Today's Fantasy Rx

I'm going to spend a few days looking at potential fantasy help currently residing in the upper levels of the minors, one hitter and one pitcher, so you can know who to monitor for potential FAABing. Since most teams will still promote talent from AAA if given the chance, I'll only select a AA prospect if a AAA club lacks any promotion-worthy candidates.

Since I won't return to prospects until September call-ups, I'm going to attempt to choose a prospect from each team likely to see Major League action in September, giving preference to players already on the 40-man roster. While I won't repeat anyone previously covered this year, I'll try to discuss a good cross-section of potential roster expansion candidates.

We'll begin today with American League batting prospects.

Note: For those of you unfamiliar with FAAB, each team normally has $100 to spend throughout the year on all free agent pickups. Most injury replacements or speculative picks go for a buck or two, hot starters go for $5-$10, top prospects go in the $10-$30 range, and we've seen $90+ bids on top players traded into the league, as well as selected call-ups.

Anaheim: Alfredo Amezaga, 24, SS-S
.235/.308/.332 in 443 AB with 4 HR, 44 RBI, 63 R, 16/28 SB%, and 43:89 BB:K at AAA Salt Lake City(PCL).

Minor league vet Robb Quinlan deserves more attention, but Amezaga will certainly be up in September. After a season of diminishing plate discipline, Amezaga's salvaged his walk rate while posting an improved BB:K. He still shows no power and few baserunning instincts, and he's also made 21 errors in 107 games at shortstop. As GM Bill Stoneman just announced that Adam Kennedy will remain the starter at second next year, and David Eckstein continues to excel at short, I don't see an opening for Amezaga in the majors. His stats indicate he needs another year of AAA, hopefully with a decent hitting coach, so I don't believe he'll provide a noticeable roto contribution this season. Ignore Amezaga when he's promoted later this year.

Previous prospects: May: Jeff Guiel; June: Mike O'Keefe; July: Chone Figgins.

Baltimore: Tim Raines, Jr., 22, OF-S
.251/.297/.340 in 406 AB with 5 HR, 21 RBI, 54 R, 25/38 SB%, and 26:81 K:BB at AA Bowie(EL).

Baltimore's already shuffled the vast majority of their upper level prospects through the majors this year, although Rock Jr. should see time off the bench after call-ups. Unfortunately this is his first season that he hasn't managed even a 10% walk rate, and he's also older than much of his competition. He's not displaying any power and doesn't possess his dad's intuitive baserunning ability, likely leaving him as a fourth outfielder at best. Ignore Raines unless you're desperate for a couple steals from your 5th OF or UT slot.

Previous prospects: May: Brian Roberts; June: Larry Bigbie; July: Howie Clark.

Boston: Angel Santos, 22, IF-S
.258/.331/.400 in 345 AB with 10 HR, 50 RBI, 40 R, 12/20 SB%, and 38:70 BB:K at AAA Pawtucket(IL)

Although the Red Sox will likely audition Freddy Sanchez and Santos for second base next year, I suspect the long-term solution will be either a repositioned Hillenbrand or current top third base prospect Kevin Youkilis. Santos is significantly more likely to see major league time in September since he and Sanchez are on the 40-man roster, and Santos could contribute down the stretch. He's holding a decent walk rate with a little power and speed, but 18 errors in 100 games should keep him in AAA for another year. I don't think he offers much for next year, and unless he winds up starting at second due to a Rey Sanchez injury, ignore Santos this season.

Previous prospects: May: Edgard Clemente; June: Todd Betts; July: Freddy Sanchez.

Chicago White Sox: Miguel Olivo, 24, C-R
.306/.380/.471 in 310 AB with 5 HR, 37 RBI, 39 R, 25/37 SB%, and 33:56 BB:K at AA Birmingham(SL).

We don't see too many catchers approaching a thirty steal season at any level. He's been caught a decent number of times, but he definitely could earn double-digit value in the near future based on his speed alone. Unfortunately Chicago kept him in AA for a second year because they kept Sandy Alomar around in the majors, forcing Josh Paul back to AAA, and unfairly keeping Olivo back a level. While he's improved on the bases, his plate discipline has deteriorated even as his BA has risen, allowing him to hold an .851 OPS despite poorer overall skills. He's likely to join the White Sox as the third catcher left on the 40-man, and if you've used an unproductive $1 catcher all year, FAAB Olivo for a couple of steals.

Previous prospects: May: Joe Crede; June: Willie Harris; July: Joe Borchard.

Cleveland: Victor Martinez, 23, C-S
.342/.415/.585 in 395 AB with 20 HR, 77 RBI, 69 R, 3/6 SB%, and 47:54 BB:K at AA Akron(EL).

