Today's Fantasy Rx

Anaheim: Kevin Appier, RH Starter
8-8 on 78:35 K:BB in 114 IP over 20 GS with 129 H, 14 HR, and a 4.50 ERA.

Appier's alternated some absolutely fantastic starts with more dreadful performances than we'd like. The biggest actual problem in his skills isn't reflected by a decent 1.1 HR/9; his .74 G-F is the worst mark of his career and indicative of pending ERA damage from the longball. A 2.2 K:BB and 6.2 K/9 show that he still owns good command and dominance, although he'd certainly receive a boost in value if Anaheim's defense could help cut Appier's 10.2 H/9 down closer to his 8.4 career H/9. His 34433 current 5-start PQS log suggests the general return of his skills, and considering the Angels' great offense thus far, you should probably at least wait to see if Appier can emerge as a top starter again by the end of the year.

June Underachiever: Aaron Sele, RH Starter
Old stats: 6-4 on 41:26 K:BB in 85 IP over 14 GS with 110 H, 12 HR, and a 5.29 ERA.
Recommendation: deal.
Stats since recommendation: 1-3 on 19:8 K:BB in 37.2 IP over 5 GS with 42 H, 2 HR, and a 3.58 ERA.

Previous Underachievers: April: Scott Schoeneweis, LH Starter; May: Troy Percival, RH Closer

Baltimore: Buddy Groom, LH Reliever
2-2 on 27:10 K:BB in 39.1 IP over 46 G with 23 H, 3 HR, and a 2.06 ERA.

Fortunately for his owners, a career-best ERA helps to compensate for his lack of saves, since for his likely $5-10 salary in most leagues, his owners expected double-digit saves instead of his current 1 lone save. Most of his skill ratios are in line with historical expectations, and the one glaring difference is a 5.3 H/9; he's allowing more than three hits less than his previous best mark. The Orioles own the fourth best defense in the majors, but I don't expect them to continue performing at their current level considering the variance in daily lineups. If their consistency slips, then both Groom's WHIP and ERA will rise. However Jorge Julio will need some rest over the last third of the season, so I also believe Groom will add about a half-dozen saves to your team. The combination of these factors leave him at approximately his current value, suggesting you should wait for the probable saves' boost.

June Underachiever: Sidney Ponson, RH Starter
Old stats: 3-4 on 63:36 K:BB in 95 IP over 15 GS with 91 H, 12 HR, and a 4.07 ERA.
Recommendation: wait.
Stats since recommendation: 1-0 on 20:10 K:BB in 26.1 IP over 5 GS with 32 H, 5 HR, and a 4.78 ERA.

Previous Underachievers: April: B.J. Ryan, LH Specialist; May: Jason Johnson, RH Starter

Boston: Sun-Woo Kim, RH Swingman
2-0 on 18:7 K:BB in 29 IP over 15 G(2GS) with 34 H, 5 HR, and a 7.45 ERA.

Kim showed off some skills last year and continues to give us glimpses of promise, all shielded from most owners by his high ERA. This year's problems stem from a G-F ratio that dropped to .89 after a year at 1.28, and even one of the best defenses in baseball only helped reduce his H/9 from 11.7 to 10.6. He's also showing no dominance despite spending all but four of his thirty-five career games in the bullpen, managing just a meager increase from 5.2 K/9 to 5.6 this year. Perhaps the only relevant development in his skills is a walk rate that dropped to 2.2 this year after a 4.5 BB/9 last year, allowing him to post a respectable 2.6 K:BB thus far in 2002. Contenders should deal or cut him as the Red Sox seem to prefer other pitchers.

June Underachiever: John Burkett, RH Starter
Old stats: 7-2 on 49:18 K:BB in 65.1 IP over 11 GS with 78 H, 10 HR, and a 4.00 ERA.
Recommendation: deal.
Stats since recommendation: 2-1 on 25:13 K:BB in 38 IP over 6 GS with 42 H, 5 HR, and a 4.26 ERA.

Previous Underachievers: April: Rich Garces, RH Setup; May: Frank Castillo, RH Starter

Chicago White Sox: Jon Garland, RH Starter
8-7 on 57:48 K:BB in 114.1 IP over 20 GS with 120 H, 14 HR, and a 5.12 ERA.

Instead of developing into one of the top starters in baseball as everyone expected, Garland's "progressed" in line with his skills. Looking back at his statistical history, he hasn't compiled acceptable command or dominance numbers since his debut season in the Arizona Rookie League. Neither his 3.33 ERA over 19 starts at A+ Winston-Salem in 1999 nor his 2.26 ERA over 16 GS at AAA Charlotte in 2000 appear supported by his stats, and his 3.69 ERA in the majors last year was a mirage built upon a 61:55 K:BB in 117 IP. He's only dominated in five of his twenty starts this year, and his current 32330 5-start PQS log depicts a pitcher with little upside. Try to deal Garland to any rebuilding team as we have no idea if he'll ever mature into a deployable pitcher.

