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June 17th 2002 |
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Your Daily Fantasy Rx |
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by Tim Polko Note: The beginning of most stat lines includes data for H/AB for BA/OBP/SLG.
Anaheim: Darin Erstad, OF In 1997, Erstad hit .299/.360/.466 on 1.13 G-F. In 1998, he hit .296/.353/.486 on 1.29 G-F. His G-F rose to 1.65 in 1999, and while he's down to 1.50 this season, his breakout 2000 looks like the statistical fluke considering his skill trends. Now his BB:K(.67 '02; .59 career) is up slightly this year, but a drastically declined walk rate(.06 '02; .09 career), coupled with a nicely increased contact rate(.91 '02; .85 career) indicates that his plate discipline is vanishing. A career-worst #P/PA(3.53 '02; 3.75 career) also supports that suggestion. He's on pace 10/83/22/86 season, and he'll be lucky to keep his BA close to .300 even if he reaches those marks. If another owner will pay in the expectation of a return to his 2000 stats, remain willing to deal Erstad for players with more immediate upside.
May Underachiever: Brad Fullmer, DH Previous Underachievers: April: Tim Salmon, OF
We've liked Fordyce since he started for the White Sox, and he helped sink at least one of our teams last year with his .209 BA. We unfortunately expected a rebound this year, but at least we didn't commit many assets to rostering him. Interestingly, he's actually maintaining most of his base skills, albeit with admittedly below average BB:K(.36 '02; .41 career), walk rate(.06 '02; .07 career), and contact rate(.83 '02; .83 career). However his #P/PA(3.31 '02; 3.58 career) is significantly down from last season's 3.70, and his terrible G-F(1.92 '02; 1.18 career) has risen from .85 in 2000 to 1.21 last year before this year's disaster. With both his patience and power continuing to decrease, deal or otherwise move Fordyce now before he hurts your team for any longer.
May Underachiever: Mike Bordick, SS Previous Underachievers: April: Chris Singleton, OF
We can easily forget that Rickey will turn 44 this Christmas after 8 HR and 25 SB last season; expecting a similar performance this year was probably an unreasonable prediction. Rickey's OBP has remained within a point of .367 for the last three years, although a team with Johnny Damon leading off doesn't really need a lesser OBP at the top of the order. A 1.70 G-F is .59 above Rickey's career 1.11 mark and even 1.26 above Rickey's next worst 1.44 mark way back in 1988 (ESPN doesn't provide G-F data prior to 1987). However Rickey's 4.39 #P/PA is also at last year's mark, and a .16 walk rate, while down from Rickey's .20 career norm, is still nicely above average; Rickey's .75 contact rate, down .03 from last year, is responsible for Rickey's generally dropping BA. Rickey still deserves a major league roster spot, but expecting more than a meager roto contribution as a fifth outfielder or DH will leave your team short quantitatively. You should probably wait to see if Rickey will see an extended stretch of playing time at some point before looking to trade Rickey.
May Underachiever: Tony Clark, 1B Previous Underachievers: April: Trot Nixon, OF
He hasn't hit less than 13 homers since 1997, but he's dramatically decreased his production since a very hot April. We expected an increase in SLG, but his current .355 is the worst mark of his career. While his G-F(1.49 '02; 1.40 career) doesn't look too poor, he was down to 1.09 last year, unfortunately the only time in the last seven years he's been below 1.45. An increase in his BB:K(.70 '02; .63 career), walk rate(.15 '02; .11 career), and a now career-high #P/PA(4.15 '02; 3.96 career) offsets a drop in his contact rate(.79 '02; .83 career), so Durham's clearly maintaining or even improving his plate discipline. With an excellent 89% SB%, he remains one of the top basestealers in the league, so unless you think he's liable to lose playing time before either a trade or free agent departure at the end of the season, wait to see if he'll regain his power stroke in addition to his helpful speed.
