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August
14th
2002
Your Daily Fantasy Rx
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AL Roto Pitching Prospects, August 2002
by Tim Polko

Today's Fantasy Rx

Today, we continue reviewing potential FAAB-worthy prospects with American League pitchers from the high minors.


Note: For those of you unfamiliar with FAAB, each team normally has $100 to spend throughout the year on all free agent pickups. Most injury replacements or speculative picks go for a buck or two, hot starters go for $5-$10, top prospects go in the $10-$30 range, and we've seen $90+ bids on top players traded into the league, as well as selected call-ups.


Anaheim: Mark Lukasiewicz, 29, LH Reliever
3-2 on 45:16 K:BB in 39 IP over 31 G with 43 H, 6 HR, and a 4.38 ERA at AAA Salt Lake City(PCL).

In 10.1 IP over 14 G in Anaheim earlier this year, he managed a 3.48 ERA despite a poor 11:8 K:BB and 8 hits allowed. Anaheim will recall him in September to give them a second left-handed reliever after converting starter Scott Schoeneweis. Lukasiewicz's major problem, aside from finding narrow letters so he can fit his name on the back of his uniform, is allowing too many homers. Giving up key homers in a pennant race annoys your teammates, manager, and fans, so he won't receive many opportunities if he struggles following his promotion. Brendan Donnelly's great debut will keep Lukasiewicz from any save opps, and considering his potential homer problems, ignore him this season.

Previous prospects: May: Mickey Callaway; June: Scot Shields; July: Francisco Rodriguez.


Baltimore: Steve Bechler, 22, RH Starter
7-10 on 78:48 K:BB in 137 IP over 24 GS with 158 H, 17 HR, and a 4.22 ERA between AA Bowie(EL) and Rochester(IL).

John Stephens freed! At least he's free until Ponson returns from the DL, but if Driskill struggles, hopefully they'll at least start Stephens through the end of the season.

Bechler's fallen behind Stephens and Sean Douglass in the competition for spots in a suddenly crowded Baltimore rotation. While he pitched effectively in 12 AA starts in 2001, he didn't show much in four 2002 starts before his promotion. Both his 1.5 K:BB and 4.7 K/9 suggest he'll move to the bullpen by 2004 unless he begins improving rather rapidly. Although he's succeeded in the past, I don't see much to like here at the moment, so definitely ignore any promotion.

Previous prospects: May: John Stephens; June: Lesli Brea; July: Mike Drumright.


Boston: Josh Hancock, 24, RH Starter
6-5 on 85:28 K:BB in 106.2 IP over 18 GS(19G) with 104 H, 11 HR, and a 3.54 ERA between AA Trenton(EL) and AAA Pawtucket(IL).

Boston's trade of Seung Song basically leaves their system barren of upper-level pitching prospects. Hancock's one of the best left in the system, although I'm surprised he returned to AA this year after managing a 3.65 ERA on a 119:37 K:BB in 130.2 IP last season, improving on all his A+ skill ratios. He's striking out about one batter less per game this season, but I still like his upside even if most scouts think little of his potential. While you should ignore Hancock if he's needed in 2002, keep an eye on his dominance in AAA next year; unfortunately he'll receive more media attention as one of the few remaining Boston prospects relatively prepared for the majors.

Previous prospects: May: Chris Haney; June: Tim Young; July: Casey Fossum.


Chicago White Sox: Brooks Kieschnick, 30, RH Reliever/OF-L
0-1 on 23:10 K:BB in 24.2 IP over 19 G with 20 H, 1 HR, and a 2.55 ERA
and .287/.328/.569 in 174 AB with 13 HR, 38 RBI, 31 R, 0/0 SB%, and 12:43 BB:K at AAA Charlotte(IL).

A former first-round pick and star two-way player in college, Kieschnick returned to pitching this year after no team ever gave him an extended major league look despite impressive minor league numbers. As a pitcher, he's compiled fairly impressive numbers for someone who's basically spent the last eight years retired from the mound; he matches up nicely with very good AAA relievers. The Sox should give him a tryout in September, as a solid right-handed reliever who's also a capable left-handed hitter provides added flexibility for a smart team. While I like what I see thus far in his numbers, I don't expect he'll find a significant role until next year at the earliest. Ignore Kieschnick unless promoted only as an outfielder.

Previous prospects: May: Corey Lee; June: Edwin Almonte; July: Jon Rauch.


