Today's Fantasy Rx

Please refer here to see the last set of changes made to the rating system.

Forty-four National Leaguers earned a 1 for their performance through a week ago. This week Mike Koplove and Kerry Wood joined the list while Randy Johnson(HR/9), Jared Fernandez(K:BB, H/9), and Vladimir Nunez(K:BB) departed, leaving us with forty-three pitchers displaying solid skills.

LPR Code Description
1 - K:BB of 2.0+, K/9 of 6.0+, HR/9 of 1.0-, and H/9 of 9.0- thus far in 2002
2 - K:BB of 2.0+, K/9 of 6.0+, HR/9 of 1.0-, and H/9 of 9.0- in the second half of 2001
3 - K:BB of 2.0+, K/9 of 6.0+, HR/9 of 1.0-, and H/9 of 9.0- in the first half of 2001
4 - K:BB of 2.0+, K/9 of 6.0+, HR/9 of 1.0-, and H/9 of 9.0- for all of 2000

a - DOM of 55% or more in 2002
b - DOM of 55% or more in 2001
c - DOM of 55% or more in 2000
x - DIS of 20% or less in 2002
y - DIS of 20% or less in 2001
z - DIS of 20% or less in 2000

(Note: I used the PQS logs from Baseball Forecaster to create these ratings, and I strongly recommend that you purchase a copy if you haven't already.

Here is the fourteenth set of 2002 in-season NL LPR ratings, which include all games played through August 15th. We ranked pitchers by the highest LIMA rating and then by the best PQS rating. Starting pitchers, if necessary, are ranked by their performance over their last five starts, which I include after the pitchers name in chronological order, ending with his most recent appearance.

1234
Robb Nen

Randy's less than an inning short of holding his spot, so I again expect him back next week.

123
abcxy - Kerry Wood(44552)

Octavio Dotel
Jason Isringhausen

We're quite pleased to see Kerry back up here and heartily recommend him for the rest of the year.

Like Julio in the AL, St. Louis has more games to play than any other NL team, giving Izzy the most potential save opps in the league.

124
abcxyz - Al Leiter(05334)

Justin Speier

134
Paul Shuey

Reserve him for now whenever possible; I'm still rather certain we'll discover he's either tipping his pitches or hiding an injury.

234
abcxyz - Randy Johnson(55555)
abxy - Brian Lawrence(34534)

Despite occasional problems, I really see nothing wrong with either of these pitchers; feel free to deploy them against every opponent.

Juan Cruz(41005)
Jeremy Fikac
Felix Rodriguez
Tim Spooneybarger

12
abcxyz- Curt Schilling(55555)
abx - Roy Oswalt(35434)
aby - Jason Schmidt(45554)

Like Kerry, Randy, and Lawrence, feel free to start these guys anywhere.

Steve Kline
Mike Remlinger
John Smoltz

Nunez is starting to dramatically slip down the list as Looper's surprisingly holding the closer's job while outpitching Vlad.

13
Joey Eischen
Byung-Hyun Kim
Steve Reed
Luis Vizcaino
Jay Witasick

This group of pitchers remains your best option for low-risk relievers, although attempt to avoid Eischen in Colorado next week.

14
Trevor Hoffman
Gabe White
Scott Williamson

23
by - Brad Penny(50355)

Carlos Zambrano(54045)
Nick Neugebauer(42451)
Kyle Farnsworth
Jeff Fassero
Josias Manzanillo
Jose Mesa
Billy Wagner

24
bcxyz - Bartolo Colon(25344)
z - Britt Reames(00550)

34
bcxyz - Greg Maddux(44544)
acyz - Kevin Brown(45420)

Jose Acevedo(51030)
Chad Fox
Mike Holtz
Dave Veres

1
acxyz - Kevin Millwood(53543)
axyz - A.J. Burnett(55535)
axy - Pedro Astacio(45452)
bxy - Matt Morris(50453)
ax - Odalis Perez(32532)
xz - Matt Clement(33542)

Mike Crudale(0)
Joe Borowski
Eric Gagne
Mark Guthrie
Darren Holmes
Todd Jones
Ray King
Mike Koplove
Kent Mercker
Guillermo Mota
Mike Myers
Blaine Neal
Scott Sauerbeck
Scott Stewart
Tim Worrell

Only Koplove joins the list this week, and Crudale remains our pick of all non-closing relievers here.

2

IN MEMORIAM: bcxyz - Darryl Kile(43004)

abxyz - Javier Vazquez(44045)
abxyz - Randy Wolf(53541)
bxy - Russ Ortiz(20543)
bxy - Tony Armas, Jr.(22040)

Nelson Cruz(05040)
Jose Jimenez
Kerry Ligtenberg
Vladimir Nunez
Scott Sullivan
Dave Weathers

Surprisingly Nunez is the best of these middle relievers, although Jimenez certainly offers much more upside at the moment.

