June 20th 2002 |
Your Daily Fantasy Rx |
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by Tim Polko
Arizona: Greg Swindell, LH Reliever He's established himself as a quality veteran lefty since his conversion to full-time relief work in 1997, holding an ERA under 4.00 every year until last season. His problem last season was an elevated 2.0 homer rate, and his HR/9(2.6 '02; 1.0 career) this season continue this unfortunate trend, largely caused by a seventh straight year of a declining G-F(.30 '02; .95 career). Swindell's K:BB(6.0 '02; 3.1 career) shows good command, and there's only slight problems with his K/9(5.2 '02; 6.2 career) and H/9(9.6 '02; 9.3 career), but he's not worth owning right now due all the gopherballs. Deal or cut Swindell at your first opportunity to remove him from your roster.
May Underachiever: Miguel Batista, RH Swingman Previous Underachievers: April: Rick Helling, RH Starter
With one of the best middle relief corps of all time this season, I find it difficult to find any true underachievers. However we expected a very good year from Albie Lopez, and despite our delight with owning Damian Moss in a few leagues, we also still hold on to Lopez, hoping for a return to starting. Considering his wealth of available options, Bobby Cox only uses Lopez about once a week, contributing Lopez's general skill malaise this season. He's roughly maintained his K:BB(1.8 '02; 1.6 career), K/9(5.9 '02; 5.9 career), and G-F(1.56 '02; 1.50 career) while allowing a small jump in H/9(10.5 '02; 9.8 career). The reason his ERA is over a point below his 4.71 career mark is he hasn't allowed any homers after posting a 1.2 career HR/9. I suspect this ratio will rise as the year progresses, likely corresponding with a 4.00+ ERA. If allowed to start regularly at some point, we still hope he'll see skill growth and approach double-digit roto value, but since his trade value has likely disappeared, you should probably wait and hopefully reserve him while he's in the bullpen.
May Underachiever: Kevin Millwood, RH Starter Previous Underachievers: April: John Smoltz, RH Closer
The Cubs are providing their non-Kerry starters with 4.4 or less runs per game; only Juan Cruz is receiving less than Bere's 3.9 R/G of "support". Despite only one win, Bere's displayed excellent skills, including solid K:BB(2.4 '02; 1.4 career), K/9(6.9 '02; 7.5 career), and HR/9(.9 '02; 1.1 career), along with an acceptable H/9(9.8 '02; 8.8 career). The low HR/9 is mainly due to the best G-F(1.19 '02; .93 career) of his ten Major League seasons. He's currently running a 34555 5-start PQS log, making him one of the hottest pitchers in the game and a definite target to acquire for solid qualitative numbers and hopefully wins.
May Underachiever: Jeff Fassero, LH Reliever Previous Underachievers: April: Jason Bere, RH Starter
Normally one of the top middle relievers in the game and an asset regardless of your league depth or categories, Sullivan's barely helped this year due to the worst HR/9(1.4 '02; 1.0 career) and G-F(.72 '02; .93 career) of his career. Fortunately he's continued to compile marks ranging from solid to excellent in K:BB(2.5 '02; 2.3 career), K/9(8.3 '02; 7.5 career), and H/9(7.7 '02; 7.7 career). Five of his six homers allowed occurred on the road, including two each in St. Louis and Texas. Although his G-F worries me, he's pitching great at home, and his unusually high ERA makes him a prime target to acquire, especially if you can sit him against tough teams on the road.
May Underachiever: Joey Hamilton, RH Starter Previous Underachievers: April: Scott Williamson, RH Reliever
He's likely the worst player in the game to own in most leagues right now due to his tremendous potential to annihilate your ERA and WHIP; you should generally avoid pitchers when their ERAs resemble Boeing products or anyone running a 02113 5-start PQS log. Hampton's G-F(1.72 '02; 2.25 career) has been around .50 below his career norm since joining Colorado, and he hasn't posted a number below 2.00 since his debut season in 1993. The scary number in his skills is a .5 HR/9 this year, which is a little below his .7 career average and significantly better than last season's 1.4 HR/9; I suspect he'll finish the year much closer to last year's ratio than his current one. If we assume he'll hold his dreadfully poor K:BB(.8 '02; 1.6 career), K/9(4.7 '02; 5.9 career), and H/9(12.4 '02; 9.2 career), along with at least a 1.5 HR/9(to bring his ratio up close to 1.4 by the end of the year), we should expect an ERA close to 8 for the balance of the year. Definitely deal or drop Hampton if you still own him for any reason.
