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July 23rd 2002 |
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Your Daily Fantasy Rx |
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by Tim Polko Note: The beginning of most stat lines includes data for H/AB for BA/OBP/SLG.
Arizona: Matt Williams, 3B He's only played 10 games so far since returning from a broken left fibula, which he fractured six inches above the ankle in late February. The only glaring problems is his 3.03 #P/PA, but he only managed a 3.07 #P/PA in his great 1999 season, potentially negating the normally detrimental effects of this lack of patience. I'm more concerned about a 1.44 G-F ratio, the worst of his career, although sample size again figures into our analysis as he's only put 22 balls into play. You need to remain cautious here because he likely won't regain effectiveness quickly, although considering that his perceived value is likely low, explore any chance to acquire Williams since he should continue to improve for the rest of the year.
June Underachiever: Craig Counsell, IF Previous Underachievers: April: Mark Grace, 1B; Tony Womack, SS
His place here is more due to Braves' politics and an unfortunate injury than any overt ineffectiveness. The Braves don't like him because they dislike players with baseball skills, with Chipper Jones and Gary Sheffield among the limited exceptions into which they've stumbled. Giles could compile better qualitative and quantitative numbers in a full year of play than both Mark DeRosa and Keith Lockhart combined over a full year starting, but Bobby Cox doesn't like starting a slightly weaker defender for fear of irritating Atlanta's old pitchers' council. Now Giles is stuck in the minors until probably September and his owners have little to show for their investment. His skills are still solid and he deserves to start in the majors, so either hope Giles finds a job somewhere in the NL next year or deal him to a rebuilding team with similar expectations.
June Underachiever: Keith Lockhart, 2B Previous Underachievers: April: Javy Lopez, C; May: Gary Sheffield, OF
Perhaps we just give him a break because he's from my hometown, but we think Hundley is still recovering from his awful Wrigley introduction. Bruce Kimm finally intends to play him every day and Todd has shown some signs of regaining his power. He's still seeing over four pitches per plate appearance and maintains a favorable G-F ratio, so the problem lies with his atrocious .68 contact rate. I'm not sure he'll ever return to a .250+ BA, although we suspect his power will return, making him a target to acquire if you can take the BA hit.
June Underachiever: Bill Mueller, 3B Previous Underachievers: April: Fred McGriff, 1B; May: Moises Alou, OF
I've generally not picked on injured players so far as injuries are mostly bad luck, but Griffey's now been a giant disappointment for the last two years, and no one expected a Thomas-like decline from him. A dislocated kneecap and a strained hamstring have limited him to just 27 games so far in 2002, and I wouldn't be surprised if he Barry Sanders off into the sunset if he continues to stumble through September. Perhaps the opening of the Great American Ballpark next year will keep him active, although his career OPS trend is scary; his current .749 is the same as his rookie season. He's actually holding decent plate discipline with a .85 BB:K and .14 walk rate, both superior to his career averages, and there's nothing wrong with his 3.75 #P/PA. He should bat near .300 for the balance of the year, but his 1.29 G-F definitely concerns me. After a five-year stretch where it hovered between .63 and .77, it slammed up to .92 in 2001 before hitting the worst number since 1990 this year. He may not break 30 homers again if he can't drag it back down under 1.00, so only acquire Griffey if you're expecting a level of production approximating that of Austin Kearns.
June Underachiever: Todd Walker, 2B Previous Underachievers: April: Adam Dunn, OF; May: Aaron Boone, 3B
Every Rockies' starter except for Larry Walker and perhaps Todd Zeile belongs on this list, although Pierre is currently the most annoying of the bunch. He's at least contributing steals, but we valued him close to $40 based largely on a .320+ BA. A .53 BB:K is a severe departure from his 1.23 norm from the last two years. We've seen most media attribute his struggles to a combination of the humidor and better opposition scouting of his weaknesses. The depressed plate discipline is actually the biggest problem as he's still around his career 3.20 #P/PA and 2.93 G-F ratios, although a drop from a .95 to a .91 contact rate will negatively impact anyone with Pierre's statistical profile. He doesn't seem primed for a rebound, but he'll also stay fairly valuable due to his speed, so likely wait to move him until you receive a fantastic offer.