May Underachiever: Royce Clayton, SS Previous Underachievers: April: Carlos Lee, OF
Diaz is one of the weaker offensive catchers in the majors, but a .217 BA and .587 OPS suggest they'll look to upgrade this position in the near future. Top prospect Victor Martinez is likely another year away despite fantastic AA stats, including excellent plate discipline, so they might just need to stay with Diaz for the remainder of this season. They can likely expect a respectable surge of production in the second half as while he's still a hacker according to his walk rate(.07 '02; .05 career), improvement in his BB:K(.86 '02; .50 career), contact rate(.92 '02; .90 career), and the best #P/PA(3.61 '02; 3.34 career) by over .20 #P/PA in any full season of work suggests he's developed strike zone judgment. Although his BA doesn't reflect the improvement, I see no reason why he can't approach .300 for the balance of the year to finish above .250. I'm more concerned about his G-F(1.62 '02; 1.29 career), as 1998 was the only other season that he was over his career G-F mark. Don't expect power development, but if you need cheap BA help, you should look to acquire Diaz now.
May Underachiever: Brady Anderson, OF Previous Underachievers: April: Ricky Gutierrez, 2B
Three teams in the past two years have fallen under Truby's evil spell, as teams keep wanting him to start at third (although two teams obviously didn't want him at all). An already poor skills' set has crossed into truly abhorrent this year as he's posted one of the worst combinations of BB:K(.13 '02; .24 pre-'02), walk rate(.03 '02; .06 pre-'02), #P/PA(3.38 '02; 3.47 pre-'02), and contact rate(.75 '02; .86 pre-'02) in the majors. His power potential is the only reason to roster him, and a rising G-F(.88 '02; .75 pre-'02) indicates he's also losing his home run abilities. While he may not be the devil incarnate, I see no reason to own Truby at this time; deal him at your first opportunity if you find anyone interested.
May Underachiever: Craig Paquette, 3B/UT Previous Underachievers: April: Jose Macias, 2B/OF
Knoblauch went on the DL June 6th with a strained left forearm, and no seems to expect him back until at least Independence Day. Before his injury, he may have been the worst everyday player in the majors to keep starting, and only Jason Tyner contributed less to help his team win when considering their positions. However all his skills remain near his career averages, including his BB:K(.93 '02; 1.11 career) and contact rate(.90 '02; .87 career); his walk rate(.09 '02; .13 career) and #P/PA(3.77 '02; 3.84 career) are both his worst marks since 1994 but remain close to his career norms, and his G-F(1.28 '02; 1.31 career) is the highest since 1995 despite appearing at his average mark. Knoblauch turns 34 in July, and perhaps the combination of slight deterioration in all these skills has forced Knoblauch past what Malcolm Gladwell called the "Tipping Point" in his book The Tipping Point: How Little Things Can Make a Big Difference. Rob Neyer recently conducted an interview with Gladwell on ESPN.com that provides some additional insight as to how his work applies to baseball. In short, Gladwell theorizes that "sometimes big changes follow from small events…and can happen very quickly"; the actual "Tipping Point" is the peak of any building epidemic. Might Knoblauch's past fielding struggles, combined with age, injury, and growing batting difficulty, have caused him to suddenly lose the ability to hit a baseball at the major league level? We're unfortunately forced to question his views as he states in the interview that he has "turned on baseball, and now loathes the game…Because it has become ridiculous. Realistically, at least half of the teams in the majors (if not more) have no chance of ever winning the World Series, except if they are willing to bankrupt themselves for a one- or two-year run." Anyone who reads our work regularly knows the absurdity of this concept, and as I believe someone on Baseball Primer mentioned when the interview was published, Gladwell's opinion is a clear indication of the success of Selig's increasingly bizarre anti-marketing campaign. I similarly don't believe that the "Tipping Point" theory applies to Chuck this year as age and injury alone can explain the almost .200 drop in OPS from last year's poor .690 and almost .300 point drop of his career mark. When he returns, Kansas City will either play him every day because of his salary or trade him to a contender, so he's likely to receive the at-bats necessary to salvage his season. With the likelihood of extended playing time once he returns, combined with his still solid batting skill and 100% SB%, I'm comfortable recommending you acquire Knoblauch as long as you can leave him reserved until after he returns.
