Today's Fantasy Rx

On our third day of discussing June trends, I'll review pitchers who, over the past five years, improve their ERA by at least 1.50 from May to June. I focused on pitchers who compiled at least a total of 40 IP in both months over the past five years.

Antonio Alfonseca, RP, CHC: -3.51 ERA
97-01	GS/G	IP	H/HR	K:BB	W-L/S	ERA
May	0/43	48.2	53/9	29:21	3-4/15	4.99
June	0/45	48.2	51/1	46:13	8-0/16	1.48

02May 0/11	13.2	11/1	5:8	0-1/4	1.98

We've been fairly confident in Alfonseca all year, but I just have a feeling that he won't make his normal June ERA improvement this season. While I was hoping to recommend him strongly since the Cubs have looked more impressive lately, his recently weak K:BB forces me to only advise you to wait for hopeful skill improvement if you already own him, and you might even consider moving him for a decent package of players.

Roberto Hernandez, RP, KC: -3.42 ERA
97-01	GS/G	IP	H/HR	K:BB	W-L/S	ERA
May	0/57	62.1	59/7	59:30	3-3/27	4.76
June	0/62	67.0	47/2	53:32	4-0/34	1.34

02May 0/12	12.1	11/1	12:2	0-0/8	4.38

Hernandez posted one of the best months of his career from a skill and saves' perspective in May, so I find it eminently reasonable for him to see a sharp drop in ERA this month. He could easily repeat this save total for each of the remaining months, making him one of the more attractive options to acquire if you need saves.

Elmer Dessens, SP, CIN: -2.64 ERA
97-01	GS/G	IP	H/HR	K:BB	W-L/S	ERA
May	5/20	50.1	69/5	46:12	3-1/0	5.54
June	7/27	80.2	11/73	52:25	3-3/1	2.90

02May 6/6	34.2	39/4	16:8	2-0/0	3.63

Here's another pitcher who I'm fairly certain will not compile a June ERA 2.64 below his May mark, however Dessens did manage a 1.80 ERA in May, leaving me rather surprised at his 2002 success. He's a potentially interesting trade target, but I just don't trust him that much; you should likely wait another month to see if he can continue his great season before considering any move.

Dennis Cook, RP, ANA: -2.63 ERA
97-01	GS/G	IP	H/HR	K:BB	W-L/S	ERA
May	0/56	45.0	60/8	48:21	2-6/0	5.80
June	0/59	54.0	36/3	60:24	5-1/2	3.17

02May 0/10	7.1	3/0	4:0	1-0/0	2.45

Again, I suspect Cook won't lower his ERA by 2.63 from May to June this year, but he's pitching quite effectively as a left-handed specialist. He's a risk to hurt you qualitative numbers because one bad outing is more damaging when he pitches so few innings, although he's fairly safe to acquire if you need an injury replacement.

Paul Abbott, P, SEA: -2.53 ERA
97-01	GS/G	IP	H/HR	K:BB	W-L/S	ERA
May	10/11	54.2	49/9	50:28	4-4/0	5.43
June	11/11	68.1	52/6	40:27	7-0/0	2.90

02May 0/1	1.0	4/1	1:1	0-0/0	36.00

Abbott should return to the Mariners within the next two weeks but I see no reason for them to use him in a major role. He's shown little talent this year, and while he might improve upon his cumulative 11.96 ERA, you should definitely look to deal him as soon as he shows any semblance of skill.

Julian Tavarez, P, FLO: -2.52 ERA
97-01	GS/G	IP	H/HR	K:BB	W-L/S	ERA
May	5/41	75.2	78/8	42:39	4-7/1	5.71
June	6/52	98.2	94/11	61:35	7-2/0	3.19

02May 4/4	20.0	29/3	12:9	1-2/0	8.55

Despite a poor showing thus far in Florida, I wouldn't be surprised to see Tavarez's ERA head down to near or under 6.00. He's normally a decent starter, although there's no reason for you to consider almost any action other than a potential deal if anyone else will take a chance on him.

Paul Byrd, SP, KC: -2.48 ERA
97-01	GS/G	IP	H/HR	K:BB	W-L/S	ERA
May	11/20	79.0	73/16	51:27	6-5/0	5.47
June	11/19	87.1	89/8	44:27	6-3/0	2.99

02May 6/6	42.2	30/8	30:10	4-1/0

Frasier continues to perform at a very high level, and even after one rather disastrous June outing, I expect him to remain a very effective starter. Acquire him if you need a solid #3 for your team.

