Today's Fantasy Rx

Arizona: John Patterson, RH Starter
1-0 on 10:3 K:BB in 13.1 IP over 2 GS with 8 H, 1 HR, and a .68 ERA.

With a 55 PQS log after two starts against San Diego, Patterson has established he can beat relatively weak offenses who strike out a lot. He's spent five relatively unproductive seasons in the minors and looked quite good before his call-up as he posted a 6-4 record on 71:29 K:BB in 80.1 IP over 13 GS with 84 H and a 4.71 ERA. His major problem was a 1.2 homer rate, a number I don't expect to decrease with him running a .34 G-F ratio after only two starts in the big leagues. We really like his long-term potential and believe the Diamondbacks will give him every chance to succeed as the last promising prospect from the 1997 class of loophole free agents, though Travis Lee, Matt White, and Bobby Seay haven't even approached the level of play expected of them. If Helling's injury continues to trouble him, Patterson should wind up as Arizona's third best starter by the playoffs. He's a great target for keeper leagues, and we're even employing him for our contending teams where possible, so seek to acquire him if available.

June Overachiever: Randy Johnson, LH Future Hall of Fame Ace
Old stats: 12-2 on 155:33 K:BB in 124.2 IP over 17 GS with 97 H, 14 HR, and a 2.38 ERA.
Recommendation: acquire.
Stats since recommendation: 3-2 on 60:27 K:BB in 48 IP over 7 GS with 47 H, 6 HR, and a 3.75 ERA.

Previous Overachievers: April: Byung-Hyun Kim, RH Closer; May: Curt Schilling, RH Ace

Atlanta: Kerry Ligtenberg, RH Reliever
2-3 on 38:23 K:BB in 45 IP over 34 G with 35 H, 4 HR, and a 2.00 ERA.

I may very well wind up covering all six members of Atlanta's exceptional bullpen in this space by the end of the year. While I suspect Ligtenberg's .75 G-F ratio, which is actually only slightly worse than his .86 historical mark, will lead to homer problems by the end of the year, he's provided a great deal of help to his lucky owners this year. I've been generally recommending against him and avoiding him for our teams due to his weak command, but his 1.7 K:BB is deceiving. After subtracting his poor April in which he posted a 9:14 K:BB in 11.2 IP while allowing 14 hits and 2 homers, Ligtenberg's stats looks excellent at 29:9 K:BB in 33.1 IP with 21 H and 2 homers, closer-caliber numbers for most teams. If Smoltz moves back to the rotation in 2003, Ligtenberg should be the top candidate to fill that role for the Braves. Replacing a poor starter or even unproductive reliever can still provide needed help for most team's qualitative numbers, and Ligtenberg remains someone you want to acquire regardless of your current standing.

June Overachiever: Chris Hammond, LH Reliever
Old stats: 6-2 on 34:19 K:BB in 39.2 IP over 30 G with 25 H, 1 HR, and a 1.59 ERA.
Recommendation: wait.
Stats since recommendation: 0-0 on 13:7 K:BB in 14.2 IP over 14 H with 14 H, 0 HR, and a .61 ERA.

Previous Overachievers: April: Darren Holmes, RH Reliever; May: Kevin Gryboski, RH Reliever

Chicago Cubs: Carlos Zambrano, RH Starter
2-2 on 48:27 K:BB in 48 IP over 6 GS(22G) with 46 H, 5 HR, and a 3.56 ERA.

Even though he's pitched quite well as a starter, Zambrano may miss a start or three if Bere ever returns and the Cubs then throw him out there in an unlikely attempt to deal the pending free agent. Only an early departure Wednesday due to some soreness in a right upper-arm muscle mars his current 33540 PQS log, and his 34:15 K:BB in 32.2 IP over 6 GS with 29 H and 4 homers is a must better skills foundation than his 14:12 K:BB as a reliever. Along with a solid 1.63 G-F ratio, Zambrano owns a set of skills while starting that some Shandlerphiles might miss in a perfunctory glance at his numbers, not realizing that he ditched his control problems when he moved into the rotation. He'll likely cost too much in trade from most owners, but Zambrano's certainly worth any wait from a mild injury or Bere sojourn, and you could even try grabbing him from a distracted owner.