He's leading the Eastern League in batting average while only one homer and a dozen RBI back of the league lead in the other two triple crown categories. Martinez is even second in the league with doubles while holding second in OBP(by .001) and first in SLG. We're also surprised that the best batting prospect in the league is a catcher, but with excellent plate discipline and reportedly very solid defense, there's almost nothing lacking in his offensive game. The Indians do have Einar Diaz signed for a couple more years and AAA starter Josh Bard, an excellent defender, also will challenge for the starting job. However Martinez is a likely All-Star if he can continue this development, and if given a look in September, make every effort to FAAB him, as I don't expect him to spend too many more months destroying minor league pitching.

Previous prospects: May: Greg LaRocca; June: Ben Broussard; July: Jody Gerut.

Detroit: Mike Rivera, 25, C-R
.265/.346/.554 in 204 AB with 16 HR, 39 RBI, 36 R, 0/1 SB%, and 23:32 BB:K at AAA Toledo(IL).

The geniuses running the Tigers jumped him to the majors after 13 AAA at-bats, and he predictably showed very little in the majors, only managing a .225/.255/.337 in 89 at-bats. Even current starter Brandon Inge demonstrates more hitting ability. Fortunately Rivera's holding a respectable .72 BB:K and .11 walk rate at AAA, a nice improvement over last season's .46 BB:K while maintaining the same walk rate. He's also displaying very impressive power while almost reaching his .946 OPS from last year. Rivera should start in Detroit next year unless the Tigers mistakenly continue to favor Inge's defense over the possibility of improving their woeful offense. Look to FAAB Rivera in September if you can then keep him next season.

Previous prospects: May: Eric Munson; June: Jorge Sequea; July: Cody Ross.

Kansas City: Kit Pellow, 28, 1B/3B-R
.285/.348/.543 in 396 AB with 25 HR, 69 RBI, 62R, 4/6 SB%, and 21:82 BB:K at AAA Omaha(PCL).

While certainly not a traditional prospect, this Kansas City native would instantly improve the offense if they'd give him a shot at DH or even 3B, as Pellow could potentially replace free agent Joe Randa next season. He's now hit 20 or more homers at Omaha for four straight years, an inexcusable purgatory for a minor leaguer in an organization perpetually desperate for decent offense. He certainly lacks practically any plate discipline and racks up strikeouts, but even a .775 OPS in the majors would only rank behind Sweeney, Ibanez, Beltran, and Randa. Pellow finally should be able to depart as a minor league free agent if they don't promote him, and we hope they let him go to a wiser franchise while continuing to waste payroll on unproductive mediocre players like Knoblauch and Tucker, neither of whom belong on this team. If they reverse their four-year policy of keeping Pellow in AAA, only FAAB him if you're desperate for any power, since while he could produce if given the chance, he's not a great hitter and faces significant competition for playing time.

Previous prospects: May: Aaron Guiel; June: Jed Hansen; July: Alexis Gomez.

Minnesota: Mike Restovich, 23, OF-R
.293/.362/.571 in 441 AB with 27 HR, 88 RBI, 84 R, 10/16 SB%, and 46:121 BB:K at AAA Edmonton(PCL).

Every month I'm stuck writing the same thing about Edmonton's prospects: they have five top 1B/OF/DH, along with the five outfielders and two DHs already in the majors. When Jacque Jones, David Ortiz, and/or Doug Mientkiewicz leave town in the off-season via trade or non-tendering, the mass media will cry about Minnesota's inability to keep their players, even though any intelligent franchise would gladly make way for the younger, cheaper prospects with significantly more upside. The Twins can sustain at least a few years of winning due to their stocked minor leagues, and Restovich will likely take over for Jacque Jones in left in 2003. As long as he's holding a 10% or higher walk rate, we won't object to the high strikeout total. He's definitely someone who won't help much this year due to the likely lack of available at-bats, but attempt to FAAB this probable future starter and serious power threat.

Previous prospects: May: Javier Valentin; June: Mike Ryan; July: Michael Cuddyer.

New York Yankees: Scott Seabol, 27, IF-R
.268/.319/.466 for 358 AB with 15 HR, 65 RBI, 51 R, 3/6 SB%, and 24:70 BB:K at AAA Columbus(IL).

The Yankees don't exactly have any infield openings, as only Robin Ventura's third base slot might be available next year. Of course New York would never settle for an organization solider like Seabol starting for any length of time, so we can't expect Seabol to see more than a few major league at-bats this year. Even replacing Enrique Wilson or Ron Coomer as Luis Sojo in The Yankees off-off-Broadway(now playing in the Bronx) is probably in violation of the franchise policy against paying minimum wage to non-Bellinger bench players. At least Seabol isn't burdened with an abundance of skill, and his lack of plate discipline or significant power upside suggests he won't stay on the 40-man roster much longer. Ignore him unless you're out of the race and a huge Yankee fan.

Previous prospects: May: Billy McMillon; June: Marcus Thames; July: Andy Phillips.

