Today's Fantasy Rx

Anaheim: Aaron Sele, RH Starter
6-4 on 41:26 K:BB in 85 IP over 14 GS with 110 H, 12 HR, and 127-100 G-F; 5.29 ERA.

We expected a rebound from last season based on both a K:BB and H/9 improvement over the previous year; unfortunately Sele's turned out to be an ERA dilemma and WHIP killer. His current 13421 5-start PQS log doesn't show much promise, and only his HR/9(1.3 '02; .9 career) and G-F(1.27 '02; 1.42 career) remain close to either his career averages and acceptable numbers. A reduced K/9(4.3 '02; 6.5 career) drags down his K:BB(1.6 '02; 2.0 career) despite a slight improvement in his walk rate. Unfortunately a higher H/9(11.6 '02; 9.8 career) cancels any WHIP advantage from less walks, leaving Sele as a very questionable pitcher to own. Deal him if a team is either confident in a turnaround or desperately needs IP.

May Underachiever: Troy Percival, RH Closer
Old stats: 7 Saves on 19:7 K:BB in 11.2 IP over 13 G with 8 H, 2 HR, and a 3.09 ERA.
Recommendation: acquire.
Stats since recommendation: 9 Saves on 10:4 K:BB in 10 IP over 10 G with 11 H, 0 HR, and a 1.80 ERA.

Previous Underachievers: April: Scott Schoeneweis, LH Starter

Baltimore: Sidney Ponson, RH Starter
3-4 on 63:36 K:BB in 95 IP over 15 GS with 91 H, 12 HR, and 139-94 G-F; 4.07 ERA.

He's pitched quite well but remains tied with Travis Driskill for the second worst run support among Baltimore pitchers with at least three starts. His 04340 5-start PQS log illustrates his upside, and he'll retain significant value if he continues to post an ERA over .50 lower than his previous yearly low. With similar career-best marks in H/9(8.6 '02; 9.7 career), HR/9(1.1 '02; 1.3 career), and logically G-F(1.48 '02; 1.16 career), he's more consistently effective and doesn't hurt your WHIP. My concern rests with the little noticeable movement in his K:BB(1.8 '02; 1.8 career) and K/9(6.0 '02; 5.6 career); he's not dominating batters despite less baserunners allowed. Along with the lack of run support from a generally poor offense, unless someone's willing to overpay, you should probably wait to see if Ponson will return to his problems of past years or if he's actually developing as a pitcher.

May Underachiever: Jason Johnson, RH Starter
Old stats: 1-3 on 15:7 K:BB in 21.1 IP over 4 GS with 26 H, 1 HR, and a 5.48 ERA.
Recommendation: acquire.
Stats since recommendation: 0-2 on 14:5 K:BB in 17 IP over 3 GS with 16 H, 2 HR, and a 4.24 ERA.

Previous Underachievers: April: B.J. Ryan, LH Specialist

Boston: John Burkett, RH Starter
7-2 on 49:18 K:BB in 65.1 IP over 11 GS with 78 H, 10 HR, and 80-75 G-F; 4.00 ERA.

Most of Boston's pitchers are either performing at a very high level and supported by excellent skills or are struggling as expected. Burkett's certainly winning at an impressive rate, but we shouldn't have expected a sub-1.40 WHIP when he's only been below 1.42 once in the past five years, and he's no longer working under Leo Mazzone. A 31233 5-start PQS log demonstrates why we should worry about Burkett even maintaining his current pace. He's still holding solid numbers in K:BB(2.7 '02; 2.6 career), K/9(6.8 '02; 6.0 career), and H/9(10.7 '02; 9.7 career), but a rising HR/9(1.4 '02; .8 career, fueled by his worst G-F(1.07 '02; 1.39 career) since his first call-up back in 1987 for only three starts) keeps his value somewhat depressed. Consider a deal of Burkett to a team needing wins for a pitcher with more consistent skills.

May Underachiever: Frank Castillo, RH Starter
Old stats: 2-4 on 27:13 K:BB in 46.1 IP over 8 GS with 36 H, 7 HR, and a 3.88 ERA.
Recommendation: acquire.
Stats since recommendation: 3-3 on 25:14 K:BB in 36.2 over 6 GS with 36 H, 1 HR, and a 5.40 ERA.

Previous Underachievers: April: Rich Garces, RH Setup

Chicago White Sox: Todd Ritchie, RH Starter
4-9 on 53:33 K:BB in 93.1 IP over 16 GS with 112 H, 11 HR, and 134-109 G-F; 5.11 ERA.

