBI and Runs, and not owning Nomar has obviously hurt our power. He's tied with ARod as the 4th most owned offensive player, with only Soriano, Ichiro, and Dunn on more teams, and only Randy, Schilling, Oswalt, and Eddie G owned on more teams overall. Aaron Boone's currently owned by 891 less teams, although that number will increase today. Despite the $370 and the position flexibility favoring Boone, we don't believe that the added steals overcome the overall weaker skills; Nomar will join our team.
No starts: Schilling, Oswalt, and Halladay.
Byung-Hyun Kim: 3 Home games vs. Chicago Cubs. Kim needs to sit whenever we run more than one of the aces, and with Pedro and Randy necessarily deployed, Stewart goes immediately. We don't particularly trust Mussina, Clemens, or Vazquez right now, and since we like Morris, Zito, Wood, and Gagne, we're comfortable with our rotation. The partially-injured Sosa will sit along with Vlad on the road. We don't even have cap room to run Bonds, Jason Giambi, or Klesko at home if we want to keep all our Rockies active, which we desire with the recent surges by Pierre and Uribe. As Larry Walker has sat the last two days, we're also hoping he'll play at least two games this weekend, especially as they face the desperately struggling Mets. J.D. Drew stays on our bench, and we're going to finally bench Adam Dunn due to his apparent tiring. Torii Hunter in Kansas City and Jimmy Rollins in St. Louis appear better bets at the moment, so we'll risk the Dunn rebound here; at least he'll help us in DC if he does well.
C Jorge Posada 990 C A.J. Pierzynski 460 1B Todd Helton 1980 1B Paul Konerko 1220 2B Luis Castillo 1000 2B Alfonso Soriano 900 3B Eric Chavez 1070 3B Shea Hillenbrand 450 SS Alex Rodriguez 1880 SS Nomar Garciaparra 1120 OF Larry Walker 1530 OF Ichiro Suzuki 1330 OF Lance Berkman 1320 OF Juan Pierre 1180 OF Torii Hunter 830 OF Daryle Ward 620 DH Jimmy Rollins 940 DH Juan Uribe 500
SP Randy Johnson 1990 SP Pedro Martinez 1770 SP Matt Morris 1190 SP Barry Zito 1080 SP Kerry Wood 1050 SP Eric Gagne 500 RP Mike Williams 900 RP Eddie Guardado 900 RP Jorge Julio 750 RP Scott Stewart 490
Click
here to read the previous article.
Please e-mail your comments to
tim@rotohelp.com. |
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