Today's Fantasy Rx

On our last day of discussing August trends, I'll review pitchers who, over the past five years, see their ERA rise by at least 1.50 from July to August. I only looked at pitchers who compiled at least a total of 40 IP in both months over the past five years.

Sean Lowe, P, PIT: +3.02 ERA
97-01	GS/G	IP	H/HR	K:BB	W-L/S	ERA
July	6/24	63.1	56/8	34:16	4-3/0	3.41
August	7/20	56	78/9	37:24	0-2/0	6.43

02July	0/9	19	14/1	11:6	2-0/0	1.91

While Lowe's posted promising skill ratios over the past two months, his 18:9 K:BB is only barely acceptable while his 5.9 K/9 doesn't indicate much potential to even see continued success in relief. Given his historical difficulties in August, explore a deal before his value begins dropping. I just don't see Lowe as a viable roto option over the last two months.

Tim Worrell, RP, SF: +2.91 ERA
97-01	GS/G	IP	H/HR	K:BB	W-L/S	ERA
July	0/46	50.2	34/3	49:16	2-2/2	1.42
August	0/56	72.2	80/10	69:27	3-2/0	4.33

02July	0/13	10	6/0	5:3	3-1/0	3.60

Worrell slipped somewhat after not allowing an earned run in June. However aside from a small drop in dominance, his skills remained fairly consistent. Also, as the Giants have returned him to middle relief now that FRod has returned to setup work, Worrell should be more likely to post excellent skills similar to his rates from earlier in the season. We will at least wait in leagues where we own him since we don't expect qualitative problems from him this month.

Julian Tavarez, SP, FLO: +2.79 ERA
97-01	GS/G	IP	H/HR	K:BB	W-L/S	ERA
July	6/46	85.2	85/6	49:28	5-2/0	2.84
August	11/42	88	108/4	32:47	5-4/0	5.63

02July	5/5	25	37/2	9:14	1-4/0	7.56

When a pitcher is significantly below a 1.0 K:BB in his normally successful month, we can't expect him to rebound in a month where he usually pitches terribly. The Marlins' offensive struggles also limit Tavarez's chances for wins, so Deal or cut him immediately.

Randy Wolf, SP, PHI: +2.78 ERA
97-01	GS/G	IP	H/HR	K:BB	W-L/S	ERA
July	13/17	90.2	83/5	75:33	5-3/0	3.97
August	12/12	66.2	87/14	55:37	2-6/0	6.75

02July	5/5	34.1	23/3	30:12	2-1/0	2.88

Between a succession of strong recent PQS scores and very solid skills in July, I don't expect Wolf to lose much momentum this month. Based on his improvement after the All-Star break, he actually seems quite likely to excel for the rest of the season. Especially if you're rebuilding, look to acquire Wolf, he could emerge as a $20+ stud as soon as next season.

Scott Sullivan, RP, CIN: +2.73 ERA
97-01	GS/G	IP	H/HR	K:BB	W-L/S	ERA
July	0/66	94.1	71/10	87:22	3-5/1	2.67
August	0/64	88	87/9	74:41	3-3/2	4.40

02July	0/14	17	20/3	14:5	1-1/1	5.29

A 5.29 ERA is his best monthly mark since his April, and he also hasn't allowed less than a hit per inning since the first month of the season. His 2.0 HR/9 over the last three months is significantly above the target rate for any pitcher, and I see no signs of improvement as his .83 G-F is the second worst ratio of his career. While Sullivan's established himself as one the best and most consistent relievers in the game over the last few years, four straight years of 100+ innings per year finally appear to be limiting his effectiveness. Although I hope he can rebound next season, contenders need to deal or cut Sullivan immediately in favor of someone less likely to wreck your qualitative stats.

Mike Stanton, RP, NYY: +2.65 ERA
97-01	GS/G	IP	H/HR	K:BB	W-L/S	ERA
July	0/49	49	36/3	55:26	3-0/1	2.94
August	0/64	66	80/10	63:29	2-4/2	5.59

02July	0/19	14.2	16/1	9:5	1-0/0	4.30

With Rivera back and Stanton's skills still below the levels we'd prefer, I'm harboring severe worries regarding his potential for success over the rest of the season. His .92 G-F is the worst mark of his career and an indication of potential homer problems. New York should begin resting their relievers for the playoffs beginning any time, and Stanton might even start working only once or twice a week instead of his normal three-to-four games. He might help with some vultured wins, but we'd explore a deal to someone with more faith in his skills.

Brad Radke, SP, MIN: +2.54 ERA
97-01	GS/G	IP	H/HR	K:BB	W-L/S   ERA
July	28/28	197.1	208/17	126:36	15-10/0 3.47
August	27/27	155.2	197/20	98:39	11-12/0 6.01

No July stats.

Radke spent all of June and July on the DL with a pulled right groin, but he pitched great in his first start back against Kansas City. He should at least remain a quality starting option over the last two months as I don't expect his previous problems in August to recur in 2002. Feel free to wait to see if he's recovered from his injury so you at least have a good idea of his actual current value.

