Today's Fantasy Rx

Note: The beginning of most stat lines includes data for H/AB for BA/OBP/SLG.

Anaheim: Troy Glaus, 3B
108/438 for .247/.350/.438 with 21 HR, 82 RBI, 75 R, 6/9 SB%, and 68:114 BB:K.

While Anaheim's run to challenge the Mariners and A's has stunned many, no one expected they'd perform nearly this well with only these limited contributions from Troy Glaus. His OPS is down over 100 points from last season and over 200 points from 2000, however his .19 walk rate is up from his .16 career mark while his BB:K holds at just under .60, and even his contact rate is slightly up at .74. Glaus' problems may be the result of a 3.99 #P/PA and .96 G-F, each the worst mark of his career. These ratios at least partially explain how he's maintained his BA and OBP while suffering a SLG drop from .604 in 2000 to .531 last year and .438 this season. I don't see why his numbers won't rebound in the near future, so seek to acquire Glaus while his value is low.

July Underachiever: Scott Spiezio, 1B
Old stats: 76/277 for .274/.371/.419 with 5 HR, 45 RBI, 44 R, 4/7 SB%, and 42:37 BB:K.
Recommendation: acquire.
Stats since recommendation: 22/70 for .315 with 2 HR, 11 RBI, 10 R, 1/3 SB%, and 9:4 BB:K.

Previous Underachievers: April: Tim Salmon, OF; May: Brad Fullmer, DH; June: Darin Erstad, OF

Baltimore: Tony Batista, 3B
117/457 for .256/.318/.475 with 22 HR, 67 RBI, 72 R, 5/8 SB%, and 36:76 BB:K.

Batista's seemingly slumped since his selection to the All-Star team, but despite his reduced power production, his skills remain comparatively impressive. A .08 walk rate and .47 BB:K, while objectively poor, are both nicely above his career marks. Even his .83 contact rate is improved, and a .47 G-F is surprisingly the best career mark from a notorious flyball pitcher. There's little reason why he couldn't exceed his stat line from 2000 if given the equivalent opportunities for runs and RBI, making him a nice target to acquire.

July Underachiever: David Segui, 1B/DH
Old stats: 25/95 for .263/.336/.368 for 2 HR, 16 RBI, 10 R, 0/0 SB%, and 11:22 BB:K before hitting the DL.
Recommendation: deal or cut.
Stats since recommendation: No stats as he's still on the DL.

Previous Underachievers: April: Chris Singleton, OF; May: Mike Bordick, SS; June: Brook Fordyce, C

Boston: Johnny Damon, OF
135/469 for .288/.358/.446 with 10 HR, 56 RBI, 93 R, 26/31 SB%, and 50:50 BB:K.

While he's done a great job of opening Boston's offensive attack, we expected a career year from him instead of just an all-around solid season. Few of his stats or skills compare favorably with his last two years in Kansas City, and Damon may not develop further. Fortunately his 1.00 BB:K, .11 walk rate, and 84% stolen base rate allow him to retain considerable value, so you can at least wait as he should continue at his current pace.

July Underachiever: Manny Ramirez, OF
Old stats: 66/199 for .332/.455/.598 with 14 HR, 47 RBI, 39 R, 0/0 SB%, and 41:36 BB:K.
Recommendation: deal.
Stats since recommendation: 29/97 for .299 with 6 HR, 16 RBI, 16 R, 0/0 SB%, and 12:23 BB:K.

Previous Underachievers: April: Trot Nixon, OF; May: Tony Clark, 1B; June: Rickey Henderson, OF/DH

Chicago White Sox: Jeff Liefer, UT
25/123 for .203/.256/.301 with 3 HR, 11 RBI, 13 R, 0/0 SB%, and 9:33 BB:K.

Both his lack of playing time and production surprise us as we thought the Sox might look to trade Thomas, Konerko, or Carlos Lee to open up playing time for Liefer's left-handed power. However aside from his impressive display last season of 18 homers in 254 at-bats, his skills appear virtually unchanged over the three seasons in which he's spent significant time in the majors. The one glaring problem that accounts for his current difficulties is a 1.39 G-F, an unfortunate rise from 2001's .86. Despite Jerry Manuel's repeated pronouncements about trying to find more playing time for Liefer, I don't expect him to see a noticeable improvement in either the quantity or quality of his at-bats as long he remains with the Sox. Contenders should certainly look to deal Liefer to rebuilding teams looking for a lottery ticket.

July Underachiever: Frank Thomas, DH
Old stats: 82/335 for .245/.342/.436 with 14 HR, 58 RBI, 44 R, 2/2 SB%, and 49:75 BB:K.
Recommendation: wait.
Stats since recommendation: 15/77 for .195 with 6 HR, 13 RBI, 9 R, 0/0 SB%, and 16:14 BB:K.

