Today's Fantasy Rx

I examined the past couple months of underachieving and overachieving player articles at the request of a reader and found myself agreeing that listing all their skill ratios, both for 2002 and their career, wound up looking somewhat convoluted. Since I also don't want to list these numbers in table format for both time and space reasons, beginning with today's article, I'm going to focus only on the skill ratios that offer us an indication as to the player's upcoming performance.

Note: The beginning of most stat lines includes data for H/AB for BA/OBP/SLG.

Anaheim: Scott Spiezio, 1B
76/277 for .274/.371/.419 with 5 HR, 45 RBI, 44 R, 4/7 SB%, and 42:37 BB:K.

While his overall level of production isn't bad considering we keep seeing him go for around $5 in our AL-only leagues, Spiezio neither has the power nor the BA we expect of him. His SLG has regressed to his .418 career average after peaking at .465 in 2000 despite a .72 G-F perfectly in line with his .65-.87 historical range. The shock in these stats is the incredible 1.16 BB:K, especially since his career mark is .67 and he's never been above .81 in a full season of play. Given these relatively strong indications of future improvement and the Angels' lack of alternatives, look to acquire Spiezio for even more of the same cheap production he's provided thus far.

June Underachiever: Darin Erstad, OF
Old stats: 72/243 for .296/.332/.387 with 4 HR, 34 RBI, 35 R, 9/11 SB%, and 14:21 BB:K.
Recommendation: deal.
Stats since recommendation: 37/122 for.303 with 2 HR, 18 RBI, 22 R, 6/6 SB%, and 5:12 BB:K.

Previous Underachievers: April: Tim Salmon, OF; May: Brad Fullmer, DH

Baltimore: David Segui, 1B/DH
25/95 for .263/.336/.368 for 2 HR, 16 RBI, 10 R, 0/0 SB%, and 11:22 BB:K before hitting the DL.

Segui went on the DL on May 18th with wrist problems, and after consulting with specialists, decided to have surgery to repair the torn cartilage and tendons in his left wrist. Even with a move to the 60-day DL, he's eligible to return any time, but most recent reports indicate the only baseball activity in which he can't participate is hitting, a slight problem for the Orioles' primary DH. Wrist problems generally sap power at least in the current season, so even if he comes back in the near future, we can't expect much from him in 2002. A 1.19 G-F prior to the injury doesn't support much power development anyway, and there's a chance he'll either remain out much of the year or won't even hold a league average BA upon returning. If you've been holding onto Segui in the hope of late season help, look to deal or cut him in favor of someone with more upside.

June Underachiever: Brook Fordyce, C
Old stats: 12/66 for .182/.270/.273 with 1 HR, 3 RBI, 3 R, 0/0 SB%, and 4:11 BB:K.
Recommendation: deal or otherwise move.
Stats since recommendation: 7/21 for .333 with 0 HR, 2 RBI, 3 R, 1/1 SB%, and 3:4 BB:K.

Previous Underachievers: April: Chris Singleton, OF; May: Mike Bordick, SS

Boston: Manny Ramirez, OF
66/199 for .332/.455/.598 with 14 HR, 47 RBI, 39 R, 0/0 SB%, and 41:36 BB:K.

Manny hasn't truly missed a beat since returning from a broken index finger that sidelined him for a month, and although he won't reach the quantitative stats of most preseason expectations, his production still ranks with the best players in the majors. However his skills have changed dramatically this season, as his 1.85 G-F ratio is the worst mark of his career, .55 higher than that from his weak 1997 season and .89 higher than his third worst G-F year. This new groundball tendency suggests a potential drop in SLG and even BA since Manny lacks almost any speed, although another phenomena might counter the latter worry. His .21 walk rate is the best of his career and his 1.14 BB:K is .32 better than his mark from 1996. Increasing plate discipline and a lack of flyballs would be wonderful for a young speedster, but Ramirez's value might continue to drop if he's not producing much power or supporting BA. Consider a deal involving Ramirez if you can acquire at least one player with comparable power production and improve another position, as Manny stands a good chance of finishing the year with an OPS below 1.000 for the first time since 1998.

