Today's Fantasy Rx

Anaheim: Lou Pote, RH Reliever
0-1 on 25:21 K:BB in 40.2 IP over 26 G with 26 H, 4 HR, and 65-21 G-F; 2.88 ERA.

Pote's been quite successful over the last few years with solid command but only decent strikeout rates. Now his K:BB(1.2 '02; 1.9 career) and K/9(5.5 '02; 6.7 career) are vanishing while the Anaheim defense has propelled Pote to a 2.88 ERA on the strength of a fantastic H/9(5.8 '02; 8.2 career). As he shows no ability to maintain the low hit rate, expect his ERA to head north due to the poor command, although fortunately we shouldn't expect a rise in homers with constant HR/9(.9 '02; .9 career) and G-F(2.10 '02; 2.28 career) ratios. Look to deal Pote before his likely WHIP problems cause additional ERA troubles.

May Overachiever: Dennis Cook, LH Reliever
Old stats: 1-0 on 6:5 K:BB in 15.1 IP over 18 G with 6 H, 0 HR, and a 1.17 ERA.
Recommendation: deal.
Stats since recommendation: 0-1 on 6:3 K:BB in 6 IP over 12 G with 11 H, 1 HR, and a 7.50 ERA.

Previous Overachievers: April: Ramon Ortiz, RH Starter

Baltimore: Travis Driskill, RH Starter
5-0 on 27:17 K:BB in 48.2 IP over 6 GS(11G) with 48 H, 8 HR, and 71-56 G-F; 3.51 ERA.

We knew Driskill could pitch in the majors after posting MLEs that included a 2.4 K:BB and acceptable 5.3 K/9 last year, but we never expected he'd find the opportunity to achieve this level of success; unfortunately his skills appear quite weak this season. A 45251 5-start PQS log depicts both his upside and expected inconsistency. His skill ratios, including a 1.6 K:BB, 5.0 K/9, 8.8 H/9, 1.5 HR/9, and 1.27 G-F, range from decent to poor, and don't suggest he'll continue to hold an ERA below 4.00. You could probably safely keep him active for another few starts, although if anyone's interested in a deal, I don't believe his value will climb much higher.

May Overachiever: Willis Roberts, RH Reliever
Old stats: 2-1 on 16:11 K:BB in 31 IP over 24 G with 28 H, 3 HR, and a 2.03 ERA.
Recommendation: deal.
Stats since recommendation: 2-1 on 6:7 K:BB in 10.2 IP over 11 G with 7 H, 0 HR, and a .84 ERA.

Previous Overachievers: April: Scott Erickson, RH Starter

Boston: Derek Lowe, RH Starter
11-3 on 65:24 K:BB in 104.1 IP over 15 GS with 68 H, 3 HR, and 204-55 G-F; 2.16 ERA.

He's the most impressive starter in the American League this year even without considering his no-hitter. A 34254 5-start PQS log suggests that even his bad outings still have a respectable skills' foundation. Lowe has maintained his K:BB(2.7 '02; 2.6 career) in spite of the decreased K/9(5.6 '02; 6.7 career) expected of any converted reliever. A low HR/9(.3 '02; .6 career), supported by a consistently fantastic G-F(3.71 '02; 3.34 career), keeps his ERA low, but his unbelievable H/9(5.9 '02; 8.3 career) insures an ERA around 2.00; this low hit rate is largely attributable to the best defense in the majors, and should edge upward at least slightly. Our one severe concern about Lowe, and the primary reason we expected Danys Baez to out-perform him, is that he's already only 19.1 IP short of his career high. Lowe is at severe risk for burnout in the second half, especially if Boston doesn't solve their problems in middle relief (although acquiring Alan Embree definitely helps). You should probably wait and hope he can maintain his pace, since I don't know if you'd receive fair value in trade because owners also shouldn't overpay for someone whose injury risk increases with every inning he pitches.

