Today's Fantasy Rx

Similar to last month, I'm going to spend the first four days of this week on players who typically either break out or slump in June. To qualify for consideration, a player must have 100 AB in both May and June over the last five years, and show a change, positive or negative, of .050 BA and .100 OPS between the two months.

I discovered that over thirty players also improved by at least that much this month, and another two dozen or so declined by similar amounts. Today we'll focus on improving hitters, tomorrow will be declining hitters, and the following two days we'll spend on improving and then declining pitchers.

I'll discuss in detail everyone with an OPS improvement of .150 or more before I list the remaining qualified players.

Orlando Merced, UT, HOU: +.112 BA; +.308 OPS
97-01	AB	BB:K	BA/OBP/SLG
May	229	19:39	.240/.297/.371
June	236	29:23	.352/.425/.551

02May	23	6:4	.348/.483/.478

With limited playing time normally consisting of daily pinch-hitting, Merced is unlikely to continue his normal June trend by posting a .460 BA or 1.269 OPS this month. However I see little reason why he can't at least maintain his .963 OPS, so if you need an injury replacement to provide a little BA and power, look to acquire Merced.

Paul Konerko, 1B, CHW: +.119 BA; +.294 OPS
97-01	AB	BB:K	BA/OBP/SLG
May	254	19:49	.197/.260/.362
June	316	31:42	.316/.384/.532

02May	105	7:16	.295/.345/.457

Konerko played through his normal May slump with more patience and only slightly less power than his career .286/.353/.491 averages. As the White Sox should continue to field one of the best offenses in either league even while losing DH Frank Thomas for the majority of interleague play, consider trying to acquire Konerko if you need a stud power hitter for the rest of the year.

Craig Counsell, IF, ARI: +.108 BA; +.290 OPS
97-01	AB	BB:K	BA/OBP/SLG
May	180	25:28	.178/.278/.228
June	224	37:23	.286/.385/.411

02May	108	15:10	.296/.382/.398

Counsell seemingly slumped in April before reviving in June, possibly as a product of playing every day from the beginning of the season. He still offers few supplementary attributes to his a solid BA, but as long as you don't expect much from him, there's no reason not to wait, keeping him around for at least the next month or two.

Derrek Lee, 1B, FLO: +.056 BA; +.265 OPS
97-01	AB	BB:K	BA/OBP/SLG
May	340	26:105	.215/.278/.324
June	240	32:50	.271/.363/.504

02May	115	8:27	.235/.288/.426

Lee's two-month slump may finally end as his G-F has dropped for the third straight year; it's now down to .67 from a 1.31 in 1999, so Leon's boy appears ready to tap into his always impressive power potential. I wouldn't be surprised to see him to surpass his career-high 28 homers this season, possibly improving to 40 HR no later than next year. Now would be a great time to acquire Lee.

Mike Lowell, 3B, FLO: +.086 BA; +.251 OPS
97-01	AB	BB:K	BA/OBP/SLG
May	125	8:24	.184/.237/.328
June	248	25:41	.270/.340/.476

02May	108	13:20	.278/.347/.417

After an April in which he posted a 1.107 OPS, Lowell seems primed to approach those heights again as he heads out of his traditional slump. We own him on a couple teams and see no reason to consider dealing him right now since you probably won't receive fair value in return, especially if he's at a good salary. While he's likely too expensive for you to acquire, definitely wait for his continued production if you own him.

Magglio Ordonez, OF, CHW: +.072 BA; +.218 OPS
97-01	AB	BB:K	BA/OBP/SLG
May	373	27:49	.295/.342/.504
June	403	45:36	.367/.429/.635

02May	96	7:15	.281/.327/.438

Mags' lack of power thus far might worry some owners, but after compiling only a meager .764 OPS in May, at least his quantitative numbers should head up this month. His weak eye concerns me, as perhaps he's lost focus batting higher in the order, although I doubt he'll continue to slump. Wait for that probable power development before considering any move.

Nomar Garciaparra, SS, BOS: +.080 BA; +.207 OPS
97-01	AB	BB:K	BA/OBP/SLG
May	283	23:29	.290/.344/.509
June	440	33:42	.370/.417/.643

02May	110	7:12	.318/.355/.573

Nomar shouldn't really miss Manny's presence considering the increased output from Daubach and Hillenbrand this year; Garciaparra should again challenge for the league lead in a few categories, including BA. If you need help in average or runs, Nomar is probably the best infielder you could add right now. Acquire him if you can afford to give up the necessary talent.

Scott Hatteberg, UT, OAK: +.085 BA; +.196 OPS
97-01	AB	BB:K	BA/OBP/SLG
May	160	18:23	.213/.296/.363
June	235	32:38	.298/.387/.468

02May	78	11:13	.269/.380/.526

Billy Beane's expectation of Hatteberg's probable hitting development now that he longer needs to catch appears as one of the surprisingly few impressive moves by the Oakland GM this year. Hatteberg's SLG is the truly shocking aspect of his stats, as he looks to have 30 homer potential. Congratulations to those of you who drafted him as a catcher in an apparently bad year for offensive backstops. If you need production behind the plate, Hatteberg is definitely someone you should look to acquire.

