Today's Fantasy Rx

I'm spending today and tomorrow on players with noticeable All-Star break splits. To qualify for consideration, a player must have 300 AB in both halves over the last five years, and show a change, positive or negative, of .025 BA and .050 OPS between the two halves, although I'm only concentrating on players with more dramatic changes. Almost forty players improved by at least that much while almost fifty declined by similar amounts.

Hitting Improvements

I'll discuss in detail the current major leaguers who meet our usual monthly standard of an improvement of at least .050 BA and .100 OPS before I list the remaining qualified players.

Carlos Guillen, SS, SEA: +.073 BA; +.190 OPS
97-01	AB	BB:K	BA/OBP/SLG
1st H	372	40:84	.220/.295/.304
2nd H	430	45:73	.293/.359/.430

02 1st	247	30:46	.287/.362/.466 

The distraction of his legal troubles make him far more likely to reverse this trend in 2002. His .12 walk rate is quite solid and I'm also pleased with his .65 BB:K, a significant improvement over his usual .48 mark at the half. Guillen's power production is the most impressive aspect of his first half numbers, but I can't bring myself to recommend him given his other problems. Wait through Guillen's slump if you need SS/MIF production unless someone offers you an acceptable deal.

Torii Hunter, OF, MIN: +.058 BA; +.155 OPS
97-01	AB	BB:K	BA/OBP/SLG
1st H	683	37:148	.236/.280/.385
2nd H	618	38:123	.294/.343/.477

02 1st	337	22:75	.306/.347/.564

7 Expecting further improvement from this first-time All-Star starter and Home Run Derby contestant appears unwise, but as the player with the second largest normal second half upswing, he could post some truly impressive numbers as he pushes to both another Gold Glove and MVP contention. However Hunter's only demonstrated mild development in his plate discipline and batting eye, so he'll remain subject to streaks until he fixes those deficiencies. I don't believe you can really trade him at this point, and you likely shouldn't buy when his value is this high, so wait on Hunter, since he's likely to at least repeat a large portion of his first half numbers over the rest of the year.

Eric Chavez, 3B, OAK: +.054 BA; +.144 OPS
97-01	AB	BB:K	BA/OBP/SLG
1st H	777	91:152	.250/.329/.441
2nd H	677	61:102	.304/.360/.554

02 1st	306	32:70	.271/.341/.542

While he's been very solid this year and we saw him included on almost every writers' All-Star team, I feel he's been generally undervalued and even perhaps underachieving, primarily due to Art Howe's Magic 8-Ball lineups. Left alone in the 3rd or 4th slot behind Miguel Tejada, I believe Chavez could put up some truly amazing numbers. Unfortunately I'm also concerned about his falling BB:K and walk rate, and while the power development certainly helps, Chavez is definitely still maturing as a hitter. Aside from these somewhat minor concerns given his overall production, look to acquire Chavez for the second half, especially if you can keep him for next year.

Gregg Zaun, C, HOU: +.050 BA; +.122 OPS
97-01	AB	BB:K	BA/OBP/SLG
1st H	395	58:57	.225/.324/.339
2nd H	498	68:70	.275/.365/.420

02 1st	118	11:20	.237/.300/.347

We expected very consistent production off the bench from Zaun this year, so hopefully he can still fulfill some of our apparently lofty prediction by October. He still possesses the skills of a potential starting catcher, but unlike past years where at least his BB:K has remained solid, his plate discipline appears somewhat lacking. If you can acquire him cheaply, he's an interesting risk that shouldn't hurt you, although don't give up anything of substance since he may stay at this level.

Daryle Ward, OF, HOU: +.057 BA; +.113 OPS
97-01	AB	BB:K	BA/OBP/SLG
1st H	330	27:85	.236/.294/.458
2nd H	300	17:57	.293/.328/.537

02 1st	270	15:52	.274/.313/.396

Hitting the first homer into the Allegheny from PNC Park announced to us that Ward's power was about to return; we're quite glad we haven't dropped him in any challenge leagues. With a surprisingly solid BA and respectable RBI total despite inconsistent playing time due to Brian L. Hunter, Ward's displayed skills that could enable him to emerge as a premiere offensive threat if he can add the expected power to a rising .81 contact rate. Definitely look to acquire him from any owner willing to sell low.

The following players qualified and have OPS increases above .100 but posted an improvement in their BA of less than .050: Richie Sexson(+.042 BA/+.158 OPS), Lenny Harris(+.048/+.153), Brook Fordyce(+.030/+.118), Benito Santiago(+.038/+.116), Carlos Beltran(+.035/+.108), Royce Clayton(+.044/+.102), and Marvin Benard(+.035/+.100).

