Today's Fantasy Rx

Twenty-four pitchers earned a 1 for their performance this season as of last week. Four more joined the list this week while six dropped off, bringing our total of LIMA-quality 2002 AL pitchers with at least 15 IP to twenty-two.

Pitchers who joined the list include Jarrod Washburn, Casey Fossum, Ugueth Urbina, and Hideki Irabu.

Pitchers who dropped off the list include Tim Wakefield(K:BB, HR/9), Juan Acevedo(K/9), Jeremy Affeldt(K:BB, H/9), Mike Stanton(K/9), John Halama(K/9), and Joel Piniero(K:BB).

Please refer here if you'd like to take another look at some of our methodology.

LPR Code Description
1 - K:BB of 2.0+, K/9 of 6.0+, HR/9 of 1.0-, and H/9 of 9.0- thus far in 2002
2 - K:BB of 2.0+, K/9 of 6.0+, HR/9 of 1.0-, and H/9 of 9.0- in the second half of 2001
3 - K:BB of 2.0+, K/9 of 6.0+, HR/9 of 1.0-, and H/9 of 9.0- in the first half of 2001
4 - K:BB of 2.0+, K/9 of 6.0+, HR/9 of 1.0-, and H/9 of 9.0- for all of 2000

a - DOM of 55% or more in 2002
b - DOM of 55% or more in 2001
c - DOM of 55% or more in 2000
x - DIS of 20% or less in 2002
y - DIS of 20% or less in 2001
z - DIS of 20% or less in 2000

(Note: I used the PQS logs from Baseball Forecaster to create these ratings, and I strongly recommend that you purchase a copy if you haven't already.

Here are the fourth set of 2002 in-season LPR ratings which include all games played through May 30th. We ranked pitchers by the highest LIMA rating and then by the best PQS rating. Starting pitchers, if necessary, are ranked by their performance over their last five starts, which I include after the pitchers name in chronological order, ending with his most recent appearance.

1234
abcxyz - Pedro Martinez(05554)

Arthur Rhodes
Mariano Rivera

No changes here as all three pitchers continue to consistently excel.

123
abcxyz - Roger Clemens(35504)
abxyz - Kevin Appier(44542)
abxy - Roy Halladay(45344)

No changes here either; we'd be happy to own any of these pitchers, and you should concentrate on this group when seeking to acquire a 5x5 starter. I'm not sure why, but I still feel like these three are relatively underrated compared to most other top pitchers.

124
Chad Bradford
Ugueth Urbina

I'm especially pleased with Bradford's and Urbina's early effectiveness considering their problems during the first half of last season.

134
Billy Koch
Paul Shuey

Stanton dropped off this list but the other two remain solid.

234
Keith Foulke

His high H/9 are starting to trouble me; approach any trade talks very conservatively.

12
Kaz Sasaki

He continues to cruise along at the end of one of the deepest bullpens in baseball.

13
Buddy Groom
Steve Karsay

Tim Wakefield fell of this list, but remember Groom and Karsay, two of the most underrated pitchers in roto.

23
abxyz - Tim Hudson(41224)
bcxyz - Mike Mussina(54353)
bcyz - Chan Ho Park(2430)

x - Danys Baez(35433)
Eddie Guardado
Troy Percival

Hudson's month-long slide has left him and Mussina as two of the more extreme underachieving pitchers in most leagues. Guardado and Percival battled against each other earlier this week but neither pitcher gained a clear advantage.

24
bcxyz - Bartolo Colon(53344)
cx - Paul Wilson(23324)

Dan Miceli
Todd Van Poppel

I'm quite pleased with the development of both Colon and Wilson, especially considering their more recent success.

34
xy - Joe Kennedy(44351)

Randy Choate
Rich Garces
Mike Holtz
Bob Howry
David Riske
Mike Stanton

Stanton returns down on the list, but he's easily pitching the best of this group. Aside from Mike, only Kennedy and perhaps Riske appear safe bets to own at the moment.

1
xyz - Jarrod Washburn(34255)
x - Ryan Rupe(55034)
x - Ted Lilly(12533)

Hideki Irabu(21)
Casey Fossum
LaTroy Hawkins
Sun-Woo Kim
Damaso Marte
J.C. Romero

Washburn's two recent dominant starts leave him as one of the more impressive emerging pitchers in the league, although we're also quite happy owning Rupe and Lilly in a few leagues. Irabu looks very comfortable in the Texas bullpen, and the developments of Hawkins and Kim have also surprised me. The other three lefties are all very safe bets at the moment; any one of them could move into a larger role, potentially finishing with double-digit value for the season.

