Today's Fantasy Rx

On our last day of discussing June trends, I'll review pitchers who, over the past five years, see their ERA rise by at least 1.50 from May to June. I focused on pitchers who compiled at least a total of 40 IP in both months over the past five years.

Ron Villone, RP, PIT: +5.16 ERA
97-01	GS/G	IP	H/HR	K:BB	W-L/S	ERA
May	5/39	80.0	52/7	56:48	5-1/1	2.03
June	13/31	46.1	87/10	48:53	4-7/0	7.19

02May 2/8	23.1	26/2	20:5	0-2/0	5.13

Villone's May skills suggest he should have posted a much better ERA, and instead of seeing a drastic rise from his normally solid qualitative May numbers, his ERA should remain fairly constant. Staying in the bullpen should help him, but you should only wait on him instead of seeking an upgrade if you're truly desperate for additional innings.

Jason Grimsley, RP, KC: +3.11 ERA
97-01	GS/G	IP	H/HR	K:BB	W-L/S	ERA
May	1/36	57.2	41/4	42:16	4-1/0	1.72
June	2/37	50.1	54/5	26:30	3-4/0	4.83

02May 0/12	14.1	7/1	10:6	1-1/0	1.29

With Grimsley's May skills not even approaching his normal excellence during that month, he's definitely somebody you should look to deal as soon as possible. I consider his ERA extremely likely to experience the normal June rise, and he'll wind up hurting your team if you own him much longer.

Mike Stanton, RP, NYY: +2.27 ERA
97-01	GS/G	IP	H/HR	K:BB	W-L/S	ERA
May	1/54	593.1	50/1	54:18	6-0/1	2.28
June	0-61	65.1	59/7	69:18	7-2/0	4.55

02May 0/13	13.1	18/2	7:5	1-0/0	5.40

Stanton's K:BB decreased from 10:4 in April to 7:5 in May, but he's returned to an excellent 3:0 K:BB in 3.0 IP in June thus far. I expect his ERA to wind up closer to his April numbers for this month, so he's a solid candidate to acquire if you need a decent reliever who won't hurt you.

Blake Stein, RP, KC: +2.22 ERA
97-01	GS/G	IP	H/HR	K:BB	W-L/S	ERA
May	6/12	49.0	48/8	45:24	2-3/0	4.22
June	8/9	42.1	39/11	42:23	3-4/0	6.44

02May 2/5	13.1	21/3	13:3	0-1/0	8.10

Before hitting the 15-day DL with a groin strain on May 28th, Stein started to show his best command in recent memory. Unfortunately he coupled this improvement with a dreadful 14.2 H/9, so even once he returns from his injury, you should probably look to deal him.

Ricky Bottalico, RP, PHI: +2.20 ERA
97-01	GS/G	IP	H/HR	K:BB	W-L/S	ERA
May	0/47	59.1	63/5	49:32	4-4/12	3.64
June	0/44	49.1	52/7	33:30	3-6/9	5.84

02May 0/12	14.0	11/1	12:8	0-1/0	3.86

Bottalico's performed slightly better from a skills' perspective than I expected thus far, and I wouldn't be at all surprised if he continued his effectiveness. However his normal yearly trend indicates that he could definitely struggle in the near future, so remain cautious if you decide to wait with him.

Scott Schoeneweis, SP, ANA: +2.17 ERA
97-01	GS/G	IP	H/HR	K:BB	W-L/S	ERA
May	10/19	76.0	86/5	30:31	3-4/0	5.33
June	9/19	60.0	80/13	38:26	3-7/0	7.50

02May 5/5	32.2	34/1	12:14	2-1/0	4.41

He somehow improved in May while we were rooting for Matt Wise to take his starting job. Since he has horribly weak K/9 and K:BB skills, I don't expect him to maintain an ERA anywhere below 5.00 for the remainder of the year, so look to deal him while he's still seemingly pitching well.

Jeff Weaver, SP, DET: +2.13 ERA
97-01	GS/G	IP	H/HR	K:BB	W-L/S	ERA
May	15/15	104.1	85/9	75:33	6-5/0	2.85
June	18/18	112.0	122/16	79:35	6-5/0	4.98

02May 5/5	37.1	28/0	29:8	3-2/0	2.41

His 4-7 record doesn't indicate that Weaver posted one of the best skill sets of any pitcher in May, but a closer look at the numbers reveals his effectiveness. I can only recommend that you wait for more data at this time, since despite his recent decent numbers, I remain as concerned as ever over potential burnout and his normal trend indicates an impending poor month; also feel free to trade him if you receive a good offer.

