Today's Fantasy Rx

Anaheim: Brendan Donnelly, RH Reliever
0-1 on 32:8 K:BB in 28.2 IP over 25 G with 18 H, 0 HR, and a 2.83 ERA.

Every year a few rookies finally get a chance to pitch in the majors and immediately establish themselves as reliable relievers, destroying any argument for paying more than the minimum to anyone besides the top couple of dozen bullpen arms. Donnelly's 2001 MLEs of a 7.7 K/9, 2.1 K:BB, and .8 HR/9 suggested a pitcher with intriguing upside, but I doubt anyone expected he'd emerge as the Angels' best middle reliever. As all his primary skill ratios are fantastic, especially his 4.0 K:BB and 10.0 K/9, he should be able to maintain approximately his current pace. The one looming problem is a 1.00 G-F, which indicates he should start allowing some homers in the near future. Even though Donnelly owns the best skills on the Angels and his WHIP is .31 lower than Troy Percival, he's barely holding the fourth best ERA on the team, so the overall strength of Anaheim's pen will help keep everyone's ERAs low. I'm happy to continue suggesting you acquire Donnelly, as he may be the second-best almost completely unknown AL bullpen stud after Chad Bradford.

July Underachiever: Kevin Appier, RH Starter
Old stats: 8-8 on 78:35 K:BB in 114 IP over 20 GS with 129 H, 14 HR, and a 4.50 ERA.
Recommendation: wait..
Stats since recommendation: 3-1 on 22:14 K:BB in 32.2 IP over 5 GS with 21 H, 2 HR, and a 2.20 ERA.

Previous Underachievers: April: Scott Schoeneweis, LH Starter; May: Troy Percival, RH Closer; June: Aaron Sele, RH Starter.

Baltimore: John Stephens, RH Starter
1-2 on 19:3 K:BB in 23 IP over 4 GS with 29 H, 4 HR, and a 7.04 ERA.

Injuries to other Baltimore starters have enabled him to remain in the rotation despite allowing 10 earned runs over three innings in Tampa Bay in his debut. After that disaster, he's posted three straight 5 PQS scores, for a superb 18:2 K:BB in 20 IP with 19 H and 1 HR allowed, numbers any pitcher should be proud to own. Now a .87 G-F suggests he'll continue experiencing homer problems, but as long as his skills are solid, even mild ERA trouble won't overcome his upside in WHIP, strikeouts, and even wins. I've touted him all year, and he's fulfilled most of my expectations thus far, making him an ideal target to acquire for rebuilding teams and even some contenders willing to take a medium risk.

July Underachiever: Buddy Groom, LH Reliever
Old stats: 2-2 on 27:10 K:BB in 39.1 IP over 46 G with 23 H, 3 HR, and a 2.06 ERA.
Recommendation: wait.
Stats since recommendation: 1-0 on 9:1 K:BB in 10.2 IP over 11 G with 10 H, 0 HR, and a 0.00 ERA.

Previous Underachievers: April: B.J. Ryan, LH Specialist; May: Jason Johnson, RH Starter; June: Sidney Ponson, RH Starter.

Boston: Casey Fossum, LH Starter
2-2 on 55:19 K:BB in 68.2 IP over 4 GS(35G) with 71 H, 7 HR, and a 3.15 ERA.

Boston's giving him over a run per game less of support than their other current starters, so he's likely due for a couple more wins in the near future as he should receive the benefits of their attack at some point this season. Since his recall into the Red Sox's rotation, he's compiled an 18:7 K:BB in 22.2 IP with 25 H and 2 homers for a promising 3533 PQS log. I expect Boston to give him every chance to succeed through at least next season as homegrown left-handed starters are quite valuable. He should succeed as long as they carefully monitor his workload, so he won't pitch past the sixth inning in many games. With a 1.20 G-F also supporting his current homer rate, look to acquire Fossum if you need pitching help, especially knowing his wins should start increasing very soon.