June Overachiever: Matt Clement, RH Starter
Old stats: 5-5 on 95:37 K:BB in 96.2 IP over 15 GS with 75 H, 10 HR, and a 3.82 ERA.
Recommendation: acquire.
Stats since recommendation: 3-2 on 44:16 K:BB in 39 IP over 6 GS with 32 H, 2 HR, and a 3.69.

Previous Overachievers: April: Juan Cruz, RH Starter; May: Antonio Alfonesca, RH Closer

Cincinnati: Jimmy Haynes, RH Starter
11-6 on 77:49 K:BB in 127.2 IP over 22 GS with 137 H, 15 HR, and a 4.16 ERA.

He was the first starter I examined when discussing likely second half pitcher problems, and aside from any double start weeks in deep leagues where we own him, Haynes won't see much more time in our lineup. Prior to the break, he'd put up a respectable 24424, but now he's slipped to a 5432, a poor trend for any pitcher. He's only completed the seventh inning twice this year, falls short of all our LPR target ratios, and a pitcher with only an x rating over the last three years normally offers little upside. Haynes should be near the top of any list of tradebait, so deal him when you have the chance.

June Overachiever: Luis Pineda, RH Swingman
Old stats: 1-3 on 31:22 K:BB in 32 IP over 25 G(1GS) with 22 H, 3 HR, and a 2.81 ERA.
Recommendation: deal.
Stats since recommendation: 0-0 on 0:2 K:BB in .1 IP over 1 GS with 3 H, 1 HR, and a 135.00 ERA before hitting the DL with tendinitis in his right shoulder.

Previous Overachievers: April: Elmer Dessens, RH Starter; May: Chris Reitsma, RH Starter

Colorado: Justin Speier, RH Reliever
4-0 on 31:13 K:BB in 33.1 IP over 34 G with 25 H, 1 HR, and a 3.24 ERA.

Jose Jimenez will retain significant value even if his ERA implodes as the Rockies spend a nice majority of August and September at home. Unfortunately Speier could lose much of his current lineup viability with only one or two poor outings. Despite maturing into an apparently excellent setup man over the last few seasons, we harbor concerns over his immediate future. A .59 G-F ratio, even worse than his .67 career mark, indicates he's due for an immediate increase in homers allowed, thereby surrendering his primary asset of qualitative stat help. Perhaps the combination of a low 6.8 hit rate and poor G-F indicates he allows a lot of shallow pop-ups, but pitchers with a G-F incongruous with their homer rate should see an ERA jump. See if you can deal Speier to anyone needing ERA help that believes in Humidor Power.

June Overachiever: Dennys Reyes, LH Reliever
Old stats: 0-1 on 24:20 K:BB in 31 IP over 34 G with 25 H, 0 HR, and a 3.19 ERA.
Recommendation: deal.
Stats since recommendation: 0-0 on 6:4 K:BB in 9.1 IP over 7 G with 18 H, 1 HR, and a 7.71 ERA.

Previous Overachievers: April: Jason Jennings, RH Starter; May: Denny Stark, RH Starter

Florida: Carl Pavano, RH Reliever
3-9 on 61:33 K:BB in 85.1 IP over 14 GS(23G) with 107 H, 14 HR, and a 5.70 ERA.

Ignoring the above stats which include his starts, Pavano's compiled three Holds while posting a 10:2 K:BB in 11 IP over 8 G with 9 H, 0 HR, and a 1.64 ERA since moving to the bullpen in Florida. A 13-11 G-F is also at least decent, setting Pavano up as a potential closer candidate beginning at any time. Vlad Nunez has pitched well overall, but no manager would like his seven blown saves, and Braden Looper is not a viable alternative. Nunez's only other internal competition is Blaine Neal, and teams seem more comfortable shifting established starters to close than promoting minor leaguers directly into a high profile position. Now, I don't expect Pavano to maintain a 1.64 ERA, and all his historical skill ratios are weak. Nevertheless, I like his general profile in the bullpen much more than as a starter, so while he's a potentially superb $1 keeper for rebuilding teams, he also shouldn't hurt contenders that want to acquire him now.

