July 25th 2002 |
Your Daily Fantasy Rx |
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by Tim Polko We apologize for this week's technical problems, which have limited some of my articles, and expect the fixed files to be available in the archive no later than Saturday.
Schilling and Randy are among the front runners for the Cy because they've combined solid pitching with run support of 6.5 R/G and 5.7 R/G respectively; Rick Helling owns seven wins thanks to a 5.9 R/G from the offense. At the other end of the rotation, Miguel Batista's stuck at five wins thanks to 4.4 R/G support, and Brian Anderson has suffered the most of Arizona's regular starters with five wins on only 4.2 R/G. While he hasn't fulfilled his promise as Arizona's first selection in the 1997 expansion draft, Anderson has at least helped stabilize the rotation, providing between 130 and 215 innings in each of the franchise's first four seasons of play. His 4.4 K/9 is actually his second highest strikeout rate, and his 1.3 HR/9 is his second best mark in that category; fortunately his 1.24 G-F this year, a career-best by .22 G-F, indicates that he should finally stop allowing so many homers. Even with this minor improvement and the strong possibility of increased support by Arizona's offense, Anderson doesn't really appear ownable due to his strong downside and potential move to the bullpen when Helling returns, given the strong recent performances of Miguel Batista and John Patterson. A 43325 current 5-start PQS log isn't bad, so see if you can deal him before he loses all value.
June Underachiever: Greg Swindell, LH Reliever Previous Underachievers: April: Rick Helling, RH Starter; May: Miguel Batista, RH Swingman
I've seen recent speculation about John Smoltz possibly moving back into the rotation next season, leaving the closer's job open for someone like Spooneybarger. Considering the Braves' organization-wide depth at starting pitcher, Smoltz shouldn't be allowed this choice, and if he somehow forces a move, Spooneybarger doesn't appear ready to close. While his 2001 MLEs of 9.4 K/9, 3.1 K:BB, and .2 HR/9 definitely indicate closing potential, he hadn't pitched above A+ Macon prior to last year and he's failed to convert his potential into solid Major League command. Of course his supporting ratios, including a 1.85 G-F, .3 HR/9, and 7.5 H/9 are excellent, but a 5.8 K/9 and 1.1 K:BB doesn't suggest a pitcher capable of finishing games at this time. A career minor leaguer like Joey Dawley would first deserve the opportunity. If a rebuilding team inquires about Spooneybarger as a potential 2003 closer, feel free to deal him for immediate help, as while his stats are superficially good, we expected more this year and now have doubts regarding his future.
June Underachiever: Albie Lopez, RH Swingman Previous Underachievers: April: John Smoltz, RH Closer; May: Kevin Millwood, RH Starter
I thought ESPN's stats were in err when I saw that Pulpo's only managed a baker's dozen saves. Smoltz and Gagne have twice as many saves as Alfonseca's seventeen save opportunities. While he's struggled at times and his 1.8 K:BB is mildly disappointing after strong growth to 2.7 K:BB in 2001, there's little wrong with career-best marks of 7.3 K:BB, .4 HR/9, 7.5 H/9, and 2.21 G-F. While other closers certainly offer more dominance, Count Rugen owns strong supporting numbers that suggest he could certainly see extended success over both the rest of 2002 and through at least next year. The Cubs offer a great situation with a marginal offense and impressive rotation, and many relievers have thrived in similar setups. If you need saves, Alfonseca should remain at the top of your list of closers to acquire.
June Underachiever: Jason Bere, RH Starter Previous Underachievers: April: Jason Bere, RH Starter; May: Jeff Fassero, LH Reliever
Aside from only throwing 133 IP in 1998, Dempster hasn't pitched less than 165 IP in any year since he turned 19 in 1996. Florida left him out for 437 IP over the last two years, a very high number for a pitcher who didn't turn 25 until this May. I suspect he's either been hiding an injury or will "suddenly develop" one at some point in the near future, as his skills have disintegrated since his All-Star 2000. We've seen his K:BB fall from 2.2 in 2000 to 1.5 last year and now 1.6 in 2002; his strikeout rate fell from 8.3 to 7.3 and now 6.7 K/9, while his hit rate has gone from 8.4 to 9.3 and now 9.9 H/9 this year. His HR/9(1.2 to .9 and now 1.1) and G-F(1.08 to 1.22 and now .93) have only stayed consistent at best, and pitchers don't generally lose all of their skills over a two-year period for no apparent reason. He shouldn't expect any more defensive help as Cincinnati is similar to Florida in the field, so Dempster could easily continue his roto-unfriendly pitching all year. Cincy might move him to the bullpen, but I just can't recommend him at this time. Only acquire him if rebuilding, as I like his potential for next season if he can rest his arm.