June Underachiever: Rickey Henderson, OF/DH
Old stats: 24/96 for .250/.368/.375 with 2 HR, 10 RBI, 19 R, 5/6 SB%, and 15:24 BB:K.
Recommendation: wait.
Stats since recommendation: 7/35 for .200 with 2 HR, 4 RBI, 8 R, 2/2 SB%, and 7:14 BB:K.

Previous Underachievers: April: Trot Nixon, OF; May: Tony Clark, 1B

Chicago White Sox: Frank Thomas, DH
82/335 for .245/.342/.436 with 14 HR, 58 RBI, 44 R, 2/2 SB%, and 49:75 BB:K.

While these are mildly acceptable numbers for some players, everyone expects more from perhaps the best hitter of the '90s. Driving back from the Futures' Game, we were amazed to discover that not only had Thomas showed up to batting practice over an hour late that day, he apparently pouted in response to a second straight day of pine time on Saturday. He was irked since Jerry Manuel informed him that he'd be sitting on Friday prior to the game, but Thomas only found out about not starting for Saturday when he saw the posted lineup. As we continued to listen to the radio, we heard quotes from both Paul Konerko and Tony Graffanino, two of the acknowledged veteran leaders of the Sox, soundly disparaged Thomas and suggested that they didn't want someone in the clubhouse who acted in such a childish manner. We even recently discovered that Thomas' mansion is for sale, so maybe he's already preparing to leave Chicago, figuring he can get a comparable contract after Reinsdorf exercises a clause in his contract that will defer all but the major league minimum from Thomas' contract until after 2006.

Regardless of what specific off-field issue is troubling him on a given day, Thomas' skills indicate fundamental improvement. His 4.19 #P/PA is the highest number since his second year, and his career-best .41 G-F continues a three-year trend of diminishing grounders. Unfortunately these improvements haven't even boosted his OPS over .800, and the worst BB:K and walk rate of his career suggest his BA will remain at its current level. You should probably wait and hope for a rebound since that possibility offers more benefit than anything you'd likely receive in trade.

June Underachiever: Ray Durham, 2B
Old stats: 60/220 for .273/.373/.355 with 3 HR, 27 RBI, 44 R, 16/18 SB%, and 33:47 BB:K.
Recommendation: wait.
Stats since recommendation: 39/113 for .345 with 6 HR, 21 RBI, 26 R, 4/7 SB%, and 16:11 BB:K.

Previous Underachievers: April: Carlos Lee, OF; May: Royce Clayton, SS

Cleveland: Matt Lawton, OF
71/293 for .242/.351/.410 with 10 HR, 37 RBI, 53 R, 5/13 SB%, and 45:19 BB:K.

I almost selected Travis Fryman here, but he just went on the DL and could be out for a while. Instead a former overachiever crosses to the dark side as Lawton's lack of speed and BA have left him with significantly less value than previous seasons. He's due to return from a DL trip for a strained calf this weekend, although I have no idea where he'll hit when he's back. The improved power isn't a fluke in as much as he tapped into his skills from 1997-98, also the last seasons he was lower than his current 1.52 G-F. Another difference between 2002 and previous seasons is that Lawton's posting a wonderful 2.37 BB:K, almost a full point better than his previous high of 1.44 from 2000. So while the combination of more flyballs and reduced strikeouts supports continuous power development, we can't expect many more steals due to both his injuries and the Indians' likely conservative tendencies. Look to acquire Lawton if you need BA or power help; seek other players if you need a second half speed boost.

June Underachiever: Einar Diaz, C
Old stats: 39/180 for .217/.270/.317 with 2 HR, 12 RBI, 22 R, 0/1 SB%, and 12:14 BB:K.
Recommendation: acquire.
Stats since recommendation: 16/74 for .216 with 0 HR, 1 RBI, 6 R, 0/0 SB%, and 4:11 BB:K.