June Overachiever: Michael Tejera, LH Swingman
Old stats: 3-1 on 29:22 K:BB in 48.1 IP over 28 G(4GS) with 41 H, 4 HR, and a 3.17 ERA.
Recommendation: deal.
Stats since recommendation: 3-3 on 32:18 K:BB in 39.1 IP over 6 GS with 44 H, 6 HR, and a 4.81 ERA.

Previous Overachievers: April: A.J. Burnett, RH Starter; May: Hansel Izquierdo, RH Swingman

Houston: Octavio Dotel, RH Reliever
5-3 and 4 Saves on 82:21 K:BB in 66 IP over 55 G with 42 H, 7 HR, and a 2.18 ERA.

Dotel might be having a better overall year than last season despite a very slow start. Now both his 3.9 K:BB and 5.7 H/9 are career-best levels. My concern is his consistently terrible G-F ratio, as after improving to .79 last year, he's fallen back to .52 this year, which was also his approximate 2000 rate. Dotel posted a great .4 HR/9 in 2001, but considering his current G-F is nearly identical to his 2000 mark, we'd expect a 2002 HR/9 closer to his 1.9 from 2000 than his actual 1.0. Even a slight rise would drop his value a few dollars, and with Billy Wagner hopefully just warming up for a strong stretch run, I don't expect Dotel to contribute many more saves. Explore a potential deal as his value shouldn't rise higher this year.

June Overachiever: Kirk Saarloos, RH Starter
Old stats: 0-2 on 5:4 K:BB in 6.2 IP over 2 GS with 16 H, 1 HR, and a 16.20 ERA.
Recommendation: wait.
Stats since recommendation: 3-0 on 16:4 K:BB in 22.1 IP over 4 GS with 21 H, 4 HR, and a 3.63 ERA.

Previous Overachievers: April: Dave Mlicki, RH Starter; May: Ricky Stone, RH Reliever

Los Angeles: Odalis Perez, LH Starter
10-7 on 101:21 K:BB in 144.1 IP over 21 GS with 125 H, 13 HR, and a 3.31 ERA.

He posted an excellent 5 start and appears recovered after a skipped start and a trip home to the Dominican, so perhaps he can avoid late-season burnout after a slightly worrisome 43432 PQS stretch. Most of his excellent ratios appear the result of natural skill development over the past few seasons, and his 4.8 K:BB especially offers hope for continued success. Unfortunately his G-F is in its third straight year of free fall, beginning at 3.14 in limited action in 1998, and then falling to 2.14 in 1999, 1.60 last season, and 1.35 this year. His value has probably dropped a little since the All-Star break, so unless you receive excellent value in trade, wait in the expectation that he'll continue to rank among the best starters in the league.

June Overachiever: Kazuhisa Ishii, LH Starter
Old stats: 11-3 on 91:58 K:BB in 91 IP over 15 GS with 79 H, 7 HR, and a 3.36 ERA.
Recommendation: wait.
Stats since recommendation: 1-4 on 26:26 K:BB in 32.1 IP over 6 GS with 29 H, 6 HR, and a 5.29 ERA.

Previous Overachievers: April: Omar Daal, LH Swingman; May: Eric Gagne, RH Closer

Milwaukee: Jayson Durocher, RH Reliever
1-0 on 20:11 K:BB in 22 IP over 17 G with 16 H, 2 HR, and a 2.05 ERA.

While Luis Vizcaino has a nagging G-F problem that could results in a quickly rising homer rate and DeJean waits for the ninth innings with gas can in hand, Durocher's impressed everyone in his debut season. We expected him to succeed but I'd be happy with a sub-4.00 ERA. His 4.5 BB/9 is the largest sign of troubles, and since he posted MLE walk rates of 5.3 and 6.0 over the last two years, I'm not sure he'll remedy this problem in the near future. The most we can expect of Durocher is a high single-digit value as a capable setup man, making him someone you could acquire if you need roster filler or even some ERA help.

