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July
16th
2002
Your Daily Fantasy Rx
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NL Roto Batting Prospects, July 2002
by Tim Polko

Today's Fantasy Rx

We'll continue reviewing potential FAAB-worthy batting prospects in the National League today.


Note: For those of you unfamiliar with FAAB, each team normally has $100 to spend throughout the year on all free agent pickups. Most injury replacements or speculative picks go for a buck or two, hot starters go for $5-$10, top prospects go in the $10-$30 range, and we've seen $90+ bids on top players traded into the league, as well as selected call-ups.


Arizona: Lyle Overbay, 25, 1B-L
.333/.389/.501 in 345 AB with 11 HR, 69 RBI, 52 R, 0/0 SB%, and 29:55 BB:K at Tucson(PCL).

We see almost daily expectation and theorization about a potential Overbay deal, but Arizona shouldn't help their NL rivals like Atlanta, and Oakland likely won't want someone with fairly bad plate discipline, so of the other contenders, only Boston seems like a logical destination. He should maintain most of his power upon a promotion, although he'll struggle to hold an .800 OPS due to his weak walk rate and expected drop in BA. However his BA also shouldn't fall much below the .270-.280 range, so whenever he debuts this season, there's no reason not to spend significant FAAB here if he'll start.

Previous prospects: May: Ernie Young; June: Chad Tracy.


Atlanta: Mike Hessman, 24, 3B/1B-R
.272/.328/.519 in 316 AB with 20 HR, 55 RBI, 47 R, 1/6 SB%, and 21:68 BB:K at AAA Richmond(IL).

We saw him display significant power in the 2001 AFL after he impressed few people in his second straight AA season. Now he's the only Richmond player with a SLG over even .450, and his general position flexibility makes him a top candidate if either Wes Helms or the ageless Julio Franco suffer an injury. Despite his currently acceptable BA, he's likely to suffer if promoted due to his dreadful plate discipline, so unless you're desperate for power, ignore any 2002 promotion.

Previous prospects: May: Matt Franco; June: Ramon Castro.


Chicago Cubs: Julio Zuleta, 27, 1B/OF-R
.288/.355/.607 in 267 AB with 23 HR, 58 RBI, 54 R, 0/0 SB%, and 24:62 BB:K at AAA Iowa(PCL).

The Cubs' descent out of contention in 2001 began when they demoted Zuleta, widely acknowledged for sparking their first surge into the race Pedro Cerrano-style, and he's remained in the minors since last June. Reports from this year's Spring Training indicated that only a minor hamstring injury kept Zuleta from playing in Japan this year; fortunately for the Iowa Cubs, Zuleta stayed and is now tied for the PCL lead in homers. Chicago recently promoted Angel Echevarria as a right-handed pinch-hitter, so I fail to understand why Zuleta is not either providing right-handed power off the Cubs bench instead of Chris Stynes, or more logically, isn't platooning with Brad Fullmer out in Anaheim. As long as he's set for at least a couple starts a week, there's little reason not to FAAB Zuleta for a couple bucks upon his next promotion.

Previous prospects: May: Hee Seop Choi; June: Adam Melhuse.


Cincinnati: Jeff Frye, 35, UT-R
.288/.349/.326 in 288 AB with 1 HR, 19 RBI, 35 R, 2/5 SB%, and 27:29 BB:K at AAA Louisville(IL).

AA Chattanooga is filled with minor league free agents, failed prospects, and Wily Mo Pena and Dane Sardinha, both of whom need at least another year in the minors, and possibly much longer. Frye is probably the player most likely to see extended major league action later this year as the Reds and other teams look for a veteran infielder for their bench. At this point, he's not even significantly better than someone like Chris Sexton, and with his speed and even doubles' power now gone, Frye offers little even to Major League teams. Ignore him when he returns to the majors.

Previous prospects: May: Brandon Larson; June: Bobby Darula.


Colorado: Raphael (Choo) Freeman, 22, OF-R
.329/.442/.510 in 292 AB with 9 HR, 50 RBI, 63 R, 11/22 SB%, and 49:62 BB:K at AA Carolina(SL).

Another Bob Villa finally learns carpentry! Cliff Brumbaugh's still hitting consistently in AAA, but Choo's emergence is more impressive as this tools goof's walk rate has almost tripled even though he was promoted to AA this year. While I'm disappointed in the erosion of his stolen base rate, he's finally looking like the prospect scouts saw when he was drafted 36th overall in 1998. Choo owns the best power/speed combo of any Rockies' prospect in full-season ball and I suspect they'll give him every opportunity to establish himself in the majors. If he gets a look in September, we'll certainly look to grab him for a couple bucks of FAAB, although he should spend next season in AAA.