Cleveland: Roy Smith, 26, RH Reliever
4-4 on 53:22 K:BB in 55.1 IP over 32 G with 53 H, 2 HR, and a 3.90 ERA at AAA Buffalo(IL).

He dominated AAA last year and deserved an extended look in the majors; instead Mark Shapiro wasted a few million dollars on Mark Wohlers, condemning Smith to another year at Buffalo. While Smith did suffer from control problems in his 16.1 major league innings last season, he maintained an excellent 9.4 K/9 and appeared able to correct his problems. He may be the best reliever left in the organization after Paul Shuey's departure, so hopefully Smith can establish himself in his second September call-up. Cleveland has given no indication that they'll consider letting him close, so only FAAB him if you need roster filler this season.

While Billy Traber, Brian Tallet, Cliff Lee, and Ricardo Rodriguez all show considerable promise and should receive major league tryouts next season, none of them currently appear ready to succeed above AAA.

Previous prospects: May: Jason Phillips; June: Dave Maurer; July: Jason Beverlin.


Detroit: Andy Van Hekken, 23, LH Starter
8-7 on 110:41 K:BB in 163.1 IP over 25 GS with 157 H, 12 HR, and a 3.31 ERA between AA Erie(EL) and AAA Toledo(IL).

A former third-round pick of Seattle, Detroit acquired him in the Brian L. Hunter trade in 1999. His skills are showing some erosion at higher levels, but his 2.7 K:BB is fairly close to his marks from previous years. The 6.1 K/9 is a bigger concern and eventually might necessitate a move to relief if he can't even maintain that level in AAA. Van Hekken looks very similar to Mark Redman in several respects, and while he should succeed in Detroit beginning some time next year, he doesn't appear ready for the majors at the moment. Ignore him if promoted.

Previous prospects: May: Adam Bernero; June: Tim Kalita; July: Franklyn German.


Kansas City:Jeff Austin, 25, RH Reliever
4-0 on 40:13 K:BB in 46 IP over 34 G with 38 H, 2 HR, and a 2.35 ERA at AAA Omaha(PCL).

Brad Voyles and Austin own very similar skills this season, and while KC currently appears to prefer Voyles, Austin's upside appears higher due to his better repertoire and pedigree. While they'll both likely spend most of September with the Royals, Austin's much lower ERA gives him a slight edge on playing time. They're the top two contenders to eventually replace Roberto Hernandez as Ryan Bukvich really needs more minor league time, and Austin should have better backing from the organization. Consider a small FAAB bid when he's recalled, although I suspect they're more likely to depart Spring Training with a committee rather than allow either Austin or Voyles to claim the job after spending most of this year in the minors.

Previous prospects: May: Brett Laxton; June: Matt Skrmetta; July: Kiko Calero.


Minnesota: Michael Nakamura, 26, RH Reliever
2-3 on 65:21 K:BB in 74 IP over 39 G with 75 H, 7 HR, and a 5.35 ERA at AAA Edmonton(PCL).

An Australian like fellow Trapper Grant Balfour, Nakamura has posted impressive skill ratios throughout his minor league career. His current ERA is far less impressive than the 1.69 ERA he compiled the last two years, but he certainly seems as capable as some of his highly-touted teammates. Minnesota will benefit from promoting a couple pitchers from Balfour, Nakamura, and Juan Rincon to replace Bob Wells and Mike Jackson in next year's bullpen, but they're unlikely to earn much roto value in the near future. Ignore Nakamura if he gets a look in September.

Previous prospects: May: Johan Santana; June: Grant Balfour; July: David Lee.


New York Yankees: Adrian Hernandez, 22, RH Starter
6-6 on 106:41 K:BB in 99 IP over 18 GS with 100 H, 9 HR, and a 5.00 ERA between A+ Tampa and AAA Columbus.

El Duquecito showed little skill in AAA before this season, and while he struggled in his two major league appearances this year, his AAA numbers are quite good. The Yankees could have a couple of rotation openings next year, and he's probably the healthiest youngster prepared to audition for a couple of months. New York could always deal him for a more proven commodity, although we'll carefully examine any potential destination since he seems ready to succeed in the majors. If he gets an extended look, he should surprise a lot of people, and his upside is worth a few bucks of FAAB.

Previous prospects: May: Domingo Jean; June: Brian Rogers; July: Julio DePaula.


Oakland: Mike Fyhrie, 32, RH Swingman
5-2 on 44:19 K:BB in 56.1 IP over 10 GS with 47 H, 3 HR, and a 2.40 ERA at AAA Sacramento(PCL).