After a very successful April, his last two months of struggles have left us uncertain as to his value, especially since we've been encouraged by his relatively solid skills for the last couple of years. A 34303 5-start PQS log shows improvement from a May filled mostly with disasters, although neither his K:BB(1.6 '02; 2.1 career) nor K/9(5.1 '02; 5.6 career) suggest a very solid skills' foundation. His elevated H/9(10.8 '02; 9.7 career), combined with his worst G-F(1.23 '02; 1.39 career) since he spent his 1997 rookie season in the bullpen, also indicates his HR/9(1.1 '02; 1.1 career) might rise over the balance of the year. Since he can't lose much more value at this point, you should probably wait to see some short-term improvement before either looking to add or trade him.

May Underachiever: Keith Foulke, RH Closer
Old stats: 8 Saves on 16:4 K:BB in 19.1 IP over 18 G with 23 H, 2 HR, and a 4.19 ERA.
Recommendation: acquire.
Stats since recommendation: 0 Saves on 8:4 K:BB in 12.1 IP over 10 G with 11 H, 3 HR, and a 6.57 ERA.

Previous Underachievers: April: Antonio Osuna, RH Middle Reliever

Cleveland: Bob Wickman, RH Closer
17 Saves on 30:9 K:BB in 26.1 IP over 28 H with 34 H, 1 HR, and 41-22 G-F; 4.44 ERA.

Wickman showed significant improvement, especially in his qualitative stats, over the past few years. However despite an excellent K:BB(3.3 '02; 1.7 career) and very good K/9(10.3 '02; 6.7 career), career-worst numbers in H/9(11.7 '02; 8.9 career) and G-F(1.86 '02; 2.47 career) ratio suggest an impending jump in his HR/9(.3 '02; .6 career). So even if his WHIP decreases, a rising ERA will keep his value strictly limited to saves and strikeouts. Look to deal Wickman, especially if you can acquire a replacement closer with a better G-F and stronger infield defense.

May Underachiever: C.C. Sabathia, LH Starter
Old stats: 3-4 on 40:25 K:BB in 51.2 IP over 9 GS with 54 H, 4 HR, and a 5.92 ERA.
Recommendation: wait.
Stats since recommendation: 2-1 on 20:11 K:BB in 31 IP over 5 GS with 31 H, 1 HR, and a 3.77 ERA.

Previous Underachievers: April: Chuck Finley, LH Starter

Detroit: Steve Sparks, RH Starter
3-7 on 36:27 K:BB in 86.1 IP over 14GS(15G) with 118 H, 7 HR, and 158-111 G-F; 5.94 ERA.

A 20003 5-start PQS log gives you a good idea of exactly how poorly he's pitched this year. We don't see much difference in his K:BB(1.3 '02; 1.2 career), K/9(3.8 '02; 4.4 career), HR/9(.7 '02; 1.0 career), or G-F(1.42 '02; 1.36 career), but a 2.5 H/9 jump in his H/9(12.3 '02; 9.8 career) leaves him practically unownable. Deal or reserve Sparks to avoid further qualitative statistical damage to your team.

May Underachiever: Jose Paniagua, RH Reliever
Old stats: 0-1 on 16:8 K:BB in 18.2 IP over 17 G with 21 H, 4 HR, and a 5.30 ERA.
Recommendation: acquire.
Stats since recommendation: 0-0 on 10:2 K:BB in 10.1 IP over 9 G with 8 H, 2 HR, and a 4.35 ERA.

Previous Underachievers: April: Mark Redman, LH Starter

Kansas City: Roberto Hernandez, RH Closer
10 Saves on 16:4 K:BB in 19 IP over 18 G with 19 H, 2 HR, and 30-15 G-F; 3.32 ERA.

With only ten saves, Hernandez has contributed less to his owners than any Opening Day closer save Yan, Foulke, or the injured Jeff Zimmerman and Matt Anderson. Despite some erosion in his K/9(7.6 '02; 8.4 career), H/9(9.0 '02; 8.0 career), and HR/9(.9 '02; .7 career), career-best marks in K:BB(4.0 '02; 2.3 career) and G-F(2.00 '02; 1.39 career) offer immediate promise. Even if the Royals don't increase their winning percentage, he'll still see enough save opportunities to accumulate potentially two dozen more saves, making him an interesting target to acquire.

May Underachiever: Jason Grimsley, RH Setup
Old stats: 2-2 on 13:12 K:BB in 18.2 IP over 19 G with 16 H, 1 HR, and a 4.34 ERA.
Recommendation: deal.
Stats since recommendation: 0-0 on 6:3 K:BB in 6 IP over 5 G with 4 H, 0 HR, and a 3.00 ERA before hitting the DL with a strained left oblique.

Previous Underachievers: April: Cory Bailey, RH Setup

Minnesota: Rick Reed, RH Starter
6-3 on 54:13 K:BB in 82.1 IP over 15 GS with 86 H, 17 HR, and 112-119 G-F; 4.48 ERA.