June Overachiever: Valerio de los Santos, LH Reliever
Old stats: 1-2 on 13:8 K:BB in 18.1 IP over 13 G with 9 H, 0 HR, and a 2.94 ERA.
Recommendation: deal.
Stats since recommendation: 1-0 on 12:7 K:BB in 16.1 IP over 13 G with 11 H, 1 HR, and a 1.65 ERA.

Previous Overachievers: April: Luis Vizcaino, RH Reliever; May: Mike DeJean, RH Closer-for-Now

Montreal: Joey Eischen, LH Reliever
2-1 on 31:10 K:BB in 32.1 IP over 36 G with 30 H, 1 HR, and a 1.67 ERA.

Eischen has only hinted at this level of skill in the majors prior to this season, although his 2001 AAA season included a 54:11 K:BB in 52 IP. A 3.29 G-F is approaching double his ratio from last year, so his incredible .3 HR/9 rate seems sustainable. With Scott Stewart dominating lefties in the late innings, Montreal can leave Eischen in a specialist role even though he's holding a sub-.650 OOPS against batters on both sides of the plate. While I don't expect him to find a greater role this season, as he's also likely available in the vast majority of leagues, look to acquire him if you need a highly competent middle reliever.

June Overachiever: Tomokazu Ohka, RH Starter
Old stats: 7-4 on 59:23 K:BB in 92.1 IP over 15 GS(16G) with 95 H, 8 HR, and a 3.02 ERA.
Recommendation: acquire.
Stats since recommendation: 1-2 on 24:12 K:BB in 37.1 IP over 6 GS with 43 H, 5 HR, and a 4.82 ERA.

Previous Overachievers: April: T.J. Tucker, RH Reliever; May: Matt Herges, RH Short Reliever

New York Mets: Pedro Astacio, RH Starter
10-3 on 111:45 K:BB in 131.1 IP over 20 GS with 114 H, 15 HR, and a 3.08 ERA.

Astacio's success defies both those who don't believe in the negative effects of Coors towards pitching and those, like us, who suspected he couldn't continue pitching without surgery to repair a torn labrum. His shoulder could still require surgery at any time, but he's given the Mets a second ace to go with Al Leiter as long as he stays healthy. A 20245 5-start PQS log suggests he's approaching an immediate run of dominance even as his 7.6 K/9 isn't as good he's managed in past years. Astacio's 1.01 G-F is the worst mark of his career, so we expect his homer rate will rise before the end of the season, but he should still be a very viable starting option. If you can afford his injury risk, look to acquire Astacio if you need starting pitching help.

June Overachiever: Mark Guthrie, LH Reliever
Old stats: 2-0 on 20:7 K:BB in 19.1 IP over 31 G with 12 H, 1 HR, and a 1.86 ERA.
Recommendation: acquire.
Stats since recommendation: 3-0 on 14:5 K:BB in 16 IP over 18 G with 7 H, 0 HR, and a 0.00 ERA.

Previous Overachievers: April: Grant Roberts, RH Reliever; May: Steve Trachsel, RH Starter

Philadelphia: Jose Mesa, RH Closer
29 Saves on 47:26 K:BB in 52 IP over 52 G with 50 H, 4 HR, and a 3.29 ERA.

Mesa might exceed last year's total of 42 saves if he continues his current rate, but neither the save total nor his ERA seem commensurate with a 1.8 K:BB, far worse than the 3.0 K:BB he managed last season. There's nothing wrong with his hit or homer rate; only his 4.5 BB/9 seems overly problematic. Even his 1.28 G-F, while not wonderful, is superior to his career 1.18 mark. While Mesa appears vulnerable to additional problems, particularly with qualitative statistics, you can probably safely wait on him if you need his saves.