June Underachiever: Juan Uribe, SS Previous Underachievers: April: Jose Ortiz, 2B; May: Todd Hollandsworth, OF
He might be the fourth most valuable Marlin this year after Lowell, Castillo, and Burnett, but Lee has quietly assembled a fantasy season to rival that of former teammate Cliff Floyd while starting at a more important position. Look into adding him immediately as he typically raises his BA by 50 points after the break and jumps his OPS by .079, especially since both his .51 BB:K and .13 walk rate are the best marks of his career. He's even dropped his G-F down to .78, indicating he's finally developed a pure power swing just before his twenty-seventh birthday. You're looking at a potential fantasy stud if he moves to a team like Oakland, and his Florida steals thus far are a nice bonus. Only hesitate in seeking to acquire him if you can't keep NL players traded to the other league.
June Underachiever: Cliff Floyd, OF Previous Underachievers: April: Kevin Millar, OF; May: Charles Johnson, C
We're also quite concerned about Bagwell's injury but Ward's problems have affected us in far more leagues. His average has cratered as expected, considering he's only managed to walk as many times over 302 AB as he did in 2001 over 213 AB. His BB:K has fallen from .40 to .33 despite a rise in his #P/PA from 3.70 to 3.89. The only overly promising aspect of his stats is that his G-F is down to .82 after rising to 1.09 last season. As his .81 contact rate is also superior to both his .77 in 2001 and .77 career marks, we expect his power to continue emerging this season. At least a dozen homers appears reasonable, so if you need power and can afford a small BA hit, see if you can acquire Ward from his likely frustrated owner.
June Underachiever: Gregg Zaun, C Previous Underachievers: April: Morgan Ensberg, 3B; May: Craig Biggio, 2B
While we didn't expect Gary Sheffield, we also thought he could manage an .800+ OPS while approaching 100 RBI. A top-of-the-lineup with Dave Roberts, Paul Lo Duca, and Shawn Green should provide plenty of RBI opportunities, although Jim Tracy's daily grab bag hasn't always provided the proper lineups. Jordan's .08 walk rate is actually a nice improvement over 2001, as is his .41 BB:K. Although these are not good levels, they suggest he can ratchet his BA up a couple dozen points prior to the end of the season. He's seeing 3.70 #P/PA, well over .10 #P/PA above his previous career-best, and he's also holding a fairly decent 1.14 G-F. Especially in consideration of his injury history, I don't see enough upside here to warrant picking him up in most leagues, but you may be pleasantly surprised if you wait for his second half numbers.
June Underachiever: Cesar Izturis, SS Previous Underachievers: April: Shawn Green; May: Adrian Beltre, 3B
Every Brewer position player not named Sexson, Hernandez, or Sanchez has seemingly struggled this year, and despite remaining healthy, Hammonds is far from fulfilling the expectations of his $7M per year average salary. The surprising facet of his numbers is that he's holding his best plate discipline since 1998 with a .62 BB:K and .12 walk rate; he's even seeing a career-best 3.83 #P/PA. A 1.01 G-F ratio is slightly higher than normal, but combined with a .81 contact rate that's better than his career average, he should finish the year with around twenty homers if he avoids injury. However, Hammonds' health historically hinders his help. He's too risky to seek in trade except for a minimal offer, so you should probably wait to see if his second half achieves the level that his current skills suggest.
June Underachiever: Ron Belliard, IF Previous Underachievers: April: Raul Casanova, C; May: Eric Young, 2B
As I've used up my quota of Orlando Cabrera comments for the year in underachiever columns, Tatis seems a good choice as he's largely bombed since his breakout 1999. If he's truly healthy, we expect both a higher BA and more production from him at the annually disappointing NL third base slot. Instead he's posted a .10 walk rate, his worst ratio since 1998, and his .43 walk rate indicates his second worst plate discipline since that season. Although he's seeing almost .20 #P/PA more than last season, he hasn't regained any of his power stroke as his G-F remains at 1.24, the same number as last season, which is almost double the .66 G-F he achieved in 2000. Given his chronic injury problems and the current apparent malaise suffocating the Expos' offense, wait to observe the team trend over the next week before making any move involving Tatis.
June Underachiever: Orlando Cabrera, SS Previous Underachievers: April: Orlando Cabrera, SS; May: Lee Stevens, 1B
The Mets' power appears to have returned this week, and although Edgardo Alfonzo and Roger Cedeno have fallen short of our quantitative expectations, Burnitz's fall appears more dramatic, especially as he's now sitting even against many right-handers. His dreadful BA and decreased production leaves him perilously close to negative roto value, and he's turning into a Greg Vaughn-like albatross for both the Mets and his fantasy owners. A .13 walk rate, the second worst of his career, cancels out the maintenance of his .75 contact rate; however he's also holding a 4.12 #P/PA and .81 G-F, both superior to his career averages. He's an extremely risky pickup due to Bobby Valentine's irregular whims, but Burnitz offers significant power upside while possibly not hurting your average, making him a potential target to acquire.
