Today's Fantasy Rx

Continuing with our second day of examination of June trends, I'll review hitters who, over the past five years, lose at least .050 BA and .100 OPS from May to June. I focused on players who compiled 100 AB in both April and May over the past five years.

Similar to last month, I'm going to spend the first four days of this week on players who typically either break out or slump in June. To qualify for consideration, a player must have 100 AB in both May and June over the last five years, and show a change, positive or negative, of .050 BA and .100 OPS between the two months.

I'll discuss in detail everyone with an OPS decline of .150 or more before I list the remaining qualified players.

Daryle Ward, OF, HOU: -.073 BA; -.331 OPS
97-01	AB	BB:K	BA/OBP/SLG
May	108	12:21	.250/.322/.546
June	113	5:42	.177/.210/.327

02May	87	2:21	.276/.292/.345

Ward's hit for practically no power this year and now he's not even getting on base at a good clip. Perhaps the indefensible Jimy Williams-imposed platoon with Brian L. has limited his opportunities, but we expected more production than his current rate; a further slump would really endanger his playing time and even potentially give Jason Lane a shot. Look to deal Ward now if anyone will pay close to his spring training price.

Gabe Kapler, OF, TEX: -.092 BA; -.302 OPS
97-01	AB	BB:K	BA/OBP/SLG
May	193	30:26	.295/.391/.544
June	251	20:48	.203/.262/.371

02May	74	1:8	.257/.256/.324

Kapler may have even less value than Ward at the moment, although Gabe's five steals probably look fairly good to his owners right now. His BB:K at least was unacceptable in April at 6:12, and he seems destined for a sub-.250 BA right now. However since his market may be extremely limited depending on your league, you should attempt to wait a few more weeks before making a move in the hope that he can put together a couple decent games.

Geoff Jenkins, OF, MIL: -.069 BA; -.230 OPS
97-01	AB	BB:K	BA/OBP/SLG
May	222	17:49	.311/.368/.568
June	289	27:70	.242/.315/.391

02May	97	8:21	.227/.292/.443

Favre isn't even approaching the breakout predictions of some analysts, but given his fairly weak skills, including dreadful plate discipline, his struggles aren't overly surprising. His 7 homers might still allow you to pick up someone decent in exchange for him, so look into a deal before a further slump leaves you with a very streaky one-dimensional player.

Barry Bonds, SF, OF: -.066 BA; -.227 OPS
97-01	AB	BB:K	BA/OBP/SLG
May	349	96:72	.341/.481/.771
June	404	111:68	.275/.436/.589

02May	72	31:11	.292/.510/.792

I don't believe Bonds' history will affect his 2002 numbers as his current .560 OBP and .814 SLG are unlikely to decrease unless teams decide to start pitching to him more often. He actually slumped over a hundred points of OPS in May off his 1.428 April pace, so you might even want to try to acquire Barry by focusing on his walk-limited AB totals in negotiations.

Todd Helton, 1B, COL: -.063 BA; -.226 OPS
97-01	AB	BB:K	BA/OBP/SLG
May	375	69:44	.371/.467/.723
June	364	44:56	.308/.387/.577

02May	101	23:14	.347/.457/.723

Even the uncanny similarity between his 2002 May and career May totals didn't stop us from starting him full-time in the Diamond Challenge mid-season game. Teams finally appear to be scoring a higher total of runs in Coors, and Helton should be the primary beneficiary of this change. If his owner is still concerned about the humidor, happily offer to acquire Helton at a potential discount.

Carlos Febles, 2B, KC: -.090 BA; -.225 OPS
97-01	AB	BB:K	BA/OBP/SLG
May	190	18:29	.311/.379/.474
June	145	20:38	.221/.318/.310

02May	82	14:15	.195/.327/.268

You should already be looking to deal him since he's due for an injury at any time. However his solid BB:K this season suggests his BA will rise in June, and those 8 May steals were very helpful to many owners. I still don't trust him due to his health history, but you shouldn't be urgently seeking a trade.

Pat Burrell, OF, PHI: -.064 BA; -.209 OPS
97-01	AB	BB:K	BA/OBP/SLG
May	120	17:40	.308/.393/.558
June	197	27:60	.244/.336/.406

02May	85	14:21	.341/.431/.694

Burrell appears unlikely to sink to his avearge June levels, and he'll have more RBI opportunities hitting behind Abreu in the middle of the order. Now remains a good time to acquire him if you need a major power boost.