May Overachiever: Rolando Arrojo, RH Swingman
Old stats: 3-1 on 15:12 K:BB in 34.1 IP over 15 G with 31 H, 1 HR, and a 3.93 ERA.
Recommendation: deal.
Stats since recommendation: 1-1 on 25:8 K:BB in 27.1 IP over 5 GS with 26 H, 2 HR, and a 3.41 ERA.

Previous Overachievers: April: Darren Oliver, LH Starter

Chicago White Sox: Mark Buehrle, LH Starter
11-5 on 66:35 K:BB in 116 IP over 17 GS with 104 H, 11 HR, and 168-113 G-F; 3.18 ERA.

Buehrle is receiving the best run support in the majors this year, and while his current 5-start 34242 PQS log shows his lack of dominance, it also shows his lack of severe problems; he can pitch effectively to a great extent without striking out many batters. His borderline K:BB(1.9 '02; 2.4 career) and weak K/9(5.1 '02; 5.4 career) preclude a strong recommendation in his favor, but there's also little change in his H/9(8.1 '02; 8.0 career) or HR/9(.9 '02; 1.0 career), and his G-F(1.49 '02; 1.20 career) even indicates a potentially improving homer rate. I don't expect him to maintain an ERA below 3.50 unless he develops more command, although he'll remain one of the top roto pitchers due to his overall effectiveness; wait for the additional wins and helpful qualitative numbers unless you can afford to trade him to upgrade elsewhere.

May Overachiever: Bobby Howry, RH Reliever
Old stats: 0-0 on 11:10 K:BB in 23.1 IP over 21 G with 23 H, 3 HR, and a 3.86 ERA.
Recommendation: deal.
Stats since recommendation: 0-1 on 8:2 K:BB in 11.1 IP over 12 G with 9 H, 0 HR, and a 3.18 ERA.

Previous Overachievers: April: Gary Glover, RH Setup

Cleveland: Ryan Drese, RH Starter
7-5 on 62:35 K:BB in 80.2 IP over 14 GS with 94 H, 7 HR, and 110-89 G-F; 5.47 ERA.

Several significantly better pitchers don't own records near Drese's 7-5, but we like the upside suggested by his current 5-start 40433 PQS log. His K:BB(1.8 '02; 1.6 career) and K/9(7.0 '02; 5.9 career) show progress, and his HR/9(.8 '02; .5 '01) have stayed respectable despite a G-F(1.24 '02; 2.64 '01) that dropped in half this year. Given that most of these skills appear acceptable, a higher H/9(10.5 '02; 7.9 '01) caused by the worst defense in the majors has forced up his ERA. Drese remains very high-risk for this year, although definitely look to acquire him if rebuilding.

May Overachiever: Bartolo Colon, RH Starter
Old stats: 6-3 on 53:21 K:BB in 80 IP over 11 GS with 65 H, 9 HR, and a 2.48 ERA.
Recommendation: acquire.
Stats since recommendation: 4-1 on 22:10 K:BB in 36.1 IP over 5 GS with 39 H, 2 HR, and a 2.72 ERA.

Previous Overachievers: April: Paul Shuey, RH Relief

Detroit: Mike Maroth, LH Starter
1-1 on 6:7 K:BB in 23.1 IP over 4 GS with 25 H, 1 HR, and 44-23 G-F; 3.86 ERA.

Focus on his 3320 5-start PQS log when considering a trade for this purported prospect. His 9.6 H/9 is acceptable, and a 1.91 G-F supports an excellent .4 HR/9. However practically never look to acquire anyone with a .9 K:BB or 2.3 K/9. He finally demonstrated command in his second year at AAA Toledo this season with a 8-1 record on 51:22 K:BB in 73.1 IP over 11 GS with 53 H, 7 HR, and a 2.82 ERA; unfortunately his career minor league skill averages include a 1.6 K:BB and 5.2 K/9. Without a history of success, Detroit should have left him at AAA for close to two-dozen starts at minimum. You can gamble on him if rebuilding, but deal him now if you're a contender.