Previous prospects: May: Jack Cust; June: Ben Petrick.


Florida: Brian Banks, 31, 1B/OF/C-S
.328/.424/.575 for 308 AB with 14 HR, 64 RBI, 66R, 9/12 SB%, and 52:55 BB:K at AAA Calgary(PCL).

Every team in the majors fails to realize the value of someone like Banks; maybe they're not used to a switch-hitting 1B/OF who can catch and possesses power and plate discipline, making him a near-perfect 25th man. He could immediately produce off the bench in the majors and deserves an immediate promotion. However since no one seems likely to trust Banks, ignore his next call-up unless he finds regular playing time.

Previous prospects: May: Jesus Medrano; June: Abraham Nunez.


Houston: Morgan Ensberg, 26, 3B-R
.314/.443/.464 in 140 AB with 4 HR, 18 RBI, 30 R, 9/12 SB%, and 29:25 BB:K at AAA New Orleans(PCL).

Normally I'd prefer to discuss someone who's spent all year in the minors but Ensberg's stats warrant attention. The 8 errors in 41 games shouldn't be a problem for an intelligent manager that rewards production; he stays in the minors as Jimy Williams runs the Astros. If someone realizes that Ensberg's really too old to be a prospect and needs immediate big league playing time, he'll begin contributing to the Astros' playoff push. Seek out his owner in your league and attempt to acquire Ensberg since he's still both their best 2002 and long-term option at third, or break out the FAAB if he's been dropped altogether.

Previous prospects: May: Henry Stanley; June: Jason Lane.


Los Angeles: Chin-Feng Chen, 24, 1B-R
.280/.350/.519 in 347 AB with 20 HR, 60 RBI, 57 R, 1/1 SB%, and 41:105 BB:K at AAA Las Vegas(PCL).

After stealing 23 bases in 38 attempts in 2000, he appears to have completely lost his speed and now is Eric Karros' apparent heir at 1B. The Dodgers have handled his development very badly, letting him debut at A+ San Bernardino, promoting him to AA San Antonio in 2000, and then sending him back down to A+ Vero Beach for the first half of last year before recalling him to AA Jacksonville. At least he developed plate discipline at AA in 2001 but his contact rate has plummeted even as he's maintained a decent walk rate. He probably deserves a September call-up and 2002 starting job, since even though the PCL has aided his power numbers, he should outperform the power-deficient Karros. Spend a few bucks of FAAB on him if you need power or have roster space for a decent keeper.

Previous prospects: May: Mike Kinkade; June: Luke Allen.


Milwaukee: Jim Rushford, 28, OF/1B-L
.296/.372/434 in 267 AB with 3 HR, 44 RBI, 32 R, 0/1 SB%, and 28:26 BB:K at AAA Indianapolis(PCL).

Milwaukee will add Israel Alcantara, likely platooning him at 1B with Matt Stairs, if Sexson's injury problems force him to the DL. After Alcantara and the previously promoted Ryan Thompson, Rushford is the only other Indianapolis Indian deserving serious promotional consideration. The Brewers signed him out of the independent leagues before last season, and he certainly deserved his 2002 promotion after posting a 1.074 OPS in 259 A+ AB and .973 OPS in 187 AA AB. While he offers little power or speed, he could easily fill Milwaukee's 5th OF slot for the next few years. Unfortunately he'll only help in roto as low-risk roster filler, so ignore him for now in the majors.

Previous prospects: May: Israel Alcantara; June: Ryan Thompson.


Montreal: Terrmel Sledge, 25, 1B/OF-L
.309/.410/.459 in 320 AB with 7 HR, 35 RBI, 63 R, 10/18 SB%, and 44:63 BB:K at AA Harrisburg(EL).

Joe Vitiello will deserve a spot in Montreal as long as he keeps his .952 OPS at AAA, but both he and AA 1B options Val Pascucci and Jeff Bailey bat right-handed. As the Expos still need a left-handed platoon partner for Galaragga unless they'll either use Floyd or O'Leary at 1B, Sledge is the next best internal option. He offers marginal power and speed with above average plate discipline, so while he really could use another year in the minors, he's at least ready for AAA and might perform at a respectable level in the majors. Plus, he'll likely be an instant fan favorite for obvious reasons, although you'll want to ignore him in roto.

Previous prospects: May: Brandon Phillips; June: Joe Vitiello.


New York Mets: Jason Phillips, 25, C-R
.295/.339/.516 in 258 AB with 11 HR, 56 RBI, 29 R, 1/1 SB%, and 20:21 BB:K at AAA Norfolk(IL).