June Underachiever: Mo Vaughn, 1B
While Scott Rolen and Marlon Anderson's struggles might seem more worrisome, Abreu's power outage likely truly depresses his owners, especially those that paid $40+ for one of the very few 30-30 men in the game. Fortunately Pat Burrell has helped boost Abreu's solid totals in RBI and runs, and Abreu's career-best 1.00 BB:K indicates a batting average likely to soar over .300 in the very near future. He's also attained career-best marks in contact rate and ground-fly ratio, suggesting the strong possibility of both a power and BA surge in the second half while holding his SB production. Abreu could even reach 30-30 in a full season, placing him the near the top of players contenders should seek to acquire.
June Underachiever: Doug Glanville, OF Previous Underachievers: April: Travis Lee, 1B; May: Mike Lieberthal, C
The primary joy of owning the Pokey Little Ex-Shortstop is that you can generally count on two dozen or more stolen bases each season; a half-dozen right now is rather unacceptable. Especially since stealing bases is one of Reese's best skills, as evidenced by his 84% career success rate, I don't understand why he's not running more. Unfortunately he doesn't have that many opportunities since his .40 BB:K is the second worst mark of his career, although as he's only ever reached .52, we're not discussing an especially wide range here. We can't expect any power since his 1.25 G-F ends three straight years of improvement and represents almost a 50% increase from 2001's .86. Reese remains a relatively weak player and a burden to his team, but his potential roto value is undeniable, so if his owner is tired of waiting for him to break out, see if you can acquire Reese to add perhaps a dozen or more bags to your team.
June Underachiever: Aramis Ramirez, 3B Previous Underachievers: April: Jason Kendall, C; May: Adrian Brown, OF
A fractured left wrist and now a strained quad have kept him out of all but 39 Padres' games, opening up the position for even less effective players. Wiki hit 8 homers in his 160 AB last season, and we can attribute his current reduction to a drastic increase in his G-F rate to 2.17 after never previously exceeding 1.48. Of course, a lack of power causes a higher G-F, and wrist problems can sap power, so he likely won't hit more than a couple more homers this year. Ignoring the power drain, his 4.04 #P/PA represents the still-rising peak of a very favorable three-year trend, and with his 1.35 BB:K and .21 walk rate both easily the best of his career, history suggests he'll approach a .300 BA when he returns to the lineup. Acquire him now, as his value may never be lower.
June Underachiever: Ray Lankford, OF Previous Underachievers: April: Ramon Vazquez, SS; May: Bubba Trammell, OF
Aurilia has plummeted back to earth after one of the best seasons ever by a shortstop in 2001. Injuries cost him most of his abilities as he spent April battling a strained groin, missed half of May to have bone chips removed from his elbow, and has lost so much power that he's dropped to the middle of the order. His decreased plate discipline is responsible for the BA drain as his .37 BB:K is .11 lower than his previously worst season. We'd expect a small power increase as his .71 G-F has noticeably dropped from a three-year .88 G-F average, but the combination of less discipline and making less contact will keep his value depreciated. Look to deal him since you likely need to upgrade if you'd counted on Aurilia as a major cog in your offense.
June Underachiever: J.T. Snow, 1B Previous Underachievers: April: Jeff Kent, 2B and Lost Son of Evil Knievel; May: Tsuyoshi Shinjo, OF
A combination of inconsistent playing time and general fragileness can ruin the value of any player. However if he regains his health, he should re-emerge as a huge fantasy threat. His 1.01 G-F is better than the two previous seasons, as is his 3.88 #P/PA. A .14 walk rate is solid and only slightly below his normal marks, and a .58 BB:K isn't substantially worse than his .66 average BB:K. His .76 contact rate is not nearly as helpful as last season's .80, but this stat also doesn't account for his weak BA and overall production. While Drew is likely too risky to acquire, you should wait on him since he still owns the skills necessary to provide a dramatic second-half boost to your team.
June Underachiever: Edgar Renteria, SS Previous Underachievers: April: Tino Martinez, 1B; May: Placido Polanco, IF
Click
here to read the previous article.
Please e-mail your comments to
tim@rotohelp.com. |
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