Today's Fantasy Rx

Today, our June roto prospect series concludes with NL pitchers.

Note: For those of you unfamiliar with FAAB, each team normally has $100 to spend throughout the year on all free agent pickups. Most injury replacements or speculative picks go for a buck or two, hot starters go for $5-$10, top prospects go in the $10-$30 range, and we've seen $90+ bids on top players traded into the league, as well as selected call-ups.

Arizona: John Patterson, 24, RHP Starter
3-4 on 44:17 K:BB in 46 IP over 7 GS(8G) with 46 H, 7 HR, and a 4.30 ERA at AAA Tucson(PCL).

Yes, this is the same John Patterson who Arizona signed as a loophole free agent after the draft in 1996. He ascended to top prospect status before Tommy John surgery, and now he's working his way back with some rather impressive AAA numbers after a couple mostly wasted seasons. His command, dominance, and hittability all place him back on the prospect track now, as only his elevated HR/9 suggest future problems. If he maintains these rates, he'll nicely slide in as a very capable third starter after the best top of the rotation in baseball history. Definitely look to FAAB him when he's likely called up later in the season if you need any starting help.

Atlanta: Doug Linton, 37, RHP Starter
4-4 on 74:13 K:BB in 79 IP over 13 GS with 66 H, 4 HR, and a 1.48 ERA at AAA Richmond(IL).

Joey Dawley has now lowered his ERA to 2.29 to go with his nearly impeccable skills' set of 4.6 K:BB, 9.9 K/9, .7 HR/9, and 6.5 H/9. Of course, with Albie Lopez remaining in the bullpen due to Atlanta's excess of Hall of Famers and young potential studs, there's no room for a thirty-year-old journyman. A starter-needy team should offer the Braves a decent left-handed bat for 1B and the OF; the White Sox could offer someone like Jeff Liefer, and Atlanta would probably even add an A-ball prospect in return.

While Linton hasn't been quite as dominant as Dawley, he's probably the best of all 37-year-old veteran pitchers starting in AAA. He never demonstrated his excellent career minor league skills in his nearly 300 IP of major league action. Fortunately some desperate team might give him a chance, and anyone with a 5.7 K:BB, 8.4 K/9, .5 HR/9, and 7.5 H/9 deserves a five-start major league tryout. He's very high risk due to his age and the low likelihood any team would keep him rostered this winter, but he might help for a couple starts, and you'll likely only need a buck of FAAB to get him.

Chicago Cubs: Will Cunnane, 28, RHP Reliever
2-0 on 37:12 K:BB in 42 IP over 21 G with 38 H, 1 HR, and a 3.12 ERA at AAA Iowa(PCL).

Now with Prior in the majors and Cruz and Zambrano in the Cubs' bullpen, Courtney Duncan and Pat Mahomes are back in AAA despite solid minor league numbers this year. Scott Chiasson, who we acquired with Miguel Cairo last year for Eric Hinske because we didn't want to use Chiasson in mop-up duty all year, is allowing both too many hits and homers. While Chris Gissell has compiled solid skills, his ERA is 5.17 and the Cubs really don't need another starter in the majors. They've discussed promoting lefty Steve Smyth from AA in the near future, and while he's seeing success, so are Matt Bruback, Dave Hooten, and Rick Palma; all four could benefit from at least a half season of AAA time.

When the Cubs open a roster spot by dealing Bere, Duncan and Mahomes will likely receive the first major league opportunities over the more deserving Cunnane. I've hyped him in the past, but he's displayed passable skills in the majors and excellent skills throughout his minor league career. He'd give Baylor a veteran arm for the middle innings and might even grab a couple of cheap save opportunities. However since I don't expect the organization to trust him in that role, you should probably ignore a potential call-up unless you're in the deepest of leagues and desperately need a decent middle reliever.

Cincinnati: Luke Hudson, 25, RHP Starter
4-6 on 69:28 K:BB in 69.2 IP over 12 GS with 61 H, 5 HR, and a 4.52 ERA at AAA Louisville(IL).