Justin Huber may have more upside but if the Mets find a way to move Mo Vaughn, they should strongly consider shifting Piazza to 1B to make room for Phillips, even if he only plays Ryan Minor to Mike's Cal. Phillips is reportedly an accomplished defender, so the Mets could keep Piazza in the lineup against teams like Florida who'd otherwise run wild against them. He's a definite upgrade over Vance Wilson and appears to have long-term starting potential, making him worth either a buck or two of FAAB upon his promotion or perhaps a greater bid if he's called up following a Vaughn trade.

Previous prospects: May: Ty Wigginton; June: Marcos Scutaro.


Philadelphia: Marlon Byrd, 24, OF-R
.302/.372/.482 in 367 AB with 10 HR, 47 RBI, 72 R, 11/12 SB%, and 35:73 BB:K at AAA Scranton/Wilkes-Barre(IL).

I have no problem with Philly leaving Byrd in the minors as they're already struggling to find PT for everyone on their current roster and Byrd's not exactly demanding a call-up. He still should be a roto force upon any promotion and should vie for the 2003 Rookie of the Year award, so look to grab him if rebuilding, and if he sees major league time this year, a few bucks of FAAB might result in a couple homers and steals.

Previous prospects: May: Johnny Estrada; June: Nick Punto.


Pittsburgh: Chris Pritchett, 32, 1B-L
.308/.395/.417 in 295 AB with 6 HR, 40 RBI, 42 R, 3/3 SB%, and 41:71 BB:K at AAA Nashville(PCL).

His career-high .498 SLG appears to be a Salt Lake-induced mirage, leaving Pritchett as a singles' hitting first baseman without much hope for further career advancement. However since he'd make an interesting platoon partner for Kevin Young or Craig Wilson, he deserves mention, unlike so many other upper level Pittsburgh minor leaguers. Unfortunately Pritchett's relatively low contact rate makes owning him an untenable proposition, so ignore him if the Pirates bring him up.

Previous prospects: May: Dave Post; June: Shawn Garrett.


San Diego: Sean Burroughs, 21, 3B/2B-L
.298/.389/.383 in 47 AB with 0 HR, 5 RBI, 7 R, 0/0 SB%, and 7:4 BB:K at AAA Portland(PCL).

Hopefully he'll develop some power by the end of the year, but the good news is that he's likely to qualify at both 3B and 2B by next April. While that doesn't help us this year where we own him, we'll have more flexibility to help a weaker position in 2003. Talk up both his injury and his likely failed Rookie of the Year campaign in an attempt to acquire him now, and if he's a free agent in your league, place a significant FAAB bid upon his recall, especially if you need BA.

Previous prospects: May: Kory DeHaan; June: Kevin Barker.


San Francisco: Juan Melo, 26, IF-S
.281/.321/.440 in 334 AB with 10 HR, 39 RBI, 43 R, 3/10 SB%, and 19:65 BB:K at AAA Fresno(PCL).

Sean McGowan's play earned him a trip all the way back to A+ San Jose, and erstwhile prospects like Cody Ransom and Tony Torcato aren't impressing anyone. After Brian Simmons, Melo has the second highest SLG of any Grizzly with more than thirty at-bats. He's only committed five errors in 93 games between 2B, SS, and 3B, so he'd be a perfectly acceptable injury replacement for the Giants. However San Francisco has a very complete and largely static bench, he wouldn't receive much playing time, and since his weak plate discipline makes him a BA risk, ignore any call-up.

Previous prospects: May: Edwards Guzman; June: Brian Simmons.


St. Louis: Jon Nunnally, 30, OF-L
.234/.336/.470 in 230 AB with 12 HR, 42 RBI, 38 R, 8/12 SB%, and 30:74 between AAA Omaha(PCL) and AAA Memphis(PCL).

The Cardinals grabbed Nunnally after the Royals released him earlier this year, and his performance should leave him at the top of any potential call-up list ahead of mediocre talent like Bill Ortega and So Taguchi. He owns both very good power and speed, and while he strikes out too much, he always maintains a good walk rate. I'd think La Russa could find many uses for Nunnally in Busch, so consider spending a buck of FAAB if he makes his way to St. Louis and you need someone with power/speed upside.

Previous prospects: May: Chad Meyers; June: Mike Coolbaugh.


Our roto prospect series will continue tomorrow with AL pitchers.


Today's Fantasy Rx: When looking to add middle relievers over the next several weeks as you reduce your dependence on riskier starters, focus on teams' upcoming schedules, paying special attention to avoiding teams headed to Colorado and Houston, as well as those facing the top AL offensive teams.


Click here to read the previous article.

Please e-mail your comments to tim@rotohelp.com.
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