June Underachiever: Scott Sullivan, RH Reliever Previous Underachievers: April: Scott Williamson, RH Reliever; May: Joey Hamilton, RH Starter
While Justin Speier's due for an ERA spike, Jones, with his far superior 1.42 G-F ratio, possess closer-caliber skills that a team like Montreal definitely should have sought to procure. Only control problems have truly hindered his production in the past, and he's walking over a batter per game less than his career average. He also writes an extremely interesting column each week during the season in The Sporting News, offering insights that you find in few other places aside from self-indulgent autobiographies, if you'll pardon the redundancy. Make every effort to add him if he gains a bigger role, but with Colorado approaching an extended home stand beginning a week from Monday, wait to see if he moves elsewhere before taking other action.
June Underachiever: Mike Hampton, LH Starter Previous Underachievers: April: John Thomson, RH Starter; May: Denny Neagle, LH Starter
While we strongly suspected he'd have problems this year, we didn't expect he'd both walk an extra batter per game and strike out more than a batter less every nine innings. His complete command collapse destroys his roto value and leaves him unownable. A 2.00 G-F ratio and corresponding .6 HR/9 are the only signs of hopes here, but realistically Tavarez will be lucky to grab an NRI with Tampa next year. Deal or cut him if he's anywhere near your roster.
June Underachiever: Braden Looper, RH Reliever Previous Underachievers: April: Brad Penny, RH Starter; May: Josh Beckett, RH Starter
We expected a more impressive year from Miller, but he hasn't excelled after returning from missing most of April and May with a pinched nerve in his neck. His 1.27 G-F is near is 1.35 career average, and he's within two decent starts of both the HR/9 and H/9 LPR goals. A 15334 5-start PQS log shows good promise and indicates that you can still generally rely on Miller to avoid disasters. Also, his 7.0 K/9 rate is only less than a K/9 off from his career average. Now might be a good time to acquire Miller given his only average qualitative stats, and I'll be surprised if he doesn't perform admirably when the Astros make their Wild Card push.
June Underachiever: Tim Redding, RH Starter Previous Underachievers: April: Billy Wagner, LH Closer; May: Scott Linebrink, RH Reliever
While he held a 1 LPR rating earlier in the season, he hasn't exceeded six innings in his last six starts, compiling a very weak 023131 PQS log during that time. He's somehow managing a 1.47 G-F, his worst mark ever and a definite worry considering his 2.01 G-F average. With an unacceptable 1.8 K:BB continuing the trend from his last healthy season, this 35-year-old control pitcher definitely is deteriorating in the latter stages of his career. Ashby has dashed my limited hopes that he could maintain his good skills from earlier in the year, and now looks like someone you should deal before any trading deadline in your league.
June Underachiever: Giovanni Carrara, RH Reliever Previous Underachievers: April: Paul Quantrill, RH Reliever; May: Kevin Brown, RH Starter
A stunning 5555 streak earlier this year, a mark of excellence reached by only Schilling, Schmidt, Lawrence, and Freddy Garcia this year, Quevedo's returned to his normal inconsistency, with his most recent 10300 streak indicative of his skill deficiency. His .56 G-F is another poor mark after a .59 last year and .71 in 2000 when the Cubs attempted to blow out his arm at the end of the year. All his ratios have deteriorated after ten very good starts last season, but the loss of over 3 K/9 from his dominance definitely reduces his value in 5x5 leagues. Quevedo doesn't appear worth deploying except under the best of conditions, and contenders should probably leave him on the bench whenever possible. We'll need to see some very positive signs over the last two months to avoid recommending strongly against him next year. Deal him if you can find any rebuilding team interested in a fizzling former top prospect.
