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June 25th 2002 |
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Your Daily Fantasy Rx |
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by Tim Polko In looking over some of my recent articles, I apparently never described my system of evaluation. I'll include this with future columns on underachievers, overachievers, and month-to-month trends. Acquire: This player's current perceived value is likely less than his future value, particularly in the next several weeks. Wait: For overachievers, hold onto the player for at least a few more weeks since his stats should exceed his current value. For underachievers, keep them since they should at least perform above their perceived value at this time. Deal: If you find an acceptable offer, trade these players since their value is likely peaking; while they may return to this level in a couple of months, their perceived value likely won't increase.
Arizona: Quinton McCracken, OF Consistent marks in #P/PA(3.84 '02; 3.85 career) and contact rate(.81 '02; .81 career) show some promise, but a dropping BB:K(.35 '02; .50 career) and walk rate(.06 '02; .09 career) suggest he'll be lucky to keep his OPS over .800 for the season, a goal he's never achieved. A career-best G-F(1.00 '02; 1.73 career) by .54 over his 1998 season indicates his power development might continue, but his BA will likely settle a little under .300. Since you probably don't want to see the box scores of someone likely to drag a .389 BA down to .289, deal McCracken while his value is high and he's playing every day.
May Overachiever: Damian Miller, C Previous Overachievers: April: Junior Spivey, 2B
Franco owns a fairly respectable history as a pinch-hitter but nothing in his skills indicates he can maintain anything approaching this level of production. Most of his hitting skills, including his BB:K(.43 '02; .82 career), walk rate(.09 '02; .13 career), #P/PA(3.44 '02; 3.65 career), contact rate(.79 '02; .84 career), and G-F(1.75 '02; 1.52 career), are between slightly and significantly divergent from even the levels that support his .721 career OPS. Deal Franco before his stats begin heading down.
May Overachiever: Mark DeRosa, Smited Usurping IF Previous Overachievers: April: Andruw Jones, OF
He's already matched our home run expectation in barely half the at-bats we projected, although his contact rate(.57 '02; .64 career) is south of abysmal. His BB:K(.42 '02; .38 career) is therefore fairly weak despite an excellent walk rate(.18 '02; .14 career), superb #P/PA(4.26 '02; 4.27 career), and a G-F(.79 '02; 1.09 career) suggesting an elevated power upside. A smart organization would leave him at 2B, or at least 3B for the Cubs, and watch him post a yearly .800+ OPS until a prospect is ready. Bellhorn's part-time action will still help your team, so look to acquire him if you can afford the BA hit to gain power and speed.
May Overachiever: Sammy Sosa, OF Previous Overachievers: April: Corey Patterson, OF
With only 72 games above A-ball as the Reds didn't even own an A+ team, Kearns arguably still belongs no higher than AA, but Griffey's latest DL trip returns him to a starting job. With his impressive performance over the last third of this season, he's clearly demonstrated that he's prepared for a major league job, so he'll need to learn at the majors to develop his skills. Fortunately he already excels in some areas with a solid .15 walk rate and excellent 4.01 #P/PA. A .72 contact rate drags down his plate discipline to .54 BB:K, and his immediate power potential is somewhat limited by a 1.47 G-F. So while you shouldn't trade for him if you're contending only for this year unless he's the only available power hitter, definitely seek to acquire him if rebuilding.
May Overachiever: Corky Miller, C Previous Overachievers: April: Juan Encarnacion, OF
His skills remain generally poor, but Hollandsworth has made small gains in BB:K(.39 '02; .37 career) and walk rate(.09 '02; .08 career) with only a slightly lower contact rate(.77 '02; .78 career). Unfortunately his dropping #P/PA(3.62 '02; 3.71 career), career-worst G-F(2.00 '02; 1.56 career), approaching free agency, and the development of Jack Cust and potentially Ben Petrick leave him as purely a short-term power option. Don't expect significant production when he leaves Coors, and given his already weak skills' set, look to deal him now before his value decreases.