Adam Kennedy, 2B, ANA: +.075 BA; +.192 OPS
97-01	AB	BB:K	BA/OBP/SLG
May	191	11:19	.246/.289/.335
June	190	15:27	.321/.384/.432

02May	78	3:13	.321/.345/.500

While Kennedy's eye remains as poor as ever, he's displayed unexpected power during his normal slump. However with continual poor batting skills, he only helped teams needing steals, and if you can afford to deal him, I suggest you attempt to upgrade your second base slot. I think Kennedy may wind up in a straight platoon with someone like Eckstein in the near future, depressing both players' values.

Bernie Williams, OF, NYY: +.057 BA; +.189 OPS
97-01	AB	BB:K	BA/OBP/SLG
May	510	71:77	.325/.408/.559
June	382	63:56	.382/.470/.686

02May	115	16:19	.375/.455/.670

Bernie busted out a month early, slugging 9 homers with 26 RBI and 29 Runs in May. He might even be able to maintain this level of production, but I wouldn't advise trading for him with that expectation. You should probably just wait if you already own him, and hope for a brief slump if you don't, allowing you to grab him at a discount.

Matt Lawton, OF CLE: +.068 BA; +.186 OPS
97-01	AB	BB:K	BA/OBP/SLG
May	474	69:63	.253/.354/.378
June	383	59:48	.321/.411/.507

02May	102	12:3	.255/.345/.431

Lawton already appears to be tapping into his latent power skills, but we should also expect a stolen base surge as his OBP increases. Although he won't accumulate many RBI or Runs due to the weak lineup around him, there's no reason not to wait for the likely increased overall production this month.

Corey Koskie, 3B, MIN: +.097 BA; +.162 OPS
97-01	AB	BB:K	BA/OBP/SLG
May	193	30:44	.218/.330/.363
June	248	32:43	.315/.399/.456

02May	51	8:11	.353/.452/.549

Hopefully Koskie has recoved from his injury problems and can resume his position as one of the AL's top third baseman. You probably shouldn't expect more than a dozens steals total by the end of the year, but he should remain one of the best available power sources at the hot corner. Unless you need to upgrade to someone with a little more speed, wait for Koskie to continue heating up in June before considering a move.

Chipper Jones(+.054 BA/+.102 OPS) qualifed but posted an increase in OPS under .150.

Other players who qualified but don't start every day include Tom Lampkin(+.084 BA/+.279 OPS), Luis Lopez(+.100/+.242), Benji Gil(+.089/+.225), Marvin Benard(+.074/+.200), Chris Stynes(+.070/+.153 OPS), Ramon E. Martinez(+.081/+.151), Henry Blanco(+.064/+.145), Ron Belliard(+.051/+.127), Joe McEwing(+.070/+.115), and Ron Gant(+.058/+.104).

A few players qualified but aren't currently in the majors, including Dante Bichette(+.068/+.223), F.P. Santangelo(+.077/+.194), Mark Lewis(+.082/+.174), Operation Shutdown Bell(+.066/+.163), and Chad Allen(+.050/+.160)

Today's Fantasy Rx: The Major League Baseball 1st year player draft is scheduled for tomorrow at 12pm Eastern. Go here to access MLB's live radio coverage of the draft.

We'll listen to at least the first few rounds and strongly recommend that you try to tune in to hear a little of what could be a premier event if MLB knew anything about marketing. Pittsburgh, Tampa Bay, and Cincinnati will open what many expect will be one of the more convoluted drafts in years, while teams like Oakland and the Chicago Cubs both look to restock with several extra picks.

We were hoping to post a more thorough preview but lacked the time to provide adequate resources. Both Baseball America Online and their current newstand issue provide tremendous coverage, and we suggest you explore those sources at the moment. Here's a brief look at some probable early picks.

From recent reports, the Pirates will likely choose the first player that agrees to their offered $4M bonus, a deal that Ball State RHP Bryan Bullington, Virginia HS SS B.J. Upton, and British Columbia LHP Adam Loewen all turned down.

Personally, I don't know why Pittsburgh is considering anyone but B.J. Upton, as he's a 6'3" shortstop with significant offensive gifts who most scouts expect can remain at shortstop in the majors. Jeff Francis, another LHP from British Columbia should also be a top pick, but he might fall to the middle of the first round to a team like the Blue Jays.

Clemson SS Khalil Greene, selected in the 14th round last year by the Cubs, might go as high as 13th overall to the Padres, so we're somewhat disappointed we won't have a chance to grab him back. Oakland also has a lot of interest in him.

While the A's are replacing a system depleted of talent already graduated to the majors, our Cubs look to add even more depth to probably the best system in the game. We've seen rumors that RHPs Jason Neighborgall and Bobby Brownlie, the consensus #1 pick prior to this season, might fall to the Cubs' 21st overall pick or even to the sandwich round picks, so hopefully we'll pay for another potential ace.

I believe the Cubs own picks #20, #32, #36, #38, #56, #62, #93, #96, #112, and #123 in the first four rounds due to the free agent departures of Dave Weathers, Rondell White, and Todd Van Poppel. With these ten picks, we'd like to see one potential stud right-hander, at least one solid lefty starter, a top catching prospect or two, and a couple of shortstops, at least one of whom could play the position in the majors. South Carolina SS Drew Meyer and San Diego State SS Taber Lee, Travis Lee's younger brother, are two players we'd love to see in the organization, as is San Diego State's Jack Blalock, Hank's younger brother. The Cubs have assembled some solid drafts in the past few years, and now they can focus on adding talent at the weaker positions in the system while also maintaining our pitching depth after graduating Cruz, Zambrano, and Prior to the majors.