Previous Underachievers: April: Ricky Gutierrez, 2B; May: Brady Anderson, OF

Detroit: Damion Easley, 2B
29/144 for .201/.314/.326 with 4 HR, 13 RBI, 13 R, 1/1 SB%, and 16:18 BB:K.

He missed over a month with a pulled left oblique muscle, but he's actually displayed surprising plate discipline when healthy. Easley has posted a respectable .89 BB:K and .11 walk rate, both marks nicely above his .54 and .10 respective career averages. I don't think you can count on him for the normal double-digit steals and his RBI and runs will be down due to the general lack of support in the Tigers' offense compared to even recent years. Fortunately his solid plate discipline indicates he should finish the year near his .255 career BA, suggesting he could approach a .290 BA for the balance of the season. If you need BA and some power in the middle infield, attempt to acquire Easley.

June Underachiever: Chris Truby, 3B
Old stats: 44/191 for .230/.260/.356 with 3 HR, 12 RBI, 15 R, 2/3 SB%, and 6:48 BB:K.
Recommendation: deal.
Stats since recommendation: 11/31 for .355 with 1 HR, 3 RBI, 4 R, 0/1 SB%, and 0:5 BB:K.

Previous Underachievers: April: Jose Macias, 2B/OF; May: Craig Paquette, 3B/UT

Kansas City: Mark Quinn, OF
18/76 for .237/.301/.368 with 2 HR, 11 RBI, 9 R, 2/3 SB%, and 5:15 BB:K.

Mighty Quinn lasted less than a month on the big league roster before heading back to the DL on June 8th. Instead of the tomfoolery-induced rib fracture that kept him out until May 12th, he's now missing time with a strained left hamstring. I'll be surprised if he returns before August, and he could remain rehabbing through much of next month. When healthy, he displayed a solid 1.29 G-F, the best mark since his 1999 September call-up, but the sample size was quite small and his other skills are weak. If you own him at a reasonable price, talk to rebuilding teams about a potential deal since while he won't help much this year, he should return to starting in 2003.

June Underachiever: Chuck Knoblauch, OF
Old stats: 25/150 for .167/.241/.253 with 3 HR, 14 RBI, 20 R, 12/12 SB%, and 14:15 BB:K.
Recommendation: acquire.
Stats since recommendation: 3/7 for 429 with 0 HR, 0 RBI, 4 R, 2/2 SB%, and 2:1 BB:K.

Previous Underachievers: April: Brent Mayne, C; May: Raul Ibanez, DH

Minnesota: Corey Koskie, 3B
84/298 for .282/.389/.470 with 9 HR, 43 RBI, 51 R, 9/15 SB%, and 47:74 BB:K.

Even accounting for his sprained wrist in Spring Training and two weeks missed in May with a torn right hamstring, most people expected him to be in the mid-teens for both homers and stolen bases. We can blame his hamstring for the reduction in steals, along with recognizing that his 27 bags in 2001 were three times as much as his previous career total. His .470 SLG actually is above his .463 career mark and only eighteen points below his 2001 career-high; a 1.21 G-F is also comparable to his 1.16 2001 and 1.25 career ratios. He's even seeing the most pitches in his career at 3.99 #P/PA, a strong number that supports his .16 walk rate. Overall I don't see a substantial difference between his stats this season and those from his career-year in 2001, and I believe he can approach last year's total value. As I also believe he's generally undervalued at the moment, contenders should certainly make an attempt to acquire Koskie.

June Underachiever: David Ortiz, DH
Old stats: 34/146 for .233/.304/.397 with 4 HR, 27 RBI, 16 R, 0/0 SB%, and 17:31 BB:K.
Recommendation: acquire.
Stats since recommendation: 24/75 for .320 with 7 RBI, 15 RBI, 15 R, 1/1 SB%, and 8:13 BB:K.