2
abcxyz - Barry Zito(54534)
by - Mark Mulder(00104)
xy - Freddy Garcia(55344)
b - Joel Piniero(52520)
b - Rolando Arrojo
z - Kelvim Escobar

C.C. Sabathia(42450)
Lorzeno Barcelo
Shigetoshi Hasegawa
Antonio Osuna
Lou Pote
Ricardo Rincon
B.J. Ryan
Rudy Seanez
Victor Zambrano

Only Garcia, Zito, and Escobar strike me as particularly safe plays at the moment, although Mulder, Piniero, and Sabathia have a lot of upside. B.J. Ryan should also be a particularly low-risk option for roster filler.

3
by - Tim Wakefield(453)
xy - John Burkett(44331)
yz - Rick Reed(40040)
y - Andy Pettitte(500)

Gary Glover(0020)
Al Levine
Jim Mecir
Jeff Nelson
Bob Wickman
Kelly Wunsch

Burkett's still pitching rather effectively, but only Wickman seems low risk of the remaining pitchers here.

4
ax - Derek Lowe(53455)
y - Luke Prokopec(03025)

Lowe continues to excel but his K/9 remains slightly below LIMA qualification; Prokopec remains a relative disaster who likely should have headed to the pen instead of Brandon Lyon.

a
xy - Mark Buehrle(34345)
xy - Paul Byrd(35443)
xy - Jeff Suppan(04453)
xz - Sidney Ponson(44450)
xz - Frank Castillo(53344)
xz - Chuck Finley(44235)
z - Orlando Hernandez(53440)

Byrd is still my preference among these pitchers, though I see nothing wrong with owning any of them right now. Each would be a great addition to any pitching staff.

b
xy - Cory Lidle(35323)
Brandon Lyon(42030)
Matt Wise

Lidle just returned from the DL, Lyon's moved to the bullpen, and Wise is back in the minors; exercise caution when using any of them.

c
x - Mark Redman(42424)
x - David Wells(33440)
Sterling Hitchcock(0)

Redman's starting to show significant promise; pick him up for a potential extended boost to your rotation.

x
yz - Ramon Ortiz(45324)
yz - Kenny Rogers(04233)
y - Jeff Weaver(44355)
y - Dave Burba(544332)
y - Tanyon Sturtze(24222)
Rodrigo Lopez(35352)
James Baldwin(23325)

Ortiz, Weaver, and Burba are the class of this group, although Rod Lopez's performance has been difficult to fault. Only Sturtze and Baldwin are truly bad risks here; anyone else makes a decent pickup.

y
z - Jamie Moyer(14044)
z - Brad Radke(15300)
z - Aaron Sele(33322)
z - Todd Ritchie(11200)
Eric Milton(30245)
Jon Garland(11044)
Esteban Loiaza(253)
Scott Schoeneweis(23135)
Erik Hiljus(40200)
Josh Towers(121)
Doug Davis(12120)
Paul Abbott(02300)
Joe Mays(000)
Rick Bauer

Loiaza's probably my pick from this group, although I wouldn't object to owning Moyer, Sele, or Milton. Garland and Schoeneweis have been pitching better lately, although Ritchie's been a complete disaster since April.

z
Jason Johnson(5105)
Blake Stein(02)
Jim Parque
Steve Parris

Also no change here; avoid Stein, Parque, and Parris indefinitely, although monitor Johnson's progress while rehabbing from his injury.

AL pitchers I continue to recommend despite their failure to appear here include Juan Acevedo, Jeremy Affeldt, Rob Bell, Adam Bernero, Travis Driskill, John Halama, Aaron Harang, Travis Harper, Roberto Hernandez, Jorge Julio, Kyle Lohse, Ramiro Mendoza, Rafael Soriano, Ismael Valdes, and Esteban Yan.

Other frequently owned pitchers who you probably shouldn't deploy right now include Ryan Drese, Scott Erickson, Tony Fiore, Ryan Franklin, Matt Kinney, Calvin Maduro, Justin Miller, Darren Oliver, Jose Paniagua, Dan Reichert, Willis Roberts, Steve Sparks, Bob Wells, and Mark Wohlers.

We'll cover NL LPR ratings tomorrow.

Today's Fantasy Rx: Damaso Marte isn't getting nearly the press of someone like J.C. Romero, and even Casey Fossum has pitched in the shadow of his more hallowed teammates. All three of these pitchers can definitely help a team, so if you need an ERA/WHIP boost, or even help in strikeouts, see if you can acquire one of these guys; I doubt any of them, especially Marte, would be too expensive.