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May 21st 2002 |
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Your Daily Fantasy Rx |
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by Tim Polko Note: The beginning of most stat lines includes data for H/AB for BA/OBP/SLG.
Arizona: Tony Womack, SS Womack turns 33 in September and his speed seems to disappear as he ages. An OBP stuck at .307 the last two years decreases his opportunities to steal, and even a solid SB% doesn't compensate for repeated trips to the dugout. He'll never hit for much power, so his G-F(1.66 '02; 1.60 career) doesn't concern me as it would for other players. However his weak averages are somewhat surprising given his still decent plate discipline. Although his #P/PA(3.99 '02; 3.73 career) has improved, his other skill ratios, including BB:K(.75 '02; 1.14 career), walk rate(.07 '02; .08 career), and contact rate(.84 '02; .87 career) illustrate the further deterioration of an inadequate leadoff hitter. I see no reason his BA can't head-up, although I'd only wait for improvement if you need his speed.
April Underachiever: Mark Grace, 1B
While I found pre-season MVP predictions for Sheffield reasonable, his performance so far certainly doesn't warrant those expectations. His normally superb plate discipline has fallen to only above average levels, as evidenced by his BB:K(.83 '02; 1.37 career), walk rate(.11 '02; .17 career), and #P/PA(3.41 '02; 3.62 career). He's still maintaining a solid contact rate(.87 '02; .88 career), but he's no longer hitting flyballs; his G-F(1.13 '02; .92 career) is even with the lowest level of his career. Even if Sheffield likely won't win the MVP, he's still a top outfielder and roto producer. I expect his average and production to head up if he can remain healthy, so if his medical reports are good, feel free to acquire him.
April Underachiever: Javy Lopez, C
Alou remains one of the most injury-prone baseball players, and even I sometimes forget that he'll turn 36 this year. He's extremely unlikely to stay in the lineup everyday and doesn't appear to be approaching his at-bats with the same discipline as in past years. His falling #P/PA(2.96 '02; 3.38 career) suggests that he's not working the count, and his lowered BB:K(.58 '02; .77 career) and walk rate(.08 '02; .10 career) also support that assumption. Alou still possesses the power necessary to boost his production since he's maintained a good contact rate(.86 '02; .86 career) and G-F(.93 '02; 1.00 career) ratio. His averages will increase with more playing time, so now might be a good time to acquire him, especially if you just need decent homers and RBI without significant at-bats.
April Underachiever: Fred McGriff, 1B
I was going to write about Todd Walker's lack of production until I wasn't able to find #P/PA or G-F data for him. These low averages surprise me since Boone's actually displaying more plate discipline through his rising BB:K(.53 '02; .43 career), walk rate(.11 '02; .08 career), and #P/PA(3.56 '02; 3.53 career). However his power hasn't fallen much in consideration of his contact rate(.79 '02; .82 career) and G-F(1.10 '02; .98 career). I'm most pleased with his speed development as he's already stolen more bases than any other year of his career since 1999, when he racked 17 steals. He should be able to at least maintain his speed as his average rises, although I'm hesitant to project a significant power increase. Only acquire Boone if you recognize he'll likely finish near his 1999 stat line of .280/14/72/17/56.
April Underachiever: Adam Dunn, OF
Many people expected Hollandsworth to resume his 368/.408/667 pace prior to last season's injury. While Agbayani has also struggled, Hollandsworth's problems suggest that he won't even approach last year's qualitative performance. However he's also compiling skill ratios relatively near his career norms, including his BB:K(.40 '02; .37 career), walk rate(.09 '02; .08 career), #P/PA(3.73 '02; 3.72 career), and contact rate(.77 '02; .78 career). Last year's numbers definitely appear to be a fluke produced by a small sample size. I'm more concerned about his skyrocketing G-F(1.85 '02; 1.53 career), as he increased to 1.85 from 1.68 last year and 1.35 in 2000. Hollandsworth possesses little potential as a power hitter, and even a Coors-boosted likely rising BA won't bring his value to expected levels. Deal him if you can find an owner that believes in Colorado's rehabilitative powers for bad hitters.