July Underachiever: Sun-Woo Kim, RH Swingman
Old stats: 2-0 on 18:7 K:BB in 29 IP over 15 G(2GS) with 34 H, 5 HR, and a 7.45 ERA.
Recommendation: deal or cut.
Stats since recommendation: No stats as Boston demoted Kim before dealing him to Montreal.

Previous Underachievers: April: Rich Garces, RH Setup; May: Frank Castillo, RH Starter; June: John Burkett, RH Starter.

Chicago White Sox: Kelly Wunsch, LH Reliever
2-1 on 13:14 K:BB in 21.2 IP over 38 G with 20 H, 1 HR, and a 4.15 ERA.

He excelled in a specialist role in 2000, and Jerry Manuel has at least similarly limited his work after pitching in 83 games that season shredded his arm. Wunsch's skills from last season look better overall than his current ratios aside from a reduction in his homer rate from 1.6 to .4 HR/9, a number more commensurate with his 2.84 career G-F. However few relievers can succeed with a sub-1.0 K:BB, and even solid supporting ratios can't compensate for terrible command. Deal or cut Wunsch now before his excess baserunners force an ERA rise.

July Underachiever: Jon Garland, RH Starter
Old stats: 8-7 on 57:48 K:BB in 114.1 IP over 20 GS with 120 H, 14 HR, and a 5.12 ERA.
Recommendation: deal.
Stats since recommendation: 0-2 on 20:15 K:BB in 26.2 IP over 5 GS with 25 H, 4 HR, and a 4.73 ERA.

Previous Underachievers: April: Antonio Osuna, RH Middle Reliever; May: Keith Foulke, RH Closer; June: Todd Ritchie, RH Starter.

Cleveland: Jerrod Riggan, RH Reliever
1-1 on 15:12 K:BB in 22 IP over 20 G with 35 H, 3 HR, and a 6.96 ERA.

A solid season until now would have left Riggan as the logical choice to close in Cleveland. After demonstrating borderline closer-caliber skills last season, he only managed three weeks in April on the roster before a demotion, and after a recall on June 13th, returned to Buffalo on July 6th for another five-week stay. Now he's back due to another round of injuries, and he has nothing left to prove in AAA after posting a 2.38 ERA on 37:11 K:BB in 45.1 IP over 40 G with 12 H and 3 homers allowed. A 1.25 G-F is the best ratio of his career, although his poor command and hit rate prevent me from a complete endorsement. Wait to see if his AAA skills will translate to major league effectiveness if you already own him, and although contenders should ignore Riggan, rebuilding teams should consider a low FAAB bid.

July Underachiever: Danys Baez, RH Starter
Old stats: 8-7 on 96:61 K:BB in 116.2 IP over 20 GS with 108 H, 7 HR, and a 4.17 ERA.
Recommendation: wait.
Stats since recommendation: 1-3 on 18:13 K:BB in 30.1 IP over 5 GS with 38 H, 5 HR, and a 5.64 ERA.

Previous Underachievers: April: Chuck Finley, LH Starter; May: C.C. Sabathia, LH Starter; June: Bob Wickman, RH Closer.

Detroit: Adam Bernero, RH Swingman
3-7 on 51:27 K:BB in 78.1 IP over 11 GS(18G) with 95 H, 12 HR, and a 5.97 ERA.

After posting very impressive minor league skills in 2000 that led to a few starts in the majors, Bernero is now in his second year on the Detroit-Toledo shuttle, and while he continues to dominate in AAA, he's failed to see much success with the Tigers thus far. However a 1.9 K:BB and 5.9 K/9 are almost acceptable, and a 1.11 G-F, even if much lower than his 1.59 average from the last two seasons, gives us some hope that he can hold a homer rate below his current 1.4 HR/9. The remaining problem is his hits, and a porous Tiger defense rated fourth worst in the majors is largely responsible, especially since Bernero's only exceed a hit per inning in one of his four minor league seasons. Moving to the bullpen should allow him to maximize his potential, but early returns of a 2.57 ERA on 9:5 K:BB in 14 IP with 19 hits aren't overly impressive. Due to his relative soft-tossing, his best chance for success is likely as a fourth or fifth starter, so while rebuilding teams can wait to see if he'll continue developing, contenders should cut him in favor of someone currently displaying greater skill consistency.

