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May 28th 2002 |
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Your Daily Fantasy Rx |
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by Tim Polko In looking over some of my recent articles, I apparently never described my system of evaluation. I'll include this with future columns on underachievers, overachievers, and month-to-month trends. Acquire: This player's current perceived value is likely less than his future value, particularly in the next several weeks. Wait: For overachievers, hold onto the player for at least a few more weeks since his stats should exceed his current value. For underachievers, keep them since they should at least perform above their perceived value at the time. Deal: If you find an acceptable offer, trade these players since their value is likely peaking; while they may return to this level in a couple of months, their perceived value likely won't increase.
Arizona: Damian Miller, C Though Miller's definitely cooled in the past month, his stats still suggest a career year by the end of the season. He's only slightly improved his BB:K(.46 '02; .37 career) and walk rate(.12 '02; .09 career) while his contact rate(.73 '02; .76 career) has taken a small hit. We can explain both these changes with his #P/PA(4.07 '02; 3.66 career), as the extra .41 #P/PA forces more walks and strikeouts; he's never been above 3.68 prior to this year. A more significant development for Miller's roto potential is the sharp rise in his G-F(2.20 '02; 1.24 career). While he posted a 2.03 back in '98, he's never been over 1.15 in any intervening this year. Despite my normal support of Miller, unless he returns to an uppercut swing in the near future, consider a deal at catcher with an owner who vividly remembers his hot start in April.
April Overachiever: Junior Spivey, 2B Todd Walker's stats since recommendation: 31/97 for .320 with 2 HR, 11 RBI, 15 R, 0/0 SB%, and 10:14 BB:K; at least these numbers are roughly comparable to Spivey's, although the extra RBI and SB help more.
While he's likely out until late July, no other Brave is truly overachieving in any category. Prior to tearing his ligaments, DeRosa stole playing time from both Marcus Giles and, to a lesser extent, Rafael Furcal; while his numbers may currently be superior to the nominal starters, he has significantly less upside. DeRosa's BB:K(.60 '02; .63 '01) and walk rate(.05 '02; .07 '01) remained low this year while he only saw mild gains in #P/PA(3.31 '02; 3.19 career), contact rate(.91 '02; .88 '01), and G-F(1.67 '02; 1.85 career). I don't expect him to regularly start after this return, so if he's already on your DL, wait until he's back before moving him to someone desperate for a decent MIF.
April Overachiever: Andruw Jones, OF
I don't expect the opportunity to write about Sammy in this monthly column again this year, especially since June is his best month. However, even when he had little support behind him for much of last year, he only managed a .76 BB:K. Now he's at a fantastic .98 BB:K, far above his .39 career norm. He'd never exceed a .20 walk rate prior to this season's .23. Sosa's seeing a solid number of #P/PA(4.01 '02; 3.85 career), and his contact rate(.77 '02; .74 career) remains around his average. Most impressively, he's currently at the lowest G-F(.85 '02; 1.04 career) of his career, although he's also reached this level in previous seasons. Since Sammy normally begins tearing the league apart in June, now may be your last chance to acquire him in 2002.
April Overachiever: Corey Patterson, OF
Miller seems poised to take Jason LaRue's starting job as soon as Jim Bowden moves LaRue off the roster. Compared to his equally brief playing time last year, Miller's improved in almost every skill, including BB:K(.60 '02; .25 '01), walk rate(.10 '02; .08 '01), #P/PA(3.56 '02; 3.37 '01), and contact rate(.83 '02; .67 '01). I'm slightly concerned about the rise in his G-F(1.06 '02; .71 '01), although he'll remain potentially very valuable if he can stay around 1.00. Definitely look to acquire Miller before a LaRue trade.
April Overachiever: Juan Encarnacion, OF
Estalella horrified Petrick owners with his great 2002 debut, seemingly insuring that he'll hold the Rockies' starting job for much of the season. He's even maintaining his career averages in BB:K(.57 '02; .50 career), walk rate(.18 '02; .15 career), #P/PA(3.92 '02; 3.96 career), and contact rate(.68 '02; .69 career). As Estalella always showed very good power potential, his current G-F(.44 '02; .77 career) indicates that he'll post a career high in homers as long as he stays starting in Colorado. If he's available in your league, look to acquire him if you need to improve your production from catcher.
