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June 18th 2002 |
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Your Daily Fantasy Rx |
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by Tim Polko Note: The beginning of most stat lines includes data for H/AB for BA/OBP/SLG.
Arizona: Craig Counsell, IF Counsell isn't truly underachieving since he's on pace for a career-high in runs scored and possible doubling his previous best RBI total, but both his skills and averages are down from both his career averages and the past few seasons. He's keeping a BA above his .269 career average due to a slightly elevated contact rate(.88 '02; .86 career); his plate discipline has started to slide, as indicated by his diminished BB:K(.78 '02; .89 career) and walk rate(.10 '02; .12 career). I'm more worried that he's lost more ground in #P/PA(3.81 '02; 3.95 career) and G-F(1.72 '02; 1.65 career), since these are his worst marks here since 1997. Since Counsell will continue to play nearly everyday for a surprisingly strong offense, his extra RBI and runs above our expectations will help him maintain his value; you should wait to see if he can also hold the BA.
May Underachiever: Tony Womack, SS Previous Underachievers: April: Mark Grace, 1B
I don't really see many Braves performing below expectations; if not for his injury I'd probably discuss Marcus Giles but we're slightly worried about his recovery considering the distractions in his personal life. Lockhart's new everyday job gives him more opportunities to hurt your team until Marcus returns. The only good news here is a dropping G-F(.72 '02; .96 career), suggesting he might contribute some power. Falling marks in BB:K(.38 '02; .75 career); walk rate(.06 '02; .08 career), #P/PA(3.31 '02; 3.38 career), and contact rate(.85 '02; .89 career) combine to leave him completely unownable in any league unless you are extremely desperate for at-bats to qualify for BA points. Deal, or more likely, drop Lockhart whenever possible if you unfortunately picked him up this year.
May Underachiever: Gary Sheffield, OF Previous Underachievers: April: Javy Lopez, C
Traditionally we could count on Mueller to post an above average BA with a helpful contribution of runs, along with a half dozen or more homers and maybe around 60 RBI. After his broken kneecap last season due to inadequate and since added padding at Busch, as well as other problems delaying his rehab and return, Mueller's skills don't really resemble his previous numbers. The most surprising development, especially considering his low BA, is that his contact rate(.92 '02; .87 career) remains over .90; he'd never broken .90 until last season. I'm not too shocked by either his somewhat improved BB:K(1.20 '02; .98 career) or worse walk rate(.10 '02; .13 career), but his #P/PA(3.55 '02; 3.71 career) is the lowest of his career by .10 #P/PA, indicating mildly eroding plate discipline even as his strike zone judgment improves. Also, other than a 1.28 G-F in 2000, he's never been below 1.45 until this season's 1.16 G-F, far below his 1.41 career norm. The most logical explanation is that he's upper-cutting his swing, causing significantly more flyouts instead of his trademark Texas Leaguer singles. I'm confident that he'll return to his above average ways by the end of the season, so if you need help in BA or Runs (since he continues to hit ahead of Sosa), you should attempt to acquire Mueller at a probable discount.
May Underachiever: Moises Alou, OF Previous Underachievers: April: Fred McGriff, 1B
Walker's at his worst BA since he hit .237 in 156 at-bats for the Twins in 1997. While his #P/PA(3.70 '02; 3.77 career) is his lowest since 1998, he's holding steady at his career averages in BB:K(.63 '02; .64 career), walk rate(.10 '02; .09 career), and contact rate(.84 '02; .85 career). After a career-best 1.15 G-F last season, split between a 1.29 for Colorado and a 1.00 for Cincinnati, he's fallen back to his average G-F(1.30 '02; 1.39 career) this year. Aside from likely continuing meager power production, I see no reason not to acquire Walker if you need BA help.
