Today's Fantasy Rx

Please refer here to see the changes made to the rating system.

Forty National Leaguers earned a 1 for their performance through a week ago. This week, eight pitchers joined the list while seven departed, leaving us with forty-one pitchers displaying solid skills.

Pitchers who joined the list include Kevin Millwood, Scott Williamson, Vladimir Nunez, Octavio Dotel, Jayson Durocher, Javier Vazquez, Dan Plesac, and Steve Kline.

Pitchers who departed include Mike Koplove(K/9), Kyle Farnsworth(HR/9), Billy Wagner(HR/9), Ray King(K:BB), Dave Weathers(K:BB), Armando Benitez(HR/9), and Brian Lawrence(K/9, H/9).

Please refer here if you'd like to take another look at some of our methodology.

LPR Code Description
1 - K:BB of 2.0+, K/9 of 6.0+, HR/9 of 1.0-, and H/9 of 9.0- thus far in 2002
2 - K:BB of 2.0+, K/9 of 6.0+, HR/9 of 1.0-, and H/9 of 9.0- in the second half of 2001
3 - K:BB of 2.0+, K/9 of 6.0+, HR/9 of 1.0-, and H/9 of 9.0- in the first half of 2001
4 - K:BB of 2.0+, K/9 of 6.0+, HR/9 of 1.0-, and H/9 of 9.0- for all of 2000

a - DOM of 55% or more in 2002
b - DOM of 55% or more in 2001
c - DOM of 55% or more in 2000
x - DIS of 20% or less in 2002
y - DIS of 20% or less in 2001
z - DIS of 20% or less in 2000

(Note: I used the PQS logs from Baseball Forecaster to create these ratings, and I strongly recommend that you purchase a copy if you haven't already.

Here is the eleventh set of 2002 in-season NL LPR ratings, which include all games played through July 26th. We ranked pitchers by the highest LIMA rating and then by the best PQS rating. Starting pitchers, if necessary, are ranked by their performance over their last five starts, which I include after the pitchers name in chronological order, ending with his most recent appearance.

1234
Robb Nen

No starters allowed here until Randy stops allowing homers or Lawrence strikes out a few more guys while allowing less hits. Of course Nen doesn't mind sharing top billing, so try to add him if you need saves.

123
Octavio Dotel
Jason Isringhausen

While Izzy likely won't wind up with the most value of any closer in baseball, his skills remain fantastic, he appears healthy, and you should certainly consider adding him if available.

124
abcxyz - Al Leiter(42440)

Justin Speier

His two-year extension gives the Mets two aces for next year, and even if they lose Trachsel, Estes, and D'Amico in free agency, they can replace them with some combination of Satoru Komiyama, Jae Weong Seo, Tyler Walker, Pat Strange, Mike Bacsik, and Aaron Heilman, all of whom will deserve at least a month-long trial in the majors next year.

234
abcxyz - Randy Johnson(54425)
abxy - Brian Lawrence(05453)

Juan Cruz(41005)
Jeremy Fikac
Felix Rodriguez
Tim Spooneybarger

Cruz still owns solid long-term potential, and I'll be surprised if he isn't in next year's Opening Day rotation for Chicago. Randy looked fine last night, so feel free to start deploying him again if you'd held back after last weekend's blowup.

12
abcxyz- Curt Schilling(35545)
abxyz - Javier Vazquez(23454)
aby - Jason Schmidt(51444)

Steve Kline
Vladimir Nunez
Mike Remlinger
John Smoltz

I'm not sure I can name a starter I'd rather own than one of these three, and both closers and both lefty short men offer tremendous potential for the last two months of the season. Stay with Nunez over Looper; his skills are much better, and in line with solid historical trends.

13
Joey Eischen
Byung-Hyun Kim
Dan Plesac
Paul Quantrill
Steve Reed
Luis Vizcaino
Jay Witasick

Go add Luis Vizcaino right now. If the Brewers finally start listening to our advice from the very beginning of the season, Vizcaino might be the established closer by the time you read this following a DeJean trade. His skills are great, he has closing experiences in the minors, and he could easily post over a dozen saves by October.

Aside from Kim, the others here are pure-LIMA plan fodder. Feel free to add any or all of them as necessary.

14
Trevor Hoffman
Gabe White
Scott Williamson

Any rebuilding teams should definitely target Williamson. His skills remain solid as he regains his arm strength, and he could easily earn $15+ next year in the rotation or as an inexpensive replacement for Graves.