Some team should attempt to add Trever Miller if they need a quality lefty, and Jose Acevedo's pitching fairly decently, but Hudson's overall skills are better. Aside from the Dennys Reyes-for-Gabe White exchange, Hudson was the major bounty for Pokey Reese. The Rockies should severely regret that move, as they lost a capable starter, downgraded their middle relief, dealt Reese for the superior Scott Hatteberg but then lost Hatteberg when they failed to reach a deal prior to arbitration. Hudson's maintained a K:BB of 2.1 or better in the four years following his debut season in 1998, and now he's dominating AAA hitters as he did in A-ball batters. I wouldn't object to him spending another two months at AAA, but when he's promoted, I see no reason for him not to pitch effectively immediately. Look to spend a few bucks of FAAB to grab Hudson when the Reds need another starter.

Colorado: Ryan Cameron, 24, RHP Swingman
3-3 on 69:23 K:BB in 54.1 IP over 15 G(7GS) with 32 H, 3 HR, and a 2.48 ERA at AA Carolina(EL).

Aside from Matt Whiteside, who I discussed last month, no one remaining at AAA appears to deserve a call-up right now. Fortunately AA Carolina is one of the most prospect-laden teams in the minors, and they have several interesting pitching prospects. Cameron owns the best skills' set this year, although he's both old for the league and repeating the level. He's holding a 1.01 ratio with 11.4 K/9, both numbers that indicate he deserves a promotion. However I'll likely remain wary of all Colorado pitchers until they establish themselves in Coors like John Thomson or Jason Jennings; ignore Cameron until he has at least a month in the majors.

Florida: Blaine Neal, 24, RHP Reliever
10 Saves on 19:9 K:BB in 23.2 IP over 21 G with 23 H, 2 HR, and a 3.80 ERA at AAA Calgary(PCL).

I almost discussed minor league veteran lefty Tommy Phelps but decided to review Neal since he has more immediate promise. While his 7.2 K/9 is much lower than we'd like, he remains the Marlins' best long-term option for saves, and we expect his K/9 to approach 9 after a year or two in the majors. He's maintained LIMA-quality skills in every year of full-season ball, so you should feel comfortable in bidding a few bucks of FAAB on a likely consistent middle reliever with a significant future opportunity for saves.

Houston: Kirk Saarloos, 23, RHP Starter
10-1 on 82:21 K:BB in 83.1 IP over 13 GS with 59 H, 2 HR, and a 1.40 ERA at AA Round Rock(TL).

The Astros have several major league-ready pitchers at AAA, but Saarloos is the hottest prospect in the minors right now, and we haven't devoted any space to him until now. They also just promoted him to AA, and we're already regretting not FAABing him in our one open-FAAB keeper league. John Sickels, in the Stats 2002 Minor League Scouting Notebook, provided the following comments on him:

Houston drafted Saarloos out of Cal State Fullerton in the third round last year. "Saarloos" sounds like some sort of Star Trek alien, as in "the ambassadors from Vulcan, Andor, Tellar and Saarloos were arguing over the dilithium crystals on Coridan." Anyway, Saarloos doesn't have a brilliant fastball, but his slider is good and his changeup is outstanding. He should have a career as a middle man."

Also remember that Round Rock is one of the best hitters' parks in baseball, allowing us a fairly good comparison of AA Houston pitching prospects to major league competition. While Saarloos may not be able to duplicate the success of Roy Oswalt last season, he appears at least likely to mirror the rise of Wade Miller. To quote BA's Prospect Handbook, "Saarloos never should be underestimated." FAAB him immediately upon a call-up at the necessary price; he shouldn't hurt you this year and could dominate in the future.

Los Angeles: Kevin Beirne, 28, RHP Starter
6-1 on 59:25 K:BB in 80 IP over 14 GS with 81 H, 7 HR, and a 4.05 ERA at AAA Las Vegas(PCL).