April Underachiever: Jose Ortiz, 2B
CJ continues to battle a sore left thumb, but Johnson performed poorly last season when he stayed relatively healthy. While he's certainly controlling the strike zone by maintaining or exceeding his normal BB:K(.53 '02; .45 career), walk rate(.12 '02; .12 career), and contact rate(.77 '02; .74 career), he's no longer a particularly disciplined hitter. His #P/PA(3.39 '02; 3.81 career) has fallen to a troubling level, and his G-F(2.07 '02; 1.06 career) equally troubles me. I find these weakening ratios extremely troubling; they may account for much of his power outage and average troubles. His skills may be careening back towards the weak offense displayed during his first years in the majors, and you should look to deal him even if his BA will improve a couple dozen points since I don't expect much quantitative production.
April Underachiever: Kevin Millar, OF
Biggio turns 27 in December, and while he still contributes to both the Astros and roto teams, he's no longer an elite player or likely to earn double-digit value. Significant erosion of his BB:K(.41 '02; .79 career), walk rate(.08 '02; .12 career), and contact rate(.79 '02; .84 career) leave him as an almost undisciplined hitter with little upside. His impressive rebound in 2001 looks more like the last great season of a probable Hall of Famer than a return to his peak years. You'll need to consider most any deal for Biggio as long as you'll receive a package according to his pre-season value instead of his current level of play.
April Underachiever: Morgan Ensberg, 3B
Beltre only turned 23 in April, so he still has plenty of time to mature into an All-Star. All his skill ratios remain at acceptable levels, and we're starting to see some growth in his abilities. This season, he's improved his BB:K(.62 '02; .53 career), contact rate(.88 '02; .83 career), and G-F(.97 '02; 1.09 career) while roughly maintaining his walk rate(.08 '02; .09 career) and #P/PA(3.66 '02; 3.76 career). LA needs to give him as many at-bats as possible near the top of the order since he still needs additional reps to make up for his difficulties last spring. I still think now is a good time to acquire Beltre since he should continue to develop headed into the second half of the season.
April Underachiever: Shawn Green
Perhaps EY's current attempted power hitting, demonstrated by his falling G-F(1.16 '02; 1.42 career), bears responsibility for his horrendous averages. His rather poor production in most categories largely cancels out his stolen base contributions, so we'll need to see improvement here quickly for him to regain his status as a viable roto speed threat. Fortunately, his plate discipline remains fairly decent, with an improved BB:K(1.86 '02; 1.52 career) and acceptable walk rate(.10 '02; .11 career) and #P/PA(3.54 '02; 3.61 career). His improving contact rate(.95 '02; .93 career) gives me another reason to recommend you acquire him if you need speed and a likely decent BA.
April Underachiever: Raul Casanova, C
Stevens remains a viable power source at 1B in NL leagues, and a perfectly acceptable cornerman in mixed leagues. However his current BA depresses his value rather significantly; after reaching .282 in 1999, his second highest full-season average, he fell to .265 in 2000 and .245 last year. His power appears fine given his solid statistical production, contact rate(.73 '02; .75 career), and G-F(1.26 '02; 1.31 career) ratio. The astonishing rise of the Expos' offense this season is based upon dramatically increased walk rates, and Stevens is no exception as he's doubled his .10 career rate to an excellent .20. He's also seen solid growth in BB:K(.73 '02; .41 career) even without improving his #P/PA(3.68 '02; 3.65 career). I see little reason for his BA not to begin increasing soon, so certainly consider attempting to acquire Stevens if you need offensive help.
April Underachiever: Orlando Cabrera, SS
Despite maintaining his plate patience with a nearly unchanged #P/PA(3.85 '02; 3.89 career), Alomar's producing at a much lower level than anyone anticipated even when considering Shea's unfriendliness towards hitters. His plate discipline appears far weaker with a plummeting BB:K(.50 '02; .94 career) and walk rate(.07 '02; .11 career). Alomar's power has also largely vanished, considering his falling contact rate(.86 '02; .88 career) and his worst G-F(1.76 '02; 1.44 career) ratio in nearly a decade. I'd deal him if anyone would pay his pre-season value after a historically great 2001, but you'll likely need to wait and hope he improves rather quickly.