July Underachiever: Jeff Farnsworth, RH Rule 5 Pick
Old stats: 2-2 on 16:15 K:BB in 41 IP over 25 G with 55 H, 5 HR, and a 6.37 ERA.
Recommendation: deal or cut.
Stats since recommendation: 0-1 on 5:6 K:BB in 7.1 IP over 7 G with 17 H, 0 HR, and a 4.91 ERA.

Previous Underachievers: April: Mark Redman, LH Starter; May: Jose Paniagua, RH Reliever; June: Steve Sparks, RH Starter.

Kansas City: Darrell May, LH Swingman
3-8 on 69:40 K:BB in 94.1 IP over 16 GS(23G) with 106 H, 20 HR, and a 5.25 ERA.

Instead of fulfilling scouts' expectations of an effective return to the majors after a few years in foreign leagues, May has instead provided another solid argument for why the Japanese Leagues are not equivalent to the majors. May apparently hasn't developed in the five years since he last pitched in the majors, since his current skill ratios of 1.7 K:BB, 6.6 K/9, and 1.9 HR/9 look suspiciously similar to his 1997 ratios of 1.7 K:BB, 7.3 K/9, and 1.0 HR/9. A .72 G-F largely explains his horrible homer rate, and as he's only dominated in a quarter of his starts, I expect he'll remain in the bullpen for most of his stay with the Royals. That homer rate makes him nearly unownable at the moment, so deal or cut May at your first opportunity.

July Underachiever: Jeff Suppan, RH Starter
Old stats: 8-8 on 70:36 K:BB in 139.1 IP over 21 GS with 147 H, 23 HR, and a 5.17 ERA.
Recommendation: deal.
Stats since recommendation: 0-5 on 26:14 K:BB in 30.1 IP over 6 GS with 39 H, 6 HR, and a 5.93 ERA.

Previous Underachievers: April: Cory Bailey, RH Setup; May: Jason Grimsley, RH Setup; June: Roberto Hernandez, RH Closer.

Minnesota: Joe Mays, RH Starter
2-4 on 21:14 K:BB in 51.2 IP over 9 GS with 61 H, 7 HR, and a 5.92 ERA.

Fortunately Minnesota's succeeded despite no contribution from Mays, and his injury problems only reinforce the franchise's incorrect decision in spending more money on a long-term deal for Mays than Mark Prior received as the second pick in last year's draft. While he's managed a mediocre 323244 PQS log after returning from a strained right forearm, he's compiled these very poor skill ratios after a breakout season in which he only managed a 1.9 K:BB and 4.7 K/9. I harbor doubts as to his possibility for improvement despite two very solid outings, so you should only wait on Mays if you need wins or innings, since even if his injury caused his skill weakness, his upside likely isn't worth the qualitative risk for contenders.

July Underachiever: Kyle Lohse, RH Starter
Old stats: 9-5 on 71:43 K:BB in 120.2 IP over 20 GS with 123 H, 12 HR, and a 4.80 ERA.
Recommendation: wait.
Stats since recommendation: 2-2 on 24:17 K:BB in 31.2 IP over 6 GS with 34 H, 8 HR, and a 2.56 ERA.

Previous Underachievers: April: Brad Radke, RH Starter; May: Eric Milton, LH Starter; June: Rick Reed, RH Starter.

New York Yankees: Jeff Weaver, RH Swingman
7-10 on 108:43 K:BB in 167 IP over 22 GS(25G) with 163 H, 14 HR, and a 3.83 ERA.