April Overachiever: Juan Uribe, SS
We expected Owens to provide significant SB help this year due to Jeff Torborg's speed fetish, but Kevin Millar's injury and ineffectiveness allowed Owens to assume a starting job in right field. However only his BB:K(.79 '02; .63 career) indicates any relevant skill development, and his contact rate(.90 '02; .87 career) indicates he's only striking out less, not increasing his walk rate(.08 '02; .08 career). He hasn't improved his #P/PA(3.55 '02; 3.57 career) and his G-F(2.57 '02; 2.32 career) suggests he's showing even less power, so unless you need to trade him to bolster another area, wait on any move since he should continue at this level.
April Overachiever: Mike Lowell, 3B
While Berkman's fast start has certainly exceeded our expectations based on a normal distribution of his year-long projections, here are his stats from last April and May for a comparison: 62/177 for .350/.470/.695 with 14 HR, 42 RBI, and 40:35 BB:K. He appears to have traded .75 OBP points for almost a hundred SLG points, potentially a very nice boost if the Astros' stars could maintain their traditionally excellent OBP ahead of him. For roto purposes, we can expect him to continue producing more power due to an increase in his plate discipline, as evidenced by his BB:K(1.29 '02; .81 career), walk rate(.20 '02; .16 career), and contact rate(.85 '02; .80 career), as well as a continued drop in his G-F(.82 '02; 1.03 career). His #P/PA(3.74 '02; 3.78 career) indicates he's not seeing any more pitches this year, so given his current stats and historical numbers, I'd expect him to finish with a BA under .300 along with over 40 HR, a nice jump over last year's 34 dingers. Certainly wait for the additional power numbers if you already own him.
April Overachiever: Daryle Ward, OF
Even with a small drop in his contact rate(.86 '02; .88 career), Roberts is posting fantastic averages due to sharp jumps in his BB:K(1.12 '02; .60 career) and walk rate(.16 '02; .07 career). Since his #P/PA(3.79 '02; 3.76 career) and G-F(1.85 '02; 1.97 career) have remained stable, the skill improvement appears due to a developing batting eye. His great play has likely insured that he'll remain atop the Dodgers' lineup for the indefinite future, so acquire Roberts if you need a leadoff hitter with very good speed for your team.
April Overachiever: Eric Karros, 1B
While his speed doesn't help the Brewers win games due to his poor success rate, we're seeing skill improvement as his playing time has increased. He's improved his BB:K(.58 '02 .38 '01) and walk rate(.11 '02; .07 '01), so even if his contact rate(.81 '02; .81 '01) doesn't indicate a reduction in strikeouts and his #P/PA(3.33 '02; 3.36 '01) is weak, Sanchez has displayed more discipline at the plate. I'm impressed by his rising G-F(2.95 '02; 2.42 '01), since with very little power, Sanchez needs to focus on beating out grounders. You could probably upgrade his position if you don't need the extra steals, so deal him if you can address deficiencies elsewhere on your team, since while I like his skill improvement, he remains a risk to own.
April Overachiever: Jose Hernandez, SS
He's running a 20-game hit streak despite little change in his plate discipline, including negligible movement in his BB:K(.62 '02; .66 career), walk rate(.08 '02; .08 career), and contact rate(.87 '02 .89 career). Vidro also hasn't supported any power development as he's only maintained a somewhat weak G-F(1.55 '02; 1.56 career). However, we've seen a nice jump in his #P/PA(3.85 '02; 3.59 career), so the increase in averages appears attributable to a better batting eye. He can maintain the BA but I don't expect him to break 100 Runs and RBI unless the Expos can somehow hold onto their increased walk rates. Despite the likely reduced production, wait on any move since he may be the best second baseman in the league right now.
April Overachiever: Michael Barrett, C
I tried to think of a decent Timo/TiVo joke here, but after all the publicity surrounding his performance leading up to the Subway Series, any such comment would feel like a rerun. Timo's rising BB:K(.75 '02; .53 career) hides a falling walk rate(.03 '02; .05 career), and his contact rate(.96 '02; .91 career) indicates that he's at least making contact while swinging all the time, avoiding strikeouts while holding his #P/PA(3.42 '02; 3.46 career) steady. His G-F(1.12 '02; 1.12 career) supports his negligible power, and his BA might even rise if he focused on hitting more grounders. However, I don't expect him to see significant playing time this season with millions committed to Burnitz and Cedeno, so deal Timo if someone thinks he'll see more playing time and/or hold this BA.