Dave Burba, SP, TEX: +2.02 ERA
97-01	GS/G	IP	H/HR	K:BB	W-L/S	ERA
May	28/29	180.1	183/18	149:68	14-5/0	4.24
June	26/26	146.2	173/28	104:71	9-12/0	6.26

02May 5/6	36.0	33/5	23:8	2-2/0	4.05

In his last four starts, he's posted a PQS log of 4322; while his decreasing K/9 streak has apparently troubled some analysts on other websites, we're more worried about his impending June swoon. You should probably explore a potential deal, but we're holding onto him in a few leagues since we expect him to rebound towards the end of the month.

Omar Daal, SP, LA: +1.87 ERA
97-01	GS/G	IP	H/HR	K:BB	W-L/S	ERA
May	22/34	147.2	150/16	83:48	11-9/0	4.39
June	19/25	113.2	143/16	84:46	7-5/0	6.26

02May 1/11	25.1	21/1	27:7	1-1/0	2.49

He won't carry this level of dominance with him as he again assumes Kevin Brown's spot in the rotation, but even his normal June ERA problems would leave him with a decent 4.37 ERA. I don't expect his value can go much higher, so potentially trade him if you have extra starters, or even wait to see if he can re-establish himself as a solid starter.

Randy Wolf, SP, PHI: +1.83 ERA
97-01	GS/G	IP	H/HR	K:BB	W-L/S	ERA
May	10/10	67.1	58/6	70:30	6-1/0	3.07
June	15/15	93.2	100/16	78:31	6-7/0	4.90

02May 6/6	36.2	35/3	22:15	2-2/0	4.17

Wolf still seems to be suffering from his days of overwork by Terry Francona, as while we expected outward improvement on both qualitative and quantitative levels, he's largely disappointed his owners thus far. You should probably wait to see if his skill ratios begin improving before considering any move unless someone's willing to overpay for him.

Mike Hampton, SP, COL: +1.76 ERA
97-01	GS/G	IP	H/HR	K:BB	W-L/S	ERA
May	29/29	200.2	183/8	128:68	15-6/0	2.56
June	25/25	158.1	162/11	100:76	10-8/0	4.32

02May 5/5	31.0	35/2	20:23	1-3/0	3.10

May is the only month that Hampton normally even posts an ERA below 3.00, and his five-year average doesn't return below 4.00 until August. If anyone's even slightly interested in taking him off your hands, deal him now. Considering his performance over the last year and a third, I believe Hampton's candidacy for Worst Free Agent Signing Ever increases on a weekly basis.

Alan Embree, RP, SD: +1.70 ERA
97-01	GS/G	IP	H/HR	K:BB	W-L/S	ERA
May	0/51	45.2	45/6	45:20	0-0/1	3.94
June	0/50	44.2	51/6	42:18	3-3/0	5.64

02May 0/11	9.2	7/1	13:3	1-1/0	0.93

His normal June ERA increase will leave him at an obviously horrible 2.63 for the month, and considering Bochy's usage patterns and Embree's complete dominance this year, 2.63 appears to be an unreasonably high projection. He may be one of the safest pitchers for you to acquire if you need a small ERA and WHIP boost from an injury replacement, or even if you need to bench a struggling starter.

Matt Clement, SP, CHC: +1.70 ERA
97-01	GS/G	IP	H/HR	K:BB	W-L/S	ERA
May	17/17	104.1	97/9	74:54	4-9/0	4.31
June	17/17	91.1	103/14	57:57	7-7/0	6.01

02May 5/5	32.0	19/2	27:13	2-1/0	2.81

While he's not dominating to the extent of his April performance, he might be settling in as one of the better roto starting options in the NL. Don't expect many wins, but especially in 5x5 leagues, he's definitely someone you should look to acquire.

Pitchers whose ERAs normally rise between 1.50 and 1.69 points in June include Keith Foulke(+1.59 ERA), Felix Rodriguez(+1.58), Woody Williams(+1.55), Esteban Yan(+1.53), and Kevin Millwood(+1.52).

Normally declining pitchers who've spent most of the season either on the DL, in the minors, or retired include Hector Carrasco(+6.32 ERA), Brian Bohanon(+3.81), C.J. Nitkowski(+3.18), Frank Rodriguez(+2.63), Kevin Tapani(+2.19), Chris Brock(+2.13), Jason Johnson(+2.08), Pat Rapp(+2.03), Terry Mulholland(+1.87), Mark Petkovsek(+1.69), and Omar Olivares(+1.68).