Previous Underachievers: April: Cristian Guzman, SS; May: Doug Mientkiewicz, 1B

New York Yankees: John Vander Wal, OF
41/155 for ,265/.326/.419 with 3 HR, 16 RBI, 19 R, 1/2 SB%, and 15:44 BB:K.

The acquisition of Raul Mondesi ends any chance for Vander Wal to receive extended playing time this year. He's earning the buck or two at which he was drafted in most leagues, but consistent at-bats or power seem unlikely for the thirty-six-year-old. He's posting his worst OBP and OPS since 1997 and I'm also concerned about a suddenly weak BB:K that's fallen to .34 after not falling past .56 in five seasons. You can no longer count on him to provide any helpful production this year, so your best bet is to see if Shane Spencer's owner will deal for another Yankee backup.

June Underachiever: Shane Spencer, OF
Old stats: 38/156 for .244/.320/.391 with 4 HR, 21 RBI, 22 R, 0/2 SB%, and 16:35 BB:K.
Recommendation: acquire.
Stats since recommendation: 14/58 for .241 with 1 HR, 7 RBI, 5 R, 0/0 SB%, and 8:16 BB:K.

Previous Underachievers: April: Bernie Williams, OF; May: Nick Johnson, 1B/DH

Oakland: David Justice, OF/DH
55/206 for .267/.399/.383 with 5 HR, 22 RBI, 28 R, 2/2 SB%, and 45:32 BB:K.

A bruised triceps and then a nagging strained right groin have kept the thirty-six-year-old former Mr. Halle Berry from full-time action this year. He's never posted an OBP higher than his SLG prior to 2002, so we can expect him to either regain his power stroke or for his BA to drop. A 4.19 #P/PA is the second-best mark of his career, he's never even approached his current .22 walk rate, and a 1.41 BB:K is easily the best plate discipline ratio of his career, so I doubt his BA will decrease; it appears far more likely to end up above his .280 career average. His 1.19 G-F is approximately the same as his 2001 mark, so I expect him to easily finish with double-digit homers. As long as you can afford a part-time player, Justice should contribute to four categories, making him a very intriguing player to acquire.

June Underachiever: Jermaine Dye, OF
Old stats: 42/165 for .255/.344/.418 with 5 HR, 25 RBI, 22 R, 0/0 SB%, and 21:39 BB:K.
Recommendation: acquire.
Stats since recommendation: 24/98 for .245 with 4 HR, 12 RBI, 14 R, 0/0 SB%, and 15:24 BB:K.

Previous Underachievers: April: Ramon Hernandez, C; May: Terrence Long, OF

Seattle: Edgar Martinez, DH
32/120 for .267/.364/.433 with 4 HR, 18 RBI, 16 R, 0/1 SB%, and 16:34 BB:K.

Edgar hasn't posted a BA below .306 or OPS worse than .966 since 1994. He didn't crack the Mariners' starting lineup between April 11th and June 28th due to a ruptured tendon behind his left knee; he returned from the DL to occasionally pinch-hit until the end of interleague play. While he's theoretically healthy, he's also thirty-nine and likely can't play many more years. Neither his G-F nor #P/PA has shown any significant deterioration, but a .47 BB:K is easily the worst mark of his career and a .13 walk rate is his worst since the '80s. Only his injury and subsequent timing problems appear a reasonable explanation for this sudden skill erosion in one of the most disciplined hitters of the last few decades. Unless another contender is interested in him, you should probably just wait and hope that he'll recover soon to help for the last two months of the season.

June Underachiever: Mike Cameron, OF
Old stats: 50/229 for .218/.335/.428 with 10 HR, 33 RBI, 43 R, 11/12 SB%, and 36:74 BB:K.
Recommendation: deal.
Stats since recommendation: 26/104 for .250 with 8 HR, 26 RBI, 15 R, 7/9 SB%, and 12:32 BB:K.

Previous Underachievers: April: Jeff Cirillo, 3B; May: Bret Boone, 2B

Tampa Bay: Ben Grieve, OF
79/313 for .252/.344/.419 with 10 HR, 40 RBI, 35 R, 4/5 SB%, and 38:78 BB:K.