Kevin Brown's injury leaves the Dodgers without an available sixth starter unless they want to promote their closer, thereby throwing every NL or mixed roto league into chaos. Of potential candidates at AAA, Beirne owns the best statistics in terms of skills, ERA, and record. He performed adequately with the White Sox from the bullpen in 2000, compiling a 41:20 K:BB I 49.2 IP with 50 H, but 9 HR allowed left him with a 6.70 ERA. Throughout his minor league career, he's continually run into both gopherball problems and bouts of weak command and hittability, so his success as a starter at Las Vegas is quite encouraging. He's a high-risk acquisition, but we might take the chance on any Dodgers' starter for a couple bucks of FAAB.

Milwaukee: Jimmy Osting, 25, LHP Starter
3-5 on 60:25 K:BB in 73 IP over 13 GS with 71 H, 3 HR, and a 3.70 ERA at AAA Indianapolis(IL).

Osting fell from top Atlanta prospect to trade bait and then to waiver bait over the last three years after Atlanta promoted him far too quickly from A-ball to AAA. Given that his first extended success occurred in 1999 at A Macon, instead of 34.2 IP at AAA and 2 IP in the majors over the last two years, he should have spent a year each at A+ and AA, placing him on target to reach the majors next season. Now he's beginning to dominate hitters again, and while he's benefiting from the generally pitched-friendly International League, a 2.4 K:BB, 7.4 K/9, .4 HR/9, and 8.8 H/9 re-establish him as a solid prospect. I expect Milwaukee to place him on the 40-man roster later this summer if he maintains his current pace and they need a starter. There's little reason he won't see rather immediate success, and if they expect him to stay in the rotation for a while, we'll certainly be involved in any FAAB bidding for him.

Montreal: Zach Day, 23, RHP Starter
4-5 on 50:25 K:BB in 68 IP over 12 GS(13G) with 55 H, 3 HR, and a 3.84 ERA at AAA Ottawa(IL).

Montreal dealt Milton Bradley to Cleveland to acquire Day at the deadline last season, and while he's not dominating at AAA, he's establishing himself as a logical candidate for the big league rotation either in the second half or in 2003. Day turns 24 on Saturday, and while I'd like to see improvement in both his 2.0 K:BB and 6.6 K/9, a .4 HR/9 and 7.3 H/9 both suggest that no one's hitting particularly well against him. He'll remain relatively high risk until he begins striking out more batters, but we'll remain willing to drop a couple bucks of FAAB here upon his eventual promotion.

New York Mets: John Bale, 28, LHP Swingman
2-2 on 27:7 K:BB in 28 IP over 12 G(2GS) with 22 H, 2 HR, and a 3.54 ERA at AAA Norfolk(IL).

Bale, who the Orioles foolishly discarded to the Mets for Gary Matthews, soon should team with Jaime Cerda in Shea to give the Mets one of the best left-handed reliever duos in baseball, possibly even making some of the New York faithful easily move past the loss of John Franco. Norfolk has several pitchers performing at a very high level, including Cerda, Mark Corey, Pat Strange, Tyler Walker, and Tyler Yates, but Bale's the most prepared to contribute given that Mark Guthrie is the Mets' only current lefty reliever besides Bobby M. Jones. Bale has fairly dominated at most of his stops in the past, including a 91:16 K:BB in 62.1 IP at AA Knoxville in 1999, and a 41:5 K:BB in 30.2 IP at AAA Rochester last year. I don't expect him to start in the majors, and he probably won't close, but he'll provide you with a cheap, low-risk option in a good pitchers' park for a minimum of FAAB.

Philadelphia: Joe Roa, 30, RHP Starter
9-0 on 52:11 K:BB in 74 IP over 12 GS with 67 H, 2 HR, and a 2.19 ERA at AAA Scranton/Wilkes-Barre(IL).

I'm tempted to just discuss Brett Myers again this month but Philly also has a few decent prospects and solid journeymen in their upper minors. Roa has displayed excellent command at AAA for the last several years, including a ridiculous 81:12 K:BB at AAA Calgary last season; however he needed 124 IP to compile those strikeouts, illustrating his major skill problem. He barely strikes out anyone, and despite a career 2.8 K:BB in the minors, he's stuck with a poor 4.9 K/9; a 9.2 H/9 doesn't help him much, and a .7 HR/9 only helps him keep his ERA around 3.50 most of the time. In 73 major league innings, he's only struck out 34 batters while allowing 25 walks and 99 hits in thirty games, albeit with only four starts, so there's no reason to trust him on your fantasy team. He may surprise if given an extended chance at starting, but I'd still ignore any promotion until he finally starts posting adequate skills in the majors.