May Overachiever: Juan Acevedo, RH Closer
Old stats: 6 Saves on 18:8 K:BB in 27.1 IP over 19 G with 19 H, 1 HR, and a 3.29 ERA.
Recommendation: wait.
Stats since recommendation: 5 Saves on 11:3 K:BB in 13.1 IP over 11 G with 15 H, 0 HR, and a 3.38 ERA.

Previous Overachievers: April: Steve Sparks, RH Starter

Kansas City: Miguel Ascencio, RH Swingman
1-1 on 15:20 K:BB in 41 IP over 15G(5GS) with 36 H, 9 HR, and 60-49 G-F; 5.27 ERA.

A 21-year-old Rule 5 pick, Ascencio pitched at A+ Clearwater in the Florida State League in 2001, posting a 12-5 record on 123:70 K:BB in 155 IP over 21GS(28G) with 124 H and a 2.84 ERA. He only managed a 1.8 K:BB in A-ball, his career-best command mark, and yet the Royals intend to leave him on the roster all season and Baseball America rated him their 6th best prospect over nearly major-league ready talents (with great command) like Ryan Bukvich and Jeremy Affeldt. A 33331 5-start PQS log shows that he has the ability to remain in the game for a few innings while a league-average defense keeps his hit rate to 7.9 H/9. Along with generally only allowing a homer per game, a 2.0 HR/9, largely accumulated from the bullpen, seems high considering his decent 1.22 G-F. However like Maroth, a dreadful .8 K:BB and 3.3 K/9 keep him off our rosters; deal Ascencio even if rebuilding since he's likely two years away from contributing positively or regularly to a roto team.

May Overachiever: Jeremy Affeldt, LH Starter
Old stats: 1-1 on 34:16 K:BB in 36 IP over 11 G(4GS) with 35 H, 2 HR, and a 2.75 ERA.
Recommendation: acquire.
Stats since recommendation: 0-3 on 9:9 K:BB in 14.1 IP over 3 GS with 20 H, 2 HR, and a 8.79 ERA before hitting the DL with blister problems.

Previous Overachievers: April: Paul Byrd, RH Starter

Minnesota: LaTroy Hawkins, RH Reliever
3-0 on 41:7 K:BB in 48.2 IP over 33 G with 34 H, 4 HR, and 67-44 G-F; 1.66 ERA.

Hawkins continues a comeback of Halladayian proportions, and after losing the closer's job around a year ago, he's reinvented himself into the current fifth best reliever in the league. All his skills are superior to his career averages, including an amazing K:BB(5.9 '02; 1.6 career) approaching four times his normal mark. His K/9(7.6 '02; 5.5 career) development allows him to strand more runners, although his H/9(6.3 '02; 10.9 career) will likely increase unless Minnesota's defense improves from his current mediocrity. Hawkins' G-F(1.52 '02; 1.20 career) also supports his dropping HR/9(.7 '02; 1.3 career), so while he likely won't maintain these skills, I expect him to remain a valuable reliever; wait until you see his skills slip before making a change to your lineup.

May Overachiever: Mike Jackson, RH Aging Former Closer
Old stats: 2-1 on 11:5 K:BB in 20.1 IP over 22 G with 15 H, 0 HR, and a .88 ERA.
Recommendation: deal.
Stats since recommendation: 0-1 on 5:6 K:BB in 12 IP over 12 G with 12 H, 1 HR, and a 3.75 ERA.

Previous Overachievers: April: J.C. Romero, LH Reliever

New York Yankees: David Wells, LH Starter
7-5 on 67:29 K:BB in 99.2 IP over 15 GS with 95 H, 7 HR, and 146-115 G-F; 3.61 ERA.

Wells' success must confound those who believed that his problems last season signaled the pending completion of his career; a sterling 55345 current 5-start PQS log shows the extent of his comeback. His K:BB(2.3 '02; 2.9 career) and K/9(6.1 '02; 6.1 career) indicate he's no longer a dominant pitcher, but with an assist from the third best defense in the league, his H/9(8.6 '02; 9.2 career) also keeps his WHIP low. He's reached his current G-F(1.27 '02; 1.12 career) three times since 1989, a level that supports his impressive HR/9(.6 '01; 1.0 career). While Wells' future is difficult to predict, remain willing to acquire him if you need starting pitching help this season.

