Today's Fantasy Rx

Please refer here to see the changes made to the rating system.

Forty-four National Leaguers earned a 1 for their performance through a week ago. This week, three pitchers joined the list while three departed, again leaving us with forty-four pitchers displaying solid skills.

Pitchers who joined the list include Randy Johnson, Jared Fernandez, and Ray King.

Pitchers who departed include Javier Vazquez(H/9), Dan Plesac(HR/9), and Brian Boehringer(K:BB).

LPR Code Description
1 - K:BB of 2.0+, K/9 of 6.0+, HR/9 of 1.0-, and H/9 of 9.0- thus far in 2002
2 - K:BB of 2.0+, K/9 of 6.0+, HR/9 of 1.0-, and H/9 of 9.0- in the second half of 2001
3 - K:BB of 2.0+, K/9 of 6.0+, HR/9 of 1.0-, and H/9 of 9.0- in the first half of 2001
4 - K:BB of 2.0+, K/9 of 6.0+, HR/9 of 1.0-, and H/9 of 9.0- for all of 2000

a - DOM of 55% or more in 2002
b - DOM of 55% or more in 2001
c - DOM of 55% or more in 2000
x - DIS of 20% or less in 2002
y - DIS of 20% or less in 2001
z - DIS of 20% or less in 2000

(Note: I used the PQS logs from Baseball Forecaster to create these ratings, and I strongly recommend that you purchase a copy if you haven't already.

Here is the thirteenth set of 2002 in-season NL LPR ratings, which include all games played through August 8th. We ranked pitchers by the highest LIMA rating and then by the best PQS rating. Starting pitchers, if necessary, are ranked by their performance over their last five starts, which I include after the pitchers name in chronological order, ending with his most recent appearance.

1234
abcxyz - Randy Johnson(42555)

Robb Nen

Randy makes it back to the top after not allowing a homer in his last three starts.

123
Octavio Dotel
Jason Isringhausen

124
abcxyz - Al Leiter(44053)

Justin Speier

134
Paul Shuey

I'm at a loss to explain his disastrous debut in the NL, but there's still little wrong with his skills. We just hope he isn't compensating for another emerging injury.

234
abxy - Brian Lawrence(53453)

Juan Cruz(41005)
Jeremy Fikac
Felix Rodriguez
Tim Spooneybarger

12
abcxyz- Curt Schilling(45555)
abx - Roy Oswalt(43543)
aby - Jason Schmidt(44455)

Steve Kline
Vladimir Nunez
Mike Remlinger
John Smoltz

Vazquez slides back down after the increasingly porous Montreal defense doesn't prevent his hit rate from rising above 9.0 H/9. Schilling only needs one more perfect start to join Pedro as the only two pitchers with a 55555 on their resumé this season.

13
Joey Eischen
Byung-Hyun Kim
Steve Reed
Luis Vizcaino
Jay Witasick

Plesac allowed one home run too many to remain on the list, and as we've advised all year long, grab Luis Vizcaino if available in your league; he should start closing in Milwaukee no later than next season.

14
Trevor Hoffman
Gabe White
Scott Williamson

23
abcxy - Kerry Wood(54455)
by - Brad Penny(00503)

Carlos Zambrano(33540)
Nick Neugebauer(42451)
Kyle Farnsworth
Jeff Fassero
Josias Manzanillo
Jose Mesa
Billy Wagner

24
bcxyz - Bartolo Colon(33253)
z - Britt Reames(00550)

34
bcxyz - Greg Maddux(44454)
acyz - Kevin Brown(45420)

Jose Acevedo(51030)
Chad Fox
Mike Holtz
Dave Veres

1
acxyz - Kevin Millwood(55354)
abxy - Matt Morris(55045)
axyz - A.J. Burnett(05553)
axy - Pedro Astacio(24545)
ax - Odalis Perez(33253)
xz - Matt Clement(53354)
x - Jared Fernandez(35243)

While he's consistently posted promising minor league numbers, I'm still a little surprised that Jared Fernandez vaulted this high on the list so soon; remain wary of him but feel free to deploy him against most teams. Matt Morris has thoroughly dominated in five of his last six starts, making him an excellent play in any league. Pedro Astacio also continues to roll along, finally establishing himself as a great pitcher now that he's out of Coors.

Mike Crudale(0)
Joe Borowski
Eric Gagne
Mark Guthrie
Darren Holmes
Todd Jones
Ray King
Kent Mercker
Guillermo Mota
Mike Myers
Blaine Neal
Scott Sauerbeck
Scott Stewart
Tim Worrell

We lose Boehringer as King rejoins the list, although after Gagne and Stewart, Crudale may be the best pitcher on this list. If Izzy's injuries recur, expect Crudale to receive the majority of save opps.

2

IN MEMORIAM: bcxyz - Darryl Kile(43004)

abxyz - Randy Wolf(55354)
abxyz - Javier Vazquez(45440)
bxy - Russ Ortiz(32054)
bxy - Tony Armas, Jr.(22040)

Vazquez slid to this level, although his numbers still look very good. Wolf's dominance continues to surprise me, and if they each stay healthy, we could see Wolf and Millwood contending for Cy votes next year.

Nelson Cruz(05040)
Jose Jimenez
Kerry Ligtenberg
Scott Sullivan
Dave Weathers

3
bxyz - Jon Lieber(44325)
by - Ruben Quevedo(31140)

Hendry's refusal to deal Lieber prior to the deadline will rank was one of the more egregiously short-sighted moves of the season, and we can only hope he doesn't compound that error by acquiring Hampton just to move Hundley's contract. Now if the Rockies will take Alex Gonzalez and Moises Alou with Hundley for Hampton, perhaps even adding Kapler to the deal, then we wouldn't mind adding the most overpriced pitcher in baseball. We can weather Hampton in the rotation, and upgrading the offense with younger players would help the Cubs win more games on daily basis.

