Today's Fantasy Rx

Thirty pitchers earned a 1 for their performance this season as of two weeks ago. Three more joined the list this week while three dropped off, leaving our total of LIMA-quality 2002 AL pitchers with at least 15 IP at thirty AL pitchers.

Pitchers who joined the list include Jarrod Washburn, Eddie Guardado, and Mark Mulder.

Pitchers who dropped off the list include Ben Weber(K:BB), Jason Johnson(HR/9; H/9), and Roberto Hernandez(H/9).

Please refer here if you'd like to take another look at some of our methodology.

LPR Code Description
1 - K:BB of 2.0+, K/9 of 6.0+, HR/9 of 1.0-, and H/9 of 9.0- thus far in 2002
2 - K:BB of 2.0+, K/9 of 6.0+, HR/9 of 1.0-, and H/9 of 9.0- in the second half of 2001
3 - K:BB of 2.0+, K/9 of 6.0+, HR/9 of 1.0-, and H/9 of 9.0- in the first half of 2001
4 - K:BB of 2.0+, K/9 of 6.0+, HR/9 of 1.0-, and H/9 of 9.0- for all of 2000

a - DOM of 55% or more in 2002
b - DOM of 55% or more in 2001
c - DOM of 55% or more in 2000
x - DIS of 20% or less in 2002
y - DIS of 20% or less in 2001
z - DIS of 20% or less in 2000

(Note: I used the PQS logs from Baseball Forecaster to create these ratings, and I strongly recommend that you purchase a copy if you haven't already.

Here is the tenth set of 2002 in-season AL LPR ratings which include all games played through July 18th. We ranked pitchers by the highest LIMA rating and then by the best PQS rating. Starting pitchers, if necessary, are ranked by their performance over their last five starts, which I include after the pitchers name in chronological order, ending with his most recent appearance.

1234
abcxyz - Pedro Martinez(54545)

Arthur Rhodes
Mariano Rivera

Pedro's absolutely cruising right now, and either reliever will provide help in ERA/WHIP along with the wins and saves.

123
abcxyz - Roger Clemens(20224)
abxy - Roy Halladay(54443)

Eddie Guardado
Troy Percival

With two of these pitchers on the DL, Halladay and Guardado may rank as the most promising potential pickups for your team. Halladay's 3 was his first non-dominant start in two months.

124
Chad Bradford
Ugueth Urbina

If Bradford is unowned in your league and you have more than four teams and count ERA or WHIP, you should definitely move to add him; he's primed for some vultured wins or saves and can definitely help qualitatively.
134
Billy Koch
Cliff Politte
Paul Shuey

Politte and Shuey rank in the top five of potential closers, so keep watch on both of them.

234
Keith Foulke

He's one perfect inning short of heading back to the top spot, making now a really good time to grab him before everyone realizes that he's primed to resume full-time closing duties. Our only concern is the occasional trade rumor, but the Sox can't afford to trade one of the most accomplished relievers in baseball.

12
by - Mark Mulder(53545)
b - Joel Pineiro(43342)

After an absence from this list likely not due to alien abduction, Mulder returns to his rightful place. He and Piniero should be definite targets for any rebuilding or contending team, both likely worth the cost in trade.

Matt Ginter
Ricardo Rincon
Kaz Sasaki

Ginter and Rincon persist in quietly earning respectable value in most leagues, and Kaz continues to anchor a fairly deep bullpen.

13
by - Tim Wakefield(4535)

Buddy Groom
Steve Karsay

Wakefield remains quite undervalued, albeit a risky pickup since Boston could leave him in to eat innings in a blowout at any time. Groom and Karsay will also contend for the best middle reliever title in the second half.

23
abcxyz - Mike Mussina(24245)
abxyz - Tim Hudson(23431)
bcxyz - Chan Ho Park(43442)
byz - Kevin Appier(53452)
x - Danys Baez(30453)

I have questions about all these starters despite their fantastic 2001 seasons. Hudson and Mussina have the most upside, although Park in particular is a likely cheap trade acquisition with excellent upside.

24
cx - Paul Wilson(32453)

Dan Miceli
Todd Van Poppel

Wilson's value will slam upwards if dealt to a contender, as he won't hurt you and might finally accumulate some wins.

34
xy - Joe Kennedy(22442)

Randy Choate
Rich Garces
Bob Howry
David Riske
Mike Stanton

Only Stanton and perhaps Riske are good bets here, although Kennedy continues to demonstrate intriguing potential.

1
a - Johan Santana(50550)
x - John Halama(52403)

We sold high on Santana a week ago, but both these pitchers could provided needed fantasy help if left in the rotation.

Juan Acevedo
Francisco Cordero
Alan Embree
Casey Fossum
LaTroy Hawkins
Jorge Julio
Damaso Marte
J.C. Romero

With three of these pitchers either on the DL or in the minors, Julio and LaTroy Hawkins have emerged as very good choices in practically any league.
2
abcxyz - Barry Zito(03534)
axy - Freddy Garcia(50451)
bx - Rolando Arrojo(55502)
z - Kelvim Escobar

There's nothing wrong with Zito or Garcia, and despite the trade rumors, Escobar should be fine if left alone to close in Toronto.

C.C. Sabathia(33232)
Matt Anderson
Lorzeno Barcelo
Shigetoshi Hasegawa
Antonio Osuna
Lou Pote
B.J. Ryan
Rudy Seanez
Victor Zambrano

Only Osuna interests me from this list as everyone else is either injured, buried in the minors, or struggling.