May Underachiever: Raul Ibanez, DH Previous Underachievers: April: Brent Mayne, C
The Twins' first place standing is quite impressive considering the weak production of Guzman, Koskie, and Ortiz, but Ortiz has an OPS over 100 points below Koskie. However Ortiz has only experienced minute skill deterioration, maintaining his BB:K(.55 '02; .57 career) and walk rate(.12 '02; .13 career) while increasing his #P/PA(4.22 '02; 4.06 career) and contact rate(.79 '02; .77 career); a lowered G-F(.85 '02; .96 career) even indicates his power should be increasing. You should expect his OPS to increase at least to his .785 career mark by the end of the season, so you should acquire Ortiz if you need power.
May Underachiever: Doug Mientkiewicz, 1B Previous Underachievers: April: Cristian Guzman, SS
Spencer's depressed power this year appears attributable to his inconsistent playing time. I see little wrong with his skills as he's posting career-best marks in BB:K(.46 '02; .39 career), walk rate(.10 '02; .08 career), and #P/PA(4.01 '02; 3.85 career) while maintaining his contact rate(.78 '02; .79 career) and almost returning to his average G-F(.89 '02; .82 career) after a career-worst 1.03 last year. He's certainly not a great player but I fail to understand why he's not in the lineup whenever the Yankees play a left-hander. If you suspect his playing time will ever stabilize in a more regular role, he's likely worth the gamble to acquire for a hopefully minimal price.
May Underachiever: Nick Johnson, 1B/DH Previous Underachievers: April: Bernie Williams, OF
Dye's .418 SLG is practically as bad as his .417 mark prior (I know I could write "mark before" but this will cause more search engine hits) to his trade to Oakland last year; he's been at .526 or better in 1999, 2000, and 2001 after joining the Athletics. With a respectable BB:K(.54 '02; .45 career) and career-best walk rate(.13 '02; .09 career), #P/PA(4.18 '02; 3.79 career), and G-F(1.00 '02; 1.21 career), I see no reason why he shouldn't begin dramatically increasing his production. His only problem is a weak contact rate(.76 '02; .81 career), and since aside from last season, he only averages a .021 OPS improvement in the second half, I'm slightly concerned that the higher strikeout percentage will keep his averages low. However Dye's more likely to return to a performance level in line with his recent history, making him a very attractive target to immediately acquire.
May Underachiever: Terrence Long, OF Previous Underachievers: April: Ramon Hernandez, C
His four-homer game has nicely obscured his weak contribution to the Mariners' offense. Fortunately his solid four-category production somewhat offsets his successful category kill in BA. Looking at his skills, we find him either holding or improving his BB:K(.49 '02; .49 career), walk rate(.14 '02; .14 career), and #P/PA(4.10 '02; 4.04 career); his G-F(.80 '02; .91 career) also appears decent, and while he was down to .64 last year, he's still at his second-best career G-F. The problem here, as with Dye, is an awful contact rate(.68 '02; .73 career); he followed a .67 contact rate in April with a more promising .71 mark in May, but he's down under .65 thus far in June. Cameron was stuck at a career-high .267 BA the last two years with a .73 contact rate both years. Don't expect him to break .240 this season, so if you need to help your BA, he's probably someone you should deal as long as you receive value for his four-category contribution while discounting his BA as much as possible.
May Underachiever: Bret Boone, 2B Previous Underachievers: April: Jeff Cirillo, 3B
He's not really underachieving, but on a team with only Aubrey Huff and Randy Winn above a .755 OPS and no one over .840, Tampa needs more than a .297 OBP from Abernathy; we also expected poor seasons from most of his teammates. All of his skills have deteriorated from his already fairly shallow statistical debut last year; I'm not sure which troubles me the most between his BB:K(.54 '02; .77 '01), walk rate(.06 '02; .09 '01), #P/PA(3.46 '02; 3.53 '01), contact rate(.88 '02; .90 '01), and G-F(1.42 '02; 1.04 '01). The sharp rise in G-F indicates negative power development, and the worse plate discipline reduces his SB opportunities. If you have the opportunity to deal the likely inexpensive Abernathy to a rebuilding team for help now, feel free to move him without regrets.
