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May 19th 2002 |
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Your Daily Fantasy Rx |
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by Tim Polko
Colorado: 6 Home games: 3 vs. San Diego; 3 vs. San Francisco. Boston: 7 Home games: 3 vs. Chicago White Sox; 4 vs. New York Yankees.
Chicago Cubs: 7 games: 4 Home vs. Pittsburgh; 3 Road at Houston.
Cincinnati: 7 games: 1 Road at St. Louis; 3 Home vs. Florida; 3 Road at Atlanta.
Arizona: 5 Home games: 2 vs. San Francisco; 3 vs. Los Angeles. Atlanta: 5 games: 2 Road at Montreal; 3 Home vs. Cincinnati. Minnesota: 5 games: 2 Home vs. Texas; 3 Road at Anaheim. San Francisco: 5 Road games: 2 at Arizona; 3 at Colorado. All other teams play six games.
Diamond Challenge Several interesting free agents are available today, and we'd already planned to acquire Corey Patterson and Nomar Garciaparra from this group. Along with next week's Vlad pickup, that would account for our 4 FA moves. However, we also need to take a closer look at these players to see if we want to spend our moves now. We'll list the potential free agent, followed by the player he'd logically replace in our lineup. We already own Bonds, and we're not interested in Odalis Perez due to his relatively low K/9 and the Dodgers' poor offense.
Cost AB BA HR RBI/R SB BB:K Fick 600 140 .286 5 14/22 0 15:22 Hall 320 126 .198 2 15/10 0 6:8 Tampa plans to sit Hall for most of this week to both rest his sore thumb and work on his defensive fundamentals. I just don't expect Fick to continue at his current pace, and we'd rather have the extra $280 available for either superstar offensive players or stud pitchers. Despite likely losing a week of stats, we're confident in Hall's eventual rebound.
Cost AB BA HR RBI/R SB BB:K Nomar 1120 151 .298 4 31/29 1 11:13 Rollins 940 181 .315 4 17/27 8 15:28
Cost AB BA HR RBI/R SB BB:K Patterson 440 148 .318 1 12/16 10 10:22 Je.Giambi 500 147 .279 7 16/25 0 26:37 We'll likely continue to use both these slots most of the time instead of keeping them in a straight platoon with Uribe and Pierre. Our BA and Runs are great right now, but we could use more HR and RBI while not losing ground in steals. If we did keep these players in a platoon, Patterson would see 43 games at home, 27 for Rollins, 26 for Giambi, and 17 for Nomar. I don't believe the extra RBI and likely BA necessitate adding Nomar, especially when considering the loss in steals and $180 in cap room. The Cubs' offense will also likely remain inferior to Oakland's production, and gaining an extra $60, 16 home games, and two dozen steals isn't worth the drop in HR, RBI, Runs, and likely BA. Another dilemma we face is when to add Bobby Hill for Luis Castillo. We expect them to produce similarly over the remainder of the year, and we could really use the extra $500 in salary. However, until Hill's BA heats up, we're not willing to risk losing ground in steals. Apparently we're going to leave our offense intact for the week.
Cost IP K:BB HR H G-F M.Williams 900 15 11:4 0 11 2.36 Julio 750 21.2 15:8 4 21 .97 Here we find a logical and expected change. We're weak in saves largely because we failed to own Williams, Guardado, and Gagne from the beginning of the year, but we've compensated by staying fairly lucky with our starting pitchers. Baltimore's schedule disintegrates as they spend the next two weeks against Oakland and Seattle before facing the Yankees and Dodgers. Upcoming opponents also include San Diego, Philadelphia, Arizona, San Francisco, Anaheim, and Texas; the next truly weak team they face is Tampa Bay at the end of July. The Pirates are done in Colorado and only have five games left in Houston all year. They spend the next two weeks against the struggling Cubs and Cardinals before facing Montreal, Milwaukee, Anaheim, and Cincinnati. Include factors such as their superior rotation, bullpen, and much weaker division and we're willing to risk their weaker offensive production. Since we're not spending moves on either Nomar or Patterson, we can safely grab Williams, pick up Vlad next week, and still retain one move for later in the year.
RP(4) With Kim and Guardado only seeing 5 games each, we'll continue to leave Gagne starting until we're comfortable with our position in saves. Randy's an automatic start, and we'd like to keep Maddux and Vazquez going since they have a chance to double. This likely leaves us with two open slots. While we're interested in both Derek Lowe(Mon:CHW(Ritchie); Sat:NYY(O.Hernandez)), and Barry Zito(Tue:BAL(R.Lopez); Sun:TB(Kennedy)), we've been planning to add this week's Oakland pitcher since the beginning of the year. Zito's likely the best starter on that team at the moment, and he's coming off a 50545 in his last five starts. Lowe's facing two good offenses, so we'll just add Zito this week. We need to cut someone, but with Lawrence missing the double in Colorado and now set to double next week at home against Colorado and Milwaukee, he's no longer an acceptable drop. Russ Ortiz has dominated in two straight starts since we first almost dropped him, and Maddux might double this week. There's really not a single starter we want to drop at the moment. So we'll cut loose Bonds this week. We can see how each pitcher performs for the next week, and then cut one of them when we pick up Vlad as a free agent. The extra week of data should help us make a better pick, although Maddux and Ortiz will likely lead our list. Pedro, Schilling, Mussina, Morris, and Hudson all have interesting one start weeks, so we'll just set Randy, Zito, and Gagne for now, and determine our other pitchers after we choose our lineup. Colorado's home for another week, and we want to make every effort to play Sosa, Drew, Dunn, and Jason Giambi due to their teams' seven game schedules. Sosa looks especially interesting as he plays his three road games in Houston. Berkman and Ward both have three home games. San Diego's in Colorado and Milwaukee, so we'd also like to keep Klesko active. Along with Helton, Pierre, and Walker, we've used all our 1B, OF, and DH spaces while leaving Ichiro and Jeremy Giambi benched. To leave enough room to take at least half-decent pitchers, we're going to bench ARod and his six road games in Minnesota and Kansas City. Rollins isn't great but we like Sosa's upside this week a lot more than what ARod might accomplish. We obviously need to take the least expensive pitchers, so we'll grab Vazquez's potential double and Hudson at home against Tampa. Unfortunately, we only have $520 left for a starting pitcher, so this arrangement won't work. We'll solve the problem by benching Berkman for the week and instead starting Jeremy Giambi at home against Baltimore and Tampa Bay. That move leaves us with 1340 for a starter, and while Clemens in Boston and Oswalt in St. Louis both offer a lot of upside, Matt Morris at home against Reynolds is a safer percentage play.