Internet Challenge

Starters(6)
Pedro Martinez: Sat:ARI(Schilling)
Curt Schilling: Sat:@BOS(Pedro)
Mike Mussina: Fri:SF(L.Hernandez)
Roger Clemens: Sun:SF(Ru.Ortiz)
Matt Morris: Sat:@KC(Affeldt)
Roy Oswalt: Fri:@OAK(Mulder)
Eric Gagne: 3 Road at Baltimore.
Brian Lawrence: Fri:@TB(Rupe)

No starts: Randy, Vazquez, Zito, Wood

Relievers(4)
Jason Isringhausen: 3 Road at Kansas City.
Byung-Hyun Kim: 3 Road at Boston.
Mike Williams: 3 Home vs. Milwaukee.
Eddie Guardado: 3 Home vs. Florida.
Jorge Julio: 3 Home vs. Los Angeles.

Everyone seems to be running Pedro and Schilling fairly consistently, but since they're facing each other and Boston and Arizona own the best two offenses opposing these potential pitchers, we'll bench these two and see if we can load up on offense.

We'll also sit Kim this weekend since we prefer Izzy in KC to deploying a pitcher in Boston.

Colorado's on the road, and to deploy our three top outfielders in Sammy, Vlad, and Bonds, we'll start Uribe instead of Rollins, leaving us $80 under the cap. We're starting Durazo instead of Ward since Arizona faces three right-handers while Houston faces at least one lefty.

The Umpire Hunter
Week 10b: June 7-June 9

C 	Jorge Posada		990
C	Toby Hall		320
1B	Jason Giambi		1640
1B	Ryan Klesko		1300
2B	Luis Castillo		1000
2B	Alfonso Soriano		900
3B	Eric Chavez		1070
3B	Shea Hillenbrand	450
SS	Alex Rodriguez		1880
SS	Juan Uribe		500
OF	Sammy Sosa		1900
OF	Ichiro Suzuki		1330
OF	Lance Berkman		1320
OF	J.D. Drew		1010
OF	Adam Dunn		710
OF	Erubiel Durazo		440
DH	Vlad Guerrero		1880	
DH	Barry Bonds		1830		

SP	Mike Mussina		1380
SP	Roger Clemens		1240
SP	Matt Morris		1190
SP	Roy Oswalt		830
SP	Eric Gagne		500
SP	Brian Lawrence		480
RP	Jason Isringhausen	1280
RP	Mike Williams		900
RP	Eddie Guardado		900
RP	Jorge Julio		750

Today's Fantasy Rx: I suspect many people may not have noticed a recent development on the south side of Chicago, but Jerry Manuel's benched starting shortstop Royce Clayton in favor of someone with more offense. Clayton isn't happy about this since he's focusing on his defense, and he's understandably pleased with himself for owning the best fielding percentage of any shortstop in baseball. However he never appears to demonstrate range as great as former and now returning starter Jose Valentin, and his 2001 range factor wasn't even in the top 10 of major league shortstops. While admittedly in about a third as much playing time, Valentin fielded almost .75 more balls per game than Clayton, 5.25 RF to 4.53 RF. Although Clayton's up to 5.07 this season, moving Valentin to short should still improve the Sox defense.

Manuel's move also likely improves the defense at third base, since we expect perennial prospect Joe Crede to return to the majors for good within the next week or two. Tony Graffanino will cover SS for a few games while Valentin works on grounders at practice, and then the left side of the infield for at least the next two to three years should be in place.

Juan Rivera's call-up and subsequent assignment of the right field starting job has overshadowed Crede's pending promotion, but for rotisserie purposes you should pay more attention to the latter development. Crede plays a position with far less talent Here's a comparison of their minor league stats this year. They both played in the AAA International League, with Crede at Charlotte and Rivera at Columbus, allowing a fairly accurate comparison of their stats.

		BB:K	BB%	CT%	SLG
Crede		.60	.10	.84	.555
Rivera		.30	.04	.85	.532

Comparing their 2001 MLEs suggests a similar analysis, aside from more impressive power from Rivera:

		BB:K	BB%	CT%	SLG
Crede		.54	.08	.83	.456
Rivera		.38	.05	.86	.526

I find much to like about the future of both these players, but Crede's followed a more traditional development path as he's never changed levels in mid-season other than two September call-ups, has more experience at higher levels, and plays the more difficult defensive position. If you need to make a choice in your league, definitely attempt to acquire Joe Crede, although Rivera also will help many teams.