May Overachiever: Ted Lilly, LH Swingman
Old stats: 2-4 on 42:13 K:BB in 50 IP over 10 G(7 GS) with 31 H, 5 HR, and a 2.88 ERA.
Recommendation: acquire.
Stats since recommendation: 1-1 on 15:8 K:BB in 22.2 IP over 3 GS(5G) with 19 H, 3 HR, and a 3.18 ERA.

Previous Overachievers: April: Orlando Hernandez, RH Starter

Oakland: Aaron Harang, RH Starter
3-2 on 33:19 K:BB in 35.2 IP over 6 GS with 25 H, 2 HR, and 37-46 G-F; 2.02 ERA.

He's pitching effectively in the majors after barely assembling impressive stats in AA last season. Harang's current 43055 5-start PQS log demonstrates his potential, especially considering he improved on the road in his second start against the Mariners after facing them at home. I'm impressed by the evolution of a pitcher who only managed a 2.6 K:BB and 5.6 K/9 MLE stats into a major leaguer with an almost acceptable 1.7 K:BB and very solid 8.3 K/9. Aside from his mild control problems, we unfortunately can expect his 6.3 H/9 to increase, and a .80 G-F indicates a likely rise of his .5 HR/9. I see nothing wrong with a decision to wait since he'll continue to help most roto teams, but he'll be lucky to finish with an ERA below 4.00.

May Overachiever: Mike Venafro, LH Reliever
Old stats: 1-1 on 8:7 K:BB in 16 IP over 17 G with 16 H, 1 HR, and a 3.38 ERA.
Recommendation: deal.
Stats since recommendation: 1-0 on 2:4 K:BB in 14 IP over 15 G with 15 H, 2 HR, and a 3.21 ERA.

Previous Overachievers: April: Billy Koch, RH Closer

Seattle: John Halama, LH Swingman
2-2 on 37:15 K:BB in 50 IP over 16 G(4GS) with 45 H, 3 HR, and 72-51 G-F; 2.52 ERA.

Halama's seen amazing skill development this season even though he's usually displayed solid command in the past. I haven't observed many clear-cut career years where nearly all a pitcher's skills, including his K:BB(2.5 '02; 1.8 career), K/9(6.7 '02; 5.0 career), H/9(8.1 '02; 10.2 career), and G-F(1.41 '02; 1.27 career) are the best marks of his major league career. The only skill not in line with the rest is a perfectly solid HR/9(.5 '02; 1.0 career); when he pitched for Houston in the Astrodome in 1998, he didn't allow a single homer in 32.1 IP over six starts. Hopefully the Mariners will leave Halama in relief considering his success, and he'll help your qualitative numbers if you wish to acquire him.

May Overachiever: Kazuhiro Sasaki, RH Closer
Old stats: 10 Saves on 25:5 K:BB in 18.2 IP over 18 G with 10 H, 0 HR, and a 0.00 ERA.
Recommendation: acquire.
Stats since recommendation: 8 Saves on 12:2 K:BB in 9.1 IP over 10 G with 7 H, 0 HR, and a .96 ERA.

Previous Overachievers: April: Shigetoshi Hasegawa, RH Reliever

Tampa Bay: Travis Harper, RH Swingman
2-3 on 26:9 K:BB in 36.2 IP over 14 G(3GS) with 33 H, 6 HR, and 45-51 G-F; 3.44 ERA.

