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May 27th 2002 |
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Your Daily Fantasy Rx |
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by Tim Polko In looking over some of my recent articles, I apparently never described my system of evaluation. I'll include this with future columns on underachievers, overachievers, and month-to-month trends. Acquire: This player's current perceived value is likely less than his future value, particularly in the next several weeks. Wait: For overachievers, hold onto the player for at least a few more weeks since his stats should exceed his current value. For underachievers, keep them since they should at least perform above their perceived value at the time. Deal: If you find an acceptable offer, trade these players since their value is likely peaking; while they may return to this level in a couple of months, their perceived value likely won't increase.
Anaheim: Orlando Palmeiro, OF Palmeiro's posting a career-best OBP, SLG, #P/PA(4.45 '02; 4.20 career), and G-F(.91 '02; 1.45 career); his previous best G-F was 1.35, so we might expect him to show off more power in the near future if he maintains those ratios. He continues to maintain a solid BB:K(1.50 '02; 1.35 career) and walk rate(.10 '02; .09 career), and my only mild concern is his dropping contact rate(.86 '02; .91 career). However he's still one of the best fourth outfielders in baseball and definitely contributes in AL-only leagues as a 5th outfielder or utilityman. Acquire Palmeiro if you need a capable injury replacement and he's available.
April Overachiever: Garrett Anderson, OF
The newly shortened distance to Camden's outfield fence has enabled a few Orioles to binge on homers, but Gil's sudden arrival as a roto force is far more shocking than the numbers posted by Tony Batista or Jay Gibbons. Despite some minor injury problems, he's maintaining one of the highest values of any catcher. None of his skills, including his BB:K(.25 '02; .71 '01), walk rate(.04 '01; .09 '02), #P/PA(3.30 '02; 3.52 '01), contact rate(.84 '02; .88 '01), and G-F(1.42 '02; 1.53 '01), show any real improvement; however he hadn't seen much playing time in the majors prior to this season. While I don't expect him to crush much over a dozen homers all year, he's definitely a decent target to acquire if you need more production at catcher.
April Overachiever: Marty Cordova, OF/DH
The playing time challenge from Tony Clark, Rickey Henderson, and a position-displaced Jose Offerman has pushed Daubach to significantly improved skill levels. Perhaps most impressively, his #P/PA(4.23 '02; 3.97 career) is .24 better than any year since his 1998 cup-of-coffee. He's developed more plate discipline, as evidenced by his now acceptable BB:K(.63 '02; .42 career) and solid walk rate(.16 '02; .11 career), while maintaining his contact rate(.75 '02; .74 career) and G-F(.97 '02; .96 career). Although he likely won't improve above his current averages, you should likely wait on any move since Daubach could easily continue at this pace for most of the season.
April Overachiever: Shea Hillenbrand, 3B
Tony G's posting the highest OPS of anyone on a team that includes Magglio Ordonez, Paul Konerko, Frank Thomas, Carlos Lee, and the resurgent Kenny Lofton. He probably deserves a starting job, but the White Sox really need him more as a utility infielder to back up their current and future starters. Unfortunately, he's unlikely to maintain his 2002 qualitative numbers since only his #P/PA(3.95 '02; 3.79 career) indicates any real development. There's been no significant change in his BB:K(.50 '02; .49 career), walk rate(.12 '02; .11 career), or contact rate(.76 '02; .79 career), and a rising G-F(1.44 '02; 1.04 career) indicates less potential power. If someone believes he'll start after an unlikely Durham trade, deal Graffanino while his value's still high.
April Overachiever: Kenny Lofton, OF
I'm disappointed in his poor SB% and steal totals thus far, but his other quantitative numbers nicely compensate for his speed and BA failures. A fantastic BB:K(3.00 '02; 1.21 career) and contact rate(.95 '02; .88 career), built upon his always-solid walk rate(.15 '02; .15 career) and decent #P/PA(3.55 '02; 3.75 career), suggests that his BA should rebound to around .300 by the end of the season. While a rising G-F(1.71 '02; 1.55 career) unfortunately foretells a drop in his power production, I'm still quite confident in his overall skills' set. Wait for his pending BA improvement before considering any move.
April Overachiever: Omar Vizquel
I chose to feature Magee here both because of the generally disastrous Detroit offense and because he's on pace to obliterate his previous best AB total. Even with continually poor skill, including a dreadful BB:K(.09 '02; .37 career) and walk rate(.01 '02; .07 career), he's finding more playing time than ever as the Tigers weather injuries and poor performances from many of their youngsters. He's at least roughly maintaining his norms in #P/PA(3.65 '02; 3.74 career), contact rate(.84 '02; .81 career), and G-F(1.44 '02; 1.31 career), so as long as he stays in the lineup, he should easily post career-high quantitative numbers. However you don't want to risk a potentially implosive BA, so only wait for the other stats if you can afford the BA hit.
April Overachiever: Randall Simon, 1B/DH
Tucker's qualitative stats appear quite poor, but an early 10 steals gives him appreciable value as a 5th outfielder in AL-only leagues. Interestingly, aside from an increased G-F(1.27 '02; 1.09 career), he's posting very relevant improvements in every skill ratios, including his BB:K(.89 '02; .49 career), walk rate(.18 '02; .12 career), #P/PA(3.97 '02; 3.93 career), and contact rate(.80 '02; .76 career). If he can maintain these levels, I expect his BA to jump several dozen points by the end of the season. He'll still help in steals, but you could also acquire him for the probable BA help.
