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July 28th 2002 |
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Your Daily Fantasy Rx |
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by Tim Polko
Colorado: 6 Road games: 3 at Pittsburgh; 3 at Chicago Cubs.
Anaheim: 7 Home games: 3 vs. Boston; 4 vs. New York Yankees. Kansas City: 7 games: 4 Home vs. Toronto; 3 Road at Minnesota. Toronto: 7 games: 4 Road at Kansas City; 3 Home vs. Baltimore.
Baltimore: 7 Road games: 4 at Tampa Bay; 3 at Toronto. Teams with six home games: Atlanta, Chicago Cubs, Florida, Minnesota, Montreal, New York Mets, Philadelphia, and Pittsburgh. All other teams play six games.
Now as we fell out of first for only the second time since mid-May, we came really close to panicking today. Fortunately we decided to spend a couple hours analyzing our team, concluding that the best way to improve our power standing is to reduce the cap room allocated to the bullpen. We don't have room to add a new player on offense, but per our intentions back when we dropped Julio for M.Williams, we're adding Julio this week as Baltimore begins a nice stretch of the schedule. We're dumping Byung-Hyun Kim since he'll likely see less save opps than Izzy for several reasons, owns worse skills over the last few weeks, and could hurt us more in ERA/WHIP because he pitches more innings. This move adds $450 of weekly cap room. As soon as we find extra cap room in the next week or two, we expect to spend one of our last three burns on either Hunter or Nomar, depending on who better fits our cap needs. The other will join our team in the roster expansion in four weeks. We're also very close to adding Luis Vizcaino to Izzy, and if DeJean gets dealt this week, we'll make that move next Sunday.
We have doubles from Pedro, Hudson, and Vazquez, really nice home starts from Zito and Wood, and Gagne stays active as always. While we'd like to get Jeremy Giambi out of the lineup, we'll likely do almost as well with both Giambis as with Klesko and a Hunter pickup. Jeremy would also be our logical cut for Hunter as we'd like to see if Clemens comes back strong, so if he's not dealt to an AL team or if Travis Lee isn't moved, we'll probably finally cut bait on little G. Uribe starts for cap reasons, and then Klesko joins our other three Rockies on the bench for this week. Finally we have room to take either Rollins or Drew, and with Rollins finally rebounding from his slump and Drew unlikely to play at least 2 of their three games against left-handed starters, we'll take Rollins. Our season will likely depend on if our Rockies' gamble pays off. After this week, Colorado is at home for at least half the week in six of the final eight weeks, and if Helton, Walker, Pierre, and Uribe finish strong, we hope to pick up some ground on offense against teams that have abandoned this traditional strategy.
C Jorge Posada 990 C A.J. Pierzynski 460 1B Jason Giambi 1640 1B Paul Konerko 1220 2B Luis Castillo 1000 2B Alfonso Soriano 900 3B Eric Chavez 1070 3B Shea Hillenbrand 450 SS Alex Rodriguez 1880 SS Jimmy Rollins 940 OF Vlad Guerrero 1880 OF Ichiro Suzuki 1330 OF Lance Berkman 1320 OF Adam Dunn 710 OF Daryle Ward 620 OF Jeremy Giambi 500 DH Sammy Sosa 1900 DH Juan Uribe 500
SP Pedro Martinez 1770 SP Tim Hudson 1170 SP Javier Vazquez 1100 SP Barry Zito 1080 SP Kerry Wood 1050 SP Eric Gagne 500 RP Jason Isringhausen 1290 RP Mike Williams 900 RP Eddie Guardado 900 RP Jorge Julio 750
We came really close to adding Winn as a free agent, but we're not comfortable with cutting anyone. Instead we'll hold that move indefinitely since we want to add Jorge Julio for Izzy this week, since we need the cap room now instead of waiting until he's a free agent in two weeks.
SP(6) We also have the nice doubles here with Pedro, Garcia, and Vazquez, we'll stay with Zito and while we like Wood a lot, Halladay also has a nice start and fits better with our cap. Gagne finishes our staff once again. The three Rockies stay seated, and since we're holding out to see if Jeremy Giambi will finally take off, we're then stuck with him in the lineup and Drew on the bench, so hopefully Jeremy finds more AB than Drew for the week.