Jason Bere(45550)
Ryan Jensen(15514)
Jose Cabrera(42230)
Tim Redding(04320)
Pedro Borbon
Giovanni Carrara
Mike Matthews
Dan Plesac
Paul Quantrill

Although Plesac returned to this level, only Jensen appears a particularly safe play here.

4
b - Bud Smith(02040)
y - Ben Sheets(53131)

Kris Benson(11032)
Doug Brocail
Vic Darensbourg
Aaron Fultz
Scott Strickland
Greg Swindell

a
cxyz - Woody Williams(44554)
xz - Chuck Finley(04440)
x - Oliver Perez(55344)
x - Mark Prior(45435)
x - Josh Beckett(35443)
y - Kevin Jarvis(44400)
Jake Peavy(54034)

I'm surprised at the number of pitchers from this group either currently on the DL or apparently at risk for injury. Williams, Perez, and Jarvis are all out, Beckett's already missed time with blisters, and one more 130+ pitch outing should put Prior out for a year. Only the 39-year-old Finley and the 21-year-old Peavy seem likely to remain healthy, and they're the most inconsistent starters here. However we still see no reason not to deploy all of these pitchers when healthy.

b
cxy - Hideo Nomo(43334)
cyz - Wade Miller(33424)
xy - John Thomson(41232)
y - Steve Trachsel(04414)
Terry Adams(33001)

c
xz - Robert Person(33320)
yz - Ryan Dempster(03030)
z - Glendon Rusch(34423)
Rick Ankiel

x
yz - Tom Glavine(31233)
z - Rick Helling(44004)
z - Shawn Estes(23535)
z - Jamey Wright(30232)
Michael Tejera(43235)
Miguel Batista(32543)
Kip Wells(43252)
Damian Moss(15344)
Omar Daal(02345)
Kirk Rueter(32441)
Brett Tomko(43204)
Kazuhisa Ishii(44023)
Andy Ashby(13145)
Bobby J. Jones(33432)
Vicente Padilla(32342)
Denny Stark(43033)
Jimmy Haynes(43212)
Josh Fogg(00422)
Brian Moehler(33312)
Tomo Ohka(03031)

Helling continues to eat quality innings, and Arizona's rotation will get even deeper when they upgrade from Brian Anderson to John Patterson next year. Tejera, Batista, and Wells may be the best bets here, and the first two certainly have earned strong consideration to keep their rotation spots next seasons. Jimmy Haynes hit the wall quite abruptly, as I suspected after observing his historical second half problems - keep him benched unless you're desperate for innings. Moehler and Ohka managed to displace Fogg from the bottom of the list, and as neither has thrown a dominant start in three weeks, you should probably keep both benched.

y
z - Livan Hernandez(42233)
z - Elmer Dessens(34430)
z - Denny Neagle(33005)
z - Shane Reynolds(42300)
Brandon Duckworth(44504)
Jason Marquis(34043)
Shawn Chacon(33040)
Brian Tollberg(32320)
Nelson Figueroa(30032)
Sean Lowe(0)
Darren Dreifort

Only Duckworth is a particularly good play here. We're just not comfortable deploying (or even owning) either Rockie.

z
Andy Benes(00035)
Carl Pavano(03400)
Julian Tavarez(31233)
Mike Hampton(12213)
Jeff D'Amico(22301)
Albie Lopez(0230)
Bruce Chen(03200)

Benes is not playable. Don't use him. The only two pitchers here you should look to add are Pavano and Chen, both of whom have pitched quite capably since shifting to the bullpen with their new teams.

NL pitchers I recommend despite their failure to appear here include Antonio Alfonseca, Armando Benitez, Brian Boehringer, Rheal Cormier, Will Cunnane, Jayson Durocher, Mike Fetters, Danny Graves, Mike Koplove, Brett Myers(402), John Riedling, Joe Roa(043), Kirk Saarloos(04423), Carlos Silva, Gene Stechschulte, T.J. Tucker, Brandon Villafuerte, Mike Williams, and Masato Yoshii(33334). Please recognize that these are fairly risky or unproven players, but most aren't missing much to at least pick up a 1 rating fairly soon.

Other pitchers who you probably shouldn't deploy right now include Brian Anderson(25441), Jimmy Anderson(32232), Joe Beimel(30522), Mike DeJean, Tom Gordon, Kevin Gryboski, Joey Hamilton(34020), Chris Hammond, Matt Herges, Jason Jennings(53344), Graeme Lloyd, Braden Looper, Matt Mantei, Brian Meadows(34), Dave Mlicki(00303), Pete Munro(42530), Jose Santiago, Jason Simontacchi(31003), Mike Timlin, and Ron Villone(03043).

Today's Fantasy Rx: For teams looking to speculate on 2003 Marlins' saves, I don't expect either Vlad Nunez or Braden Looper to receive the majority of their save opps next season. The former is more valuable pitching multiple innings in middle relief while the latter allows too many homers and lacks both dominance and command. Blaine Neal is the logical favorite as Florida has groomed him for the role, he's closed throughout the minors, and his major league stats are excellent thus far. However since only a miniscule percent of major league closers actually closed in the minors, Carl Pavano is the intriguing dark horse. We've never really liked his skills for starting, but since joining Florida and the bullpen, he's compiled a 13:3 K:BB in 15.2 IP over 12 G with 17 H and 0 HR. Assuming they follow a traditional pattern with their best reliever closing, Neal should close, Pavano and Nunez should work set-up, Looper can handle middle relief, and some combination of Darensbourg, Mairena, Teut, and others will comprise the left-handed portion of the corps. If he's available, you should focus on Neal as the most likely candidate.