Trading for Weaver currently looks like a relatively awful move, but his only major skill deficiency this season, either before or after joining the Yankees, is a ridiculously high 3.1 HR/9 in Yankee Stadium; he's averaging a .4 HR/9 in every other stadium in which he's pitched. Weaver's homer rate has steadily dropped from 1.5 in 1999 to 1.2 in 2000 and then .7 last season despite a G-F ratios of 1.20, 1.51, and 1.51 over the same respective time period. His G-F with New York is .89 after he posted a 1.42 with Detroit, so the combination of a dramatic increase in flyballs and Yankee Stadium's somewhat cozy dimensions quickly ratcheted up his ERA. While he could struggle if reinserted into the rotation, I suspect he'll succeed in first the bullpen and then an eventual return to starting, making him a good target for anyone to acquire, and an excellent option for rebuilding teams.

July Underachiever: Mike Mussina, RH Starter
Old stats: 12-4 on 103:28 K:BB in 127 IP over 20 GS with 119 H, 19 HR, and a 4.40 ERA.
Recommendation: acquire.
Stats since recommendation: 3-2 on 17:5 K:BB in 31 IP over 5 GS with 50 H, 3 HR, and a 6.68 ERA.

Previous Underachievers: April: Roger Clemens, RH Hall of Fame Starter; May: Orlando Hernandez, RH Starter; June: Sterling Hitchcock, LH Swingman.

Oakland: Jim Mecir, RH Reliever
3-3 on 46:23 K:BB in 57.1 IP over 49 G with 59 H, 4 HR, and a 4.55 ERA.

After two years as one of the top middle relievers in both MLB and roto, Mecir's lost value as the questionable Oakland defense helped his hit rate rise from a 7.5 H/9 over the last two seasons to 9.3 this year. All his other skills are very close to his norm, and even a strikeout rate decrease to 7.2 K/9 after an 8.7 in 2001 just leaves him closer to his career average. There's really no reason for him to continue posting an ERA over 4.00, so expect a very strong finish to the year. He could likely help a contender in almost any league setup, so look to acquire him where available.

July Underachiever: Tim Hudson, RH Starter
Old stats: 7-8 on 93:50 K:BB in 143 IP over 21 GS with 143 H, 13 HR, and a 3.34 ERA.
Recommendation: acquire.
Stats since recommendation: 3-1 on 26:4 K:BB in 42.2 IP over 6 GS with 43 H, 3 HR, and a 2.95 ERA.

Previous Underachievers: April: Jeff Tam, RH Setup; May: Billy Koch, RH Closer; June: Cory Lidle, RH Starter.

Seattle: Ryan Franklin, RH Swingman
4-3 on 40:15 K:BB in 73.1 IP over 33 G(5GS) with 73 H, 12 HR, and a 4.54 ERA.

I don't see many healthy underachievers left here, but Franklin's providing less quantitative help than most other Mariners. Of all Seattle pitchers with more than twelve appearances, only Franklin and Jeff Nelson have as few as four combined wins and saves, giving them comparatively less value than other relievers with less outright skill. He's supposed to continue starting with James Baldwin in the bullpen, a decision that likely hurts the team by placing two pitchers in unfamiliar roles. Franklin's 33011 PQS log this year suggests he'll flounder while starting, placing even his meager qualitative statistical contribution at risk. Explore a potential deal if any owner believes in the upside of all Seattle starters.

July Underachiever: James Baldwin, RH Starter
Old stats: 6-6 on 67:34 K:BB in 116 IP over 19 GS with 129 H, 17 HR, and a 4.42 ERA.
Recommendation: acquire.
Stats since recommendation: 1-3 on 12:9 K:BB in 23.1 IP over 4 GS(5G) with 36 H, 7 HR, and an 8.49 ERA.

Previous Underachievers: April: Paul Abbott, RH Starter; May: Freddy Garcia, RH Starter; June: Rafael Soriano, RH Starter.

Tampa Bay: Travis Phelps, RH Reliever
0-2 on 21:18 K:BB in 21.1 IP over 17 G with 17 H, 6 HR, and a 5.91 ERA.