Previous Underachievers: April: Carlos Lee, OF; May: Royce Clayton, SS; June: Ray Durham, 2B

Cleveland: Travis Fryman, 3B
72/337 for .217/.301/.340 with 9 HR, 44 RBI, 37 R, 0/0 SB%, and 38:64 BB:K.

We keep hearing rumors about possible retirement for the perennially injured 33-year-old, and two straight years with a sub-.650 OPS certainly suggest a fairly severe decline in skill from someone who formerly posted a relatively consistent OPS around .800. He's only spent two weeks on the DL this year but has battled various maladies throughout the year, including a strained left groin, right bicep tendinitis, lower back spasms, and the sore right shoulder that finally forced him out of action. At least he's maintaining much of his batting skill as his .59 BB:K, .11 walk rate, and 4.13 #P/PA are all above his career averages. The causes of his decrease in production are a .79 contact rate, somewhat weaker than normal, and a 1.36 G-F, the worst mark of his career by .24 higher than last year and a continuation of a troublesome three-year trend. With limited power potential and BA worries, we'd trade Fryman if possible, although if you wait, you might be rewarded with a strong stretch run as the Indians attempt to steal second from the White Sox.

July Underachiever: Matt Lawton, OF
Old stats: 71/293 for .242/.351/.410 with 10 HR, 37 RBI, 53 R, 5/13 SB%, and 45:19 BB:K.
Recommendation: acquire.
Stats since recommendation: 19/85 for .224 with 2 HR, 11 RBI, 12 R, 2/3 SB%, and 8:9 BB:K.

Previous Underachievers: April: Ricky Gutierrez, 2B; May: Brady Anderson, OF; June: Einar Diaz, C

Detroit: Bobby Higginson, OF
99/343 for .289/.357/.431 with 8 HR, 51 RBI, 40 R, 11/16 SB%, and 35:32 BB:K.

He's likely spending his last year as a Tiger as Detroit looks to work inexpensive younger players into the lineup. Although a 1.09 BB:K is a very strong ratio, his .10 walk rate is a sharp downturn from someone who normally averages almost a .14 walk rate. A .91 contact rate is at least significantly above his .83 average, suggesting a potential BA surge next season. However he may just be swinging at more pitches as his 3.57 #P/PA is .27 #P/PA less than his next worse season, and his .81 G-F is the second straight year he's displayed less power potential than the previous season. Higginson could easily return to $30 value next year in a good hitters' park or even with just an enlightened hitting coach; unfortunately 2002 contenders should probably look to deal him in an attempt to bolster other areas of their teams.

July Underachiever: Damion Easley, 2B
Old stats: 29/144 for .201/.314/.326 with 4 HR, 13 RBI, 13 R, 1/1 SB%, and 16:18 BB:K.
Recommendation: acquire.
Stats since recommendation: 15/66 for .227 with 2 HR, 8 RBI, 11 R, 0/1 SB%, and 7:14 BB:K.

Previous Underachievers: April: Jose Macias, 2B/OF; May: Craig Paquette, 3B/UT; June: Chris Truby, 3B

Kansas City: Mike Sweeney, 1B
119/335 for .355/.425/.603 with 18 HR, 57 RBI, 60 R, 6/11 SB%, and 42:31 BB:K.

The current AL leader in batting average, Sweeney only returned last week after spending a month on the DL with a strained lower back and hip. While he's definitely provided significant BA help, the combination of a missed month and the woeful OBP from the Royals normally hitting above Sweeney have left his owners scrambling for RBI and maybe even runs. His 1.35 BB:K, .13 walk rate, and .91 contact rate are all near or at the best levels of his career, so he appears fully capable of supporting his great BA. A 1.23 G-F is worse than his last two years, but I don't believe the difference indicates much of a decrease in power. Although you could explore moving Sweeney, unless you have a huge lead in BA, you should probably wait as he could maintain his current pace while also increasing his quantitative contributions.

July Underachiever: Mark Quinn, OF
Old stats: 18/76 for .237/.301/.368 with 2 HR, 11 RBI, 9 R, 2/3 SB%, and 5:15 BB:K.
Recommendation: deal.
Stats since recommendation: No stats as he's been on the DL for the past month.

Previous Underachievers: April: Brent Mayne, C; May: Raul Ibanez, DH; June: Chuck Knoblauch, OF

Minnesota: Luis Rivas, 2B
55/213 for .258/.310/.390 with 3 HR, 27 RBI, 34 R, 7/10 SB%, and 13:37 BB:K.