May Overachiever: Bobby Estalella, C Previous Overachievers: April: Juan Uribe, SS
A thirty-five game hitting streak defines a reasonable standard for overachievement, and the resulting BA boost will likely dissipate by the end of the year. The streak also covers his declining skills, as he's seen erosion in his BB:K(1.6 '02; 2.1 career), walk rate(.14 '02; .18 career), and contact rate(.91 '02; .92 career), along with a career-low #P/PA(3.83 '02; 4.09 career). I'm pleased with his G-F(3.75 '02; 4.30 career) returning closer to normal after a 2.59 mark last season, easily the most power-happy year of his career; Castillo lacks true extra-base power and produces at a higher level when featuring his speed. With the streak ended, you should probably wait on any action if you're even slightly weak in steals, since while his value has started falling, he's still one of the top second baseman in the majors.
May Overachiever: Eric Owens, OF Previous Overachievers: April: Mike Lowell, 3B
The struggles of rookies on the left side of the infield propelled Vizcaino into a larger role than anticipated, and he's been a nicely complimentary roto player with a good BA, nearly a dozen RBI, and almost twenty runs. Vizcaino's never finished a season with a BA over .300, and an unimpressive BB:K(.60 '02; .51 career) and walk rate(.06 '02; .07 career), along with a very low #P/PA(3.39 '02; 3.45 career), indicate he lacks the plate discipline to sustain this average. He also won't succeed in maintaining either his career-high OBP or SLG since his contact rate(.90 '02; .86 career) should regress while his career-best G-F(1.22 '02; 2.00 career) should trend upwards, causing him to lose his small power gains. Vizcaino is not someone you want on your team, so look to deal him if possible.
May Overachiever: Lance Berkman, OF Previous Overachievers: April: Daryle Ward, OF
While we expected minute improvement in his production due to his growing major league experience and reduced role, he lacks the skills to maintain his pace in nearly any category. Cora's already weak skill ratios have plummeted this year, including terrible marks in BB:K(.13 '02; .44 career), walk rate(.03 '02; .07 career), and contact rate(.79 '02; .85 career). His #P/PA(3.76 '02; 3.65 career) indicated some plate discipline at times in the past, but his G-F(1.45 '02; 1.50 career) also doesn't offer much promise in the near future. If an owner offers anything for Cora, deal him now since he doesn't belong starting for your team or the Dodgers.
May Overachiever: Dave Roberts, OF Previous Overachievers: April: Eric Karros, 1B
Houston is still riding a blazing hot streak, upping both his real and roto value to that of the top few third baseman in the game. We know he can't continue to post a .949 OPS, although his contact rate(.85 '02; .78 career) and G-F(1.17 '02; 1.33 career) improvement suggest he'll at least keep starting in Milwaukee; a slight bump in BB:K(.33 '02; .30 career) also is a good sign. I'm worried about his declining walk rate(.05 '02; .07 career) and the second worst #P/PA(3.06 '02; 3.44 career) of his career, so while there's no problem in riding out a streak from an inexpensive player, you should at least explore a deal to upgrade the position.
May Overachiever: Alex Sanchez, OF Previous Overachievers: April: Jose Hernandez, SS
O'Leary's capable of maintaining his quantitative production but his OPS should fall as he finishes closer his .278 career BA. Neither his BB:K(.43 '02; .49 career) or walk rate(.09 '02; .08 career) support better plate discipline, and a steady #P/PA(3.62 '01; 3.61 career) and slipping contact rate(.80 '02; .84 career) suggest a generally decreased BA. A higher G-F(1.58 '02; 1.29 career) also indicates lower power numbers, so you should look to deal O'Leary now before his production inevitably drops.
May Overachiever: Jose Vidro, 2B Previous Overachievers: April: Michael Barrett, C
He's within three RBI of our expectations for the season, giving him marginally more value as your second potential $1 catcher, but with Jason Phillips continuing to develop at AAA Norfolk, Wilson won't be a Met for too much longer. While we don't have much data on Wilson's skills since his 73 at-bats exceed his previous MLB total by a dozen, his BB:K(.08 '02; .11 career) and walk rate(.01 '02; .03 career) are barely above zero, and his #P/PA(3.81 '02; 4.14 career) is already fading from last year's excellent mark. A rising contact rate(.84 '02; .70 career) helps offset the lack of plate discipline, but with his G-F(1.38 '02; 1.46 career) indicating only minute power development, Wilson's only valuable if he plays regularly. Definitely deal him if anyone's interested or you have the opportunity to upgrade.