May Underachiever: Denny Neagle, LH Starter Previous Underachievers: April: John Thomson, RH Starter
Following the Alfonseca trade, most people expected Looper to close in Florida; we grabbed Nunez in two leagues before the trade since we knew of the possibility of save opportunities and that Looper didn't possess the skills to close. Looper's underachieving since despite pitching relatively effectively in middle relief, the Marlins acquired him from the Cardinals with the intent that he'd close by now. His major advantage two years ago was a 3.04 G-F, and he's now practically a flyball pitcher with a still-decreasing G-F(1.09 '02; 1.92 career) that's causing a career-worst HR/9(1.4 '02; .9 career). Looper's ERA is actually higher now than at any time since his 3.1 IP debut in 1998, though with improvements in his K:BB(1.9 '02; 1.4 career), K/9(6.7 '02; 5.6 career), and H/9(9.5 '02; 9.4 career), he still could develop into a dependable closer if he can regain his great G-F ratio. However unless you're solely playing for the future, so you should probably deal Looper to a rebuilding team or one that wants insurance for Nunez.
May Underachiever: Josh Beckett, RH Starter Previous Underachievers: April: Brad Penny, RH Starter
Despite a rather poor 40004 5-start PQS log, Redding's skills indicate a good chance of extended success. A lower K/9(7.8 '02; 8.9 '01) has caused a drop in K:BB(1.9 '02; 2.3 '01), but a decreased H/9(8.8 '02; 10.0 '01) has kept his WHIP at almost helpful levels. His G-F(1.03 '02; .98 '01) still indicates potentially lengthy problems in his home park, and his high HR/9(1.4 '02; 1.8 '01), even on the road, suggests his ERA will stay somewhat high. Consider a deal with a rebuilding team if you can receive more dependable help for this year.
May Underachiever: Scott Linebrink, RH Reliever Previous Underachievers: April: Billy Wagner, LH Closer
Carrara was our choice to close for the Dodgers entering Spring Training. While we're certainly pleased with Gagne's performance, Carrara's struggles are somewhat surprising after a generally strong skills set from last season, including a 2.9 K:BB, 7.4 K/9, and 7.7 H/9. This season's numbers, including a relatively poor K:BB(1.5 '02; 1.5 '02) and K/9(4.6 '02; 6.1 career), along with a merely average H/9(9.7 '02; 10.3 career), indicate that his ERA might still rise. Also, despite the second-worst G-F(.75 '02; .93 career) ratio of his career, his HR/9(1.3 '02; 1.8 career) is only slightly above his lowest ever mark last year. You probably should look to deal Carrara for a less risky pitcher with better skills.
May Underachiever: Kevin Brown, RH Starter Previous Underachievers: April: Paul Quantrill, RH Reliever
Both Sheets and Ruben Quevedo have won less than a third of their starts despite impressive PQS runs at times, but I'll look at the pitcher with the better ERA now before likely reviewing Quevedo next month. His current 24205 5-start PQS log shows both his potential and current problems, as while he's impressively improved his K/9(7.2 '02; 5.6 '01), HR/9(.5 '02; 1.4 '01), and G-F(2.20 '02; 1.59 '01), he's lost a little ground in both K:BB(1.8 '02; 2.0 '01) and H/9(10.0 '02; 9.9 '01), increasing his ratio from 1.41 last year to 2002's 1.54. I see no reason why he shouldn't continue maturing into at least a #2 if not an ace, although he remains risky for this season; acquire him if rebuilding and wait for more consistency if you already own him and are contending.
May Underachiever: Glendon Rusch, LH Starter Previous Underachievers: April: Nick Neugebauer, RH Starter
Although we never expected much from him due to weaker skills, his ERA seems too low, his WHIP seems too high, and he's converted only six of his eleven save opportunities, a success rate that leaves Scott Stewart and T.J. Tucker as the primary closers. Herges' only primary skill is a great HR/9(.5 '02; .7 career), fueled by an improved G-F(1.85 '02; 1.62 '02 career). His K:BB(1.9 '02; 1.8 career) and K/9(7.1 '02; 6.6 career) are only barely respectable, and his H/9(12.2 '02; 9.0 career) this season have left his ratio a complete mess. You should explore trade possibilities, but if you can't find fair value for a theoretical closer-in-waiting, wait until he grabs one or two saves before trying again.