April Overachiever: Joe Randa, 3B
I profiled Hunter last month since his numbers were staggeringly surprising; Jones' April was merely unbelievable. He's demonstrated slightly improved skills almost across the board, including his BB:K(.38 '02; .32 career), walk rate(.08 '02; .06 career), #P/PA(3.59 '02; 3.53 career), and contact rate(.81 '02; .80 career). Unfortunately, I don't expect much more power this year, as his G-F(2.16 '02; 1.97 career) continues to rest above 2.00. Consider a deal for someone with more power potential, but you'll also at least receive helpful stats in most categories if you keep Jones on your roster.
April Overachiever: Torii Hunter
Nothing in Robin's skills suggests that his current power display indicates anything other than the likelihood that he's already hit the majority of his homers for the year. While his G-F(.96 '02; 1.06 career) displays a little power growth, significant drops in BB:K(.66 '02; .93 career) and contact rate(.75 '02 .84 career) depict a rising strikeout rate, a probable precursor to further BA difficulties. Even the continued maintenance of a respectable walk rate(.16 '02; .15 career) and #P/PA(3.87 '02; 3.89 career) won't compensate for the age-induced disappearance of his skills. Consider a deal of Ventura now before his value inevitably drops.
April Overachiever: Alfonso Soriano, 2B
GM Billy Beane believed that Hatteberg's latent hitting skills would blossom once he focused on offense instead of catching. Beane's assessment appears correct, at least according to Hatteberg's improvement in BB:K(1.24 '02; .87 career) and contact rate(.89 '02; .85 career) while maintaining a solid walk rate(.14 '02; .13 career) and #P/PA(4.11 '02; 4.08 career). However, a relatively weak G-F(1.43 '02; 1.42 career) doesn't suggest much additional power development, so while a .280/20/75 season certainly helps roto teams needing production from catcher, he doesn't add much as a DH or 1B to the Athletics. Explore potentially dealing Hatteberg now before Beane decides to start Pena, Piatt, and Byrnes, excluding more expensive veterans from the lineup.
April Overachiever: Jeremy Giambi, OF
McLemore's posted the best seasons of his career since joining the Mariners for the 2000 season. This year, he's somehow improved upon the career-best .384 OBP and .406 SLG, only reached in 2001. While he belted six homers in 1999 and five homers in four other years, he's on pace for double-digit dingers for the first time; a G-F drop from 1.54 in 2000 to 1.27 last year indicates we should have noticed the pending development, supported by another career-best skill at 1.12. Only a small drop in his contact rate(.82 '02; .85 career) suggests any problem, as he's also registering improvement in his BB:K(1.00 '02; .90 career) and walk rate(.18 '02; .14 career). Since he's even held a solid #P/PA(3.81 '02; 3.80 career), look to acquire McLemore if you need any offensive help.
April Overachiever: Carlos Guillen, SS
On a team with only one batter owning an OPS over .791, Flaherty's BA, coupled with Toby Hall's offensive and defensive problems, makes him an attractive offensive option. However, despite a small sample size, I don't see any relevant skill development aside from decent improvement in his usually dreadful #P/PA(3.69 '02; 3.37 career). He likely won't maintain small gains in BB:K(.43 '02; .37 career) and walk rate(.07 '02; .05 career); I'm also worried about further deterioration of his contact rate(.84 '02; .86 career). His falling G-F(.83 '02; 1.03 career) supports potential power development, but Flaherty's unlikely to see enough playing time to again post double-digit homers. If anyone's interested in your temporarily .300-hitting catcher, deal him now before his BA begins a potential hundred point drop.
April Overachiever: Randy Winn, OF
A career-worst #P/PA(3.19 '02; 3.54 career) indicates Perry's less patient than in the past despite a rising BB:K(.67 '02; .41 career). Along with a smartly improved contact rate(.90 '02; .82 career) and no gain in his walk rate(.07 '02; .07 career), we're only really seeing less strikeouts from Perry. The .14 rise in his G-F(1.44 '02; 1.30 career) even decreases his already limited power potential, so I don't expect him to hold a starting job past the time when Blalock reclaims his major league position. Explore a deal involving Perry, especially if another owner will offer you an established starting third baseman.
April Overachiever: Hank Blalock, 3B
Wilson's posted very solid minor league offensive numbers for several seasons, but only received 21 major league at-bats prior to this year. He's managed an excellent walk rate(.18 '02 .05 '01) and #P/PA(4.40 '02; 3.92 '01), along with a G-F(.71 '02; .40 '01) that indicates immediate power potential. As his BB:K(.67 '02; .20 '01) and contact rate(.73 '02; .76 '01) are also relatively decent, we can definitely recommend him to an AL-only team, especially since he appears likely at least to platoon with Darrin Fletcher until Toronto promotes Josh Phelps. Acquire Wilson if you need a catcher with upside who shouldn't hurt you.
April Overachiever: Eric Hinske, 3B
Click
here to read the previous article.
Please e-mail your comments to
tim@rotohelp.com. |
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