May Overachiever: Timo Perez, OF Previous Overachievers: April: Edgardo Alfonzo, 3B
Pratt's posted an .800+ OPS three times in his career, so while he won't maintain his current level, he's likely to remain a moderately valuable backup or second catcher, especially in even moderately deep NL-only leagues. We've seen little change in his #P/PA(4.08 '02; 4.04 career), contact rate(.72 '02; .73 career), or G-F(1.13 '02; 1.16 career), but we welcome the improvement in his BB:K(.71 '02; .45 career) and now excellent walk rate(.20 '02; .12 career). Unless you can definitively upgrade his slot, you should probably wait on Pratt since he'll still offer helpful production, albeit at a likely lower level.
May Overachiever: Pat Burrell, OF Previous Overachievers: April: Jason Michaels, OF
Giles' Runs and RBI are down due to his mostly dreadful supporting cast, but aside from slight decreases in #P/PA(3.67 '02; 3.75 career) and contact rate(.85 '02; .86 career), he's managed to increase his supporting skills this year. His BB:K(1.31 '02; 1.28 career) and walk rate(.20 '02; .18 career) are up, and he's now at the lowest G-F(.67 '02; .88 career) of his career. Despite this improvement, I'm more impressed by his early show of speed, and since he normally holds his steals' pace over the second half, he could finish with around two-dozen steals this year. Giles is a certified five-category contributor and definitely someone to acquire if you need offense.
May Overachiever: Rob Mackowiak, UT Previous Overachievers: April: Jack Wilson, SS
Cruz took advantage of the very slow starts of Ramon Vazquez and D'Angelo Jimenez, along with the injuries to Sean Burroughs and Phil Nevin, to establish himself in the San Diego starting lineup. His performance is only slightly below our expectations, but we thought that he'd compile these numbers over the entire season. We've seen some development in plate discipline, as evidenced by gains in BB:K(.46 '02; .29 career), walk rate(.05 '02; .03 career), and #P/PA(3.46 '02; 3.21 career); he's maintained a respectable contact rate(.88 '02; .89 career) and still shows some growth in his G-F(1.33 '02; 1.48 career). However his skills are still generally shallow, so if anyone's interested, there's no reason not to deal him.
May Overachiever: Ryan Klesko, 1B/OF Previous Overachievers: April: Sean Burroughs, 3B
With an OPS .164 above nominal starter Tsuyoshi Shinjo, we fail to understand why Dusty Baker keeps Benard on the bench despite his obvious upside at least against right-handers. However, his BA is too high considering his falling contact rate(.79 '02; .83 career), and regression from previously only acceptable marks in BB:K(.32 '02; .59 career) and walk rate(.07 '02; .10 career) suggests potential second-half problems. Benard's #P/PA(3.78 '02; 3.78 career) remains consistent and a career-best G-F(1.14 '02; 1.48 career) also points to some power development. He can still produce if given the opportunity, so wait to see if he'll find a larger role since he's already producing from the bench.
May Overachiever: Benito Santiago, C Previous Overachievers: April: David Bell, 3B
No one except perhaps Fred Lynn ever offered a rookie year quite like Pujols, and players don't generally jump from A-ball to a consistently excellent level of play. He again deserves serious consideration for this year's All-Star team, and while he's down from last year's pace, Pujols retains significant value, especially with his position flexibility. Slight changes in #P/PA(3.92 '02; 4.02 '01) and G-F(1.18 '02; 1.09 '01) suggest a mild sophomore slump, but his great gain in BB:K(1.19 '02; .74 '01), along with improving walk rate(.14 '02; .12 '01) and contact rate(.88 '02; .84 '01), indicate tremendous future potential. Acquire Pujols if your team needs a power boost at OF or either corner spot.
May Overachiever: Fernando Vina, 2B Previous Overachievers: April: Eli Marrero, C/OF
Three days left for All-Star voting; here's our recommended ballot. Click here to vote.
POS AL NL 1B J. Giambi T. Helton 2B A. Soriano J. Vidro 3B S. Hillenbrand M. Lowell SS A. Rodriguez J. Hernandez C J. Posada M. Piazza OF I. Suzuki B. Bonds OF M. Ramirez S. Sosa OF T. Hunter V. Guerrero
Click
here to read the previous article.
Please e-mail your comments to
tim@rotohelp.com. |
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