3
bxyz - Jon Lieber(44325)
by - Ruben Quevedo(11402)

Jason Bere(45550)
Ryan Jensen(55142)
Tim Redding(04320)
Jose Cabrera(22303)
Pedro Borbon
Giovanni Carrara
Mike Matthews
Dan Plesac
Paul Quantrill

4
b - Bud Smith(02040)
y - Ben Sheets(31315)

Kris Benson(03232)
Doug Brocail
Vic Darensbourg
John Franco
Aaron Fultz
Scott Strickland
Greg Swindell

a
cxyz - Woody Williams(44554)
xz - Chuck Finley(44405)
x - Mark Prior(43555)
x - Oliver Perez(55344)
x - Josh Beckett(54430)
y - Kevin Jarvis(44400)
Jake Peavy(40344)

I seem to be surprised by something here seemingly every week. All that Prior, Beckett, and Perez are missing to move up to the 1a range or better is the HR/9 point; they easily qualify in the other three ratios. Peavy isn't suffering from any home run problems. Only a slightly high hit rate limits him, so we actually prefer him to the others for 2002 as he shouldn't struggle much this season, but he also isn't showing the same level of dominance as the other young studs, so he's only clearly better in 4x4 games.

b
cxy - Hideo Nomo(33343)
cyz - Wade Miller(42434)
y - Steve Trachsel(44140)
y - John Thomson(12320)
Terry Adams(33001)

c
xz - Glendon Rusch(44233)
xz - Robert Person(33320)
yz - Ryan Dempster(03043)
Rick Ankiel

Neither the b nor c ratings ever seem to change from week to week. Nomo and Miller are the safe bets from these two groups, while Trachsel and Rusch have more upside with a lower chance for disasters, and Thomson and Dempster are high-risk, high-upside pitchers based on their recent performance.

x
yz - Denny Neagle(00553)
yz - Tom Glavine(12334)
yz - Livan Hernandez(22333)
z - Rick Helling(40045)
z - Jamey Wright(02323)

I actually prefer Helling to anyone else in this group, although of the remaining pitchers, only Glavine is probably a safe deployment.

Omar Daal(34543)
Miguel Batista(25433)
Vicente Padilla(23425)
Kip Wells(25242)
Andy Ashby(13453)
Damian Moss(34413)
Kazuhisa Ishii(40234)
Kirk Rueter(24411)
Brett Tomko(20404)
Bobby J. Jones(34323)
Michael Tejera(32351)
Brian Moehler(33124)
Brett Myers(40223)
Josh Fogg(04222)
Tomo Ohka(30315)
Denny Stark(30333)
Jimmy Haynes(32122)
Myers joins this group but hasn't shown much after his fantastic debut. Daal moved to the top of his group as he struggles to keep his rotation spot. Haynes looks quite vulnerable and should be dropped in most leagues. Only Daal, Batista, Padilla, and Wells look relatively safe; deploy the others based on match-ups.

y
z - Elmer Dessens(34430)
z - Shane Reynolds(42300)
Brandon Duckworth(45040)
Jason Marquis(40430)
Shawn Chacon(30400)
Brian Tollberg(32320)
Nelson Figueroa(30032)
Sean Lowe(0)
Darren Dreifort

Duckworth's removal from the rotation is an indefensibly short-sighted move by a hopefully lame duck manager who refuses to use his best offensive players more than a couple times each week. With Dessens out and Duckworth demoted, Marquis is the only usable pitcher here.

z
Shawn Estes(35350)
Andy Benes(03533)
Mike Hampton(22134)
Carl Pavano(03400)
Julian Tavarez(12332)
Jeff D'Amico(22301)
Albie Lopez(0230)
Bruce Chen(03200)

Estes is a very intriguing pick-up as he's already seen some recent success and now joins Dr. Don's School for Underachieving Pitchers. Avoid the other starters here.

NL pitchers I recommend despite their failure to appear here include Antonio Alfonseca, Armando Benitez, Brian Boehringer, Rheal Cormier, Will Cunnane, Jared Fernandez(24300), Mike Fetters, Danny Graves, Graeme Lloyd, Matt Mantei, Joe Roa(0434), Kirk Saarloos(42334), Carlos Silva, Gene Stechschulte, Brandon Villafuerte, Mike Williams, and Masato Yoshii(33344). Please recognize that these are fairly risky or unproven players, but most aren't missing much to at least pick up a 1 rating fairly soon.

Other pitchers who you probably shouldn't deploy right now include Brian Anderson(54414), Jimmy Anderson(22320), Mike Bacsik(240), Joe Beimel(30522), Dave Coggin(02040), Mike DeJean, Tom Gordon, Kevin Gryboski, Joey Hamilton(34020), Chris Hammond, Matt Herges, Jason Jennings(33443), Braden Looper, Brian Meadows(340), Dave Mlicki(03030), Pete Munro(25303), John Riedling, Jose Santiago, Jason Simontacchi(10033), Steve Smyth(03), Mike Timlin, and Ron Villone(03043).

Today's Fantasy Rx: If you've used Jason Jennings until now, consider moving him immediately. He's unlikely to start more than another game or two on the road and he remains subject to disasters at home. As he's also received extra media coverage lately supporting his candidacy for Rookie of the Year, we don't expect his value to increase above its current level at any time in the near future.