Today's Fantasy Rx

Today, we continue reviewing potential FAAB-worthy prospects with American League pitchers from the high minors.

Note: For those of you unfamiliar with FAAB, each team normally has $100 to spend throughout the year on all free agent pickups. Most injury replacements or speculative picks go for a buck or two, hot starters go for $5-$10, top prospects go in the $10-$30 range, and we've seen $90+ bids on top players traded into the league, as well as selected call-ups.

Anaheim: Scot Shields, 26, RHP Swingman
2-2 on 50:6 K:BB in 47 IP over 28 G(1GS) with 39 H, 5 HR, and a 3.06 ERA at AAA Salt Lake City(PCL).

Several Angels' prospects continue to excel in the hitter-friendly environment of Utah, but Shields is the only one of those posting great skills who's spent all year in the minors. After three years in the rotation, Anaheim moved him back to the bullpen, expecting him to evolve into a solid setup man. Nothing seems to have changed those plans as he's striking out over a batter per inning while demonstrating the best command of his career. When he hits the majors, you'll want to consider spending a few bucks of FAAB since Shields, aside from likely above average numbers in a setup role, may succeed Percival within the next few years.

Baltimore: Lesli Brea, 28(?), RHP Reliever
1-6 on 36:13 K:BB in 35.1 IP over 24 G with 39 H, 3 HR, and a 3.57 ERA at AAA Rochester(IL).

John Stephens ERA is now down to 2.15, and I see no reason why Baltimore hasn't promoted him to the major league rotation, since despite a fastball that scouts reportedly mock on a regular basis, he has nothing to prove in the minors. However, Brea also continues to impress with an excellent K:BB(2.8 '02; 2.8 '01) although his K/9(9.2 '02; 10.8 '01) has slipped slightly. I don't understand why Baltimore kept Rick Bauer or Chris Brock on the Opening Day roster when Brea clearly deserved the promotion after last season. While I don't expect Brea to figure in the saves' mix this year, he shouldn't hurt you if you need to FAAB an injury replacement for a buck.

Boston: Tim Young, 28, LHP Reliever
1-1 on 36:14 K:BB in 40 IP over 28 G with 28 H, 2 HR, and a 2.48 ERA at AAA Pawtucket(IL).

Boston seems intent on cycling through as many left-handed relievers as needed until they find a suitable bullpen. After spending last year in Japan, Young returned to the States, building on previous AAA success that included a 77:26 K:BB in 78 IP with 61 H and 6 HR. Montreal and Boston allowed him to pitch all of 13 IP between 1998 and 2000, but after this year's success, I fail to comprehend why he's not in the majors. When eventually promoted, he'll have the same chance to vulture wins as all other Boston pitchers, and he shouldn't hurt you for a buck or two of FAAB.

Chicago White Sox: Edwin Almonte, 25, RHP Reliever
12 Saves on 27:6 K:BB in 27.1 IP over 24 G with 26 H, 4 HR, and a 3.29 ERA at AAA Charlotte(IL).

With Keith Foulke's demotion from the closer job and the likely pending injury to Antonio Osuna, who always seems to hit the DL right when he can grab some saves, Almonte might be needed in Chicago sooner than expected. After a year of excellent relief work, including a 62:16 K:BB in 66.1 IP with 58 H and only 4 HR at AA Birmingham, Almonte's jumped to AAA and remains roughly on pace for similar numbers, along with potentially matching his 36 saves from last year. Minor league closers don't normally evolve into major league closers, but Almonte should definitely emerge as a vital part of the White Sox bullpen within the next year. If you're executing a low-risk pitching strategy like the LIMA plan, you should definitely FAAB him upon a promotion, since he's likely to both contribute quality innings and grab both saves and some vultured wins.

Cleveland: Dave Maurer, 27, LHP Reliever
2-0 on 28:11 K:BB in 32 IP over 15 G(2GS) with 18 H, 3 HR, and a 1.69 ERA at AAA Buffalo(IL).

I also like Jason Beverlin a lot, but Cleveland's starting pitching has been rather solid this year; a potential Ricardo Rincon trade opens up an opportunity for either Heath Murray or Maurer. He pitched very solidly in a brief trial for San Diego in 2000, compiling a 1-0 record with a 13:5 K:BB in 14.2 IP with 15 H and 2 HR, but they cut him loose last year after only five innings. He's always pitched effectively in AAA aside from occasional bouts with gopheritis. Maurer also lacked a noticeable platoon split in his major league time, so we can't assume from his stats that he'd be an effective left-handed specialist. Given the problems with Cleveland's offense and their likely impatience with journeyman lefties, even if he starts off strong, you should likely ignore him in roto.