Pittsburgh: Salomon Torres, 30, RHP Starter
3-2 on 64:20 K:BB in 81.2 IP over 12 GS(13G) with 82 H, 5 HR, and a 3.09 ERA at AAA Nashville(PCL).

Since I don't know when I'll have the chance to discuss him again, we'll see if this former top prospect can make it back to the majors. Dusty Baker shattered his confidence by starting him on the last day of the 1993 season, letting the Dodgers demolish the then-21-year-old Torres and costing the Giants their 104th win and a one-game playoff with Atlanta. After over another season of terrible pitching, they at least partially redeemed Dusty's error by shipping Torres to Seattle for the relatively unknown Shawn Estes. Torres hasn't pitched in the majors since 1997 but wowed some scouts in Spring Training, almost winning a spot in the Pittsburgh rotation. Now he's pitching very effectively in AAA and might even deserve a call-up, mainly to see if he can pitch decently for a few weeks and the Pirates can send him to Cincinnati or the White Sox for an A-ball prospect. You should likely ignore Torres since he's one of the most risky pitchers in the game for a fantasy owner to pick-up, although occasionally check his progress since he impressed a lot of people about a decade ago.

San Diego: Jason Kershner, 25, LHP Swingman
4-1 on 50:19 K:BB in 51.2 IP over 20 G(7GS) with 38 H, 3 HR, and a 2.79 ERA at AAA Portland(PCL).

When the Padres no longer need Kevin Barker due to the return of Burroughs or Nevin and if they just want to promote a quality pitcher without rushing any of their prospects, Kershner should be very high on their list. He's never posted a K:BB at any level lower than 2.2, and his 2.6 mark this year is right in line with his 2.5 career number. After a career of mostly starting, he's finally beginning to dominate hitters from the bullpen; his 8.7 K/9 is his best season-long ratio since his rookie year in 1995. The Padres could trade Alan Embree to a lefty-needy contender for prospects, replace him with Kershner, and likely lose little overall effectiveness from their bullpen. A FAAB of Kershner likely would be a specialty play designed to lower your team's ERA and WHIP at minimal cost, but I expect him to succeed if given the opportunity.

San Francisco: Jerome Williams, 20, RHP Starter
2-2 on 31:4 K:BB in 25 IP over 4 GS with 23 H, 3 HR, and a 3.24 ERA at AAA Fresno(PCL).

Although Ainsworth continues to dominate in the PCL, Ryan Jensen has only occasionally suffered a disaster, allowing the Giants to keep Ainsworth in the minors. San Francisco has a few other pitching prospects at AAA, but neither Jeff Urban nor Jeff Verplancke are demonstrating the skill level of Jerome Williams. I believe the contracts of Tim Worrell and Jay Witasick expire after this season, and Frisco should likely promote Williams to the bullpen, allowing him to build his arm strength against the best possible competition. They've done a good job of babying his arm so far as he threw 130 IP last year and 125.2 the year before, but more than 150 this year or 170 next year would increase his injury risk. His K/9(6.4 '02; 7.2 career) is also fairly weak, so a year or two in the bullpen would also allow him to dominate more hitters. He'll still succeed when promoted, and there's little reason not to spend several bucks of FAAB on the player most analysts consider as the top Giants' prospect, but remain wary of potential injuries due to his youth.

St. Louis: Travis Smith, 29, RHP Starter
2-4 on 33:6 K:BB in 47.1 IP over 7 GS with 36 H, 3 HR, and a 1.71 ERA at AAA Memphis(PCL).
1-0 on 19:13 K:BB in 25.2 IP over 4 GS(6G) with 26 H, 6 HR, 42-23 G-F, and an 8.06 ERA in St. Louis.