May Underachiever: Javier Vazquez, RH Starter Previous Underachievers: April: Britt Reames, RH Reliever
The Mets only give D'Amico a bare 3.0 runs per game of support, and an offense that scrapes together 5.1 runs a game for Steve Trachsel has left their third best starter with only four wins. He's maintained a solid K:BB(3.4 '02; 2.2 career) and developing K/9(6.2 '02; 5.9 career) despite an ERA that has risen over a point in his last few starts despite a 50503 PQS log. After his G-F(.77 '02; .84 career) peaked in 2000 at all of 1.03, it fell back to .60 last year before a helpful bump this season; unfortunately this remains a weak area of his skills and I wouldn't be surprised if his HR/9(1.2 '02; 1.4 career) rose in the near future. At least the reduced H/9(7.7 '02; 8.8 career) helps keep his WHIP down, but don't be afraid to deal him after weighing his skill potential with his injury history, run support, and high homer rate.
May Underachiever: Shawn Estes, LH Starter
Previous Underachievers: April: Kane Davis, RH Reliever Ricky Bottalico, Dan Plesac, Jose Santiago, and Cormier all possess surprisingly high ERAs and ratios, but Cormier's skills are generally improved from an already solid base level; he's never posted an ERA worse than 4.61 in any season with more than seven appearances, including his six years of starting. After a decade where his G-F only exceeded 1.69 once, his G-F(2.50 '02; 1.64 career) jumped to 2.05 upon joining the Phillies last year before this year's continued improvement, allowing him to maintain his lower HR/9(.7 '02; .9 career). His K/9(8.1 '02; 5.5 career) is rather shocking considering he's never exceeded 6.5 in any season, although he suffers from a lower K:BB(1.8 '02; 2.7 career) due to a career-worst 4.6 BB/9. While a career-best H/9(8.1 '01; 9.5 career) helps compensate for his weaker control, I haven't observed many pitchers with extremes in nearly all their skills. You should probably see if you can acquire Cormier if you need middle relief help as I believe his improved dominance and G-F will outweigh any persistent command problems, even if he appears rather risky at the moment.
May Underachiever: Brandon Duckworth, RH Starter Previous Underachievers: April: Randy Wolf, LH Starter
Benson clearly needed more time to rehab from surgery since his skills have mostly vanished. A dreadful 02200 PQS log illustrates his limited success this season. Not one skill among his K:BB(1.1 '02; 1.8 career), K/9(5.2 '02; 6.9 career), H/9(14.0 '02; 8.9 career), HR/9(1.3 '02; .9 career), or G-F(.93 '02; 1.60 career) truly resembles that of the former #1 overall pick prior to his injury. Perhaps Benson can regain his pitching ability by next season, but no contender should keep him rostered in 2002; deal him to a rebuilding team for immediate help at your first opportunity.
May Underachiever: Ron Villone, LH Swingman Previous Underachievers: April: Sean Lowe, RH Reliever
Fikac earned a brief trip to the minors after the relatively complete breakdown of the great skills that prompted a promotion from AA during last season and left him as Hoffman's primary setup man and back-up closer by the end of 2001. Only an increased K/9(8.0 '02; 6.5 '01) shows much promise from this year's skills as his K:BB(1.9 '02; 3.8 '01) fell by half, his H/9(7.8 '02; 5.1 '01) is no longer a great asset, and a higher G-F(.84 '02; 1.46 '01) forced an unfortunately huge jump in his HR/9(1.9 '02; .7 '01). He didn't impress anyone in his three appearances in AA with no strikeouts or walks in three innings while allowing five hits; San Diego's apparently forgotten they even own a AAA team. (If San Diego GM Kevin Towers is reading this column, the phone number of your AAA affiliate, the Portland Beavers, is (503)553-5400; ask for Beaver GM Mark Schuster if you'd like to promote someone over the age of 23 to the Padres. We recommend either right-hander starter John Snyder, right-handed reliever Brandon Villafuerte, or lefty swingman Jason Kershner depending on the team needs at the time.) Due to his skill regression, you should avoid or deal Fikac since he could continue to struggle for the rest of the year.