June Overachiever: Carlos Silva, RH Reliever
Old stats: 1-0 on 25:11 K:BB in 36.1 IP over 30 G with 38 H, 2 HR, and a 2.48 ERA.
Recommendation: acquire.
Stats since recommendation: 1-0 on 6:5 K:BB in 19 IP over 17 G with 27 H, 2 HR, and a 6.16 ERA.

Previous Overachievers: April: Cliff Politte, RH Reliever; May: Vicente Padilla, RH Starter

Pittsburgh: Josh Fogg, RH Starter
10-7 on 71:43 K:BB in 137 IP over 22 GS with 138 H, 21 HR, and a 4.10 ERA.

Rarely does a single trade not only yield two of the top twenty starters in the league but also the two best rookie starting pitchers in the league. Both Kip Wells and Fogg are top Rookie of the Year candidates, and even though Fogg's slipped since his incredible run to begin the year, he's still producing for both the Pirates and his roto owners. The diminishing dominance and developing command problems definitely worry me, and his 30042 5-start PQS log also doesn't impress me. At least his 1.34 G-F suggest potential for improvement in his 1.4 HR/9, although his overall skills appear rather weak, more in line with his questionable MLEs from the past couple years than his early success this season. Contenders need to seriously explore a deal involving Fogg, especially as his likely inexpensive salary makes him a very attractive keeper for rebuilding teams.

June Overachiever: Mike Fetters, RH Reliever
Old stats: 0-0 on 26:17 K:BB in 27.2 IP over 29 G with 25 H, 3 HR, and a 3.25 ERA.
Recommendation: wait.
Stats since recommendation: 1-0 on 8:4 K:BB in 9.1 IP over 12 H with 4 H, 0 HR, and a 2.89 ERA.

Previous Overachievers: April: Joe Beimel, LH Reliever; May: Kip Wells, RH Starter

San Diego: Jake Peavy, RH Starter
2-4 on 23:14 K:BB in 31.1 IP over 6 GS with 34 H, 3 HR, and a 5.46 ERA.

Peavy is yet another top Padre prospect who GM Kevin Towers unnecessarily jumped completely past AAA. While he's fulfilled his promise thus far with an intriguing 504540 PQS log, he'll continue to struggle if left in the majors, alternating occasional disasters with likely increasing strings of dominant performances. Most prospect analysts ranked Peavy among the top three pitching prospects in baseball before the season, and he's still an excellent candidate to develop into an ace. However his short-term prognosis isn't as bright, and contenders should look to deal Peavy to a rebuilding team, although definitely demand a significant bounty in return.

June Overachiever: Oliver Perez, LH Starter
Old stats: 2-0 on 13:9 K:BB in 18.2 IP over 3 GS with 15 H, 1 HR, and a 2.41 ERA.
Recommendation: wait.
Stats since recommendation: 1-3 on 47:21 K:BB in 36 IP over 6 GS with 29 H, 7 HR, and a 4.25 ERA.

Previous Overachievers: April: Matt DeWitt, RH Reliever; May: Brett Tomko, RH Starter

San Francisco: Ryan Jensen, RH Starter
10-7 on 79:44 K:BB in 129 IP over 20 GS(22G) with 132 H, 17 HR, and a 4.41 ERA.

We're rather irritated with the Giants for starting Jensen over a true prospect like Kurt Ainsworth, but he's very adequately filled the Mark Gardner Fifth Starter role this season. A 51551 5-start PQS log at least suggests he could easily develop into a very intriguing roto option if he could improve his consistency. His 1.8 K:BB and 5.5 K/9 are below acceptable levels, but they represent an improvement over last year's 1.0 K:BB and 5.5 K/9, although neither his homer rate nor hit rate has improved. His .80 G-F is actually significantly worse than his 1.20 mark from 2001, indicating a likely increase in homers. While unlikely to maintain his current qualitative numbers, Jensen should be an intriguing keeper, and even contenders could probably wait to see if he can continue his overall development.

