Today's Fantasy Rx

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Anaheim: Troy Percival, RH Closer
7 Saves on 19:7 K:BB in 11.2 IP over 13 G with 8 H, 2 HR, and 10-7 G-F; 3.09 ERA.

After a fantastic 2001, Percival's saves have plummeted despite a surprising Angels' offense and solid rotation. He's posting a superb K/9(14.7 '02; 11.2 career), although his other skill ratios appear a little weak; his H/9(6.2 '02; 5.8 career) and HR/9(1.5 '02; .9 career) are both a little off. Fortunately he's suddenly turned into a groundball pitcher with a great G-F(1.43 '02; .59 career), so I'd expect his HR/9 rate to drop in the near future. His continues to compile a solid K:BB(2.7 '02; 2.8 career) ratio, and I see no reason why he shouldn't reemerge as one of the top AL closers. Acquire Percival if you need relief help.

April Underachiever: Scott Schoeneweis, LH Starter
Old stats: 1-3 on 14:10 K:BB in 23.1 IP over 4 GS with 28 H and 5 HR; 7.33 ERA.
Recommendation: deal.
Stats since recommendation: 2-1 on 7:10 K:BB in 26 IP over 4 GS with 28 H and 0 HR; 3.46 ERA.

Baltimore: Jason Johnson, RH Starter
1-3 on 15:7 K:BB in 21.1 IP over 4 GS with 26 H, 1 HR, and 34-23 G-F; 5.48 ERA.

Johnson broke his middle finger while practicing his motion on the mound without a ball. Prior to his injury, he'd performed far above his normal averages in almost every skill category, albeit in a relatively small sample size. Only his H/9(11.0 '02; 9.7 career) showed any problems as he improved his K:BB(2.1 '02; 1.4 career), K/9(6.3 '02; 5.7 career), HR/9(.4 '02; 1.4 career), and G-F(1.48 '02; .95 career). A 5105 PQS log also demonstrates his ability to dominate in his starts, so as long as his rehab starts look good, look to acquire Johnson when he returns in a couple weeks if you need a starter to add relatively low-risk innings to your staff.

April Underachiever: B.J. Ryan, LH Specialist
Old stats: 0-0 on 7:3 K:BB in 6.2 IP over 7 G with 10 H and 1 HR; 9.45 ERA.
Recommendation: wait.
Stats since recommendation: 0-0 on 9:4 K:BB in 7.2 IP over 12 G with 5 H and 0 HR; 2.35 ERA.

Boston: Frank Castillo, RH Starter
2-4 on 27:13 K:BB in 46.1 IP over 8 GS with 36 H, 7 HR, and 64-59 G-F; 3.88 ERA.

Castillo continues to show little upside but manages to pitch quite competently in a majority of his outings; his current 5-start PQS log is very good at 04533. He's only really exceeding his normal marks in H/9(7.0 '02; 9.3 career), but he's around his average levels in K:BB(2.1 '02; 2.2 career), K/9(5.2 '02; 6.2 career), HR/9(1.4 '02; 1.1 career), and G-F(1.08 '02; 1.15 career). I'd expect him to be 4-2 with these numbers instead of his current record, so you might look to acquire him if you need a decent 5th starter.

April Underachiever: Rich Garces, RH Setup
Old stats: 0-0 on 2:1 K:BB in 5.1 IP over 6 G with 7 H and 1 HR; 10.12 ERA.
Recommendation: acquire.
Stats since recommendation: 5:1 K:BB in 5.2 IP over 6 G with 5 H and 1 HR; 6.35 ERA.

Chicago White Sox: Keith Foulke, RH Closer
8 Saves on 16:4 K:BB in 19.1 IP over 18 G with 23 H, 2 HR, and 28-20 G-F; 4.19 ERA.

A couple websites have recently mentioned that Foulke hasn't seen a save opportunity in nearly a month. Despite this unfortunate recent stretch, wherein the White Sox seem to either bludgeon their opponents with scores of runs over a few days, or allow a similar number against their weaker pitchers, Foulke remains a top closer. I'm concerned about his falling K/9(7.4 '02; 8.7 career) and significantly increased H/9(10.7 '02; 7.4 career), but he's held his K:BB(4.0 '02; 3.7 career) and HR/9(.9 '02; 1.0 career) very steady. Like Percival, he's suddenly turned into a groundball pitcher with an above average G-F(1.40 '02; .79 career), and I expect him to begin racking up more saves as the White Sox hot offense and weak pitchers balance out. He's a great target to acquire, especially as his value is somewhat lower than normal at the moment.