May Underachiever: Toby Hall, C Previous Underachievers: April: Greg Vaughn, OF
John Hart's biggest mistake this off-season was in dealing Darren Oliver, at least a normally reliable innings' eater, for the more expensive and unnecessary Carl Everett. The Carlos Pena trade grabbed Oakland OF and 1B prospects (Ludwick and Hart) to add to their existing OF and 1B prospects (Mench and Hafner). Acquiring one or two AAAA hitters, like a Mike Kinkade, would have enabled them to start Greer, Catalanotto, and Kapler every day without worrying about job sharing; either a minor league veteran or prospect would always be available to cover in case of injury. Now Texas is still left with an extra starting position player on the bench, and they're only spared this "problem" regularly due to injuries to Everett, Juan Gonzalez, Palmeiro, and Cat. I've repeatedly read articles by national columnists stating that Kapler can't be traded because no team would accept his $3M+ contract for next year; apparently the senile reporters' lobby remains quite strong if they can keep such "reporters" employed. Gabe Kapler won't even turn 27 until August, maintains much better plate discipline than older players like Geoff Jenkins and Preston Wilson, and owns a still-dropping G-F(.89 '02; 1.07 career) that indicates significant immediate power potential. While he's never reached 500 at-bats in the past due to injury, he won't even hit 400 AB this year when he's been relatively healthy. His contact rate(.85 '02; .85 career) and #P/PA(3.71 '02; 3.77 career) have remained steady despite erosion of his BB:K(.32 '02; .67 career) and his walk rate(.05 '02; .10 career); Kapler's maintained his batting skill but is losing plate discipline since he needs to hit to stay in the lineup. The Rangers' unconscionable stubbornness regarding his playing time likely has decreased his trade value, but there's no reason for you not to acquire Kapler upon any trade or roster move returning him to regular playing time.
May Underachiever: Frank Catalanotto, 2B/OF Previous Underachievers: April: Carl Everett, OF
Cruz has returned to his previous SB production level as he'll likely finish with around a dozen steals, around twenty below last season's 32; we're not too surprised considering he'd never grabbed more than 15 bags in the majors before last year. Since there've been little to no changes in his BB:K(.48 '02; .48 career), walk rate(.12 '02; .12 career), #P/PA(3.83 '02; 3.76 career), or contact rate(.75 '02; .75 career), we know his plate discipline's remained at his previous level. His G-F(.99 '02; 1.03 career) has only fallen .15 despite dropping for three straight years. The steady ratios strongly suggest that his weak BA is normal variance for someone with his skills; expect a minimum .250 BA and at least a .050 OPS jump over the balance of the season. Aside from the SB decrease, our expectations of his performance this year haven't changed. He remains a target to acquire for four-category help who shouldn't hurt you in BA.
May Underachiever: Raul Mondesi, OF Previous Underachievers: April: Darren Fletcher, C
While we've certainly appreciated the positive feedback we've received on these topics, we're also interested in any questions, concerns, or even displeasure with this format. This setup allows me to cover a significant numbers of players each week - sixty guys, not counting the LPR ratings or Challenge commentary. However I'm also not easily able to comment on trends unless I have extra time in the Rx. If there's anything you'd like changed regarding the format of this column during the season, please write us with your comments at the e-mail address listed below. We consider all input when making changes to the site and also try to respond to almost every e-mail in a timely fashion. So if you have any suggestions that you believe would enhance this column, let us know and we'll try to incorporate your ideas in the future.
Click
here to read the previous article.
Please e-mail your comments to
tim@rotohelp.com. |
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