These players qualified with BA increases of less than .050 and OPS improvements of less than .100: Homer Bush(+.037 BA/+.099 OPS), Chris Gomez(+.035/+.096), Shane Spencer(+.031/+.096), Jason Giambi(+.027/+.094), Deivi Cruz(+.031/+.091), Wilton Guerrero(+.033/+.079), Tony Womack(+.030/+.079), Gabe Kapler(+.046/+.076), Craig Paquette(+.045/+.076), Scott Spiezio(+.030/+.075), Russ Johnson(+.043/+.068), Craig Counsell(+.052/+.064), Jose Vizcaino(+.025/+.061), Richard Hidalgo(+.032/+.058), Todd Helton(+.033/+.057), Ellis Burks(+.029/.051), and Brad Ausmus(+.030/+.050).

A few players qualified but aren't currently in the majors, including Turner Ward(+.096 BA/+.319 OPS), Danny Bautista(+.064/.195), Karim Garcia(+.042/+.179), Jeff Frye(+.075/+.172), Tony Eusebio(+.039/+.091), Dave Magadan(+.028/+.081), Tim Bogar(+.042/+.076), Luis Sojo(+.027/+.067), Eric Davis(+.041/+.058), and Adrian Brown(+.044/+.051).

Hitting Declines

I'll discuss in detail the current major leaguers who meet our usual monthly standard of a decline of at least .050 BA and .100 OPS before I list the remaining qualified players.

Lance Berkman, OF, HOU: -.059 BA; -.235 OPS
97-01	AB	BB:K	BA/OBP/SLG
1st H	482	75:100	.342/.437/.672
2nd H	541	85:115	.283/.379/.495

02 1st	310	63:55	.294/.414/.639

Houston might see the rather extreme reversals of a few players' offensive numbers if historical trends continue. We've seen reports that Berkman just wore down in past seasons, and that he now understands the necessity of conditioning to maintain his batting ability throughout the entire season. While I don't quite subscribe to that theory in detail, the combination of developing plate discipline, improved contact rate, and the lowest G-F of his career allows me to suggest you wait to see if Berkman can finally maintain a torrid first half until the end of the season.

Todd Hundley, C, CHC: -.053 BA; -.154 OPS
97-01	AB	BB:K    BA/OBP/SLG
1st H	762	116:209 .260/.358/.522
2nd H	700	97:233  .207/.307/.419

02 1st	132	14:46   .189/.270/.371

We've been among Hundley's biggest supporters for a long-time, mainly because he was born in my home town and played in the high school district. In case you don't know, Hundley's mom died immediately prior to last season, and after signing a huge deal to essentially take his dad's place behind the plate at Wrigley, Manager's Pet Joe Girardi started on Opening Day. Immediately descending into a swarm of injuries and inconsistent playing time, Hundley's been soundly reviled by practically every columnist and talk show host in town, while we still believe he'll post a respectable .750-.800 OPS, albeit with only around a .300 OBP, if allowed to play nearly every day for the remainder of the season. Similar to Zaun, I'm going to advise a cautious acquire him cheaply since Hundley's rested for much of the past season and might finally combine with the other veteran position players to produce some offense for new manager Bruce Kimm.

Desi Relaford, IF, SEA: -.068 BA; -.153 OPS
97-01	AB	BB:K	BA/OBP/SLG
1st H	809	94:156	.272/.360/.389
2nd H	645	65:107	.214/.289/.307

02 1st	166	24:24	.271/.366/.331

We return to Seattle's infield to find another relatively solid performer, who despite an unfavorable statistical trend, doesn't look set for a drastic drop in the second half. The positive sign here is the continued improvement in both walk rate and BB:K, but he's displaying little power and not stealing often. While you should upgrade your MIF if possible, I see nothing wrong with a decision to wait in the hope that he'll provide some quantitative help and even maybe slightly boost your BA.

Adam Kennedy, 2B, ANA: -.052 BA; -.138 OPS
97-01	AB	BB:K	BA/OBP/SLG
1st H	595	39:72	.292/.341/.424
2nd H	583	19:80	.240/.270/.357

02 1st	248	10:36	.298/.335/.440

The difference between Kennedy's 2002 averages and his normal 1st half is all of .028, and both his BB:K and walk rate are significantly lower his usual midway mark. He could lose his job next season if Amezaga pushes Eckstein to second base, and unless you're absolutely desperate for steals, I see no reason to keep Kennedy considering the extremely high likelihood of a second half slump. Deal him to anyone needing 2B/MIF help for almost any comparable player.