Tampa owns the only ya(w)ning closer hole in the majors as only Travis Harper, Phelps, and Wilson Alvarez have contributed positively from the bullpen this year. While we liked Phelps as their next closer at the beginning of the year after he compiled a 54:24 K:BB in 62 IP with 53 H and 6 HR last season, his skills have largely disappearing in the majors even as he posted solid ratios during a ten-week minor league trip from mid-April through late June. Unfortunately even his G-F has fallen from a 1.00 in 2001 to a .52 this season, and combined with his terrible WHIP and command problems, there's no reason to deploy Phelps. Only wait if rebuilding, and teams with any better option should certainly consider cutting him.

July Underachiever: Tanyon Sturtze, RH Starter
Old stats: 1-10 on 85:60 K:BB in 139.2 IP over 21 GS with 169 H, 19 HR, and a 4.77 ERA.
Recommendation: deal or even cut.
Stats since recommendation: 1-3 on 24:19 K:BB in 33 IP over 5 GS with 36 H, 5 HR, and a 6.82 ERA.

Previous Underachievers: April: Jesus Colome, RH Reliever; May: Ryan Rupe, RH Starter; June: Esteban Yan, RH Closer.

Texas: Chan Ho Park, RH Starter
4-6 on 74:49 K:BB in 92 IP over 17 GS with 99 H, 14 HR, and a 7.14 ERA.

He's supposedly scheduled to return from his second DL trip in time for a weekend start, but Park just doesn't appear ready to return to action. After missing most of the first six weeks of the season with a strained right hamstring, he returned to post his worst overall numbers in any season in the majors. Even when healthy, Park failed to post a 5 PQS even once in sixteen starts so far, and he's only dominated at all in less than a third of his appearances. Fortunately only two of these starts were disasters, so he at least has some foundation upon which to build when he returns. Contenders simply can't risk further qualitative damage by owning him, but rebuilding teams might want to wait as we really like his 2003 upside.

July Underachiever: Todd Van Poppel, RH Reliever
Old stats: 1-0 on 38:16 K:BB in 44.2 IP over 32 G with 50 H, 4 HR, and a 4.43 ERA.
Recommendation: deal or cut.
Stats since recommendation: 0-0 on 16:7 K:BB in 10.1 IP over 7 G with 17 H, 6 HR, and a 10.45 ERA.

Previous Underachievers: April: Rudy Seanez, RH Reliever; May: Dave Burba, RH Starter; June: Rob Bell, RH Starter.

Toronto: Esteban Loiaza, RH Starter
5-7 on 67:27 K:BB in 103.2 IP over 18 GS with 135 H, 12 HR, and a 5.56 ERA.

Pitching in front of the second worst defense in the majors definitely doesn't help Loiaza's hit rate as he's allowing a hit more per game than even his unacceptable 10.8 average H/9 over the last two seasons. Both his command and dominance are fairly solid, and a 1.39 G-F is next to his 1.42 career average. More importantly, a current 5-start PQS log of 33430 suggests additional upside, but since Ricciardi appears unable or unwilling to move his veteran free agents, we'll have to wait to next year to see if Loiaza can rebound on a better team. Deal Loiaza if another team will even move an otherwise similar pitcher on a stronger defensive team.

July Underachiever: Chris Carpenter, RH Starter
Old stats: 4-1 on 30:17 K:BB in 49.1 IP over 9 GS with 69 H, 8 HR, and a 4.74 ERA.
Recommendation: deal.
Stats since recommendation: 0-4 on 15:10 K:BB in 24 IP over 4 GS with 20 H, 3 HR, and a 6.38 ERA before hitting the DL for the third time this season..

Previous Underachievers: April: Luke Prokopec, RH Starter; May: Kelvim Escobar, RH Closer; June: Justin Miller, RH Starter.

Today's Fantasy Rx: You hear this from many sources every year, but starters on weaker teams will begin sitting more regularly as teams explore potentially superior options for the future. Consider diversifying where possible if you're counting upon production from veteran i.e. older Devil Rays, Orioles, Tigers, Royals, Rangers, Pirates, Rockies, and Padres, as the other non-contenders seem either content to play their best lineups regardless of player development or don't have many prospects to insert into the lineup.