C Jorge Posada 990 C Michael Barrett 590 1B Jason Giambi 1640 1B Paul Konerko 1220 2B Luis Castillo 1000 2B Alfonso Soriano 900 3B Mike Lowell 870 3B Shea Hillenbrand 450 SS Alex Rodriguez 1880 SS Nomar Garciaparra 1120 OF Sammy Sosa 1900 OF Ichiro Suzuki 1330 OF Lance Berkman 1320 OF Pat Burrell 920 OF Torii Hunter 830 OF Adam Dunn 710 DH Daryle Ward 620 DH Jeremy Giambi 500
SP Pedro Martinez 1770 SP Freddy Garcia 1110 SP Javier Vazquez 1100 SP Barry Zito 1080 SP Eric Gagne 500 SP Roy Halladay 490 RP Mike Williams 900 RP Eddie Guardado 900 RP Jorge Julio 750 RP Scott Stewart 490
After dropping Izzy for Konerko, we're staying with Kim, Guardado, Mike Williams, and Julio indefinitely.
SP(6) No starts: Morris, Zito, Wood, and Lawrence. Vazquez and Gagne are the only high-percentage moves here, but to avoid losing ground in strikeouts, we're going to deploy Randy, Schilling, Mussina, and Oswalt. We're not sure when Clemens will be back, and despite Pedro's recent dominance, Anaheim strikes out less than any team in the majors. The four Rockies sit, as do the injured Bonds and Klesko, as he only has three games and they're all on the road in Chicago. Unfortunately this leaves us 1240 over the cap, and we need to find some way to remedy this situation. While we're only desperate to add RBI, we need to bulk up our strikeouts as much as our homers. So we're going to consider replacing one of our current starters with someone with more strikeout upside. We've selected the following pitchers for consideration and will evaluate them based both on salary and strikeout rates before and after the All-Star break. We'll only review pitchers who can give us a salary advantage, reviewing pitchers cheaper than $1000, and we want a 1ax LPR qualification for this year to indicate both dominance and consistency.
$ K/9pre K/9post Millwood 920 7.2 9.0 Burnett 670 8.7 8.1 Halladay 490 7.0 5.5 O.Perez 420 6.0 8.3 We have no problem dismissing Burnett due to persistent concerns about overwork, and we're also not willing to risk Odalis Perez against much harsher competition than Millwood and Halladay find in their respective Eastern Divisions. Millwood clearly appears as the better choice, but we'll remain open to both of them depending on salary needs, especially as Halladay is 3-0 with a .78 ERA in 23 IP since the break Of our current pitchers, Pedro, Schilling, Clemens, and Vazquez meet our established requirement, so we'll review the rest of our starters since we don't want to drop anyone on offense. We also know we're not cutting Randy, Zito, or Oswalt under any circumstances, leaving us with the following choices.
$ K/9pre K/9post Mussina 1380 7.4 5.4 Morris 1190 7.7 8.2 Wood 1050 7.6 9.4 Lawrence 480 6.3 4.2Morris and Wood look like good pitchers to own right now, and Mussina's wins' advantage is worth the salary difference. Considering that Lawrence spends all of September and most of August against winning teams contending for playoff spots, and we expected to drop him at the end of April, he'll finally depart our team. Millwood looks like a very interesting selection for roster expansion in a month, but we'll roster Halladay for now for salary reasons. Mussina will sit for Halladay this week since we like the latter on the road in Kansas City more than Mussina in Texas, leaving us with 350 left to cut. Since we don't want to bench anyone from Sosa, Vlad, ARod, Jason Giambi, Ichiro, and Berkman, we're left with dropping from Rollins to Uribe, a move we generally don't mind. We know that dropping to one move here is certainly a risk as we truly hope to save that move until the last Thursday of the season, but Lawrence simply isn't helping us any more and we need a dominant and successful pitcher to take his place. Our tentative callups will be Nomar and Millwood, although we obviously won't decide for certain right now.