Joe McEwing, UT, NYM: -.061 BA; -.131 OPS
97-01	AB	BB:K	BA/OBP/SLG
1st H	529	38:94	.295/.345/.440
2nd H	440	26:82	.234/.293/.361

02 1st	112	15:37	.188/.227/.313

He recently broke an 0-for-33 skid, a slump that leaves him little hope for even finishing the year with an OPS over .600 if his normal second-half downturn forces him to maintain his poor first-half level. Little Mac's playing time will remain inconsistent even if he's able to avoid a demotion, so if you're using him in almost any league, deal or cut him at your first convenience in favor of someone with both stronger skills and more upside, a relatively easy combination to find even in the deepest of leagues.

Carl Everett, OF, TEX: -.053 BA; -.106 OPS
97-01	AB	BB:K    BA/OBP/SLG
1st H	1364	122:309 .308/.373/.526
2nd H	915	83:206  .255/.325/.468

02 1st	166	10:35   .193/239/.331

I expect Mount Carl will erupt for one more very roto-friendly season, but he certainly won't win that Comeback Player of the Year award in 2002. He's displayed scant offensive prowess and few relevant skills at the plate, so if anyone in your league believes he can rebound this season, deal Everett, even at the necessary discount to pick up even a mildly more useful player who'll remain in the lineup.

Jerry Hairston, Jr., 2B, BAL: -.053 BA; -.106 OPS
97-01	AB	BB:K	BA/OBP/SLG
1st H	359	25:44	.276/.331/.407
2nd H	535	51:76	.221/.307/.329

02 1st	175	11:27	.234/.292/.309

Jerry's kid has successfully fended off potential usurper Brian Roberts yet again, but he'll need to rapidly develop to retain his starting job even into next season. Unfortunately, with Hairston providing even less offense in the first half than he normally manages in the second half, second base might be a good spot for Melvin Mora to settle considering the playing time crunch in the outfield. Talk up the Brian Roberts' demotion as you attempt to deal Hairston to anyone needing speed.

The following players qualified and have OPS decreases above .100 but posted an decline in their BA of less than .050: David Delucci(-.037 BA/-.175 OPS), Tyler Houston(-.047/-.162), David Ortiz(-.036/-.145), Travis Lee(-.134/-.036), Darin Erstad(-.042/-.131), Wil Cordero(-.031/-.130), Ben Davis(-.047/-.116), Melvin Mora(-.027/-.110), Sandy Alomar, Jr.(-.049/-.107), Jose Hernandez(-.027/-.107), Jose Vidro(-.033/-.106), Randy Velarde(-.040/-.103), Luis Gonzalez(-.048/-.102), and Brian Daubach(-.033/-.100).

These players qualified with BA decreases of less than .050 and OPS declines of less than .100: Carlos Lee(-.028 BA/-.097 OPS), Marty Cordova(-.057/-.096), Rusty Greer(-.035/-.094), Brian Jordan(-.029/-.088), Michael Tucker(-.042/-.087), Mike Sweeney(-.033/-.086), Matt Lawton(-.038/-.085), Ben Molina(-.027/-.081), Eric Owens(-.030/-.079), Damian Jackson(-.028/-.076), Einar Diaz(-.031/-.074), Carlos Febles(-.028/-.071), Jim Edmonds(-.030/-.069), Ron Belliard(-.031/-.067), Greg Vaughn(-.028/-.061), Kevin Millar(-.035/-.060), Rich Aurilia(-.030/-.055), and Luis Alicea(-.030/-.050).

A few players qualified but aren't currently in the majors, including Chad Krueter(-.060 BA/-.183 OPS), Ruben Rivera(-.062/-.169), Ed Sprague(-.033/-.166), Raul Casanova(-.039/-.130), F.P. Santangelo(-.060/-.129), Henry Rodriguez(-.026/-.095), Joe Oliver(-.036/-.087), and Chad Allen(-.038/-.084).

Today's Fantasy Rx: Other than the selected players discussed above, a few specific players from the larger lists at the end of each section require further mention. Look to acquire the following players whose values should begin increasing: Royce Clayton, Marvin Benard, Gabe Kapler, Craig Paquette, and Richard Hidalgo. Also, look to deal the following players whose values may have plateaued: Tyler Houston, Darin Erstad, Jose Hernandez, Luis Gonzalez, and Carlos Febles.