My concern here is that Reed is typically a first half pitcher, with an ERA that jumps almost a half point after the All-Star break. His steady K/9(5.9 '02; 5.8 career) and H/9(9.4 '02; 9.2 career) are helpful, and a rising K:BB(4.2 '02; 3.4 career) indicates his walk rate is down. However, his lowest G-F(.94 '02; 1.23 career) since he began starting suggests his 1.4 HR/9 will rise close to his 1.7 career level instead of heading down to his 1.2 mark of the last five years. A 05125 5-start PQS log demonstrates his potential domination, but considering his weak second half history, explore any potential deal for a starter with less risk.

May Underachiever: Eric Milton, LH Starter
Old stats: 6-3 on 30:10 K:BB in 59.2 IP over 10 GS with 66 H, 9 HR, and a 5.28 ERA.
Recommendation: wait.
Stats since recommendation: 2-2 on 27:6 K:BB in 34.1 IP over 5 GS with 34 H, 5 HR, and a 5.24 ERA.

Previous Underachievers: April: Brad Radke, RH Starter

New York Yankees: Sterling Hitchcock, LH Swingman
1-0 on 16:10 K:BB in 21.2 IP over 9G(2GS) with 32 H, 3 HR, and 28-33 G-F; 7.48 ERA.

While we recognize that the Yankees took a risk in re-signing Hitchcock, we felt he deserved fairly impressive compensation as one of the top three left-handed free agent starters. We expected he would see a modicum of success as either a starter or reliever, but several injuries have limited his effectiveness, including a sore back, strained groin, strained ligament in his back, and surgery to remove an ingrown toenail. Although the three worst G-F(.85 '02; 1.05 career) ratios of his career all occurred while on the Yankees' roster, his HR/9(1.2 '02; 1.3 career) aren't responsible for his terrible qualitative numbers. A reduced K/9(6.6 '02; 7.0 career) helped lower his K:BB(1.6 '02; 2.1 career), and his sharply increased H/9(13.2 '02; 9.6 career) caused his WHIP to skyrocket. Although I expect he'll struggle to some extent if they continue to shift his role, you'll likely receive no interest for him from other owners; if he's still on your roster, wait for improvement before taking action.

May Underachiever: Orlando Hernandez, RH Starter
Old stats: 4-2 on 43:15 K:BB in 52.1 IP over 8 GS with 37 H, 8 HR, and a 3.44 ERA.
Recommendation: acquire.
Stats since recommendation: None available since he's still on the DL, although he remains an intriguing acquisition when he returns.

Previous Underachievers: April: Roger Clemens, RH Hall of Fame Starter

Oakland: Cory Lidle, RH Starter
1-6 on 44:15 K:BB in 67.1 IP over 12 GS(13G) with 96 H, 7 HR, and 116-81 G-F; 5.88 ERA.

Allowing an average of more than four hits over every three innings will tend to drive up a pitcher's ERA. Lidle's H/9(12.8 '02; 9.7 career), while largely the fault of the fourth worst defense in the majors, is almost solely responsible for his destructive qualitative stats. Fortunately both his K:BB(2.9 '02; 2.5 career) and K/9(5.9 '02; 5.8 career) are solid, although I'm concerned about his HR/9(.9 '02; 1.0 career). Despite a career 2.03 G-F, his yearly G-F has fallen from 2.76 in 2000 to 1.81 in 2001 and 1.43 this year, indicating a probable rise in his HR/9 that might compensate for any H/9-driven ERA improvement. Since his trade value remains rather low at the moment, wait on any move until you see his skills deteriorate to his stats or his stats improve to numbers suggested by his skills.

May Underachiever: Billy Koch, RH Closer
Old stats: 7 Saves on 22:11 K:BB in 21.2 IP over 20 G with 16 H, 2 HR, and a 5.40 ERA.
Recommendation: acquire.
Stats since recommendation: 11 Saves on 22:9 K:BB in 18.1 IP over 15 G with 16 H, 1 HR, and a 1.96 ERA.

Previous Underachievers: April: Jeff Tam, RH Setup

Seattle: Rafael Soriano, RH Starter
0-3 on 28:11 K:BB in 41.2 IP over 6 GS(8G) with 33 H, 6 HR, and 38-67 G-F; 3.67 ERA.

On a staff with almost no pitcher truly underachieving, Soriano's lack of wins despite a current 5-start 24441 PQS log qualifies as quite surprising. I see no problem with a rookie posting a 2.5 K:BB, 6.0 K/9, or 7.1 H/9, and while his .57 G-F suggests a potential increase in his 1.3 HR/9, his ERA shouldn't stray much above four. If his owner is desperate for wins, point out his 0-3 record in an attempt to acquire him.

May Underachiever: Freddy Garcia, RH Starter
Old stats: 4-4 on 50:13 K:BB in 65.2 IP over 10 GS with 63 H, 10 HR, and a 3.63 ERA.
Recommendation: acquire.
Stats since recommendation: 6-0 on 43:7 K:BB in 44.2 IP over 6 GS with 26 H, 7 HR, and a 2.22 ERA.