June Underachiever: Ben Sheets, RH Starter Previous Underachievers: April: Nick Neugebauer, RH Starter; May: Glendon Rusch, LH Starter
Armas has struggled somewhat after a string of five straight dominant starts back in May. Instead of continuing his development from last season after reaching 1.9 K:BB and 8.1 K/9, he's slipped back to 1.7 K:BB and 7.4 K/9. His homer rate has also increased to 1.3 HR/9 from .8 HR/9 despite an increase in his G-F ratio from 1.04 to 1.53 this year. His current 52204 5-start PQS indicates he's primarily lacking consistency in his skills instead of a specific skill deficiency. Rebuilding teams should look to add him, although contenders should just wait to see if he'll rebound.
June Underachiever: Matt Herges, RH Reliever Previous Underachievers: April: Britt Reames, RH Reliever; May: Javier Vazquez, RH Starter
He ran into some problems near the end of June when he started allowing a homer in seemingly every other game. A 1.00 G-F is right in line with his career ratio, although he's only barely avoiding a third straight year with a dropping G-F, suggesting his homer problems may continue in the future. We expected a lot from Strickland as Montreal's closer, and while he's added a helpful number of wins from middle relief, only a very unlikely trade of Armando Benitez would allow Strickland to reach double-digit 2002 value. The combination of his deteriorating command and increasing homer problems reduces even his nominal current value. Consider a deal to add a more consistent reliever with better overall skills.
June Underachiever: Jeff D'Amico, RH Starter
Previous Underachievers: April: Kane Davis, RH Reliever; May: Shawn Estes, LH Starter Person's value is approaching its lowest point in years, and if doctors find any additional problems with his arm, he might not return this season. Philadelphia doesn't really need him back with Padilla, Wolf, Duckworth, Myers, and Roa capably filling out the rotation, a fortunate situation for the Phillies as we're not surprised that Person might have a major problem after two years of a very heavy workload. His .56 G-F is relatively awful even as it's only slightly lower than his career mark of .66. With his command disappearing in addition to allowing too many homers, as well as a 33320 5-start PQS log indicating very little immediate upside, you shouldn't bother trying to add Person. Try to deal the prospective free agent if anyone thinks he'll rebound this season.
June Underachiever: Rheal Cormier, LH Reliever Previous Underachievers: April: Randy Wolf, LH Starter; May: Brandon Duckworth, RH Starter
After making the biggest mistake of all free agents by not accepting arbitration (as his Type A status required any prospective new team to give up their first round pick to sign a right-handed middle reliever), Manzanillo spent the necessary month in the minors before a May 1st call-up. He pitched in one game before a bone chip in his right elbow forced him to the DL for over two months. Manzanillo only rejoined the team a little under two weeks ago, and instead of resuming his dominant pitching from last season and April in AAA, he's shown practically no skill. Even his formerly decent G-F has dropped to a terrible .55, so unless you can leave him on an Ultra reserve until his skills improve, deal or cut Manzanillo as he lacks the skills to repeat last year's success.
June Underachiever: Kris Benson, RH Starter Previous Underachievers: April: Sean Lowe, RH Reliever; May: Ron Villone, LH Swingman
A former top closer prospect with Toronto, who looked very impressive in 2001 prior to arthroscopic surgery on his strained right shoulder, Davey has the opportunity to re-merge as San Diego's top setup man with Fikac's struggles and Reed likely moving elsewhere by the deadline. His 1.00 G-F is nowhere near his 2.27 mark from last season, but I suspect all his ratios will improve as he sees more time in the majors this year. If anyone's looking for Hoffman's back-up in the unlikely case of injury, Davey might be a safer bet than Fikac at the moment. However, as we don't know if Davey will encounter difficulties in his return to the big leagues, only wait on his development if you can afford a potential ERA and WHIP hit. Also, last month I posted the number for the GM of the AAA Portland Beavers, suggesting that San Diego GM Kevin Towers contact him to call-up a pitcher or two who was old enough to rent a car at any agency, perhaps John Snyder, Brandon Villafuerte, or Jason Kershner. As both Villafuerte and Kershner have spent time with the Padres since that column, Kevin, we appreciate your support.
June Underachiever: Jeremy Fikac, RH Reliever Previous Underachievers: April: Brian Tollberg, RH Starter; May: Jason Middlebrook, RH Swingman
We expected this former walk junkie to continue his extremely impressive development from last season, even projecting him to compile better overall stats than pitchers like Kerry Wood and Tom Glavine. Instead Ortiz has slipped back to his old bad habits by walking almost two more batters per game than last season. He's still showing signs of improvement as his 1.30 G-F is the best mark of his career, but his current 23532 5-start PQS log shows that his dominant starts grow increasingly rare. I see no statistical evidence indicating that he'll even rebound to last year's form, but unless another owner is willing to overpay for the wins and unsupported qualitative help, you should probably wait on Ortiz for now.