June Underachiever: Todd Ritchie, RH Starter
Old stats: 4-9 on 53:33 K:BB in 93.1 IP over 16 GS with 112 H, 11 HR, and a 5.11 ERA.
Recommendation: wait.
Stats since recommendation: 1-5 on 19:14 K:BB in 31.2 IP over 6 GS with 52 H, 7 HR, and a 9.09 ERA.

Previous Underachievers: April: Antonio Osuna, RH Middle Reliever; May: Keith Foulke, RH Closer

Cleveland: Danys Baez, RH Starter
8-7 on 96:61 K:BB in 116.2 IP over 20 GS with 108 H, 7 HR, and a 4.17 ERA.

Perhaps our biggest error this year was deciding that Danys Baez would make a significantly more successful transition to starting than Derek Lowe. At least Baez has pitched relatively respectably, and his current 04534 5-start PQS log suggests he should continue improving. His long-term upside remains intriguing although any additional dismantling of the Indians will reduce his wins' potential. You can probably safely wait on Baez at the moment, although remain open to trades if any rebuilding team can offer a lower-risk replacement.

June Underachiever: Bob Wickman, RH Closer
Old stats: 17 Saves on 30:9 K:BB in 26.1 IP over 28 G with 34 H, 1 HR, and a 4.44 ERA.
Recommendation: deal.
Stats since recommendation: 3 Saves on 6:0 K:BB in 7 IP over 8 G with 7 H, 2 HR, and a 5.14 ERA before hitting the DL with a strained forearm.

Previous Underachievers: April: Chuck Finley, LH Starter; May: C.C. Sabathia, LH Starter

Detroit: Jeff Farnsworth, RH Rule 5 Pick
2-2 on 16:15 K:BB in 41 IP over 25 G with 55 H, 5 HR, and a 6.37 ERA.

While jumping past AAA isn't usually a good idea for a pitcher who needed two unsuccessful years at A+ and two relatively solid years at AA to post favorable ratios, his current skills don't even measure up to his recent MLEs. He averaged a 1.7 K:BB, 5.1 K/9, and .7 HR/9, far superior to his current 1.1 K:BB, 3.5 K/9, and 1.1 HR/9. A 1.74 G-F at least indicates some potential, but he'll need to return to the minors next season if he's to regain his skills. Deal or cut him even if rebuilding.

June Underachiever: Steve Sparks, RH Starter
Old stats: 3-7 on 36:27 K:BB in 86.1 IP over 14GS(15G) with 118 H, 7 HR, and a 5.94 ERA.
Recommendation: deal or reserve.
Stats since recommendation: 1-3 on 19:19 K:BB in 32.1 IP over 5 GS with 36 H, 5 HR, and a 5.29 ERA.

Previous Underachievers: April: Mark Redman, LH Starter; May: Jose Paniagua, RH Reliever

Kansas City: Jeff Suppan, RH Starter
8-8 on 70:36 K:BB in 139.1 IP over 21 GS with 147 H, 23 HR, and a 5.17 ERA.

Suppan hasn't exactly fulfilled the expectations from when he was ranked near the top of Boston's prospect lists and Arizona subsequently selected him at the beginning of the expansion draft. He's never won more than 10 games in a season, a number he's reached each of the past three years, despite pitching over 200 innings in each of those three years. He seems likely to finally wind up around a dozen wins even as he continues to pitch for a team whose management has little idea how to construct a productive offense. Suppan's lack of dominance also doesn't suggest much additional development, although at least he's holding a K:BB almost at 2.0. Neither his current 44223 5-start PQS log nor a 1.27 G-F, which continues a disappointing four-year trend towards more flyballs, indicates he'll rebound at any point, so remain open to a deal to a team needing IP.

June Underachiever: Roberto Hernandez, RH Closer
Old stats: 10 Saves on 16:4 K:BB in 19 IP over 18 G with 19 H, 2 HR, and a 3.32 ERA.
Recommendation: acquire.
Stats since recommendation: 9 Saves on 9:4 K:BB in 13 IP over 15 G with 17 H, 1 HR, and a 6.23 ERA.

Previous Underachievers: April: Cory Bailey, RH Setup; May: Jason Grimsley, RH Setup

Minnesota: Kyle Lohse, RH Starter
9-5 on 71:43 K:BB in 120.2 IP over 20 GS with 123 H, 12 HR, and a 4.80 ERA.

