Today's Fantasy Rx

Continuing with our second day of examination of August trends, I'll review hitters who, over the past five years, lose at least .050 BA and .100 OPS from July to August. I only looked at players who compiled 100 AB in both June and July over the past five years.

I'll discuss in detail everyone with an OPS decline of .185 or more before listing the remaining qualified players.

Ruben Rivera, OF, TEX: -.090 BA; -.282 OPS
97-01	AB	BB:K	BA/OBP/SLG
July	230	22:78	.248/.326/.478
August	260	37:91	.158/.276/.246

02July	65	3:14	.200/.246/.369

Rivera now appears to hold a monopoly on Rangers' CF time with Kapler traded and Hollandsworth injured and probably heading to the DL. He at least displayed solid power during his half-season in AA and AAA, but he still couldn't maintain a BB:K above .5 or a walk rate much above .10. Now Right-handed pitchers are holding Rivera to a .421 OPS in the majors and he lacks a credible left-handed platoon partner. Only wait on Rivera if you're desperate for any quantitative help from your outfield, as an increase in playing time will cause more pain to your BA.

Mike Lieberthal, C, PHI: -.097 BA; -.265 OPS
97-01	AB	BB:K	BA/OBP/SLG
July	362	26:43	.336/.403/.565
August	255	20:38	.239/.299/.404

02July	82	5:7	.317/.371/.476

While not up to his usual standards, Lieberthal still posted impressive averages in July, mostly due to a .91 contact rate, far superior to his .85 mark from the rest of the season. We put less faith in temporary jumps in contact rate than in plate discipline skills like BB:K and walk rate, so as his walk rate also deteriorated in July, his improved contact rate was likely the result of simply swinging at more pitches, not an indication of developed hitting ability. The combination of a season of catching nearly every day, playing for a team out of contention, weak batting skills, and an unfriendly historical trends suggests you should try to deal Lieberthal now if you can obtain a credible replacement in the trade.

David Ortiz, 1B, DH: -.100 BA; -.262 OPS
97-01	AB	BB:K	BA/OBP/SLG
July	168	34:24	.321/.437/.506
August	267	34:70	.221/.310/.371

02July	79	11:14	.380/.462/.772

A scorching hot July that included eight homers, double his previous total on the year, finally allowed Ortiz to approach his probable draft value in most leagues. His .14 walk rate wasn't that close to his normal .20 in July, and with his contact rate actually below his usual level, I'll be surprised if he can hold an OPS above .900 in August. Three Twins appear on today's list, and while they should still run away with the AL Central, they might not continue their excellent offensive production. Explore a deal for Ortiz as his value won't return to its current level until at least next season.

Trot Nixon, OF, BOS: -.083 BA; -.252 OPS
97-01	AB	BB:K	BA/OBP/SLG
July	163	25:36	.337/.421/.589
August	272	32:50	.254/.329/.430

02July	109	12:20	.330/.392/.661

He still struggles terribly against left-handers, barely posting a .645 OPS compared to a solid .903 against righties. However Grady Little finally let him play every day in July, and Nixon responded with an OPS over 240 points above his previous monthly high this year. Unfortunately only his power showed a marked increase from past years, and we still harbor definite questions about his plate discipline. The 28-year-old has passed the normal time for a true breakout season, and he doesn't appear overly likely to reach the 30/100 power production level any time soon unless he can maintain these power gains. Considering his overall production thus far in 2002, you should probably wait to see if he'll take the next step unless you can upgrade through trade.

Preston Wilson, OF, FLO: -.086 BA; -.247 OPS
97-01	AB	BB:K	BA/OBP/SLG
July	166	20:40	.325/.398/.554
August	264	22:85	.239/.303/.402

02July	75	5:14	.267/.321/.453

Aside from his normally helpful HR/SB combo, Wilson has offered very little to his roto teams this year. The Cliff Floyd and Ryan Dempster trades seem to have deflated the Marlins' offensive production, Wilson wasn't even able to post his normal .12 July walk rate. You certainly can't count on him to provide much RBI or Runs' help, and his BA remains quite deadly. Take advantage of any offered deal if you need offensive help in more than just two categories.

Juan Pierre, OF, COL: -.111 BA; -.234 OPS
97-01	AB	BB:K	BA/OBP/SLG
July	107	4:5	.393/.421/.505
August	110	5:5	.282/.319/.373

02July	89	5:5	.281/.326/.315

He's easily the most disappointing player in the game for us this year, and besides putting a severe crimp in the success of our Challenge teams, he's also one of the half-dozen worse offensive players in baseball. As I suggested yesterday, a probable August surge from Payton could leave Pierre benched and headed out of town. Pierre's reportedly an extremely conscientious worker who will attempt to rebound next season, but as Colorado needs to analyze their three new outfielders, you probably should explore a deal to any owner who believes he'll rebound this year just because the Rockies will spend a significant amount of time in Coors.

Chipper Jones, OF, ATL: -.052 BA; -.228 OPS
97-01	AB	BB:K	BA/OBP/SLG
July	476	89:56	.349/.448/.670
August	536	79:77	.297/.384/.506

02July	77	25:13	.273/.448/.468

Players with traditional American last names don't fair well in August, as two Joneses, three Davises, an Anderson, a Walker, and a Wilson all showed up on today's list. While perhaps only a spurious factor, the move to the outfield seems to have sharply curtailed Chipper's offensive value. He's still a productive player and owns solid batting skills, but he's not hitting with the same power as he displayed in past years. Remain open to a trade if you can get pre-season value from a Braves' fan, but we're going to wait and hope that some team will push the Braves, forcing Chipper to post some impressive numbers for the stretch run.