May Underachiever: Aaron Boone, 3B Previous Underachievers: April: Adam Dunn, OF
The weak starts of the catchers and back-ups aren't completely surprising, but after a very impressive debut last year, many people forgot about his limited minor league experience and looked at him as a likely cheap shortstop in Coors with good BA, power, and excellent speed potential. As Uribe hasn't even turned 23 yet and basically skipped AA, we should likely adjust our immediate expectations downward while remembering his future upside. A higher G-F(1.35 '02; 1.00 '01) doesn't suggest much power development, but his plate discipline skills all indicate rapid improvement, including his BB:K(.39 '02; .15 '01), walk rate(.08 '02; .03 '01), and #P/PA(3.66 '02; 3.42 '01). These skills, coupled with a steady contact rate(.80 '02; .80 '01), indicate that a sub-.200 BA is definitely far below his true abilities. However, a look at his monthly trends this year suggests a more troublesome conclusion:
Month BA BB:K BB% CT% April .373 .42 .08 .81 May .188 .52 .11 .79 June .163 .08 .02 .76 While a .373 BA is probably around .75 points above his skill level, a .188 BA is an equal distance below it. Unfortunately, despite improving his place discipline through May, Uribe might spend most of his at-bats hacking at pitches in an attempt to increase his BA. Someone needed to tell him about fifty at-bats ago that a .276 BA was perfectly acceptable, but Clint Hurdle instead demoted Uribe to the #8 slot. Now he'll likely see fewer good pitches as teams generally will avoid him in favor of facing non-Hampton pitchers, and these decreased opportunities, combined with his current mindset, might even force a trip to AAA, a drastic step that will likely increase the erosion of his confidence. From a roto perspective, Uribe appears as a very risky play right now, and we'll attempt to start avoiding any unnecessary deployment of him in Challenge games. Strongly consider a possible deal of Uribe to a rebuilding team for more immediate help. We're going to explore a trade even in our one keeper league where we own him at a buck through next season (with the right to extend him indefinitely at $5/year). He'll still bring a very attractive package in return since most owners will assume his slump is temporary, and while I like him for August, September, and next season, he's a risky play through the end of July unless his skills show almost immediate improvement.
May Underachiever: Todd Hollandsworth, OF Previous Underachievers: April: Jose Ortiz, 2B
Despite an impressive beginning to the season that should leave him short of an All-Star berth considering the great season of Mike Lowell, Floyd's BA is uncomfortably below his .308 cumulative mark of the past three seasons. He's only 14 walks shy of his career-high, set only last season, and his BB:K(.80 '02; .55 career), walk rate(.20 '02; .11 career), and #P/PA(3.55 '02; 3.54 career) all appear very solid and supportive of his play this season. A career-best G-F(.84 '02; 1.11 career) even supports further power development, so there's little reason his BA is relatively low. His contact rate(.76 '02; .80 career) is the likely culprit, as he's averaged a .81 CT% over the past three years; his CT% was .77 in April, .75 in May, and .75 so far in June, so we can't expect much of a BA increase based on current trends. Especially if you can't keep players traded to the other league or you remain worried as always about another potential injury, Floyd should be someone you're willing to deal for the right package.
May Underachiever: Charles Johnson, C Previous Underachievers: April: Kevin Millar, OF
We expected Zaun to challenge for the starting job all year, possibly finishing in the top half dozen of NL catchers in roto value. He should be used to this inconsistent playing time, but even while maintaining his G-F(1.06 '02; 1.07 career) and increasing his #P/PA(3.89 '02; 3.75 career), he's .130 under his career OPS. I don't expect much of an immediate rebound since his BB:K(.50 '02; .92 career), walk rate(.09 '02; .13 career), and contact rate(.82 '02; .85 career) indicate noticeable plate discipline problems this season. However, you should probably wait on Zaun despite his skill problems since he's traditionally a second half player and likely won't possess much trade value at the moment.
