Today's Fantasy Rx

Twenty-two pitchers had earned a 1 for their performance this season as of last week. Four more joined the list this week while six dropped off, bringing our total of LIMA-quality 2002 AL pitchers with at least 15 IP to only twenty AL pitchers.

Pitchers who joined the list include Juan Acevedo, Mike Stanton, John Halama, and Pete Walker.

Pitchers who dropped off the list include Kevin Appier(K/9; H/9), Casey Fossum(K/9, HR/9, H/9), Sun-Woo Kim(H/9), Ted Lilly(HR/9), Hideki Irabu(K/9, H/9, HR/9), and Roy Halladay(H/9).

Please refer here if you'd like to take another look at some of our methodology.

LPR Code Description
1 - K:BB of 2.0+, K/9 of 6.0+, HR/9 of 1.0-, and H/9 of 9.0- thus far in 2002
2 - K:BB of 2.0+, K/9 of 6.0+, HR/9 of 1.0-, and H/9 of 9.0- in the second half of 2001
3 - K:BB of 2.0+, K/9 of 6.0+, HR/9 of 1.0-, and H/9 of 9.0- in the first half of 2001
4 - K:BB of 2.0+, K/9 of 6.0+, HR/9 of 1.0-, and H/9 of 9.0- for all of 2000

a - DOM of 55% or more in 2002
b - DOM of 55% or more in 2001
c - DOM of 55% or more in 2000
x - DIS of 20% or less in 2002
y - DIS of 20% or less in 2001
z - DIS of 20% or less in 2000

(Note: I used the PQS logs from Baseball Forecaster to create these ratings, and I strongly recommend that you purchase a copy if you haven't already.

Here are the fifth set of 2002 in-season LPR ratings which include all games played through June 6th. We ranked pitchers by the highest LIMA rating and then by the best PQS rating. Starting pitchers, if necessary, are ranked by their performance over their last five starts, which I include after the pitchers name in chronological order, ending with his most recent appearance.

1234
abcxyz - Pedro Martinez(55543)

Arthur Rhodes
Mariano Rivera

All that ever seems to change in this ranking is Pedro's 5-start PQS, so once again, look to grab any of these pitchers of you have a chance. Keith Foulke is the only logical candidate to join this group, if he ever decides to stop allowing all those hits.

123
abcxyz - Roger Clemens(55045)

Appier and Halladay lose their spots here, although Halladay continues to pitch wonderfully.

124
Chad Bradford
Ugueth Urbina

Bradford may still be unowned in some leagues. There's a chance that Oakland may trade Koch if they don't get back into the race, so Chad could easily see some save opps.

134
Billy Koch
Paul Shuey
Mike Stanton

Shuey definitely has the skills to close in Cleveland if Wickman continues to experience elbow discomfort; ignore his 21/42 career save percentage, and focus on his upside. We just overpaid to grab a $1 Shuey in one league, but he'll be a great keeper at that price even if he doesn't close.

234
Keith Foulke

He's reportedly indicated a desire to start, probably because he knows that great starters make 50-100% more than great closers.

12
Kaz Sasaki

One of the most established closers in the game seems set for the next few years.

13
Buddy Groom
Steve Karsay

If you need to add likely inexpensive bullpen help, seek to pick up either pitcher.

23
abcxyz - Mike Mussina(43535)
abxyz - Tim Hudson(12244)
abxyz - Kevin Appier(54230
bcxyz - Chan Ho Park(24303)
abxy - Roy Halladay(53444)
x - Danys Baez(54334)

Eddie Guardado
Troy Percival

I even like Halladay better than Mussina, Hudson, Appier, or Park right now, and after Derek Lowe, he's probably the safest non-future Hall of Fame starter to own in the AL (i.e. not counting Clemens or Pedro). However I'd certainly be eager to acquire any of these pitchers if given the opportunity at an acceptable cost.

24
bcxyz - Bartolo Colon(34440)
cx - Paul Wilson(33242)

Dan Miceli
Todd Van Poppel

That's Colon's only DIS since the second week of the season, and that appears to be an exception more than the start of a negative trend. If Texas can ever field a healthy offense for a week or two, we expect Van Poppel to finally start vulturing some wins.

34
xy - Joe Kennedy(35123)

Randy Choate
Rich Garces
Mike Holtz
Bob Howry
David Riske

Riske is the other potential Cleveland closer, but Shuey's been a far more consistent member of that pen for a much longer time; I can't imagine anyone in Cleveland listing a good reason to give Riske the first opportunity.

1
xyz - Jarrod Washburn(25552)
x - Ryan Rupe(50344)

Juan Acevedo
John Halama
LaTroy Hawkins
Damaso Marte
J.C. Romero

Ignore Rupe's high ERA and relative lack of wins; he's still one of the most consistent high-skills' pitcher in either league. All five relievers are great buys, and we still don't believe Marte's owned in many leagues.

2
abcxyz - Barry Zito(53452)
by - Mark Mulder(01043)
xy - Freddy Garcia(53444)
b - Rolando Arrojo(35)
b - Joel Pineiro(25201)
z - Kelvim Escobar

C.C. Sabathia(24504)
Lorzeno Barcelo
Shigetoshi Hasegawa
Antonio Osuna
Lou Pote
Ricardo Rincon
B.J. Ryan
Rudy Seanez
Victor Zambrano

Zito and Garcia continue to cruise, and Escobar's pitched very well lately. Pineiro's starting to concern me, but you might want to consider picking up Arrojo if you want a high-risk, high-reward starter.