After missing most of the first two months of the season on the DL with a hairline fracture in his left wrist, Rivas has returned very little value on his owners' investment this year. His plate discipline has never been good, but a .35 BB:K and .06 walk rate are even worse than last year's numbers. While he's at least held his contact rate around .83, a 1.33 G-F indicates a sharp increase in power potential from last year's 1.86, and as he's never demonstrated much power in the past, I'm concerned he's only flying out with greater frequency instead of truly developing power. Even his 3.46 #P/PA, almost .30 #P/PA under his rate from a season ago, suggests he's showing no patience at the plate. Contenders should look to deal him to a rebuilding team as I don't expect him to begin utilizing his speed skills to any great extent until next year.

July Underachiever: Corey Koskie, 3B
Old stats: 84/298 for .282/.389/.470 with 9 HR, 43 RBI, 51 R, 9/15 SB%, and 47:74 BB:K.
Recommendation: acquire.
Stats since recommendation: 21/83 for .253 with 0 HR, 12 RBI, 5 R, 1/3 SB%, and 12:25 BB:K.

Previous Underachievers: April: Cristian Guzman, SS; May: Doug Mientkiewicz, 1B; June: David Ortiz, DH

New York Yankees: Jason Giambi, 1B
135/443 for .305/.424/.576 with 30 HR, 94 RBI, 92 R, 2/4 SB%, and 86:86 BB:K.

In the last month he's plummeted from a neck-and-neck race with ARod for most valuable player to barely holding off Jim Thome for best AL first baseman. Giambi's reportedly suffered from back problems for much of that time, potentially contributing to his terrible August, including a .197 BA, .319 OBP, and .344 SLG thus far. However an 11:12 BB:K in 61 at-bats indicates he's continuing excellent plate discipline, a 4.22 #P/PA on the year is a career-high, and he's still on pace for superior quantitative production to last season. With only his .81 contact rate even slightly below his career mark among his skill ratios, Giambi should rebound into a superb roto contributor in September. Any team should be lucky to acquire him.

July Underachiever: John Vander Wal, OF
Old stats: 41/155 for .265/.326/.419 with 3 HR, 16 RBI, 19 R, 1/2 SB%, and 15:44 BB:K.
Recommendation: deal.
Stats since recommendation: 13/33 for .394 with 3 HR, 4 RBI, 8 R, 0/0 SB%, and 0:9 BB:K.

Previous Underachievers: April: Bernie Williams, OF; May: Nick Johnson, 1B/DH; June: Shane Spencer, OF

Oakland: Eric Chavez, 3B
119/444 for .268/.341/.14 with 26 HR, 77 RBI, 62 R, 4/6 SB%, and 49:92 BB:K.

Like his former teammate Jason Giambi, Chavez should likely exceed most of his numbers from last year while still not reaching the level we expected. His average is down twenty points primarily due to a .79 contact rate, down a few percent from 2001, and only an increase in his walk rate from .07 to .11 has enabled him to improve his OBP. We're also seeing strong development in a 3.84 #P/PA and .72 G-F, both career-best marks with the latter depicting a sharp increase in power potential after last season's 1.18 G-F. He should easily reach forty homers next year and might make it this year, so any team would be lucky to acquire Chavez.

July Underachiever: David Justice, OF/DH
Old stats: 55/206 for .267/.399/.383 with 5 HR, 22 RBI, 28 R, 2/2 SB%, and 45:32 BB:K.
Recommendation: acquire.
Stats since recommendation: 22/79 for .278 with 3 HR, 10 RBI, 10 R, 0/0 SB%, and 9:15 BB:K.

Previous Underachievers: April: Ramon Hernandez, C; May: Terrence Long, OF; June: Jermaine Dye, OF

Seattle: Ben Davis, C
43/167 for .257/.321/.674 with 2 HR, 26 RBI, 15 R, 1/2 SB%, and 16:40 BB:K.

Although these stats are mostly what we expected, we'd hoped he would challenge Dan Wilson for the starting job at some point; instead Davis has barely kept his roster spot after reportedly impressing few Mariners' personnel during his first months in the organization. He's fallen to a .10 walk rate after a .13 last year, and his .40 BB:K is an equal disappointment following a .59 in 2001. I'm surprised his BA is up as he shifted to an equally poor hitters' park and only minutely boosted his contact rate to .76. He's seeing fewer pitches than in previous seasons and a G-F drop from 1.20 in 2001 to 1.02 this year hasn't translated to any overall improvement. Davis is strictly a long-term roto project, and while he could succeed as soon as next year, you can certainly explore a potential deal now.