The 1998 AL Rookie of the Year is suffering through his second straight year of declining ability. Perhaps he just needs another change of scenery to a team that appreciates actual baseball skills. With Tampa, his BB:K has fallen to .49 and more worrisome, his power may not return any time soon. This 2002 season is the third straight year that his G-F has risen, and a 2.32 G-F suggests no power development in the near future. You should probably explore a deal with rebuilding teams that are willing to wait until 2003 for potential improvement.

June Underachiever: Brent Abernathy, 2B
Old stats: 63/248 for .254/.297/.335 with 2 HR, 17 RBI, 25 R, 6/10 SB%, and 14:26 BB:K.
Recommendation: deal.
Stats since recommendation: 27/103 for .262 with 0 HR, 9 RBI, 11 R, 3/3 SB%, and 6:8 BB:K.

Previous Underachievers: April: Greg Vaughn, OF; May: Toby Hall, C

Texas: Ivan Rodriguez, C
53/192 for .276/.322/.469 with 8 HR, 28 RBI, 25 R, 2/3 SB%, and 13:34 BB:K.

A herniated disk caused him to miss all of May along with a week each in April and June, but like Edgar's fall from historical levels, a .791 OPS is IRod's worst level since 1995. Rodriguez has never posted an impressive OBP, peaking at .375 in 2000, the same year he reached a .667 SLG, over 100 points above his next best power year. However his G-F has fallen for three straight years down to .88 this season, so we should see some power development within the next couple of seasons, especially if he can stay healthy or switch to a less demanding position. I'm also intrigued by him matching his career-best 3.47 #P/PA, even if his .82 contact rate and traditionally weak walk rate negate that gain. You can at least expect solid quantitative numbers from Rodriguez for the rest of the season, and if you can afford the asking price from a likely frustrated owner, look to acquire IRod as he makes his free agent push.

June Underachiever: Gabe Kapler, OF
Old stats: 42/163 for .258/.287/.331 with 0 HR, 14 RBI, 19 R, 5/6 SB%, and 8:25 BB:K.
Recommendation: acquire Kapler upon any trade or roster move returning him to regular playing time.
Stats since recommendation: 6/22 for .273 with 0 HR, 3 RBI, 4 R, 0/1 SB%, and 0:3 BB:K.

Previous Underachievers: April: Carl Everett, OF; May: Frank Catalanotto, 2B/OF

Toronto: Carlos Delgado, 1B
88/349 for .252/.388/.504 with 20 HR, 71 RBI, 62 R, 1/1 SB%, and 72:95 BB:K.

Several columnists have pointed out that Delgado's 2000 season doesn't appear to belong with the rest of his stats; all three of his averages that year were all fifty or more points higher than his next best mark in any year. His 1.18 BB:K in 2000 is also the only time he's been over 1.00, and he fell to .82 in 2001 and then .76 this season. A solid .76 G-F supports yearly 35+ HR power, although I'd be surprised if his BA broke .300 in more than one season for the rest of his career. While he provides two-to-three category help, you might want to investigate any deal where you could replace that production over multiple positions and improve your BA and steals.

June Underachiever: Jose Cruz, Jr., OF
Old stats: 56/247 for .227/.306/.385 with 9 HR, 30 RBI, 30 R, 5/5 SB%, and 29:61 BB:K.
Recommendation: acquire.
Stats since recommendation: 27/103 for .262 with 6 HR, 15 RBI, 16 R, 1/2 SB%, and 12:17 BB:K.

Previous Underachievers: April: Darren Fletcher, C; May: Raul Mondesi, OF

Today's Fantasy Rx: Some players are finally returning after spending much or all of the year on the DL. If you're looking for a normally unnoticed place for help, explore your leagues' DL list. If anyone on there is due back in the near future and can improve your team at a weak position or in a weak category, see if you can acquire them cheaply.