April Overachiever: Edgardo Alfonzo, 3B
You're watching the development of the next Philadelphia superstar, and the Phillies need to ignore Rolen for a couple months while they lock up Burrell, who's first arbitration-eligible at the end of this season. A contract similar to Richard Hidalgo's $45M for 5 years looks reasonable, but they can likely sign him cheaper if they talk with him soon. He's slowly developing into a probable 50-homer cleanup hitter, and aside from a small drop in #P/PA(4.00 '02; 4.10 career), he's improving across the board. Burrell's increased his BB:K(.50 '02; .45 career), walk rate(.15 '02; .14 career), and contact rate(.71 '02; .69 career) while dropping his G-F(.78 '02; .87 career) for the third straight year. If you need power, acquire him now, especially in keeper leagues.
April Overachiever: Jason Michaels, OF
With only one regular hitting over .270, Mackowiak's the default overachiever since he's starting and hitting 5th in pace of Armando Rios, who's again spending some quality time at home due to injury. While he's a decent bench player due to his versatility and marginal left-handed bat, his weaknesses are exposed in full-time play. His BB:K(.22 '02; .29 '01) has dropped a little, and he's continued to post a poor walk rate(.07 '02; .07 '01), #P/PA(3.69 '02; 3.61 '01), contact rate(.69 '02; .76 '01), and G-F(1.28 '02; 1.27 '01). Deal Mackowiak while he's still starting for Rios and contributing enough power to make him slightly valuable to some teams.
April Overachiever: Jack Wilson, SS
I wonder if the Braves could use a first baseman like this guy. We paid $38 and $39 respectively for him in two different NL-only 4x4 leagues this season, and despite the lack of steals, we're rather pleased with our investment. He continues to exceed his career averages in all skills, including his BB:K(1.04 '02; .70 career), walk rate(.16 '02 ; .14 career), #P/PA(3.85 '02; 3.68 career), contact rate(.84 '02; .80 career), and G-F(.98 '02; 1.06 career). I won't recommend him considering the other problems in San Diego's lineup and the not unexpected disappearance of his speed, but certainly wait on any move if you already own him.
April Overachiever: Sean Burroughs, 3B
After never exceeding a .351 OBP or .503 SLG in any of his sixteen prior seasons, the thirty-seven year old Santiago's defied his normal pattern of slumping before the break to post his best OPS in any season if he can maintain this pace. However, last year he lost 88 points of OPS after the break, so I expect him to continue his more recent trend of tiring later in the year. His batting eye remains solid, as shown by his BB:K(.44 '02; .34 career), walk rate(.07 '02; .06 career), and contact rate(.83 '02; .81 career), but his #P/PA(3.15 '02; 3.36 career) indicates that his plate discipline is slowly eroding. He also won't show much more power with a rising G-F(1.23 '02; 1.06 career). Explore a potential deal with any owner living in the past, say perhaps about fifteen years ago during Benny's Rookie of the Year season.
April Overachiever: David Bell, 3B
Ignore the minor change from his normal BB:K(.93 '02; 1.00 career) and walk rate(.06 '02; .07 career); exactly one more walk this season would put him at his career averages, and a steady contact(.93 '02; .93 career) rate also supports no change in his skills. Also, neither his #P/PA(3.13 '02; 3.25 career) nor G-F(1.32 '02; 1.35 career) appears to have changed. So why has Vina overachieved? His 10 SB tie him for his fourth best career total, and he's never exceeded 22 bags. However, over the last three years, Vina's stolen 13 bases in April, 7 more than his next best month(May). He's swiped 23 bases before the break in 32 attempts, while he's only managed 9 steals after the All-Star game in 17 attempts. So if you own him, you've likely seen the majority of his speed for the year; deal him right now to any team needing steals, since you're likely only dealing a second baseman with a good BA and not a speed threat.
April Overachiever: Eli Marrero, C/OF
Click
here to read the previous article.
Please e-mail your comments to
tim@rotohelp.com. |
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Rotohelp, Inc.
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