Harper demonstrated definite development in the minors last season but continues to suffer from homer problems; small gains in his G-F(.88 '02; .77 career) keep his HR/9(1.5 '02; 2.3 career) at respectable levels, but he'll need to fix this deficiency at some point in his career. Fortunately his wonderful progress in K:BB(2.9 '02; .9 career) and K/9(6.4 '02; 3.7 career) have allowed him to flourish in the Devil Ray pen, and even with Tampa's defensive difficulties, he's held his H/9(8.1 '02; 10.4 career) at reasonable levels. Harper is an interesting, albeit high-risk, target to acquire if you want to gamble on potential saves and hopefully helpful qualitative numbers.

May Overachiever: Steve Kent, LH Reliever
Old stats: 0-1 on 16:13 K:BB in 23.2 IP over 14 G with 20 H, 1 HR, and a 3.04 ERA.
Recommendation: deal.
Stats since recommendation: 0-1 on 4:8 K:BB in 9.2 IP over 6 G with 16 H, 2 HR, and a 10.24 ERA.

Previous Overachievers: April: Paul Wilson, RH Starter

Texas: Hideki Irabu, RH Reliever
3-7 and 14 Saves on 26:13 K:BB in 42 IP over 33 G(2GS) with 46 H, 11 HR, and 70-43 G-F; 5.79 ERA.

While no one appears to know his current role in the Rangers' bullpen, Irabu has easily compiled one of the most surprising stat lines of the year. Other than his decreasing dominance, his K:BB(2.0 '02; 2.3 career), K/9(5.6 '02; 7.1 career), and H/9(9.9 '02; 9.6 career) ratios all look fairly solid. His extremely high ERA appears largely due to the second-worst HR/9(2.4 '02; 1.6 career) of his career, a very surprising development considering he's also posting the best G-F(1.63 '02; .99 career) of his major league career. If you're interested in a high-risk, high-reward pitcher, Irabu is someone to acquire since I don't expect his value can drop much further.

May Overachiever: Ismael Valdes, RH Starter
Old stats: 3-5 on 27:17 K:BB in 54 IP over 9 GS with 50 H, 5 HR, and a 3.83 ERA.
Recommendation: wait.
Stats since recommendation: 2-1 on 18:6 K:BB in 39.1 IP over 6 GS with 38 H, 3 HR, and a 4.12 ERA.

Previous Overachievers: April: Kenny Rogers, LH Starter

Toronto: Scott Cassidy, RH Reliever
0-1 on 27:18 K:BB in 33.2 IP over 27 G with 20 H, 4 HR, and 30-46 G-F; 4.54 ERA.

While his 7.2 K/9 demonstrates better dominance than his MLEs of the last two years, a 1.5 K:BB suggests troubling control problems. However his 5.3 H/9 seems too low considering Toronto's defensive problems, and a .65 G-F indicates a likely rise of his 1.1 HR/9. I like Cassidy's long-term potential in middle relief but I don't expect him to provide much help for your teams this year; deal him when you have a chance to upgrade.

May Overachiever: Pete Walker, RH Swingman
Old stats: 0-0 on 9:6 K:BB in 16.1 IP over 12 G(1GS) with 15 H, 2 HR, and a 2.70 ERA.
Recommendation: deal.
Stats since recommendation: 3-0 on 15:7 K:BB in 22.1 IP over 8 G(2GS) with 18 H, 1 HR, and a 2.01 ERA.

Previous Overachievers: April: Corey Thurman, RH Reliever

Today's Fantasy Rx: TNT presents the Charles Barkley Hours tonight, also sometimes known as the NBA Draft. Watch if you're interested, or feel free to ignore it as the three-month draft season wraps up after beginning with the NFL in April and continuing through MLB and last weekend's NHL draft.

Two days left for All-Star voting; here's our recommended ballot if you'd like our advice. Click here to vote.

	
POS	AL			NL
1B	J. Giambi		T. Helton
2B	A. Soriano		J. Vidro
3B	S. Hillenbrand		M. Lowell
SS	A. Rodriguez		J. Hernandez
C	J. Posada		M. Piazza
OF	I. Suzuki		B. Bonds
OF	M. Ramirez		S. Sosa
OF	T. Hunter		V. Guerrero