Injuries to many Minnesota pitchers have left Lohse as the most consistent right-hander in the rotation. While he struggled with hits and homers last year, his 2.2 K:BB suggested upside that I don't yet see in these stats. His command has deteriorated this season, dropping to a 1.7 K:BB and 5.5 K/9, neither of which makes me think he'll hold his rotation spot through the end of the season with four highly-paid veterans and the surging Johan Santana all more deserving. I also don't expect him to hold a .9 HR/9 with a .89 G-F, although his 30453 PQS log indicates potential development, so while you should listen to offers, you could also wait to see if he'll improve.

June Underachiever: Rick Reed, RH Starter
Old stats: 6-3 on 54:13 K:BB in 82.1 IP over 15 GS with 86 H, 17 HR, and a 4.48 ERA.
Recommendation: deal.
Stats since recommendation: 2-2 on 15:5 K:BB in 33.2 IP over 6 GS with 38 H, 5 HR, and a 4.81 ERA.

Previous Underachievers: April: Brad Radke, RH Starter; May: Eric Milton, LH Starter

New York Yankees: Mike Mussina, RH Starter
12-4 on 103:28 K:BB in 127 IP over 20 GS with 119 H, 19 HR, and a 4.40 ERA.

While his helpful wins' total is based upon continued strong run support, his skills remain very strong with one exception. His 3.7 K:BB, 7.3 K/9, and 8.4 H/9 are all fine, but a 1.3 HR/9 keeps his ERA above the level we expected. A 1.10 G-F is even better than his mark from last year, and a 42454 5-start PQS log demonstrates his skill consistency. Unless he's hiding an injury or tipping his pitches, his ERA should head down quickly. Acquire Mussina before his likely return to dominating hitters.

June Underachiever: Sterling Hitchcock, LH Swingman
Old stats: 1-0 on 16:10 K:BB in 21.2 IP over 9G(2GS) with 32 H, 3 HR, and a 7.48 ERA.
Recommendation: wait.
Stats since recommendation: No stats as he's missed the last month while on the DL with a sprained lower back with inflammation.

Previous Underachievers: April: Roger Clemens, RH Hall of Fame Starter; May: Orlando Hernandez, RH Starter

Oakland: Tim Hudson, RH Starter
7-8 on 93:50 K:BB in 143 IP over 21 GS with 143 H, 13 HR, and a 3.34 ERA.

Hudson's troubles are quite worrisome considering the tremendous promise he frequently displayed over the past three seasons. His 23131 5-start PQS log is the biggest red flag, as he's simply not dominating in his starts. Fortunately a 2.03 G-F is comparable to past seasons, supporting his solid .8 HR/9. At least his 1.9 K:BB and 5.9 K/9 are roughly at target levels, and his overall stat line seems reasonably strong. Perhaps I'm overly optimistic about his upside, but I don't expect his value will remain at the level normally indicated by a sub-.500 record and weak strikeout rate. Take advantage of this hopefully brief downturn to acquire Hudson.

June Underachiever: Cory Lidle, RH Starter
Old stats: 1-6 on 44:15 K:BB in 67.1 IP over 12 GS(13G) with 96 H, 7 HR, and a 5.88 ERA.
Recommendation: wait.
Stats since recommendation: 2-2 on 19:6 K:BB in 35.1 IP over 5 G with 29 H, 5 HR, and a 3.57 ERA.

Previous Underachievers: April: Jeff Tam, RH Setup; May: Billy Koch, RH Closer

Seattle: James Baldwin, RH Starter
6-6 on 67:34 K:BB in 116 IP over 19 GS with 129 H, 17 HR, and a 4.42 ERA.

Baldwin is one of the few acknowledged pitchers who normally improves in the second half. His 2.0 K:BB is superior to his career mark while his 5.2 K/9 is at least better than his 2001 rate. However the combination of a 1.3 HR/9, equal to his historical average while not really supported by a drop in his G-F to .91, and an elevated 10.0 hit rate at least leave him vulnerable to occasional disasters. His current 5-start PQS log of 32344 helps alleviate most of these fears, and with the Mariners' offense and bullpen giving him plenty of opportunities to win and Baldwin's command remaining at an acceptable level, you might want to look to acquire him if you need wins and innings.

June Underachiever: Rafael Soriano, RH Starter
Old stats: 0-3 on 28:11 K:BB in 41.2 IP over 6 GS(8G) with 33 H, 6 HR, and a 3.67 ERA.
Recommendation: acquire.
Stats since recommendation: 0-0 on 4:5 K:BB in 5.2 IP over 2 GS with 12 H, 2 HR, and a 11.12 ERA before hitting the DL with a strained right shoulder.