3
bxy - John Burkett(52234)
yz - Rick Reed(03443)
y - Andy Pettitte(25043)

We see some signs of improvement from all three pitchers, although you should recognize that each is capable of some very annoying disasters.

Gary Glover(00332)
Al Levine
Jim Mecir
Jeff Nelson
Travis Phelps
John Rocker
Bob Wickman
Kelly Wunsch

Consider charging after Phelps, since if Tampa moves Yan, either he or Travis Harper would be the best candidate to close.
4
ax - Derek Lowe(45244)
y - Luke Prokopec(02542)

Jerrod Riggan

Lowe's lack of strikeouts, when combined with his expected tiring in the second half and Boston's defense already showing some problems as they've slipped from best in the majors to fifth, indicates immediate potential for trouble. You might want to explore a trade, especially if moving Lowe will either assure you of a title or enable you to grab one or two top keepers.

a
xyz - Ramon Ortiz(53450)
xy - Jeff Weaver(54444)
xy - Mark Buehrle(22453)
xz - Orlando Hernandez(44052)
xz - Chuck Finley(35230)
Rob Bell(53414)

Only Pedro has more consecutive DOM starts at the moment than Weaver, although it's likely too late to deal for him at a reasonable price; still, if you can add him, Weaver could grab over a half dozen wins with solid ERA/WHIP. Bell looks interesting for keeper leagues, and Ortiz remains very effective. If Finley is dealt to a contender, especially one in the NL, he could have an impact approaching that of Randy Johnson in 1998.

b
y - Cory Lidle(33330)
Brandon Lyon(20300)
Matt Wise

Lidle remains risky but we still like his upside. We also hope Wise finds his way to a team that will give him two months in the starting rotation like he deserves after his third good AAA year in a row.

c
x - David Wells(55134)
x - Mark Redman(34234)
Sterling Hitchcock(00)

While Wells should interest every contender given his solid work this year and win potential, Redman's poor strikeout rate leaves him a safe play only if you need innings but limits his upside and attractiveness as a keeper.

x
yz - Jarrod Washburn(45533)
y - Tanyon Sturtze(41442)
y - Jeff Suppan(24422)
y - Paul Byrd(41133)
z - Frank Castillo(33240)
Rodrigo Lopez(41443)
Shawn Sedlacek(43234)
Ryan Rupe(42500)
James Baldwin(32344)

Washburn, Rod Lopez, and Baldwin are the safest plays here. If rebuilding, attempt to grab Sedlacek, since while he probably could use more development time, I'm rather impressed by the lack of a single disaster in his first five starts; of course, my comment only guarantees a problem in his next game. I'd generally avoid Suppan and even Byrd until one of them lands on a contender.

y
z - Aaron Sele(04324)
z - Todd Ritchie(34033)
z - Kenny Rogers(43033)
z - Brad Radke(15300)
z - Pat Hentgen
Dave Burba(43203)
Eric Milton(05354)
Esteban Loiaza(30205)
Jon Garland(33233)
Scott Schoeneweis(32030)
Erik Hiljus(40200)
Josh Towers(121)
Doug Davis(12120)
Paul Abbott(02300)
Joe Mays(000)
Rick Bauer

Ritchie and Garland are quietly demonstrating a consistently solid level of performance, although their lack of DOM leaves them with little upside. Like Finley, Kenny Rogers could take off if dealt to the NL, and we also harbor high expectations for Burba and Schoeneweis if moved.

z
Steve Parris(04244)
Jason Johnson(54141)
Sidney Ponson(02032)
Blake Stein(02)
Jim Parque

I'm rather surprised by the sudden effectiveness of Steve Parris, although you'll want to remain somewhat wary of his past problems. Johnson and Ponson remain as interesting as ever, and an intelligent Baltimore GM would deal both of them and Scott Erickson to thoroughly stock their minors. With Syd Thrift running the Orioles, don't expect more than one trade at most.

AL pitchers I recommend despite their failure to appear here include Jeremy Affeldt(33050), Brendan Donnelly, Aaron Harang(05530), Travis Harper(044), Roberto Hernandez, Sun-Woo Kim(3), John Lackey(5334), Ted Lilly(02505), Kyle Lohse(53045), Ramiro Mendoza, Brian Moehler(43), Jason Phillips(43), Jay Powell, Scot Shields, Ismael Valdes(35132), Pete Walker(40204), Ben Weber, and Esteban Yan. Please recognize that these are fairly risky or unproven players, but most aren't missing much to at least pick up a 1 rating fairly soon.

Other pitchers who you probably shouldn't deploy right now include Miguel Ascencio(31023), Adam Bernero(43002), Ryan Bukvich, Chris Carpenter(33253), Ryan Drese(03502), Travis Driskill(11310), Scott Erickson(24335), Tony Fiore(22), Ryan Franklin(330), Seth Greisinger(03400), Matt Kinney(32021), Mike Maroth(03050), Darrell May(40543), Charles Nagy(0), Dan Reichert(01231), Juan Rincon(400), Willis Roberts, Steve Sparks(323002), Anthony Telford, Mark Wohlers, and Danny Wright(30434).

Today's Fantasy Rx: It's FAAB time as we expect at least a couple of significant trades. If you need pitching, jump on any lefty starter traded into the NL. For offense, key on secondary players who will either gain playing time after the incumbent is dealt or players likely to benefit in runs and RBI from better surrounding players.