Today's Fantasy Rx

As in every month, I'll spend the first four days of this week on players with significant statistical changes between last month and this month. To qualify for consideration, a player must have 100 AB in both July and August over the last five years, and show a change, positive or negative, of .050 BA and .100 OPS between the two months.

Over two dozen players improved by at least that much this month, while almost thirty declined by similar amounts. Today we'll focus on improving hitters, tomorrow will be declining hitters, and the following two days we'll spend on improving and then declining pitchers.

I'll discuss in detail the current major leaguers with an OPS improvement of .170 or more before I list the remaining qualified players.

Richie Sexson, 1B, MIL: +.094 BA; +.247 OPS
97-01	AB	BB:K	BA/OBP/SLG
July	245	20:69	.224/.283/.465
August	384	43:101	.318/.393/.602

02July	84	13:19	.298/.400/.560

Since the All-Star break, Sexson's maintained an OPS around .885 while exchanging 30 points of slugging for 30 points of OBP. A .15 walk rate indicates that he's finally showing some plate discipline, and hopefully his patience will continue as he enters his best historical month of production. He appears past his hamstring problems, and the only worrisome sign is a 1.36 G-F, his worst mark since 1998. Overall he still seems primed for a strong second half, and as the Brewers' lineup remains mostly intact, Sexson should be on your list of guys to acquire.

Jeff Kent, 2B, SF: +.101 BA; +.245 OPS
97-01	AB	BB:K	BA/OBP/SLG
July	431	40:81	.234/.303/.441
August	474	56:80	.335/.407/.582

02July	103	5:14	.379/.413/.670

A third straight month with an OPS over 1.080 would thrust Kent into yet another MVP race against his superior teammate. The only problem with his numbers in July is his worst walk rate of the year, and if he's losing patience in the #3 hole, we might not see his normal August improvement. Of course he'll still put up great numbers even if he loses 100 points of OPS, and with the addition of Kenny Lofton and a hopefully healthy Bonds around him in the lineup, Kent looks primed for an excellent final two months. Certainly wait for that production if you already own him.

Bill Mueller, 3B, CHC: +.058 BA; +.235 OPS
97-01	AB	BB:K	BA/OBP/SLG
July	286	30:45	.252/.326/.369
August	381	75:49	.310/.425/.465

02July	90	17:13	.278/.393/.433

We still believe Corey Patterson needs to hit second to help his development, but Mueller has earned a slot at the top of the lineup, and with Mark Bellhorn continuing his excellent production, the Cubs have the happy problem of two qualified third baseman. Fortunately Bobby Hill's impending promotion and Mueller's free agency should keep Bellhorn at the hot corner while Mueller switches organizations to a team like the Mets, Brewers, Indians, Royals, or one of the other dozen teams that could use a third baseman capable of hitting second. Hold onto him if you already own him, and between Mueller's normal August improvement and the Cubs heading into Colorado this weekend, acquire him if you need BA help.

Greg Myers, C, OAK: +.054 BA; +.223 OPS
97-01	AB	BB:K	BA/OBP/SLG
July	101	6:17	.198/.243/.317
August	147	20:29	.252/.341/.442

02July	32	5:6	.188/.297/.219

While we don't expect any tremendously helpful stats from Myers, his skills have slowly improved throughout the year. He's likely available in many leagues, so if you need to fix your second catcher slot, try to acquire Myers.

Melvin Mora, SS/UT, BAL: +.087 BA; +.215 OPS
97-01	AB	BB:K	BA/OBP/SLG
July	192	17:37	.193/.269/.286
August	214	20:36	.280/.354/.416

02July	100	5:18	.2340/.304/.340

Perhaps his duties as spokesman for the anti-zero population growth lobby interfered with his production in July. Now that he's staying at shortstop and not bringing five gloves to every game, we see no reason why he can't continue his 2002 pattern of a .908 OPS month followed by a .650 OPS or less month. Both historical and current trends suggest he should excel in August, as does a relatively soft schedule that includes home-and-away series against Detroit and Tampa Bay, which will boost the Orioles' standing. Now is a perfect time to acquire Mora to improve your middle infield for the stretch run.

Ichiro Suzuki, OF, SEA: +.161 BA; +.202 OPS
97-01	AB	BB:K	BA/OBP/SLG
July	112	5:11	.268/.308/.438
August	119	6:12	.429/.461/.487

02July	106	8:9	.321/.368/.481

Ichiro has experienced more difficulties in August than in any month so far in his two-season major league career. However unlike 2001, he's maintained excellent plate discipline throughout this season, making him a more patient and therefore more valuable hitter. If there's any way for you to acquire him, he's still the most potent offensive threat in the AL for BA, SB, and runs.

Greg Norton, IF, COL: +.088 BA; +.187 OPS
97-01	AB	BB:K	BA/OBP/SLG
July	141	18:35	.199/.296/.355
August	174	16:48	.287/.349/.489

02July	11	2:2	.364/.462/.364

After this week at home and next week on the road, Colorado will begin six weeks spent almost entirely at home. Four Rockies qualified for today's list, and while Norton normally doesn't see much playing time, he could easily take advantage of an extended Coorsstand to post some helpful numbers. An above average BA, a couple homers, and a dozen RBI look like reasonable goals for the back-up, and he offers more upside than most UT players available for you to acquire.