Previous Underachievers: April: Paul Abbott, RH Starter

Tampa Bay: Esteban Yan, RH Closer
9 Saves on 17:12 K:BB in 28.2 IP over 25 G with 35 H, 5 HR, and 35-42 G-F; 5.65 ERA.

Only Travis Harper, Joe Kennedy, and Ryan Rupe hold K:BB marks over 2 this year, and Tampa shows little interest in allowing Harper to close while needing Kennedy and Rupe in the rotation. Yan succeeded as closer last year with a fantastic 5.8 mark, far better than this year's K:BB(1.4 '02; 2.2 career). All his skills have deteriorated this season past his career norms, including his K/9(5.3 '02; 7.4 career), H/9(11.0 '02; 10.0 career), HR/9(1.6 '02; 1.4 career), and Yan's worst G-F(.83 '02; 1.12 career) since the 1997 season. We've seen no reports of any injury, but few other explanations account for this disastrous performance. He's shown no indication of skill improvement and his command has even slipped since a 7:3 K:BB in April. You should wait until Yan sees some success, and then actively try to deal him.

May Underachiever: Ryan Rupe, RH Starter
Old stats: 3-5 on 42:8 K:BB in 47.2 IP over 8 GS with 45 H, 6 HR, and a 5.85 ERA.
Recommendation: acquire.
Stats since recommendation: 2-4 on 23:14 K:BB in 40 IP over 6 GS with 34 H, 5 HR, and a 5.18 ERA.

Previous Underachievers: April: Jesus Colome, RH Reliever

Texas: Rob Bell, RH Starter
3-2 on 32:14 K:BB in 40.1 IP over 7 GS with 41 H, 5 HR, and 61-42 G-F; 5.80 ERA.

We can attribute much of Chan Ho Park's struggles to his injury, but Bell's ERA seems quite high for a pitcher only 4.2 homerless innings and no more than 4 hits short of a 1a 2002 LPR rating. Texas seems confused by his unreasonably high ERA, so hopefully a 10553 PQS log in his recent starts will help convince them to leave him in the rotation. After two years of a .85 career G-F, he's at 1.45 G-F this year and his former 2.0 HR/9 average has plummeted to 1.1 and might continue to drop. Bell's K:BB(2.3 '02; 1.5 career) is a product of both an increased K/9(7.1 '02; 6.5 career) and better control, and he's even maintaining an improved H/9(9.1 '02; 9.5 career). He'll emerge as a solid middle-of-the-rotation starter as soon as Texas leaves him in the majors for a few months, and now is a great time to acquire Bell at your first opportunity.

May Underachiever: Dave Burba, RH Starter
Old stats: 3-1 on 44:20 K:BB in 53 IP over 9 GS with 50 H, 8 HR, and a 5.26 ERA.
Recommendation: acquire.
Stats since recommendation: 0-3 on 14:9 K:BB in 30.1 IP over 5 GS(6G) with 37 H, 2 HR, and a 5.34 ERA.

Previous Underachievers: April: Rudy Seanez, RH Reliever

Toronto: Justin Miller, RH Starter
4-4 on 35:40 K:BB in 53.1 IP over 10 GS(14G) with 58 H, 6 HR, and 84-52 G-F; 6.58 ERA.

A 35300 5-start PQS log shows both some promise and likely struggles in the near future. Most of his skills appear at good levels for a rookie, including his 5.9K/9, 9.8 H/9, 1.0 HR/9, and 1.62 G-F. Unfortunately a .9 K:BB will scare off almost anyone looking past his ERA. As Miller's averaged a 2.0 MLE K:BB over the last two seasons in the high minors, I expect him to head back toward that level once he grows accustomed to the Toronto organization following his trade from Oakland with Eric Hinske for Billy Koch. However he's displayed no consistency in his ten starts, so only acquire him if rebuilding since he could seriously hurt your qualitative numbers if you keep him rostered on a contender.

May Underachiever: Kelvim Escobar, RH Closer
Old stats: 7 Saves on 24:12 K:BB in 23.1 IP over 18 G with 20 H, 4 HR, and a 4.63 ERA.
Recommendation: acquire.
Stats since recommendation: 6 Saves on 13:8 K:BB in 11.1 IP over 12 G with 11 H, 0 HR, and a 4.76 ERA.

Previous Underachievers: April: Luke Prokopec, RH Starter

Today's Fantasy Rx: Mike Ditka offers an interesting annual take on "Take Me Out to the Ballgame" at Wrigley. He performed on Tuesday. I recommend you not listen to his greatest hits if you have a headache, might be coming down with a headache, or suspect you might suffer from a headache at any point in the future.