July Underachiever: Edgar Martinez, DH
Old stats: 32/120 for .267/.364/.433 with 4 HR, 18 RBI, 16 R, 0/1 SB%, and 16:34 BB:K.
Recommendation: wait.
Stats since recommendation: 33/85 for .388 with 6 HR, 24 RBI, 13 R, 0/0 SB%, and 18:15 BB:K.

Previous Underachievers: April: Jeff Cirillo, 3B; May: Bret Boone, 2B; June: Mike Cameron, OF

Tampa Bay: Steve Cox, 1B
121/454 for .267/.339/.416 with 14 HR, 61 RBI, 55 R, 5/5 SB%, and 46:98 BB:K.

After two years of part-time work due to incompetent Tampa Bay management, the Rays finally gave Cox a full-time job only slightly before his twenty-eighth birthday. He's continued producing at almost an identical rate to last season instead of regaining his formerly excellent batting skills. A .47 BB:K and .10 walk rate are significantly worse than the .98 BB:K and .14 walk rate he posted two seasons ago. However, we can expect dramatic power improvement next season as his G-F has fallen from 1.57 and 1.65 over the last two years to a solid 1.12. While he shouldn't see a noticeable upswing in production this year, owners in keeper leagues should acquire Cox for his excellent 2003 upside.

July Underachiever: Ben Grieve, OF
Old stats: 79/313 for .252/.344/.419 with 10 HR, 40 RBI, 35 R, 4/5 SB%, and 38:78 BB:K.
Recommendation: deal.
Stats since recommendation: 8/54 for .148 with 1 HR, 3 RBI, 8 R, 0/1 SB%, and 13:20 BB:K.

Previous Underachievers: April: Greg Vaughn, OF; May: Toby Hall, C; June: Brent Abernathy, 2B

Texas: Juan Gonzalez, OF
78/277 for .282/.324/.451 with 8 HR, 35 RBI, 38 R, 2/2 SB%, and 17:56 BB:K.

Gonzalez has injured his right thumb three times this year, and his current strained ligament could keep him out for the year. Even if he returns in September, Gonzalez's 2002 easily ranks as the most disappointing year of his career, and he's likely freely available in leagues where his owner paid a significant sum expecting forty homers and well over a hundred RBI. Most of his skills appear marginally below his career rates, so we can't hope for a power surge upon his return, regardless of when he's able to come back. Providing he's healthy in the spring, we'll likely again predict a strong follow-up to his great 2001, but there's no reason to expect a career year. Wait on Gonzalez unless someone will trade you a solid keeper in exchange for potential September production.

July Underachiever: Ivan Rodriguez, C
Old stats: 53/192 for .276/.322/.469 with 8 HR, 28 RBI, 25 R, 2/3 SB%, and 13:34 BB:K.
Recommendation: acquire.
Stats since recommendation: 30/87 for .345 with 2 HR, 10 RBI, 16 R, 1/3 SB%, and 4:9 BB:K.

Previous Underachievers: April: Carl Everett, OF; May: Frank Catalanotto, 2B/OF; June: Gabe Kapler, OF

Toronto: Shannon Stewart, OF
128/429 for .298/.360/.436 with 6 HR, 39 RBI, 69 R, 8/8 SB%, and 35:43 BB:K.

Very few players have provided as much disappointment for owners who repeatedly purchase him as Stewart whose value has dropped steadily until it headed sharply downward this year with the complete disappearance of his speed. His 3.38 #P/PA is easily the worst mark of his career, and a 1.36 G-F, while good for Stewart, doesn't suggest a significant increase in his power potential. Stewart's hitting skills all remain relatively near his career averages, so he should rebound next year, but he doesn't appear likely to develop into more than a capable left fielder and sometime leadoff option. Feel free to explore any available deal for someone who's shown more consistency over the past couple of years.

July Underachiever: Carlos Delgado, 1B
Old stats: 88/349 for .252/.388/.504 with 20 HR, 71 RBI, 62 R, 1/1 SB%, and 72:95 BB:K.
Recommendation: deal.
Stats since recommendation: 11/50 for .220 with 1 HR, 7 RBI, 7 R, 0/0 SB%, and 6:6 BB:K before hitting the DL with a sore back.

Previous Underachievers: April: Darren Fletcher, C; May: Raul Mondesi, OF; June: Jose Cruz, Jr., OF

Today's Fantasy Rx: Several players I discussed today, and Troy Glaus in particular, are among a group of players whom I expect either will strongly rebound from their problems or even post career years in 2003. Many of these position players are only approaching or just beginning the likely peak years of their career, and normal growth patterns indicate they could improve even without a noticeable increase in skill. While contenders should consider trading some of these guys for more immediate help, remember that today's list includes significant future value even if the current value resides below expectations.