April Underachiever: Jay Payton, OF
Lieberthal's .668 OPS is actually five points higher than his mark from last year, so perhaps repeated injuries have finally robbed him of his great bat. His BB:K(.41 '02; .54 career) and #P/PA(3.39 '02; 3.60 career) are definitely noticeably deteriorating, and his walk rate(.07 '02; .08 career) and contact rate(.84 '02; .85 career) are also slightly down. He still owns some power as his G-F(.80 '02; .92 career) remains at an appropriate level, but I'm concerned that Lieberthal won't be able to approach his production from 1997, 1999, or 2000. If you can find someone willing to give you a decent catcher in return, remain willing to deal Lieberthal for the right price.
April Underachiever: Travis Lee, 1B
Brown appears locked in battle with Chad Hermansen for the leadoff and centerfield jobs, and unless Hermansen somehow begins displaying a level of skill unseen in his stat line for a few years, I see no reason for Brown not to continue starting. He's actually showing almost across-the-board improvement in his skill ratios, including a very healthy BB:K(.88 '02; .79 career). His walk rate(.12 '02; .11 career), #P/PA(3.61 '02; 3.68 career), and contact rate(.87 '02; .87 career) are right at his career marks, and his G-F(1.74 '02; 2.79 career) even offers some promise of future development. It's fallen from 3.11 in 1999 to 2.46 in 2000 and 2.00 in 2001 before dropping to this year's level, and while I don't expect more than a couple homers this season, we'll likely predict a greater increase for next season. Acquire Brown now while Hermansen's increased playing time keeps Brown's value low.
April Underachiever: Jason Kendall, C
Trammell always seems to perform at a higher level when starting, and perhaps the continual injury problems of players like Nevin and Lankford will afford Bruce Bochy the opportunity to start Trammell more regularly. All his skill ratios indicate significant promise; his power is certainly intact given an improved contact rate(.92 '02; .82 career) and steady G-F(.90 '02; .81 career). Most impressively, his BB:K(1.75 '02; .65 career) has almost tripled this season over his career rate, and there's nothing wrong with either his walk rate(.14 '02; .11 career) or #P/PA(3.67 '02; 3.68 career). Like Brown, look to acquire Trammell now, as Bubba will likely approach last year's numbers, along with perhaps posting a career best BA over .290.
April Underachiever: Ramon Vazquez, SS
While the Giants need more production out of the leadoff, Shinjo's made great strides towards becoming a decent #1 hitter after a season as a fourth outfielder for the Mets. He's keeping the ball on the ground with a great G-F(1.62 '02; 1.03 '01) for someone with decent speed, and his contact rate(.87 '02; .83) indicates his strikeouts are decreasing. More importantly, he's noticeably improved his plate discipline, as shown by increases in his BB:K(.61 '02; .36 '01), walk rate(.08 '02; .06 '01), and #P/PA(3.79 '02; 3.57 '01). I don't consider Shinjo to have especially high upside, but he's very likely to post an above average BA with a little bit of quantitative production for the rest of the season. If you need a fifth outfielder who'll see a good number of at-bats while not hurting you, look to acquire Shinjo.
April Underachiever: Jeff Kent, 2B and Lost Son of Evil Knievel
Polanco will continue to start most games until St. Louis finally completes a deal for either an outfielder or third baseman, likely relegating Polanco back to utility duty. He's traditionally a high average hitter with a low BA due to his free-swinging ways, but his plate discipline has dropped even further below the minimum acceptable level. His BB:K(.31 '02; .57 career) and walk rate(.03 '02; .05 career) are both poor, and even an apparently small drop in his contact rate(.90 '02; .92 career) costs him a couple of base hits. While I still like his flexibility as a UT or MI, you should likely look to upgrade Polanco's roster spot before the Cardinals make a trade; deal him now before his value vanishes.
April Underachiever: Tino Martinez, 1B
Click
here to read the previous article.
Please e-mail your comments to
tim@rotohelp.com. |
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