23
abcxy - Kerry Wood(24454)
by - Brad Penny(00050)
x - Carlos Zambrano(03354)

The Cubs here definitely work against any team. Attempt to trade Penny to anyone if you still own him; begin exploring deals first with rebuilding teams who might not worry about this year's disaster.

Nick Neugebauer(42451)
Kyle Farnsworth
Jeff Fassero
Josias Manzanillo
Jose Mesa
Billy Wagner

Both closers here had troubles this past week, hopefully making their owners more likely to deal with you. The Cubs' bullpen offers some promise, but until they move Fassero and Gordon, I have trouble trusting anyone except Alfonseca.

24
bcxyz - Bartolo Colon(53332)
z - Britt Reames(00)

Colon will either destruct on his way to the DL or bounce back from a possible dead arm to dominate. While I have no specific evidence of injury, he's accumulated a tremendous amount of abuse over his career, and an arm problem at least would explain the fallen strikeout rate.

34
bcxyz - Greg Maddux(34444)
acyz - Kevin Brown(45420)

Jose Acevedo(51030)
Chad Fox
Mike Holtz
Dave Veres

I think Maddux is back, and Kevin Brown also might return to offer some September help, although don't count on the latter scenario.

1
acxyz - Kevin Millwood(54553)
axyz - A.J. Burnett(55505)
bxy - Matt Morris(31555)
ax - Odalis Perez(43332)
xz - Matt Clement(35553)
x - Vicente Padilla(05332)

The next Braves' ace shouldn't go for less than $20 in almost any league next year. Place him near the top of your list if he's available and you're rebuilding. Any of these pitchers offer a lot of potential, although after Millwood, target Morris and Clement, especially in 5x5 leagues.

Mike Crudale(0)
Brian Boehringer
Jayson Durocher
Eric Gagne
Mark Guthrie
Darren Holmes
Todd Jones
Kent Mercker
Guillermo Mota
Mike Myers
Blaine Neal
Scott Sauerbeck
Scott Stewart
Tim Worrell

Durocher's likely available in almost every league for a minimum FAAB bid if you want roster filler with solid skills and even some saves upside. Sauerbeck's value will increase if dealt to a team with better offense, as would that of Boehringer and Todd Jones.

2

IN MEMORIAM: bcxyz - Darryl Kile(43004)

abxyz - Randy Wolf(45553)
abx - Roy Oswalt(53543)
bxy - Russ Ortiz(35320)
bxy - Tony Armas, Jr.(22040)

Wolf may be peaking, although if he can avoid further injury, he might emerge as one of the top bargains of 2003. Oswalt remains very consistent and would help in any league. The latter two starters both seem quite risky right now, so you might consider looking elsewhere for help.

Nelson Cruz(05040)
Jose Jimenez
Kerry Ligtenberg
Scott Sullivan
Dave Weathers

Only Jimenez seems relatively risk-free, a comment that's more an indictment of the other pitchers here than an indication of Jimenez's potential to avoid disaster.

3
bxyz - Jon Lieber(24432)
by - Ruben Quevedo(10311)

Lieber should not be with the Cubs on August 1st unless Jim Hendry has forgotten his job is to improve the franchise. Juan Cruz will likely be a better starter than Lieber as soon as next year, and with Clement, Prior, and Zambrano all signed to very reasonable deals, only two spots remain for Lieber, Cruz, the arbitration-eligible Wood, and Hendry's desire to add a left-hander like Steve Smyth to the rotation. If he can somehow manage to move Lieber and Wood, possibly packaging them with Alex Gonzalez and Todd Hundley, we might be able to pick up him long-term solutions at shortstop and catcher. Either Bellhorn or free agent Scott Rolen can fill third base, and Alou, Dave Kelton, or one of the Cubs' several outfield prospects can finish the lineup in left.

Quevedo's clearly moved pass his period of dominance and shouldn't be deployed in most leagues right now.

Jason Bere(45550)
Ryan Jensen(25155)
Jose Cabrera(04223)
Tim Redding(04320)
Pedro Borbon
Giovanni Carrara
Mike Matthews

Jensen is the only pitcher of this group who appears worthy of a roster spot right now. However if Bere returns strong, he offers a likely inexpensive option for those needing potential quality starts.