Bob Wells, RP, MIN: +2.47 ERA
97-01	GS/G	IP	H/HR	K:BB	W-L/S	ERA
July	0/48	65.2	62/9	52:10	3-2/4	3.84
August	0/53	61.1	75/8	34:17	5-2/4	6.31

02July	0/3	5.2	2/0	2:1	1-0/1	0.00

Wells missed six weeks after surgery to remove bone chips from his right elbow on June 13th. Before he hit the DL, he continued posting great command numbers but allowed a ridiculously high 15 H/9, also struggling with a 1.9 HR/9. Between his injury, weak 2002 ratios, and the development of several very impressive Minnesota relievers, I don't expect Wells to offer much quantitative help. With his qualitative stats also in doubt, you should deal or cut Wells rather than risk ERA/WHIP damage.

Nelson Cruz, P, HOU: +2.45 ERA
97-01	GS/G	IP	H/HR	K:BB	W-L/S	ERA
July	2/27	52.2	46/6	45:12	3-2/1	3.59
August	0/35	51.1	57/11	44:19	3-5/0	5.96

02July	4/7	22.2	19/2	19:8	1-1/0	4.37

The Astros' starting rotation uncertainty means we really don't know whether Cruz will spend the rest of the year starting or in the bullpen. He'll probably grab a few spot starts around semi-regular relief work, but he'll remain rather risky like any Houston pitcher not named Oswalt, Wagner, or Dotel. You can probably at least wait to see if Cruz will continue his fine work from July, but we don't trust him for our contending teams.

Tim Hudson, SP, OAK: +2.29 ERA
97-01	GS/G	IP	H/HR	K:BB	W-L/S	ERA
July	16/16	112.1	90/7	89:36	9-2/0	3.04
August	17/17	103	110/12	80:42	8-4/0	5.33

02July	5/5	32.1	42/2	21:10	2-0/1	3.90

We weren't too pleased to find him grouped with pitchers who struggle in August as he remains an important part of our primary challenge teams. The A's should keep winning after the acquisitions of Durham and Rincon fixed their primary weaknesses of leadoff and left-handed relief, but after posting a 1.61 WHIP in July, I suspect Hudson may also struggle in August. He's too potentially valuable to trade if you're contending, so wait for his PQS scores to start improving while attempting to reserve him against tougher offenses.

Tim Wakefield, P, BOS: +2.19 ERA
97-01	GS/G	IP	H/HR	K:BB	W-L/S   ERA
July	19/35	152.2	138/22	118:17	9-10/6  3.83
August	25/38	175	199/28	122:73	10-14/1 6.02

02July	3/10	32.1	30/3	33:7	3-0/0   4.45

Wakefield should continue to start for the Red Sox, although they could return him to the bullpen at any time. Someone with Wakefield's skills should succeed in almost any role, he's also posted very solid PQS scores in his starts this year. Additionally, he pitches better when left in a particular role. With the Red Sox's surprisingly strong 2002 defense and their improved bullpen, contenders should try to acquire Wakefield to add quality innings and wins.

Andy Ashby, SP, LA: +2.14 ERA
97-01	GS/G	IP	H/HR	K:BB	W-L/S	ERA
July	22/22	154	140/15	101:33	13-5/0	3.10
August	24/24	149.1	187/19	100:40	8-9/0	5.24

02July	5/5	28	37/5	10:10	0-3/0	6.11

He flirted with LPR qualification earlier this year until he largely stopped striking out many hitters. Ashby's disastrous July bodes badly for owners depending on a strong performance from him through September. While he has excelled in two August starts thus far, including not allowing an earned run in 14.1 IP, you should take advantage of this brief improvement to deal him to any interested team.

Pitchers whose ERAs normally rise between 1.50 and 2.10 points in August include Mike Morgan(+2.06 ERA), Dave Weathers(+2.06), Jimmy Anderson(+2.04), Mike Timlin(+1.88), Brett Tomko(+1.79), and Mike DeJean(+1.76).

Normally declining pitchers not currently in the majors include Pat Mahomes(+3.91 ERA), Steve Woodard(+3.81), Ricky Bottalico(+3.79), Wayne Gomes(+3.66), Jose Silva(+3.22), Dennis Cook(+3.11), Alan Mills(+2.70), Jason Johnson(+2.55), Hideki Irabu(+2.36), Bobby Witt(+2.10), Bryce Florie(+2.03), Jim Parque(+1.87), Jaret Wright(+1.75), Jesus Sanchez(+1.64), Jeff Shaw(+1.57), and Hipolito Pichardo(+1.55).

Today's Fantasy Rx: No homer last night for Bonds, so his next chance is this afternoon at 2:30 PM(CDT), a game that WGN is scheduled to carry nationally.

It's also time to register for this year's Fantasy Baseball Symposium at the Arizona Fall League from November 1st-4th. While we'll certainly discuss the highlights after we return, we strongly recommend this weekend to any baseball fan that wants to a enjoy a warm November weekend in Phoenix largely filled with baseball and fantasy baseball discussion. Former Astros' Assistant Scouting Director David Rawnsley will also run a scouting seminar, but registration is limited to only the first fifty people. With the Early Bird registration discount expiring at the end of this month, please register at BBHQ now if you can go, or at least explore the conference site if you want more information.