3
bxy - John Burkett(43312)
by - Tim Wakefield(453)
yz - Rick Reed(00404)
y - Andy Pettitte(500)

Gary Glover(02015)
Al Levine
Jim Mecir
Jeff Nelson
Bob Wickman
Kelly Wunsch

Reed has either registered a 4 or a 0 in every start since he began the year with a 2303 log; he generally looks like an interesting player to acquire at the moment. Burkett also will be a good buy if you expect him to maintain his consistency, hopefully continuing to receive great support for the Red Sox offense so he keeps winning.

4
ax - Derek Lowe(45534)
y - Luke Prokopec(02542)

After Texas chased Paul Byrd in the fourth inning on June 2nd, Lowe is the last AL pitcher who's started at least four games without anything lower than a 3 PQS. Mussina and Ramon Ortiz are the only other American Leaguers without a DIS start and at least four starts. Right now, Derek Lowe is the lowest risk starter in the AL if you're desperate for ERA and WHIP help.

a
xy - Mark Buehrle(43453)
xy - Paul Byrd(54430)
xz - Sidney Ponson(44504)
xz - Frank Castillo(33444)
xz - Chuck Finley(42355)
z - Orlando Hernandez(53440)
Rob Bell(44105)
Only Buehrle, Castillo, and El Duque can be trusted to win at least another half dozen games by the end of the year. However Byrd's still a relatively consistent starter, Ponson's put together a very respectable season, and Finley should really help most teams, especially in 5x5 leagues. Also remember that Bell has a lot of potential and pitched great in AAA, so consider taking a flyer on him if you can risk some ERA/WHIP damage until he re-establishes himself in the majors.

b
xy - Cory Lidle(32302)
Brandon Lyon(42030)
Matt Wise

We still like Lidle, although he's definitely a trade risk and continues to allow too many hits.

c
x - Mark Redman(42453)
x - David Wells(44055)
Sterling Hitchcock(0)

Wells rebounded strongly from this season's back problems to post his best two starts of the year. Redman also hasn't seen a disastrous start since his first outing of the year. If he only went for a buck or two in your draft, see if you can acquire him since he should help now and for the next few years.

x
yz - Ramon Ortiz(53244)
yz - Kenny Rogers(23341)
y - Jeff Weaver(43552)
y - Dave Burba(44322)
y - Jeff Suppan(45302)
y - Tanyon Sturtze(42222)
y - Esteban Loaiza(25330)
Rodrigo Lopez(53524)
Ismael Valdes(42134)

Rod Lopez is finally starting to impress me with his slowly improving skills, but I doubt he'll continue to post one of the best ERAs in the league.

However, way back in the 2002 Top 150 AL Fantasy Prospects article on March 23rd, we included the following players on our list: Jeremy Affeldt(#38), Tom Wilson(#40), Travis Driskill(#81), Geronimo Gil(#123), and Rodrigo Lopez(#134). We're unaware of any other publication that touted these heretofore mostly unknown players as viable options, even in Ultra leagues, before the season; now these five, along with Hinske, Julio, Drese, Mohr, and Nick Johnson, represent the best of the AL rookie crop through one third of the season. (Please let us know if someone else propped one or more of these guys. While we know Affeldt was considered a good prospect, Baseball Prospectus has liked Wilson for years, and Gil some chance to win a job, neither of us can remember anyone mentioning Driskill or Lopez until a few weeks into the season.

Ramon Ortiz is our preference from this section(although we don't own him anywhere), and Weaver, Suppan, Loaiza, and Burba should continue to help.

y
z - Jamie Moyer(04414)
z - Todd Ritchie(20034)
z - Brad Radke(15300)
z - Aaron Sele(33223)
Jon Garland(10444)
Eric Milton(24503)
Scott Schoeneweis(31353)
Erik Hiljus(40200)
Josh Towers(121)
Doug Davis(12120)
Paul Abbott(02300)
Joe Mays(000)
Rick Bauer

Moyer's still a solid pitcher, but Garland's last two starts have convinced us his first solid performance wasn't a fluke. While I think he's still more of a prospect than someone who you can trust now, feel free to pick him up. Ritchie also appears on the rebound, so if the Sox can find a veteran pitcher somewhere to replace Glover in the rotation, they could start heading up in the standings. Scott Schoeneweis is defying his past trends, so while his current PQS log indicates immediate potential, remember that he could crash at any time; you'd be Wise to grab his backup.

z
Jason Johnson(5105)
Blake Stein(02)
Jim Parque
Steve Parris

Johnson returns this weekend; attempt to grab him and stash him on your bench, since he showed some potential before his fluke injury.

AL pitchers I recommend despite their failure to appear here include Jeremy Affeldt, Rob Bell, Adam Bernero, Ryan Drese, Travis Driskill, Casey Fossum, Aaron Harang, Travis Harper, Roberto Hernandez, Hideki Irabu, Jorge Julio, Ted Lilly, Matt Kinney, Kyle Lohse, Ramiro Mendoza, Justin Miller, Johann Santana, Rafael Soriano, Anthony Telford, and Esteban Yan.

Other frequently owned pitchers who you probably shouldn't deploy right now include James Baldwin, Scott Erickson, Tony Fiore, Ryan Franklin, Calvin Maduro, Darren Oliver, Jose Paniagua, Dan Reichert, Willis Roberts, Steve Sparks, Bob Wells, and Mark Wohlers.

We'll cover NL LPR ratings tomorrow.

Today's Fantasy Rx: Free Butterscotch Pudding! While not currently a law in any region of which I'm aware, I believe this would be an interesting piece of legislation, and certainly superior to the hundreds of millions of dollars of pork that the Illinois legislature just voted to their districts.

Saturday is this year's Belmont, and War Emblem has a chance to become the first Triple Crown winner in 24 years if he wins. The broadcast begins at 4 PM (CDT) on NBC, though we don't expect the actual race any earlier than 4:45 PM.