Ugueth Urbina, RP, BOS: -2.48 ERA
97-01	GS/G	IP	H/HR	K:BB	W-L/S	ERA
May	0/56	55.1	51/7	75:40	4-7/26	5.37
June	0/40	43.2	34/6	52:18	2-1/22	2.89

02May 0/12	11.1	4/0	11:4	0-0/9	0.00

I'm somewhat surprised by the number of players over the past three days who either played wonderfully or awfully in May, accelerating their normal yearly performance curve by a month in both cases. Urbina should continue to dominate, however his current cost may be beyond most team's potential to acquire him.

Anthony Telford, RP, TEX: -2.36 ERA
97-01	GS/G	IP	H/HR	K:BB	W-L/S	ERA
May	0/55	64.1	65/9	40:31	3-4/1	4.62
June	0/46	59.2	50/4	43:19	4-1/1	2.26

02May 0/3	5.0	3/0	5:2	0-0/0	0.00

While he's met with some success since his call-up, Telford didn't even post impressive stats at AAA Oklahoma. I don't expect him to pitch effectively if given a larger role in the Texas bullpen, but he probably won't hurt you if you want to wait, keeping him around until you find a better replacement.

Rolando Arrojo, P, BOS: -2.28 ERA
97-01	GS/G	IP	H/HR	K:BB	W-L/S	ERA
May	14/23	89.0	107/13	85:40	6-7/1	6.07
June	12/22	99.2	101/5	67:28	6-2/1	3.79

02May 0/8	19.0	17/0	9:5	2-1/0	3.79

Arrojo's now starting, and he turned in a fairly impressive performance in his first outing. He's pitched decently well as a starter in the past but his main asset will likely be wins. If you can afford a potential hit in ERA and WHIP to gain in wins, you should see if you can acquire Arrojo.

John Burkett, SP, BOS: -2.27 ERA
97-01	GS/G	IP	H/HR	K:BB	W-L/S	ERA
May	23/25	141.1	175/20	106:48	10-5/0	5.48
June	25/30	179.1	183/11	136:32	9-10/0	3.21

02May 6/6	36.2	42/7	29:9	4-0/0	3.93

Other than allowing too many homers, and therefore ratcheting up his ERA, Burkett's performed as well as almost any pitcher in baseball. He's maintained a good strikeout rate, excellent command, and has won seven straight decisions. Remain cautious since he's starting to allow too many hits and he'll always be vulnerable to ERA jumps, but there's no great reason not to acquire him if you need to add a good starter.

Pitchers whose ERAs normally drop between 2.00 and 1.50 points in June include Tim Worrell(-1.99 ERA), Orlando Hernandez(-1.92), Felix Heredia(-1.81), Mike Morgan(-1.78), Jose Jimenez(-1.77), Jamey Wright(-1.77), Sterling Hitchcock(-1.76), Jose Mesa(-1.71), Eric Milton(-1.70), Bruce Chen(-1.66), Jose Santiago(-1.62), Mike Fetters(-1.58), Jay Witasick(-1.56), Rick White(-1.55), and Steve Sparks(-1.54).

Normally improving pitchers who've spent most of the season either on the DL or in the minors include Dan Miceli(-3.17 ERA), Chris Peters(-2.42), and Manny Aybar(-1.74).

Today's Fantasy Rx: We flipped on this morning's World Cup match of the United States' first tournament game against heavily-favored Portugal and their Golden Generation of players. Our plan was to watch for about five minutes or so, and resume something more interesting, like perhaps working on today's articles or watching the rain outside.

Except the U.S. scored in the fourth minute of action, thereby keeping us fairly riveted to the screen for most of the next two hours, growing ever more surprised as an own goal by Portugal and a screaming header by Brian McBride left us up 3-0 on a team expected to compete for the Cup.

I played soccer competitively for over a dozen years but never found much fascination in watching the game. While we enjoyed the Women's World Cup matches in '99, men's soccer seemed less interesting, and we probably wouldn't have stayed with today's game if Portugal had scored first and then played keep-away for the next 89 minutes (plus stoppage time).

However Portugal didn't score first, or second, or third, and now I suspect we'll be staying up to catch the 1:25 AM CDT game on Monday against the host team of the Korean Republic.