April Underachiever: Antonio Osuna, RH Middle Reliever
Old stats: 3-0 on 8:5 K:BB in 10 IP over 7 G with 10 H and 0 HR; 6.30 ERA.
Recommendation: wait.
Stats since recommendation: 0-1 on 7:5 K:BB in 14.1 IP with 11 H and 0 HR; 1.88 ERA.

Cleveland: C.C. Sabathia, LH Starter
3-4 on 40:25 K:BB in 51.2 IP over 9 GS with 54 H, 4 HR, and 70-57 G-F; 5.92 ERA.

Sabathia hasn't completed the seventh inning in any of his last few starts, although he's still managed to post a 01424 5-start PQS log. I see no reason for this high ERA since all his ratios are relatively close to last season's stats, and he's even improved his G-F(1.23 '02; .79 '01) quite favorably. He's roughly maintained his K:BB(1.6 '02; 1.8 '01), K/9(7.0 '02; 8.5 '01), H/9(9.4 '02; 7.4 '01), and HR/9(.9 '02; .7 '01), but the combination of slight deterioration in all these numbers could account for his slow start. He won't dominate either MLB teams or in roto leagues until he begins conserving his pitches and actively attempting to reduce his pitch count, and I'm unaware of any immediate desire to accomplish either goal. You should likely wait for Sabathia's ERA to head down before considering any other action.

April Underachiever: Chuck Finley, LH Starter
Old stats: 1-2 on 14:7 K:BB in 13.2 IP over 3 GS with 21 H and 3 HR; 7.90 ERA.
Recommendation: deal
Stats since recommendation: 1-3 on 22:17 K:BB in 31.2 IP over 5 GS with 37 H and 2 HR; 3.98 ERA.

Detroit: Jose Paniagua, RH Reliever
0-1 on 16:8 K:BB in 18.2 IP over 17 G with 21 H, 4 HR, and 20-27 G-F; 5.30 ERA.

Juan Acevedo stole Paniagua's chance at closing even after registering a worse statistical history. Panigua's returned to his 2000 level of pitching as his skill ratios again seem to support sold qualitative numbers. He's improved his K:BB(2.0 '02; 1.4 career) and K/9(7.7 '02; 7.0 career), although his H/9(10.1 '02; 8.7 career), HR/9(1.9 '02; .9 career), and G-F(.74 '02; 1.12 career) have risen to worrisome levels. I like him as a low risk roster filler, although you should probably look elsewhere if you'd like someone with noticeable upside; only look to acquire Paniagua as a temporary injury replacement.

April Underachiever: Mark Redman, LH Starter
Old stats: 0-3 on 14:11 K:BB in 24.1 IP over 4 GS with 27 H and 4 HR; 7.40 ERA.
Recommendation: acquire.
Stats since recommendation: 1-2 on 25:13 K:BB in 25.1 IP with 37 H and 1 HR; 3.55 ERA.

Kansas City: Jason Grimsley, RH Setup
2-2 on 13:12 K:BB in 18.2 IP over 19 G with 16 H, 1 HR, and 37-11 G-F; 4.34 ERA.

Grimsley was also unable to establish himself as a closer during April, so he's now back in a setup role for the indefinite future. After a surprisingly impressive 2001 season where he posted a solid 2.2 '01 K:BB, his ratios have reverted to his previous norms. Only improvements in H/9(7.7 '02; 9.1 career),G-F(3.36 '02; 2.00 career), and subsequently HR/9(.5 '02; .8 career) have kept his ERA below 5.00. I expected him to continue producing around last year's levels, so his poor K:BB(1.1 '02; 1.2 career) and average K/9(6.3 '02; 5.9 career) don't impress me. Look to deal Grimsley before his numbers really start hurting your team.

April Underachiever: Cory Bailey, RH Setup
Old stats: 0-2 on 5:4 K:BB in 8.2 IP over 7 G with 12 H and 3 HR; 9.35 ERA.
Recommendation: deal.
Stats since recommendation: 0-2 on 10:9 K:BB in 17.2 IP over 11 G with 15 H and 0 HR; 1.02 ERA.

Minnesota: Eric Milton, LH Starter
6-3 on 30:10 K:BB in 59.2 IP over 10 GS with 66 H, 9 HR, and 74-100 G-F; 5.28 ERA.