Detroit: Tim Kalita, 23, LHP Starter
1-8 on 40:19 K:BB in 72.1 IP over 12 GS with 74 H, 7 HR, and a 3.86 ERA at AAA Toledo(IL).

Following the promotions of Mud Hen standouts Adam Bernero and Mike Maroth, Kalita is the next most capable starter. His record is rather shocking considering he's displayed adequate command with a solid H/9 and a .9 HR/9, a decent improvement over last year's 1.1; he tied for the Eastern League lead in homers allowed in 2001, but also pitched 200 IP at age 23. I'm growing rather concerned over his rising workload, and even hopefully low pitch counts, due to his great 2.4 BB/9, won't keep him from burning out. Detroit will likely leave him down until he increases his 5.0 K/9 closer to last season's 6.6 K/9, so don't expect him in the majors unless they suffer additional injuries. Unless he displays more ability to dominate hitters, he'll have trouble keeping his ERA below 5.00 in the majors, so you should probably ignore Kalita unless he starts strong with good supporting skills.

Kansas City: Matt Skrmetta, 29, RHP Reliever
3-0 on 37:15 K:BB in 37.1 IP over 21 G with 27 H, 4 HR, and a 2.17 ERA at AAA Omaha(PCL).

The Royals don't have much impressive talent after a rash of injuries and promotions left only Skrmetta, Shawn Sedlacek, and Brett Laxton deserving promotional consideration. Skrmetta has an excellent track record of AAA dominance over the past five years, although he's struggled in all of 14.2 major league innings. In nine minor league seasons, he's averaged 2.2 K:BB, 8.9 K/9, .8 HR/9, and 7.5 H/9, a combination of statistics that usually merits an extended look in the majors. He could replace almost anyone in the Kansas City bullpen, likely improving the performance of the unit. Unfortunately he remains a high risk due to the Royals' tendency to only give brief tryouts to anyone making the minimum, and despite frequently available space on the 40-man roster, I don't know if they'll give him a look even in September. He'll succeed if given the opportunity, so consider a low FAAB bid in the hope he picks up some save opps.

Minnesota: Grant Balfour, 24, RHP Reliever
1-3 on 45:12 K:BB in 35 IP over 29 G with 28 H, 0 HR, and a 4.11 ERA at AAA Edmonton(PCL).

Misnamed along the lines of Homer Bush, Balfour has excellent control and has fairly dominated at AAA this year. However as Minnesota has fielded the best bullpen in baseball this year, led by the great skills of Eddie Guardado, J.C. Romero, and LaTroy Hawkins, the Twins won't rush to bring up Balfour. When they finally promote him, I see no reason why he can't spend several years in the majors, even potentially as a closer at some point. I don't see any harm in spending a buck or two of FAAB on him.

New York Yankees: Brian Rogers, 25, RHP Starter
6-3 on 42:19 K:BB in 53.2 IP over 10G(9GS) with 55 H, 5 HR, and a 4.70 ERA at AAA Columbus(IL).

A Yankee prospect so heralded Baseball America didn't even place him in their top 30 pre-season list, Rogers advanced to AAA after two relatively similar AA seasons, each with specific problems. He improved his K:BB to 2.4 from 1.9 in 2000, and while his strikeout rate also increased to 7.6 last year, he allowed more than twice as many homers and more than a hit per inning. Now he's succeeding in the more difficult environment of Columbus, and while he'll likely need a trade to see any extended major league action, he's far more prepared for immediate major league play than a teammate like Brandon Claussen. A smart team like the Blue Jays could pick up Rogers in a small deal and immediately place him in their rotation; I suspect he could maintain a league average ERA now, and if he maintains these ratios all year, he'll look very promising in spring drafts. While I wouldn't trust him in relief, look to FAAB him if he seems likely to see an extended look in the majors with any team.

Oakland: Matt J. Miller, 30, RHP Reliever
3 Saves on 32:11 K:BB in 34.1 IP over 25 G with 39 H, 4 HR, and a 3.15 ERA at AAA Sacramento(PCL).

Now that Chad Harville's hit the DL with elbow problems, Miller deserves a promotion more than any other River Cat; he'd help the Athletics more than either of the remaining ineffective relievers. I highlighted Miller a few times in Spring Training as someone receiving plenty of opportunities to finish games. With both Harville and Bert Snow injured, he's started to close for Sacramento, and I see no reason why he couldn't provide the A's with another effective middle reliever. Ignore his age and focus on his excellent skills, and you'll understand why I recommend you FAAB Miller if you need a reliever.