Oakland: Luis Lopez, 28, 3B-R
.274/.358/.389 in 452 AB with 9 HR, 63 RBI, 59 R, 2/5 SB%, and 60:59 BB:K at AAA Sacramento(PCL).

Beane snuck Lopez onto the 40-man in the off-season and he'll give the A's another capable right-handed bench off the bat after roster expansion. He's never shown significant power but surprisingly isn't even posting a .418 SLG in the PCL after never falling below that level in his last three years at AAA Syracuse in the more pitcher-friendly International League. Like most Beane favorites, Lopez also hasn't fallen below a .366 OBP at AAA while reaching a .391 OBP last year. I don't expect him to see significant playing time in Oakland, although he'll pinch-hit a few times against tough lefties late in close games, allowing you to ignore Lopez and the majority of A's benchwarmers.

Previous prospects: May: Esteban German; June: Marshall McDougall; July: Larry Sutton.

Seattle: Willie Bloomquist, 24, UT-R
.265/.334/.360 in 264 AB with 3 HR, 35 RBI, 37 R, 17/25 SB%, and 26:36 BB:K at AAA Tacoma(PCL).

Having committed to Bret Boone for the next two seasons, Seattle is developing Bloomquist as a utilityman to eventually replace the 37-year-old Mark McLemore. He's played between 18 and 29 games at SS, 3B, 2B, and the outfield this year. In the short term, Bloomquist will probably replace Luis Ugueto on the roster next year as the Rule 5 pick returns to starting in the minors. While he doesn't offer much upside, he could find 100 AB in 100 games, along with most Mariner pinch-running opportunities. Consider a low FAAB bid if you need steals from MIF.

Previous prospects: May: Jermaine Clark; June: Blake Barthol; July: Jamal Strong.

Tampa Bay: Rocco Baldelli, 20, OF-R
.338/.381/.525 in 396 AB with 16 HR, 64 RBI, 75 R, 25/35 SB%, and 23:75 BB:K between A+ Bakersfield(Cal), AA Orlando(SL), and AAA Durham(IL).

Baldelli displays more tools than Home Depot without any apparent baseball skill. Both his .31 BB:K and .058 walk rate are fairly awful, and these are only slight upgrades from his .26 BB:K and .057 walk rate from last season. Only the rarest athletes can succeed in the majors without some solid skill foundation, and there's no reason for the Rays to continue rushing him to the majors. Hopefully they'll leave him at AAA for the rest of 2002 and most of 2003, but he probably shouldn't even have left A-ball. If you're rebuilding, wager a couple bucks of FAAB on the possibility of Baldelli starting next year in the majors, as we'd project him for at least a few dollars of value just based on his SB upside.

Previous prospects: May: Ryan Freel; June: Carl Crawford; July: Josh Pressley.

Texas: Ryan Ludwick, 24, OF-R
.285/.370/.548 in 305 AB with 15 HR, 52 RBI, 62 R, 2/4 SB%, and 38:76 BB:K at AAA Oklahoma(PCL).

While he spent a few weeks in the majors earlier in the year, he's posting rather impressive numbers at AAA. He's surprisingly holding career best averages across the board although he's never finished a season with a BA higher than .274, an OBP over .359, or a SLG better than .505. His .12 walk rate and .50 BB:K give sufficient support to his statistics to enable us to expect he'll succeed when promoted to the majors. Ludwick could easily start in center for Texas next year, and since he'll likely see significant playing time when recalled this season, consider a sizeable FAAB bid of you need outfield help.

Previous prospects: May: Travis Hafner; June: Jeff Pickler; July: Jason Hart.

Toronto: Jayson Werth, 23, OF/C-R
.253/.349/.445 in 371 AB with 16 HR, 70 RBI, 55 R, 21/28 SB%, and 55:112 BB:K at AA Tennessee(SL).

Kevin Cash has forced both Josh Phelps and Werth to new positions, and while Vernon Wells and Gabe Gross seem set in center and right field beginning in the near future, Werth should have a year or two to establish himself in left. A .15 walk rate allows the Jays to ignore his high strikeout total, and if they move Stewart and Cruz to reduce payroll and add pitching, Werth could move into the starting lineup next season. I suspect he'll struggle to maintain a .250 BA, but his SB upside and potential to qualify at catcher makes him a very attractive roto option. If promoted in September, you should try to FAAB him in keeper leagues.

Previous prospects: May: Orlando Hudson; June: Josh Phelps; July: Jimmy Alvarez.

Today's Fantasy Rx: Organizations often rush top prospects to the majors for various reasons, and players on the fast track, while nearly always heavily hyped, are not the strongest candidates for fantasy rosters. Someone like Carlos Pena, with a full year in both AA and AAA, is a much better gamble than a Hank Blalock, who didn't have any AAA time before Texas anointed him the starter out of Spring Training. Don't over-FAAB someone like Rocco Baldelli who really needs at least one more full year in the upper minors.