Kenny Lofton, OF, SF: +.067 BA; +.186 OPS
97-01	AB	BB:K	BA/OBP/SLG
July	400	49:71	.263/.344/.385
August	452	61:57	.330/.408/.507

02July	84	9:10	.298/.366/.607

Lofton was the early favorite for best free agent signing after a fantastic April, and yet over the past five years, he performs even better in August than during his historically excellent Aprils. While he's likely not available in many leagues after FAAB bidding following his move to San Francisco, he should rebound very strongly as one of the better deadline pick-ups. Particularly if you need a BA boost, Lofton appears a good candidate to acquire for immediate help.

Joe Girardi, C, CHC: +.067 BA; +.185 OPS
97-01	AB	BB:K	BA/OBP/SLG
July	265	16:45	.257/.300/.343
August	262	19:32	.324/.370/.458

02July	10	3:1	.200/.357/.400

Three Cubs made today's list, and with Sammy also normally heating up towards the end of the year, hopefully he'll finally start racking some RBI. The combination of Girardi's recent injury, resulting DL trip, and Bruce Kimm's sole good decision to play Todd Hundley nearly every day have forced a likely severe drop in Girardi's value. With Chicago heading into Colorado this weekend, Houston in two weeks, and Milwaukee in three weeks, Girardi should earn most of his 2002 value by the beginning of September. If you need catching help after losing someone like Javy Lopez, see if you can acquire Girardi.

Keith Osik, C, PIT: +.055 BA; +.184 OPS
97-01	AB	BB:K	BA/OBP/SLG
July	143	12:22	.217/.289/.259
August	103	12:13	.272/.353/.379

02July	15	1:4	.067/.125/.067

Pittsburgh fans and roto owners know there's very little benefit to rostering Keith Osik for most of the year. Even a normal August upswing doesn't change our assessment of Osik's relative uselessness, and Kendall and Craig Wilson should continue monopolizing the vast majority of Pirates' catcher at-bats. Deal or cut Osik if he's on your roster for any reason other than a lost bet.

Jay Payton, OF, COL: +.066 BA; +.182 OPS
97-01	AB	BB:K	BA/OBP/SLG
July	168	13:23	.214/.273/.280
August	164	12:25	.280/.333/.402

02July	74	7:6	.351/.402/.500

The combination of Payton's normal August surge and Juan Pierre's August swoon could leave the latter riding the pine while the former begins compiling impressive Coors-aided stats. I'm also rather shocked by his surprisingly impressive July, particularly his excellent plate discipline, which suggests Payton could post a 1.000+ OPS for the balance of the year. He also could establish complete control over a Rockies' outfield slot, making him a prime target to acquire for both contending and rebuilding teams.

Adrian Beltre, 3B, LA: +.059 BA; +.169 OPS
97-01	AB	BB:K	BA/OBP/SLG
July	374	25:73	.246/.298/.377
August	371	33:60	.305/.361/.485

02July	90	2:14	.300/.319/.567

While I'd hoped Beltre's July would precede continued 2002 success, his skills don't support anything near an OPS of .886. New Dodger Tyler Houston could easily snag a significant portion of Beltre's playing time rather than forcing a platoon across the diamond with the usually unimpressive Eric Karros. If a rebuilding team shows interest in Beltre, look to deal him for someone with a higher likelihood of immediately helpful production.

Mike Mordecai, IF, FLO: +.068 BA; +.171 OPS
97-01	AB	BB:K	BA/OBP/SLG
July	111	10:24	.234/.298/.315
August	172	10:28	.302/.348/.436

02July	22	0:5	.227/.227/.318

Any roto contribution from Mordecai would likely be more a product of luck than planning as both his playing time and production remain quite irregular. He possesses limited batting skills at best, and even a repeat of his normal August improvement would only provide a minor boost to your BA. Only wait for that help if you can't find a middle infield alternative.

Players that qualified but posted an OPS improvement under .170 include Marty Cordova(+.062 BA/+.169 OPS), Bernie Williams(+.058/+.168), Quinton McCracken(+.066/+.166), Todd Helton(+.078/+.158), Alex S. Gonzalez(+.074/+.141), and Larry Walker(+.054/+.121).

A few players qualified but aren't currently in the majors, including Rob Ducey(+.091 BA/+.339 OPS), Glenallen Hill(+.081/+.301), Jose Offerman(+.056/+.142), Danny Bautista(+.051/+.132), and Dave Magadan(+.066/+.110).

Today's Fantasy Rx: With four Rockies and three Cubs showing significant historical improvement in August, we see no reason why both teams won't rack up substantial run totals over the weekend. While we've always limited our baseball speculation to fantasy teams in the past, we might be interested if anyone wants to recommend a quality online sportsbook where we could take advantage of the humidor-inspired depression in run expectation to pick up a few bucks by betting the over on total runs scored in the series.