Jason Kendall, C, PIT: -.069 BA; -.204 OPS
97-01	AB	BB:K	BA/OBP/SLG
May	498	63:50	.341/.434/.514
June	459	50:55	.272/.369/.375

02May	107	4:2	.308/.339/.374

Like seemingly several other formerly solid catchers, Kendall's lost most of his power this season; at least he's still contributing with a decent BA and some steals. Unfortunately 13 runs and 20 RBI are unacceptable from someone who likely went for close to $20 or more in your league. His plate discipline remains decent, so unless someone else is willing to take a chance on him, you should probably wait in the hope that his power will return.

Ray Lankford, OF, SD: -.051 BA; -.195 OPS
97-01	AB	BB:K	BA/OBP/SLG
May	433	69:121	.296/.393/.603
June	400	61:123	.245/.343/.458

02May	66	14:19	.242/.373/.303

His dreadful .296 SLG this season obscures a mildly respectable .348 OBP, and considering Lankford's problems over the past few years, his BA may never return to acceptable levels. He remains a risk, but he's still shown enough plate discipline that I'm comfortable advising you to wait for improvement, as we continue to use him on two of our teams.

Randy Winn, OF, TB: -.058 BA; -.172 OPS
97-01	AB	BB:K	BA/OBP/SLG
May	149	26:29	.315/.416/.403
June	323	27:61	.257/.319/.328

02May	102	10:24	.235/.325/.343

Many of the players on today's list struggled throughout May, so perhaps they simply experienced their June swoons a month early. Since Tampa needs someone to start in the outfield and they seem very reluctant to bring up Carl Crawford(since they'd have to use a 40-man roster spot on him, and there's little reason to start his arbitration or free agent clock sooner than necessary), Winn should continue to start for the rest of the year. Unless you can afford to deal steals, wait for a hot streak before considering any move.

Ichiro Suzuki, OF, SEA: -.049 BA; -.171 OPS
97-01	AB	BB:K	BA/OBP/SLG
May	124	3:6	.379/.409/.532
June	115	6:4	.330/.361/.409

02May	109	16:9	.404/.477/.440

Ichiro missed qualifying by one BA point but I wanted to include him anyway to demonstrate how a potential Ichiro "slump" might look. However I expect him to continue his amazing adjustment to the majors, and I see no reason why you shouldn't continue every attempt to acquire him.

Jason Varitek, C, BOS: -.068 BA; -.160 OPS
97-01	AB	BB:K	BA/OBP/SLG
May	272	27:65	.290/.362/.515
June	225	25:46	.222/.304/.413

02May	84	9:19	.226/.316/.369

Another hitter who slumped during his normal breakout period, Varitek hasn't shown either much plate discipline or power this year. He'll have plenty of RBI opporunities in the Boston lineup, so you should probably wait in the hope that his production increases as he continues to recover from last season's injury.

Geoff Blum, 3B, HOU: -.051 BA; -.160 OPS
97-01	AB	BB:K	BA/OBP/SLG
May	103	13:21	.282/.380/.437
June	121	16:26	.231/.326/.331

02May	41	6:8	.220/.319/.293

Although Blum should continue to receive most of the playing time in place of the demoted Ensberg, we don't recommend him at all. He's never shown much power, he's more likely to slump to an even lower OPS than to improve in the near future, and he has some of the worst hair in the majors. Deal him now while his value's been temporarily increased by the mirage of an apparent starting job.

Players that qualified but lost less than .150 OPS include J.D. Drew(-.062 BA/-.147 OPS), Orlando Cabrera(-.061/-.146), Preston Wilson(-.122/-.138), David Justice(-.053/-.126), and John Olerud(-.50/-.102).

Part-time or reserve players who normally slump badly include Greg Myers(-.096 BA/-.220 OPS), Greg Norton(-.075/-.220), Darren Lewis(-.082/-.177), Wil Cordero(-.054/-.147), Randy Velarde(-.053/-.146), and Eddie Taubensee(-.089/-.130).

A few players qualified but aren't currently in the majors, including Bobby Bonilla(-.117 BA/-.265 OPS), Curtis Pride(-.110/-.203), Dave Magadan(-.085/-.197), Henry Rodriguez(-.061/-.151), Joe Oliver(-.057/-.134), and Ryan McGuire(-.054/-.130).

Today's Fantasy Rx: Enjoy the weather in your area, since we expect it has to be better than here. We've seen fairly steady severe thunderstorms for a couple of days, coupled with some wonderfully annoying alternating pressure fronts. Plus the lightning/thunder combos have forced our server down a few times. Thankfully there's no flooding in this region so far, but we thought we'd see more consistent summer weather by now.