May Underachiever: Craig Biggio, 2B Previous Underachievers: April: Morgan Ensberg, 3B
After never stealing less than twenty bases in any full-season league and racking 32 steals twice in the last three years, his pre-2002 career 69% SB% rate has followed Izturis to the majors. The combination of a weak OBP decreasing his basestealing opportunities and his weak percentage has left Izturis with far less value than his owners likely expected; we predicted 26 steals for him this year and I doubt anyone drafting him expected much less. We can expect Izturis to improve next year since his BB:K(.43 '02; .13 '01) and walk rate(.05 '02; .01 '01) already show improvement from his rookie 2001 while he's held a solid contact rate(.89 '02; .89 '01). His #P/PA(3.26 '02; 2.88 '01) indicates he's seeing more pitches, and his G-F(1.76 '02; 1.58 '01) shows he's hitting more grounders to hopefully take advantage of his speed. I'm left with two very different recommendation for Izturis. If you're contending, deal him for immediate help, and expect to receive a significant package in return if he's only at a few dollars; if rebuilding, look to acquire Izturis as a potentially great value for next season.
May Underachiever: Adrian Beltre, 3B Previous Underachievers: April: Shawn Green
After anticipating Belliard would hit 18 homers in limited playing time, largely due to a G-F ratio that dropped from 1.61 in 2000 to 1.29 in 2001, we're looking at his 0 homers and 9 RBI wondering why he's now posting his worst G-F(1.85 '02; 1.49 career) ever. He's somehow increased his contact rate(.89 '02; .86 career) as his BB:K(.73 '02; .86 career) falls and walk rate(.08 '02; .13 career) plummets. A respectable #P/PA(3.79 '02; 3.82 career) suggests that he's maintaining his normal plate discipline as he focuses on making any contact at all so he can stay in the lineup. I truly want to avoid peppering my columns with sports' and fantasy clichés like "this guy needs a change of scenery", but Belliard still possesses the ability to excel if trusted with a regular job. Only acquire him after a trade or other change increases his playing time.
May Underachiever: Eric Young, 2B Previous Underachievers: April: Raul Casanova, C
Cabrera has a bulging disc in his back that will likely require at least extended rest and rehab after the season. This injury is the entire reason why Cabrera is not enjoying a strong follow-up to his breakout 2001. Actually he is following up his skill development with his best #P/PA(3.67 '02; 3.46 career) in any full season and a G-F(1.10 '02; 1.27 career) that's dropped for the fifth straight season. He's holding his BB:K(.79 '02; .71 career) from last season along with his best walk rate(.09 '02; .06 career) ever, and a reduced contact rate(.89 '02; .91 career) is the only problem in his skills. The injury will curtail his speed and power this year, so if you own him at a discount, you could ask for a significant package in return, but he'll still produce helpful numbers, so you might want to wait for a hot streak before considering any deals.
May Underachiever: Lee Stevens, 1B Previous Underachievers: April: Orlando Cabrera, SS
Mo didn't notice that his bats were a couple ounces too heavy this year until May, but even after fixing that problem, neither his power nor his BA have returned to accustomed levels. While he's maintained his #P/PA(3.76 '02; 3.79 career) and G-F(1.12 '02; 1.17 career), decreases in his BB:K(.39 '02; .51 career), walk rate(.11 '02; .13 career), and contact rate(.70 '02; .74 career) leave him a much weaker overall hitter. Unless you can find someone willing to chance a trade, you should probably wait and hope that he'll eventually approach his pre-injury hitting abilities at some point this season.
May Underachiever: Roberto Alomar, 2B
Larry Bowa has wisely started benching Glanville to keep both Jeremy Giambi and Travis Lee in the lineup, and Glanville's sub-.600 OPS more than cancels out any defensive advantage the Phillies gain when he starts. While we recognized that Glanville owned very shallow skills and would always suffer BA difficulties, we expected he'd produce close to twenty homers and over two-dozen steals. He seems very unlikely to match these goals despite improving or maintaining all his skills, including a career-best G-F(1.10 '02; 1.43 career) that normally indicates power growth. Although his BB:K(.47 '02; .43 career), walk rate(.07 '02; .05 career), and #P/PA(3.54 '02; 3.53 career) are all below average, even a depressed contact rate(.85 '02; .87 career) doesn't explain his horrendous showing in 2002. I can only suggest that he's at the bottom of the slumps typical for hitters with weak plate discipline, and if you believe he'll continue to start most games, you should acquire him at a likely discounted price.