C Jorge Posada 990 C A.J. Pierzynski 460 1B Jason Giambi 1640 1B Paul Konerko 1220 2B Luis Castillo 1000 2B Alfonso Soriano 900 3B Eric Chavez 1070 3B Shea Hillenbrand 450 SS Alex Rodriguez 1880 SS Juan Uribe 500 OF Sammy Sosa 1900 OF Ichiro Suzuki 1330 OF Lance Berkman 1320 OF Torii Hunter 830 OF Adam Dunn 710 OF Daryle Ward 620 DH Vlad Guerrero 1880 DH J.D. Drew 1010
SP Randy Johnson 1990 SP Curt Schilling 1540 SP Javier Vazquez 1100 SP Roy Oswalt 830 SP Eric Gagne 500 SP Roy Halladay 490 RP Byung-Hyun Kim 1200 RP Mike Williams 900 RP Eddie Guardado 900 RP Jorge Julio 750
We have no relievers on the bench, so we'll stay with Smoltz, Isringhausen, Kim, and Guardado until further notice.
SP(6) We'll take the doubles from Pedro and Vazquez, along with the solid Wood start and Gagne. After that, we'll take the relatively solid Schilling road start, and finish the team with Mussina in Texas, who's more likely to win than Oswalt against the sizzling Mets' offense. Our four Rockies stay on the bench, Bret Boone stays seated indefinitely, we don't quite have enough cap room for Lowell, and we don't trust the playing time of Jeremy Giambi or J.D. Drew this week.
C Paul Lo Duca 1640 C A.J. Pierzynski 1000 1B Jason Giambi 3320 1B Steve Cox 1160 2B Alfonso Soriano 1800 2B Junior Spivey 1500 3B Eric Chavez 2270 3B Aramis Ramirez 1590 SS Alex Rodriguez 3430 SS Nomar Garciaparra 2160 OF Lance Berkman 2540 OF Cliff Floyd 2300 OF Torii Hunter 1710 OF Adam Dunn 1610 OF Daryle Ward 1590 OF Corey Patterson 1370 DH Sammy Sosa 3480 DH Nick Johnson 1200
SP Curt Schilling 3160 SP Pedro Martinez 2950 SP Mike Mussina 2940 SP Javier Vazquez 2600 SP Kerry Wood 2300 SP Eric Gagne 1230 RP John Smoltz 2610 RP Jason Isringhausen 2370 RP Byung-Hyun Kim 2230 RP Eddie Guardado 1690
Pedro, Garcia, and Gagne give us a good foundation, and Zito and Halladay also look good. We'll round out this team with Odalis Perez since he should be thorougly rested and has a good chance of beating whomever Cincy decides to start. Bonds, Helton, and Larry Walker obviously sit, and we don't have room for Floyd or Castillo. We can run Eckstein instead of Hall in our last slot, leaving Derrek Lee and Jeremy Giambi to join the others on the bench.
C Paul Lo Duca 1640 C A.J. Pierzynski 1000 1B Paul Konerko 2410 1B Steve Cox 1160 2B Alfonso Soriano 1800 2B Junior Spivey 1500 3B Eric Chavez 2270 3B Eric Hinske 1500 SS Alex Rodriguez 3430 SS Nomar Garciaparra 2160 OF Lance Berkman 2540 OF Albert Pujols 2500 OF Ichiro Suzuki 2390 OF Pat Burrell 2050 OF Torii Hunter 1710 OF Adam Dunn 1610 DH Mike Lowell 1920 DH David Eckstein 1380
SP Pedro Martinez 2950 SP Freddy Garcia 2510 SP Barry Zito 2380 SP Roy Halladay 1230 SP Eric Gagne 1230 SP Odalis Perez 1070 RP John Smoltz 2610 RP Byung-Hyun Kim 2230 RP Mike Williams 1790 RP Eddie Guardado 1690
Click
here to read the previous article.
Please e-mail your comments to
tim@rotohelp.com. |
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