Milton has not yet developed into the power pitcher that many expected during his quick rise to the majors. His K/9(4.5 '0; 6.5 career) is poor and his H/9(10.0 '02; 9.2 career) are barely adequate; even solid K:BB(3.0 '02; 2.5 career) doesn't improve his overall numbers. He remains a flyball pitcher despite a slight rise in G-F(.74 '02; .59 career), and unfortunately maintained a high HR/9(1.4 '02; 1.4 career). I'm also not pleased with the lack of any truly dominant outings in his last five starts as he registered a 43014 PQS log, so you should probably only wait in the hope that Milton can improve his ERA.

April Underachiever: Brad Radke, RH Starter
Old stats: 2-2 on 14:8 K:BB in 26.1 IP over 5 GS with 34 H and 1 HR; 6.84 ERA.
Recommendation: deal.
Stats since recommendation: 2-0 on 9:5 K:BB in 25 IP over 4 GS with 19 H and 3 HR; 3.24 ERA.

New York Yankees: Orlando Hernandez, RH Starter
4-2 on 43:15 K:BB in 52.1 IP over 8 GS with 37 H, 8 HR, and 50-75 G-F; 3.44 ERA.

Clemens has seven wins and both Wells and Mussina already have six, but despite superior pitching for much of the year, El Duque's stuck at only 4. I've found both his PQS scores, regardless of some recent troubles in his last five outings for a 53430 PQS log, and his skill ratios far above average this season. His only problem has been a slight drop in G-F(.67 '02; .76 career) with a corresponding increase in HR/9(1.4 '02; 1.2 career). He's excelling in K:BB(2.9 '02; 2.2 career), K/9(7.4 '02; 7.1 career), and H/9(5.8 '02; 8.0 career), so I'd expect his wins to increase at a faster rate as long as he can quickly recover from his current trip to the DL with a strained upper back. Consider attempting to acquire Hernandez now while the injury depresses his value, then hope he returns in early June.

April Underachiever: Roger Clemens, RH Hall of Fame Starter
Old stats: 2-2 on 34:13 K:BB in 31 IP over 5 GS with 28 H and 2 HR; 5.52 ERA.
Recommendation: acquire.
Stats since recommendation: 5-0 on 38:13 K:BB in 36.2 IP over 5 GS with 9 H and 1 HR; 1.47 ERA.

Oakland: Billy Koch, RH Closer
7 Saves on 22:11 K:BB in 21.2 IP over 20 G with 16 H, 2 HR, and 29-15 G-F; 5.40 ERA.

Two recent pastings by Toronto in non-save situations have left Koch with unfairly inflated qualitative numbers. After a disastrous second half last season, he's either maintained or improved upon all his skill ratios. We're quite pleased with his K/9(9.1 '02; 7.5 career), H/9(6.6 '02; 8.4 career), and G-F(1.93 '02; 1.63 career), and his K:BB(2.0 '02; 2.1 career) and HR/9(.8 '02; .8 career) have remained at acceptable levels even including his bombings from the Blue Jays. I see no reason for him not to continue to excel against every other team, so definitely look to acquire Koch if you need a great closer.

April Underachiever: Jeff Tam, RH Setup
Old stats: 0-0 on 2:2 K:BB in 8.2 IP over 8 G with 13 H and 0 HR; 7.72 ERA.
Recommendation: deal.
Stats since recommendation: 0-0 on 3:5 K:BB in 10.2 IP over 11 G with 20 H and 0 HR; 5.91 ERA.

Seattle: Freddy Garcia, RH Starter
4-4 on 50:13 K:BB in 65.2 IP over 10 GS with 63 H, 10 HR, and 89-75 G-F; 3.63 ERA.

Garcia's performed at a very high level for much of this season, and he's excelled in his last five starts, compiling a 55553 PQS log. He's roughly maintaining his H/9(8.6 '02; 8.3 career) and G-F(1.19 '02; 1.34 career), but a rise in HR/9(1.4 '02; .9 career) has kept his ERA near 4.00. More importantly, he's posting an excellent K:BB(3.8 '02; 2.0 career) with a solid K/9(6.9 '02; 6.6 career), so there's little reason for Garcia not to continue at this level. I include him primarily because I feel he should have more than four wins given his current stat line, so look to acquire Garcia if you need to add an ace to your staff.