May Underachiever: Mike Lieberthal, C Previous Underachievers: April: Travis Lee, 1B
His decision to charge the mound in an April game ranks with the most foolish moves of the years since the ankle damage suffered in that event has left him one of the most unproductive players in the game. Looking at his skills, we see that while his BB:K(.26 '02; .33 career) is slightly down, he's improved his walk rate(.07 '02; .06 career), #P/PA(3.83 '02; 3.76 career), and G-F(.79 '02; .97 career). A significantly lowered contact rate(.74 '02; .80 career) is the obvious problem here, but considering the lingering injury problems, I don't believe he's likely to decrease his strikeout rate this year. Deal Ramirez if you can receive anything in return to help this season.
May Underachiever: Adrian Brown, OF Previous Underachievers: April: Jason Kendall, C
Only Ryan Klesko and perhaps Mark Kotsay are even approaching pre-season expectations among San Diego position players, and Klesko's forgotten his stolen bases while Kotsay's still not fulfilling annual breakout predictions. We own Lankford on a couple teams and fully expected a return to his pre-2001 level of production, pro-rated to platoon at-bats; we never seriously considered the possibility that he'd post the lowest OPS of his career, almost entirely due to a lack of power. He's maintained his BB:K(.52 '02; .53 career) and walk rate(.15 '02; .14 career), along with relatively small changes in his contact rate(.70 '02; .73 career) and G-F(1.05 '02; 1.02 career). The low contact rate is a problem, but he's managed a .480+ SLG for the last eight years with an equivalent level. Aside from the miniscule power output, the most glaring statistical sign is his worst #P/PA(3.94 '02; 4.10 career) in a decade. Perhaps he's just not comfortable waiting for his pitch since, due to injuries, he's not in a straight platoon and doesn't know when he'll play, leading him to swing earlier in the count. However, regardless of any non-statistical reason, Lankford will burden even NL-only teams with a weak BA and low power numbers, so you should probably look to deal him if possible.
May Underachiever: Bubba Trammell, OF Previous Underachievers: April: Ramon Vazquez, SS
Snow has largely lost his starting job to Damon Minor, who both offers more long-term and apparently immediate upside for the Giants' lineup. While he's still producing helpful totals in runs and RBI, his horrendous BA and seemingly vanished power leave him practically useless to many teams. We find some noticeable upside in his skills with seemingly improved or respectably steady skills in BB:K(.70 '02; .63 career), walk rate(.13 '02; .13 career), #P/PA(3.81 '02; 3.94 career), and contact rate(.82 '02; .79 career). The big departure is that his current G-F(1.33 '02; .91 career) is the worst of his career, and the 1.33 is a significant increase of the previously worst 1.09 from last year, and on the even earlier "worst" G-F of .95 back in 2000. Most likely, the increased grounders provide him with an unfortunate opportunity to employ his "speed", leading to extra groundouts and the resulting low BA. I still feel his average is below his skill level, so he makes a decent target to acquire if you need BA help, especially since his value is extremely low at the moment due to Minor's surge in both production and playing time.
May Underachiever: Tsuyoshi Shinjo, OF Previous Underachievers: April: Jeff Kent, 2B and Lost Son of Evil Knievel
We expected his stolen base surge from the second half would help lead to a career year, but he doesn't appear likely to even hit double-digit homers or break twenty steals at his current pace. Fortunately career-best marks in BB:K(1.00 '02; .60 career), #P/PA(3.68 '02; 3.58), and contact rate(.90 '02; .85 career), along with the second best walk rate(.10 '02; .09 career) of his career, all indicate that he's due for a major increase in production in the near future. Only his G-F(1.58 '02; 1.59 career) runs counter to that conclusion as it's fallen back to his career average after three years below 1.40. We still should see a strong surge from Renteria in the near future, making him a prime target to acquire for help in any category.
May Underachiever: Placido Polanco, IF Previous Underachievers: April: Tino Martinez, 1B
Click
here to read the previous article.
Please e-mail your comments to
tim@rotohelp.com. |
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