In four starts earlier this season, Smith posted a 2550 PQS log, indicating definite potential if left alone in the rotation. Unfortunately for him, the Cardinals have several better starting options, and even five superior ones all healthy right now. His main problem was control difficulties that both raised his walk rate and severely increased his homer rate. He's certainly putting up some excellent numbers in AAA, and while he'll never be an overly dominant pitcher, he could help fill out a rotation on some teams for a couple of years. Only give him another chance this year if a few St. Louis starters hit the DL and they need to give him a long look; ignore him if he only sees a couple of spot starts.

Internet Challenge

Starters(6)
Randy Johnson: Sat:DET(Bernero)
Pedro Martinez: Fri:@ATL(Millwood)
Curt Schilling: Fri:DET(Maroth)
Roger Clemens: Sat:@NYM(Estes)
Matt Morris: Fri:KC(Ascencio)
Javier Vazquez: Sun:TOR(Parris?)
Barry Zito: Sun:@SF(Rueter)
Kerry Wood: Sun:CHW(Ritchie)
Eric Gagne: 3 Home vs. Anaheim.

No starts: Mussina, Oswalt, Lawrence.

Relievers(4)
Jason Isringhausen: 3 Home vs. Kansas City.
Byung-Hyun Kim: 3 Home vs. Detroit.
Mike Williams: 3 Road at Cincinnati.
Eddie Guardado: 3 Road at Milwaukee.
Jorge Julio: 3 Road at Philadelphia.

Given Izzy's potential injury problems and the relatively easy opposition, we'll sit him this weekend to open up more money elsewhere. Randy and Schilling are both necessities, and we like Morris, Vazquez, Wood, and of course Gagne to round out our pitching; we'll consider Zito if we need to cut a little cap space.

It's also time to replace Toby Hall so we'll add A.J. Pierzynski as a free agent, costing us only 140 of cap space.

Since we're running our two most expensive starters, despite running our Rockies at home, we still need to cut more salary since we don't want Durazo active as Arizona faces two lefties. We'll deploy Klesko and Rollins instead of Helton and Durazo, hopefully balancing out the higher-quality at-bats with more production. We also don't want to sit ARod in Houston, and while we have to leave Sosa, Bonds, and Vlad on the bench, we'll risk problems on offense to hold our ground in strikeouts.

The Umpire Hunter
Week 11b: June 14-June 16

C 	Jorge Posada		990
C	A.J. Pierzynski		460
1B	Jason Giambi		1640
1B	Ryan Klesko		1300
2B	Luis Castillo		1000
2B	Alfonso Soriano		900
3B	Eric Chavez		1070
3B	Shea Hillenbrand	450
SS	Alex Rodriguez		1880
SS	Jimmy Rollins		940
OF	Larry Walker		1530
OF	Ichiro Suzuki		1330
OF	Lance Berkman		1320
OF	Juan Pierre		1180
OF	J.D. Drew		1010
OF	Adam Dunn		710
DH	Daryle Ward		620
DH	Juan Uribe		500

SP	Randy Johnson		1990
SP	Curt Schilling		1540
SP	Matt Morris		1190
SP	Javier Vazquez		1100
SP	Kerry Wood		1050
SP	Eric Gagne		500
RP	Byung-Hyun Kim		1200
RP	Mike Williams		900
RP	Eddie Guardado		900
RP	Jorge Julio		750

Today's Fantasy Rx: When evaluating the performance of AA pitchers, remember that the performance of any Texas League hurler generally is more impressive than prospects in other leagues. Pitchers at Round Rock, Houston's AA franchise, or Midland, Oakland's affiliate, in particular should be afforded extra consideration as both organizations generally draft college-trained talent that can rise to the majors fairly quickly. A AA pitching prospect on either team, such as Kirk Saarloos or Aaron Harang earlier in the year, can likely move past AAA rather quickly and then can likely establish himself immediately as an average pitcher at worst. Oakland's Franklyn German and Houston's Santiago Ramirez are two relievers who could move through the system rather quickly.