Jacque Jones, OF, MIN: -.055 BA; -.207 OPS
97-01	AB	BB:K	BA/OBP/SLG
July	228	14:45	.311/.354/.522
August	262	14:50	.256/.295/.374

02July	87	5:22	.287/.368/.540

While Ron Gardenhire has at least let him bat against lefties, Jones is only holding a .523 OPS in those 106 at-bats. I suspect he's the most likely candidate to depart Minnesota this off-season, although Doug Mientkiewicz and David Ortiz could also leave town. The Twins need to make room for Cuddyer, Restovich, and Kielty in full-time roles, leaving only perhaps Mientkiewicz at first, and then they have players like Matt LeCroy, Dustan Mohr, Todd Sears, Javier Valentin, and Mike Ryan who all appear ready for bigger parts in the offense. With Lew Ford also rising quickly through the system, only Luis Rivas and Cristian Guzman appear largely guaranteed to remain Twins for the next few years. No system can match their quality and quantity of potential offensive stars at AAA and the majors, and they also have stud prospects like Justin Morneau and Joe Mauer rising quickly. No team can fit more than nineteen potential starters into nine positions, and regardless of his fielding gifts, Jones' difficulties against lefties, pending arbitration, and normal August slump make him someone you should actively attempt to deal.

Tony Graffanino, IF, CHW: -.062 BA; -.200 OPS
97-01	AB	BB:K	BA/OBP/SLG
July	110	12:18	.300/.363/.500
August	248	22:54	.238/.300/.363

02July	47	4:5	.277/.346/.511

Kenny Williams waited as long as possible to deal Durham and Lofton, giving Willie Harris the necessary minor league experience to enable Williams to feel comfortable in promoting him. With Joe Crede also finally receiving his chance to start, Graffanino will no longer have many opportunities to play unless Jerry Manuel shifts Harris to center field. Tony G's skills remain quite solid, but without an established role, you should preempt an August slump by attempting to deal Graffanino now to any team needing credible MIF help.

Corey Koskie, 3B, MIN: -.057 BA; -.200 OPS
97-01	AB	BB:K	BA/OBP/SLG
July	219	35:51	.338/.431/.607
August	249	32:48	.281/.368/.470

02July	93	18:30	.355/.469/.538

Our third Twin of the day is the most likely to remain with the team next year, and given the problems at third base throughout roto, he's also the player you'd generally want to keep. I don't believe Koskie will provide much SB help over the remainder of the year, and his normal hot month-cold month pattern leaves him as someone we wouldn't mind trading. However he remains in the middle of a productive lineup, and even a month or two with an OPS around .800 won't harm his value. Wait for more quantitative category help from him unless you're offered a fantastic package in return.

Aaron Boone, 3B, CIN: -.069 BA; -.198 OPS
97-01	AB	BB:K	BA/OBP/SLG
July	211	15:26	.355/.397/.573
August	255	14:51	.286/.333/.439

02July	105	12:12	.324/.398/.543

Boone's speed explosion has propelled many teams to the first division this year, and he should easily pass thirty steals by the end of the season. His excellent July plate discipline bodes well for him continuing to post a .900+ OPS, but his monthly production wasn't even at his normal standards from a power perspective. You should probably take advantage of a hopeful SB cushion to deal Boone now as I don't expect his value can climb much higher.

Henry Blanco, C, ATL: -.071 BA; -.188 OPS
97-01	AB	BB:K	BA/OBP/SLG
July	154	18:29	.260/.335/.422
August	206	25:48	.189/.278/.291

02July	39	1:10	.231/.238/.333

Javy Lopez's injury forces Blanco back into a full-time job, and while this might please Atlanta's starters, the extra at-bats with a poor BA should negate any meager RBI benefit you might have gained from rostering Blanco. He's the weakest offensive threat on a team with several nearly automatic outs, and now that he's moved past a brief period of productivity, deal or cut Blanco for someone who won't wreck your qualitative numbers.

Garrett Anderson, OF, ANA: -.056 BA; -.188 OPS
97-01	AB	BB:K	BA/OBP/SLG
July	529	37:74	.333/.374/.544
August	560	25:74	.277/.310/.420

02July	103	3:12	.301/.315/.485

Anderson has remained consistently productive throughout this season, so I suspect that as his July numbers weren't as strong as those in past years, he also won't suffer much of a drop in August. The Angels' offense should begin slumping as I believe they're destined to finish with a worse record the Yankees, Athletics, Red Sox, and Mariners, but Anderson will continue to carry many fantasy teams with solid contributions in five categories. Listen to offers and feel free to trade him if you can improve elsewhere, although we'd probably wait unless we held a huge RBI lead.

Players that qualified but lost less than .185 OPS include Orlando Palmeiro(-.099 BA/-.184 OPS), Ben Davis(-.078/-.183), Fred McGriff(-.068/-.170), Kevin Millar(-.078/-.160), Todd Walker(-.055/-.158), Raul Ibanez(-.077/-.138), Lance Berkman(-.055/-.138), Rich Aurilia(-.051/-.131), and Joe Randa(-.059/-.118).

A few players qualified but aren't currently in the majors, including Harold Baines(-.076 BA/-.220 OPS), Paul O'Neill(-.062/-.177), Eric Davis(-.051/-.170), Greg Vaughn(-.057/-.161), Peter Bergeron(-.081/-.151), and Russ Davis(-.053/-.116).

Today's Fantasy Rx: With most leagues either rapidly approaching or potentially past their trade deadlines, if you can still make deals, you need to send out offers immediately. In keeper leagues, explore the possibility of moving players like Kevin Millar and Raul Ibanez, who are two of a few dozen players who we suspect could lose significant playing time in both the last weeks of 2002 and in future seasons. Please e-mail me if you have questions about specific players.