Fyhrie returned to starting this year and filled in for Mulder earlier in the season before Aaron Harang quickly moved through three levels. He should return to Oakland in September as a long reliever and potential spot starter if Ted Lilly's rehab takes longer than expected. As Fyhrie's managed to pitch quite effectively as a minor league starter, he should maintain similar skill ratios as a major league reliever. Consider a small FAAB bid if you need roster filler.

Previous prospects: May: Chad Harville; June: Matt J. Miller; July: Micah Bowie.


Seattle: Aaron Taylor, 24, RH Reliever
17 Saves on 79:33 K:BB in 67 IP over 52 G with 43 H, 4 HR, and a 2.55 ERA at AA San Antonio(TL).

Both Allen Simpson and Taylor could be promoted to add depth to Seattle's bullpen; they've each pitched very effectively in relief and own 40-man roster slots, but Taylor's lower ERA and 5 GF in Spring Training probably give him a small edge in potential playing time. The Mariners have lost a few reliable relievers on waivers, so they should give their AA relievers a chance to provide bullpen depth down the stretch. Taylor would certainly benefit from AAA time, but as he skipped A+ this season to dominate in AA, he could easily succeed after making another leap. While he won't be in line for any saves and won't earn much value in limited innings, his upside warrants a small FAAB bid if you have extra roster space.

Previous prospects: May: Ken Cloude; June: Aquilino Lopez; July: Brian Sweeney.


Tampa Bay: Luis de los Santos, 24, RH Swingman
6-2 on 55:16 K:BB in 95 IP over 13 GS(20G) with 88 H, 7 HR, and a 2.75 ERA at AAA Durham(IL).

The former Yankee prospect missed all of last season while injured after only pitching 15 IP at Rookie-ball in 2000. So the Rays sign him and immediately let him start at AAA, including giving him three starts in the majors. Normally players are not rushed back to relatively unfamiliar levels after surgery, and de los Santos only pitched 170 IP above A-ball before his injury. Although he pitched relatively poorly in the majors, going 0-3 with a 11.57 ERA on 7:4 K:BB in 14 IP with 24 H and 5 HR, his 1.4 G-F was decent and his AAA numbers suggest future success. He should move to relief if his dominance doesn't improve within the next year, and while you should ignore de los Santos in 2002, he might surprise in the next season or two.

Previous prospects: May: Jason Jimenez; June: Travis Phelps; July: Lance Carter.


Texas: Reynaldo Garcia, 24, RH Swingman
6-2 on 75:39 K:BB in 89 IP over 35 G(9GS) with 78 H, 12 HR, and a 3.44 ERA at AAA Oklahoma(PCL).

In a brief major league trial, he allowed two homers, a single, and a walk while only managing five outs over two games. Texas should have given him a longer look as he began excelling upon a move to relief in AA. Pitching exclusively out of the bullpen in AAA, he's posted a 21:9 K:BB in 20.2 IP over 17 G with 15 H, 1 HR, and a 2.61 ERA. He could establish himself very quickly if given the opportunity, and the considering the relative lack of talented and healthy Rangers' relievers, Garcia's likely worth a small FAAB bid.

Previous prospects: May: Colby Lewis; June: Jeremi Gonzalez; July: Aaron Myette.


Toronto: Scott Wiggins, 26, LH Reliever
2-2 on 46:15 K:BB in 49 IP over 42 G with 38 H, 1 HR, and a 1.65 ERA between AA Norwich(EL), AA Tennessee(SL), and AAA Syracuse(IL).

The sole return for Raul Mondesi continues to impress, likely earning a spot on the 40-man roster and a September call-up. He still needs to excel in AAA before establishing himself as a true prospect, but considering how badly many of Toronto's upper-level pitchers have thrown this year, they're likely quite pleased with Wiggins' success. Left-handed relievers rarely earn much value, but he could emerge as a relatively useful reliever even as you should likely ignore him for now with respect to fantasy teams.

Previous prospects: May: Chad Ricketts; June: Mark Hendrickson; July: Robbie Crabtree.


Our August roto prospect series will conclude tomorrow with NL pitchers.


Today's Fantasy Rx: In leagues using a player pool of all thirty teams, don't be afraid to deal a solid starter or outfielder if you can improve a scarcer position. The available free agents in any relatively shallow league should provide replacements for all but the best players, and as teams frequently ignore middle relievers, consider adding a couple to your roster to replace traded starters, especially if your league has an IP or GS maximum.


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Please e-mail your comments to tim@rotohelp.com.
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