Seattle: Aquilino Lopez, 21, RHP Reliever
2-0 on 39:13 K:BB in 39 IP over 15 G(3 GS) with 24 H, 2 HR, and a 1.62 ERA at AAA Tacoma(PCL).

Since last month, Ken Cloude's ERA has risen over a point to a lofty 2.26 while striking out 20 in 32.2 IP. He's ready for a promotion, but so is Lopez. His numbers haven't been quite identical from season to season, but here's his pattern: now in his fourth professional season, he's never finished with a K:BB worse than his current 3.0. He's never been demoted, spending an entire season at A- Everett, A Seattle, and AA San Antonio. In 2000, he struck out 67 batters in 68 innings; in his other three seasons, including 2001, he's struck out at least a batter per inning. His career HR/9 is .5, he's never posted a worse H/9 than 7.8 his rookie year, his career ERA is below 3.00, he's and he's maintained all these ratios while alternating between starting and relieving. Baseball America didn't even place him on the Mariners' top 30 prospects this season after he was #24 in 2001, but John Sickels said "he would be the top pitching prospect in many organizations", and that was before he dominated in AAA to the same extent as in lower levels. I'm fairly certain he was eligible for the Rule 5 draft since BA says he signed in 1997, but despite a 3.02 ERA and 79:25 K:BB in 63 IP, no one drafted him. He's therefore not even on a 40-man roster, so someone could deal a veteran for him and not have to waste a roster spot until November. When teams call Seattle to ask about dealing veteran pitching for prospects, Lopez should be the first player requested. Do not fail to grab him when he reaches the majors, and he'll reward you with high-upside, low-risk innings in any role for any team; spend your excess FAAB right here.

Tampa Bay: Travis Phelps, 24, RHP Reliever
6 Saves on 27:13 K:BB in 25.0 IP over 22 G with 25 H, 2 HR, and a 5.04 ERA at AAA Durham(IL).

After struggling with his control for all of April, Phelps put together a very good May to leave him prepared to rejoin the Rays' bullpen. With Esteban Yan failing to hold the closer's job and potentially heading out of town, and in consideration of the continuing control problems of Victor Zambrano and Jesus Colome, Phelps may be the best candidate for second half saves in the organization. His MLEs have been very impressive over the past few years, and he at least shouldn't hurt you when he's recalled. If you need saves, plan to spend several bucks of FAAB on Phelps.

Texas: Jeremi Gonzalez, 27, RHP Swingman
4-3 on 51:20 K:BB in 56 IP over 18 G(5GS) with 51 H, 4 HR, and a 3.70 ERA at AAA Oklahoma(PCL).

The former Cubs' prospect is finally staying healthy in his attempt to return to the majors. As practically every other decent Red Hawk has seen at least some time in Arlington this season, Gonzalez should get a shot in late July if a trade opens a spot on the 40-man roster. His upside is probably limited to a spot starter after his multiple surgeries, although I expect he'll be able to establish himself at least as a AAAA pitcher as long as he stays off the DL. He's a high-risk, medium-upside pitcher, and you should probably ignore his promotion.

Toronto: Mark Hendrickson, 27, LHP Starter
4-4 on 56:19 K:BB in 72.1 IP over 12 GS with 73 H, 11 HR, and a 3.73 ERA at AAA Syracuse(IL).

I profiled Chad Ricketts last month, and now he's out for the year with an injury. Hendrickson has the most upside of any "prospect" left at AAA all year, although most analysts ignore him due to his age. He's struggled with both control and dominance in the past, but teams tend to give extra chances to 6'9" left-handers for obvious reasons. Now he's returned to starting after most of a year in the AAA bullpen, and his dominance has increased while he's demonstrating easily the best command of his career. While I'm slightly concerned about the high homer rate, I also expect it to decrease as he begins to fulfill his promise. We'll look to spend a buck or two of FAAB on him despite the risk since his developing skills merit roto consideration upon his promotion.

Our June roto prospect series will conclude tomorrow with NL pitchers.

Today's Fantasy Rx: Jess is older; wish her well.

Also, after almost a complete off-day in the majors tomorrow, interleague play resumes with the weekend of traditional cross-town, interstate, and cross-state rivalries that feature some of the most interesting match-ups of the season. Then there are the long-standing rivalries between bitter enemies Cleveland and Colorado, Seattle and San Diego, and Detroit at Arizona, but we'll pay more attention to the New York-New York, LA-Anaheim, and Bay Bridge series, along with, of course, Chicago-Chicago.