Previous Underachievers: April: Paul Abbott, RH Starter; May: Freddy Garcia, RH Starter

Tampa Bay: Tanyon Sturtze, RH Starter
1-10 on 85:60 K:BB in 139.2 IP over 21 GS with 169 H, 19 HR, and a 4.77 ERA.

Sturtze finally posted his first win at the end of June but hasn't built on even that limited momentum. A 14420 five-start PQS log is fairly representative of his season as he he's only posted a single 5 all year despite occasional somewhat dominant performances. While he showed a lot of promise in the minors in 1999, we're quite unimpressed with his pitching over the last two years. A 1.4 K:BB is unacceptable and a 5.5 K/9 is also rather low. His .88 G-F suggests his 1.2 HR/9 is probably lower than we can expect, and even the Rays' league-average defense hasn't prevented a rise in his hit rate from 9.2 to 10.9 H/9. Look to deal or even cut Sturtze to avoid further qualitative damage.

June Underachiever: Esteban Yan, RH Closer
Old stats: 9 Saves on 17:12 K:BB in 28.2 IP over 25 G with 35 H, 5 HR, and a 5.65 ERA.
Recommendation: wait.
Stats since recommendation: 4 Saves on 7:7 K:BB in 12 IP over 11 G with 10 H, 0 HR, and a 1.50 ERA.

Previous Underachievers: April: Jesus Colome, RH Reliever; May: Ryan Rupe, RH Starter

Texas: Todd Van Poppel, RH Reliever
1-0 on 38:16 K:BB in 44.2 IP over 32 G with 50 H, 4 HR, and a 4.43 ERA.

The struggles of the Texas offense have hurt Van Poppel more than any other Ranger pitcher as we expected him to reach double-digits in vultured wins. At least his 2.4 K:BB and 7.7 K/9 are both solid marks, and his .8 HR/9 is lower than we can expect even if his .95 G-F is a slight improvement over last season's ratio. A 10.1 hit rate is probably the most troublesome aspect of his stats, and along with a likely rising homer rate, it should force his ERA upwards. We still might hold onto him in one or two moderately deep leagues, but you could easily deal or cut Van Poppel as I don't expect the Rangers' offense to rebound this season, keeping his roto value extremely limited.

June Underachiever: Rob Bell, RH Starter
Old stats: 3-2 on 32:14 K:BB in 40.1 IP over 7 GS with 41 H, 5 HR, and a 5.80 ERA.
Recommendation: acquire.
Stats since recommendation: 0-1 on 20:9 K:BB in 25.1 IP over 4 GS with 34 H, 3 HR, and a 6.75 ERA.

Previous Underachievers: April: Rudy Seanez, RH Reliever; May: Dave Burba, RH Starter

Toronto: Chris Carpenter, RH Starter
4-1 on 30:17 K:BB in 49.1 IP over 9 GS with 69 H, 8 HR, and a 4.74 ERA.

Few people believe the Jays have handled Carpenter properly this year, as he was rushed to Opening Day, immediately hit the DL after one start due to right shoulder tendinitis, returned for one start in mid-April, and then went back on the DL. Now he at least seems partially healthy and pitching effectively, as evidenced by his current 5-start PQS log of 32534. However his 1.8 K:BB and 5.5 K/9 are both below what we'd expect from a healthy Carpenter, and both his 1.5 HR/9 and 1.03 G-F are a disappointment after a 1.2 HR/9 and very good 1.65 G-F in 2001. I'm also not sure if he can stay healthy given that his arm problems seem likely to linger, so you should probably explore a deal with any owner who still believes in Carpenter's upside.

June Underachiever: Justin Miller, RH Starter
Old stats: 4-4 on 35:40 K:BB in 53.1 IP over 10 GS(14G) with 58 H, 6 HR, and a 6.58 ERA.
Recommendation: acquire him if rebuilding.
Stats since recommendation: 0-0 on 1:1 K:BB in 2 IP over 1 G with 4 H, 0 HR, and a 38.99 ERA before returning to the minors.

Previous Underachievers: April: Luke Prokopec, RH Starter; May: Kelvim Escobar, RH Closer

Today's Fantasy Rx: With one week left until the major league trading deadline, if you can't keep players traded to the other league, you need to immediately offer trades involving anyone whom you're concerned might instantly lose all his value. Pitchers like Dan Plesac and Esteban Yan likely head this list, so if you believe any of your players could go, begin attempting to move them today.