April Underachiever: Paul Abbott, RH Starter
Old stats: 1-1 on 17:14 K:BB in 18.2 IP over 4 GS with 24 H and 3 HR; 9.64 ERA.
Recommendation: deal.
Stats since recommendation: 0-2 on 5:6 K:BB in 7.2 IP over 3 G(1GS) with 16 H and 2 HR; 17.61 ERA before hitting the DL with inflammation of his right shoulder.

Tampa Bay: Ryan Rupe, RH Starter
3-5 on 42:8 K:BB in 47.2 IP over 8 GS with 45 H, 6 HR, and 72-45 G-F; 5.85 ERA.

Rupe's occasional struggles have overshadowed his great start to the season, and his qualitative stats don't truly reflect the effectiveness of his pitching thus far. His recent disastrous start in his current 5-start 53550 PQS log is the only start of the season where he hasn't posted a 5 or 3. While his upside ranks with almost any young pitcher in baseball at the moment, improvement in each of his skill ratios suggests that he can improve on his current ERA troubles. Rupe's K:BB(5.3 '02; 2.2 career) ranks with the best pitchers in baseball, and I see no reason to complain about his K/9(7.9 '02; 6.9 career), H/9(8.5 '02; 9.8 career), or HR/9(1.1 '02; 1.5 career). A rapidly rising G-F(1.60 '02; 1.01 career) indicates a potential further drop in HR/9, so he might even be entering the ranks of potential All-Stars; acquire Rupe now, as his perceived value should be at it's lowest point of the season.

April Underachiever: Jesus Colome, RH Reliever
Old stats: 1-2 on 11:7 K:BB in 10.2 IP over 8 G with 16 H and 1 HR; 9.28 ERA.
Recommendation: wait.
Stats since recommendation: 0-1 on 2:7 K:BB in 3.1 IP over 5 G with 9 H and 0 HR; 18.90 before earning a trip back to AAA Durham.

Texas: Dave Burba, RH Starter
3-1 on 44:20 K:BB in 53 IP over 9 GS with 50 H, 8 HR, and 56-70 G-F; 5.26 ERA.

I'm still not sure why Burba's ERA stays so high despite apparently solid skill ratios across the board. While he's not shown much improvement, and his growing HR/9(1.4 '02; 1.0 career) and G-F(.80 '02; 1.10 career) remain a concern, we're still willing to both personally start and recommend Burba to you. He should even start posting more wins if Texas can ever field a healthy offense. He's held respectable numbers in K:BB(2.2 '02; 1.9 career), K/9(7.5 '02; 7.3 career), and H/9(8.5 '02; 9.0 career), so I see no reason not to add him if he's available and you need a starter; acquire Burba, especially in 5x5 leagues where he helps a lot with strikeouts.

April Underachiever: Rudy Seanez, RH Reliever
Old stats: 0-2 on 10:6 K:BB in 7.2 IP over 7 G with 9 H and 2 HR; 7.04 ERA.
Recommendation: wait.
Stats since recommendation: 0-1 on 17:3 K:BB in 11 IP over 10 G with 9 H and 1 HR; 3.27 ERA.

Toronto: Kelvim Escobar, RH Closer
7 Saves on 24:12 K:BB in 23.1 IP over 18 G with 20 H, 4 HR, and 29-23 G-F; 4.63 ERA.

Toronto's poor start to the season left Escobar with less save opportunities than most closers, although he's also performed quite capably when needed in his expected role. His K:BB(2.0 '02; 1.8 career) appears a little weak compared to his normal relief command, although there's little wrong with his K/9(9.3 '02; 7.7 career) or H/9(7.7 '02; 8.8 career). A suddenly increased HR/9(1.5 '02; .9 career) should fall with his improving G-F(1.26 '02; 1.13 career), so I see no particular warning signs that suggest his ERA will remain at it's current level. Expect him to finish under 4.00 with around 30 saves; look to acquire him if you need relief help.

April Underachiever: Luke Prokopec, RH Starter
Old stats: 1-1 on 11:3 K:BB in 13 IP over 3 GS with 25 H and 2 HR; 8.31 ERA.
Recommendation: acquire.
Stats since recommendation: 1-5 on 13:15 K:BB in 32.1 IP over 6 GS with 35 H and 8 HR; 5.85 ERA.

Today's Fantasy Rx: Mark Prior debuts today at 7pm EDT. I believe ESPN2 will carry the game, but it's also available on Fox Sports Chicago Plus. We're planning to watch tonight and comment on his performance tomorrow.