4
b - Bud Smith(02040)
xy - Ben Sheets(55531)

Kris Benson(35110)
Doug Brocail
Vic Darensbourg
Aaron Fultz
Scott Strickland
Greg Swindell

Only Sheets looks even mildly safe here, although we'll still use Strickland under some circumstances.

a
cxyz - Woody Williams(44554)
xy - Pedro Astacio(20245)
xz - Chuck Finley(23044)
x - Mark Prior(35454)
x - Kazuhisa Ishii(04344)
x - Josh Beckett(00354)
y - Brandon Duckworth(41445)
y - Kevin Jarvis(44400)

Every single healthy starter in this section has dominated in his last two starts, making all of them good buys for both contenders and rebuilders. Only Ishii concerns us due to his poor walk rate.

b
cxy - Hideo Nomo(54433)
cyz - Wade Miller(15334)
xy - John Thomson(34123)
y - Steve Trachsel(35404)
Terry Adams(33001)

Nomo and Trachsel both look solid, and while neither one will likely add significant wins to your team, they should help qualitatively.

c
xyz - Ryan Dempster(43030)
xz - Robert Person(33320)
z - Glendon Rusch(40034)
Rick Ankiel

Glendon Rusch has just baffled us this year, alternating extremely promising starts with simply horrendous outings; we still use him, although stay wary. Unfortunately he's still the most reliable of this bunch.

x
yz - Tom Glavine(00031)
yz - Elmer Dessens(03443)
y - Shawn Chacon(03330)
z - Shawn Estes(02235)
z - Jeff D'Amico(02223)

I harbor severe concerns about Glavine and still think you should consider moving him. Dessens, Estes, and D'Amico can be used under the right circumstances, but only Dessens offers reasonable assurance to avoid disasters.

Oliver Perez(43553)
Jimmy Haynes(24543)
Michael Tejera(54432)
Tomo Ohka(35403)
Damian Moss(42153)
Miguel Batista(04325)
Denny Stark(24430)
Josh Fogg(43004)
Brett Tomko(23432)
Kirk Rueter(22324)
Bobby J. Jones(03334)
Kip Wells(30432)
Omar Daal(32023)
Andy Ashby(23131)

Every pitcher here offers various degrees of upside, although your best bets are Perez, Haynes, Tejera, Tomko, and Bobby J. Jones. They offer the best combination of dominance and limited risk.

y
z - Livan Hernandez(00542)
z - Shane Reynolds(42300)
z - Denny Neagle(23300)
Jason Marquis(53404)
Brian Tollberg(32320)
Nelson Figueroa(30032)
Sean Lowe(0)
Darren Dreifort

Only Hernandez and Marquis are currently in rotations, and the latter offers more upside. Hernandez could find immediate success if dealt, although I remain concerned about his workload (along with every other analyst worth that designation).

z
Rick Helling(54400)
Carl Pavano(03400)
Jamey Wright(32230)
Mike Hampton(22212)
Julian Tavarez(23031)
Albie Lopez(0230)
Bruce Chen(03200)
Andy Benes(00000)

Helling should be fine when he returns and Bruce Chen is starting to show some effectiveness in relief; avoid everyone else here. Anyone caught deploying Andy Benes should be suspended from fantasy games for three years. No other pitcher has approached this level of disaster.

NL pitchers I recommend despite their failure to appear here include Antonio Alfonseca, Armando Benitez, Joe Borowski, Jaime Cerda, Rheal Cormier, Jayson Durocher, Mike Fetters, Tom Gordon, Danny Graves, Ray King, Mike Koplove, Matt Mantei, Jason Middlebrook(00), Dave Mlicki(53003), Brian Moehler(4333), Pete Munro(0425), Brett Myers(4), John Patterson(55), Jake Peavy(5045), John Riedling, Joe Roa, Kirk Saarloos(00044), Carlos Silva, Jason Simontacchi(33331), Travis Smith(33204), Gene Stechschulte, T.J. Tucker, Brandon Villafuerte, Mike Williams, and Masato Yoshii(33333). Please recognize that these are fairly risky or unproven players, but most aren't missing much to at least pick up a 1 rating fairly soon.

Other pitchers who you probably shouldn't deploy right now include Brian Anderson(43325), Jimmy Anderson(01032), Joe Beimel(30522), Mike DeJean, Kevin Gryboski, Joey Hamilton(13402), Chris Hammond, Matt Herges, Jason Jennings(23153), Graeme Lloyd, Braden Looper, Chris Reistma(42030), Jose Santiago, Mike Timlin, and Ron Villone(03043).

Today's Fantasy Rx: Several extremely interesting starters recently joined the NL. In most NL leagues, consider them in the following order: Chuck Finley, John Patterson, Brett Myers, Kirk Saarloos, Brian Moehler, and Joe Roa. The first four could earn in excess of $10 on the balance of the year, and while their qualitative numbers may wind up fairly close together, the first two possess significant wins potential in any league.