May Underachiever: Jason Middlebrook, RH Swingman Previous Underachievers: April: Brian Tollberg, RH Starter
Even as Dusty Baker has reportedly moved FRod to middle relief and promoted Tim Worrell to the setup role, FRod appears recovered from his slump; only his H/9(9.1 '02; 8.0 career) and HR/9(1.2 '02; .7 career) still severely diverge from his norms. While his K:BB(1.9 '02; 2.0 career), K/9(9.1 '02; 8.7 career), and G-F(.80 '02; .85 career) are not all at all the levels displayed over the last two years, they remain acceptable, especially considering his continued dominance. His command problems evaporated after April as his combined May and June skills include a solid 2.5 K:BB and impressive 10.4 K/9; a 10.4 K/9 and 1.6 HR/9 still suggest some extended difficulties, but his most vital skills are back. Now may be your last chance to acquire FRod at a discount before he re-establishes himself as Nen's potential successor.
May Underachiever: Jason Schmidt, RH Starter Previous Underachievers: April: Aaron Fultz, LH Reliever
Felipe Alou and Tony La Russa combined to pitch Kline in 254 games over the last three years, seventeen more than Scott Sullivan, the next most-used pitcher in baseball since 1998. He finally spent a month on the DL with first a strained triceps and then tendinitis in his left knee, which was actually a form of gout. His skills remain intact, and he appears at full strength and prepared to resume a heavy workload. Kline's command and dominance are obvious considering his K:BB(5.3 '02; 2.0 career) and K/9(9.4 '02; 7.8 career), and his H/9(9.4 '02; 8.5 career) is only slightly elevated. The one worrisome mark is his HR/9(0.0 '02; .8 career); with a career-worst G-F(1.00 '02; 1.89 career), .70 lower than last year's previously worst lowest level, we can expect him to finish the year with at least 1.0+ HR/9. I still recommend you acquire Kline due to his great skills, occasional save opportunities, and normally frequent vultured wins, but don't offer much since his ERA likely won't help nearly as much as his WHIP or qualitative stats.
May Underachiever: Garrett Stephenson, RH Starter Previous Underachievers: April: Bud Smith, LH Starter
Starters(6) No starts: Randy, Pedro, Schilling, Clemens, and Morris.
Relievers(4) We continue to place our faith in Lawrence, and coupled with the added salary we can save, Mussina will hit our bench as we start the other six. We're still concerned about Izzy's healthy, so he'll stay sitting in favor of the cheaper relievers. Colorado's still home, and instead of the quality Yankees' pitching, they now face Tampa Bay for the weekend; all four of our Rockies will start. Thanks to our cheap pitching staff, we also possess the cap room necessary to deploy one of the three top outfielders. All three are at home, but while Sosa and Bonds face three right-handers, Vlad face Cleveland's top two left-handers; Vlad only hits .212 with a .648 OPS against lefties, and he's hit all but one of his 16 homers against right-handers. Since Sosa and Bonds are both posting fantastic numbers this month, we want to start both of them. We'll need to sit Ryan Klesko, largely due to his questionable status because of an injured left wrist, and we'll hope Drew doesn't break out against Chicago or Daryle Ward against Seattle. Erubiel Durazo will be our last DH to round out the roster.
C Jorge Posada 990 C A.J. Pierzynski 460 1B Jason Giambi 1640 1B Ryan Klesko 1300 2B Luis Castillo 1000 2B Alfonso Soriano 900 3B Eric Chavez 1070 3B Shea Hillenbrand 450 SS Alex Rodriguez 1880 SS Jimmy Rollins 940 OF Sammy Sosa 1900 OF Larry Walker 1530 OF Ichiro Suzuki 1330 OF Lance Berkman 1320 OF Juan Pierre 1180 OF Adam Dunn 710 DH Barry Bonds 1830 DH Erubiel Durazo 440
SP Javier Vazquez 1100 SP Barry Zito 1080 SP Kerry Wood 1050 SP Roy Oswalt 830 SP Brian Lawrence 480 SP Eric Gagne 500 RP Byung-Hyun Kim 1200 RP Mike Williams 900 RP Eddie Guardado 900 RP Jorge Julio 750
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