June Underachiever: Felix Rodriguez, RH Reliever Previous Underachievers: April: Aaron Fultz, LH Reliever; May: Jason Schmidt, RH Starter
Smith's troubles are somewhat surprising considering his solid 2002 AAA numbers and his relatively good MLE history. Unfortunately after beginning the year with a 255 PQS log, he's slipped rather badly to a 03320 over his last five starts. A 1.15 G-F supports a much superior homer rate to his current 1.7 HR/9, but even if he can show rather immediate improvement, the Cardinals seem determined to upgrade his slot with a new acquisition. Minor league journeymen with 6+ ERAs in several starts often don't get another extended opportunity, and Smith's very weak 1.5 K:BB won't boost his other stats. Deal or cut Smith to avoid further qualitative damage.
June Underachiever: Steve Kline, LH Reliever Previous Underachievers: April: Bud Smith, LH Starter; May: Garrett Stephenson, RH Starter
Kim, Mike Williams, Guardado, and Julio continue to comprise the extent of our relief corps.
Starters(6) No starts: Pedro, Clemens, and Vazquez. Randy, Schilling, and Oswalt are mandatory as we need strikeouts and they face high strikeout teams. We refuse to sit Gagne for cap reasons, and then Mussina and Zito face teams more likely to give us strikeouts than Kerry Wood against St. Louis, as only one(Anaheim) team has less strikeouts than the Cardinals this year. While the Cubs are also in the top five of teams with the most strikeouts, Clement is the only great opponent that our pitchers face, so we don't mind sitting Morris. Most of our Rockies sit, but we'll deploy Uribe as he's both decently hot and in Milwaukee, and we always like running our hitters against Brewer pitching in Miller. Finally we need another semi-inexpensive hitter unless we want to run Durazo, so we're going to add Torii Hunter while cutting Durazo, leaving us with two buys left, along with the two roster expansion pick-ups in four weeks. Bonds and Klesko sit, and then we need to either deploy Hunter and Pierre for Jason Giambi and Ichiro, or deploy Hunter for either Sosa or Vlad. We don't really want to run Pierre and we like Giambi in Tampa, so our decision is between Sosa and Vlad. Despite his slump and an awful 1:10 BB:K over the last week, Sosa has five RBI to Vlad's two, although he lacks Vlad's stolen bases. Looking at our overall team needs, we're in the top 25 in ERA, top 50 in BA and WHIP, top 75 in Runs, and top 100 in steals. However we're only top 200 in saves and HR, top 275 in strikeouts, and in RBI, our major problem, we're barely in the top half of all teams. Sosa vs. Vlad is a tough decision, and given that we need power so much more than all other categories, we're going to go (hopefully) against the popular sentiment, sit Randy in favor of Morris, and keep our offense intact. San Diego crushed Randy on Sunday, and his 45442 5-start PQS indicates a worse trend than Morris' 31555; maybe we'll get lucky and Randy's back problems will stymie those owners deploying him as a "safe" pitcher to boost their sagging ERA and WHIP. The only other necessary minor change is benching Rollins, moving Uribe to SS, and deploying our new acquisition of Torii Hunter.
C Jorge Posada 990 C A.J. Pierzynski 460 1B Jason Giambi 1640 1B Paul Konerko 1220 2B Luis Castillo 1000 2B Alfonso Soriano 900 3B Eric Chavez 1070 3B Shea Hillenbrand 450 SS Alex Rodriguez 1880 SS Juan Uribe 500 OF Ichiro Suzuki 1330 OF Lance Berkman 1320 OF J.D. Drew 1010 OF Torii Hunter 830 OF Adam Dunn 710 OF Daryle Ward 620 DH Sammy Sosa 1900 DH Vlad Guerrero 1880
SP Curt Schilling 1540 SP Mike Mussina 1380 SP Matt Morris 1190 SP Barry Zito 1080 SP Roy Oswalt 830 SP Eric Gagne 500 RP Byung-Hyun Kim 1200 RP Mike Williams 900 RP Eddie Guardado 900 RP Jorge Julio 750
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