June Overachiever: Jay Witasick, RH Reliever
Old stats: 1-0 on 31:14 K:BB in 36.2 IP over 21 G with 24 H, 0 HR, and a 1.23 ERA.
Recommendation: deal.
Stats since recommendation: 0-0 on 10:3 K:BB in 13.1 IP over 5 G with 15 H, 0 HR, and a 4.73 ERA before hitting the DL with a bruised left foot.

Previous Overachievers: April: Kirk Rueter, LH Starter; May: Chad Zerbe, LH Reliever

St. Louis: Mike Matthews, LH Reliever
2-0 on 26:17 K:BB in 35.1 IP over 38 G with 31 H, 3 HR, and a 3.31 ERA.

A severely reduced homer rate, supported by an improvement in his G-F from .77 to .98, has allowed Matthews to apparently repeat much of his success from last year despite losing much of his dominance. The combination of a lower strikeout rate and higher walk rate suggest that he won't maintain an ERA much below 5.00 over the long run, leaving him relatively unownable despite his currently decent stats. Deal or cut Matthews before his skill deficiencies destroy his value.

June Overachiever: Jason Simontacchi, RH Starter
Old stats: 5-1 on 20:13 K:BB in 48 IP over 8 GS with 45 H, 6 HR, and a 3.00 ERA.
Recommendation: deal.
Stats since recommendation: 2-1 on 15:9 K:BB in 35.1 IP over 6 GS with 34 H, 4 HR, and a 3.82 ERA.

Previous Overachievers: April: Dave Veres, RH Reliever; May: Luther Hackman, RH Reliever

Internet Challenge

We're now down to one buy after adding Halladay on Sunday, so we don't expect to make any changes until roster expansion in three weeks.

Starters(6)
Pedro Martinez: Sun:@TEX(Myette)
Matt Morris: Sat:@ATL(Marquis)
Javier Vazquez: Sun:HOU(Saarloos)
Barry Zito: Fri:DET(Redman)
Kerry Wood: Fri:COL(Hampton)
Eric Gagne: 3 Road at Philadelphia.

No starts: Randy, Schilling, Mussina, Clemens, Oswalt, and Halladay.

We're pleased with all of these starts, so obviously we'll run our six active pitchers.

As Colorado is in Chicago against a team generally weak against SB, and we need cap room, we're going to deploy both Pierre and Uribe with Rollins. Bonds and Klesko stay on our bench, and we'll also sit Drew as St. Louis faces two Atlanta lefties. Our last cut is unfortunately Berkman, as we like Ichiro more at home versus Cleveland than Berkman in Montreal.

The Umpire Hunter(2nd lg; 16th overall)
Week 18b: August 2-August 4

C 	Jorge Posada		990
C	A.J. Pierzynski		460
1B	Jason Giambi		1640
1B	Paul Konerko		1220
2B	Luis Castillo		1000
2B	Alfonso Soriano		900
3B	Eric Chavez		1070
3B	Shea Hillenbrand	450
SS	Alex Rodriguez		1880
SS	Juan Uribe		500
OF	Sammy Sosa		1900
OF	Ichiro Suzuki		1330
OF	Juan Pierre		1180
OF	Torii Hunter		830
OF	Adam Dunn		710
OF	Daryle Ward		620
DH	Vlad Guerrero		1880
DH	Jimmy Rollins		940

SP	Pedro Martinez		1770
SP	Matt Morris		1190
SP	Javier Vazquez		1100
SP	Barry Zito		1080
SP	Kerry Wood		1050
SP	Eric Gagne		500
RP	Byung-Hyun Kim		1200
RP	Mike Williams		900
RP	Eddie Guardado		900
RP	Jorge Julio		750

Today's Fantasy Rx: Happy post-trade deadline (and Happy Anniversary to Jess - let's hope she doesn't edit this out)!

Take a few moments to analyze yesterday's trades to figure out which, if any, players you should target in your leagues. We've snagged both great in-season and rebuilding help during this time in past years, and you could easily set your roster up for next season if you get lucky with FAAB. With most leagues having at least until the weekend before FAAB bidding, I'll take a brief look at the most interesting players moved in each league over the next two days in this space.