C Jorge Posada 990 C Toby Hall 320 1B Todd Helton 1980 1B Jason Giambi 1640 2B Luis Castillo 1000 2B Alfonso Soriano 900 3B Eric Chavez 1070 3B Shea Hillenbrand 450 SS Jimmy Rollins 940 SS Juan Uribe 500 OF Larry Walker 1530 OF Juan Pierre 1180 OF J.D. Drew 1010 OF Adam Dunn 710 OF Daryle Ward 620 OF Jeremy Giambi 500 DH Sammy Sosa 1900 DH Ryan Klesko 1300
SP Randy Johnson 1990 SP Matt Morris 1190 SP Tim Hudson 1170 SP Javier Vazquez 1100 SP Barry Zito 1080 SP Eric Gagne 500 RP Jason Isringhausen 1290 RP Byung-Hyun Kim 1200 RP Mike Williams 900 RP Eddie Guardado 900
We're also going to ignore the offensive free agents here, and instead picking up Mike Williams. We'll rectify a serious buy error by dumping Keith Foulke. Next week, we'll likely pick up Vlad and dump Jorge Julio, but there's no need to dump Julio right now.
SP(6) No starts: Schilling, Clemens, Hudson, Ortiz, and Wood.
RP(4) Gagne stays active in our quest to gain some ground in saves, from our five closers, we'll sit Kim since the difference in salaries between him and Guardado allows us to deploy more offense. For the other five starting pitchers, our selections are base more on attrition. We can't start Lawrence in Colorado, and we'd rather not start Maddux and Oswalt on the road. We'll also pick up Zito in this week, along with dropping Greg Maddux, since Zito seems likely to post a few upcoming wins; we can also keep Mussina on the bench instead of facing Halladay. We'll drop Maddux since he normally posts a lower strikeout rate than any other starter even comparable to his salary level, and we're not too worried about ERA or WHIP. The Colorado platoon remains active, and with the other changes, we have just enough cap room to carry Sosa instead of Berkman, although we'll have to bench ARod and his three road games.
C Jorge Posada 990 C Toby Hall 320 1B Todd Helton 1980 1B Jason Giambi 1640 2B Luis Castillo 1000 2B Alfonso Soriano 900 3B Eric Chavez 1070 3B Shea Hillenbrand 450 SS Jimmy Rollins 940 SS Juan Uribe 500 OF Larry Walker 1530 OF Juan Pierre 1180 OF J.D. Drew 1010 OF Adam Dunn 710 OF Daryle Ward 620 OF Jeremy Giambi 500 DH Sammy Sosa 1900 DH Ryan Klesko 1300
SP Randy Johnson 1990 SP Pedro Martinez 1770 SP Matt Morris 1190 SP Javier Vazquez 1100 SP Barry Zito 1080 SP Eric Gagne 500 RP Jason Isringhausen 1290 RP Mike Williams 900 RP Eddie Guardado 900 RP Jorge Julio 750
We have no relievers on the bench, so we'll stay with Smoltz, Isringhausen, Kim, and Guardado until further notice.
SP(6) We'll sit Pedro since we'd rather have Schilling going against a much weaker offensive team here, leaving us with Randy, Schilling, Hudson, Morris, Vazquez, and Gagne. Hall will sit since he likely won't play until next weekend. To maximize both games played and give our players the best home/road and ballpark advantages, we'll make several changes to our normal lineup. ARod, Steve Cox, and Floyd will all sit as they spend the week on the road; we don't mind playing Jimenez for ARod since San Diego spends half the week in Coors. The Colorado platoon stays active, and we'll start the following players, each scheduled for seven games: Jason Giambi, Nick Johnson, Sosa, Patterson, Dunn, and Drew. With out last offensive slot, we only have the funds available for Daryle Ward or Jeremy Giambi, and Ward should play six games since Houston isn't scheduled against any left-handers. We don't want to bench Berkman, but we can't find the extra $950 necessary to keep him active.
C Paul Lo Duca 1640 C A.J. Pierzynski 1000 1B Jason Giambi 3320 1B Nick Johnson 1200 2B Alfonso Soriano 1800 2B Jose Ortiz 1500 3B Eric Chavez 2270 3B Aramis Ramirez 1590 SS Juan Uribe 1300 SS D'Angelo Jimenez 1000 OF Larry Walker 2790 OF J.D. Drew 2310 OF Juan Pierre 1880 OF Adam Dunn 1610 OF Daryle Ward 1590 OF Corey Patterson 1370 DH Todd Helton 3400 DH Sammy Sosa 3480
SP Randy Johnson 3580 SP Curt Schilling 3160 SP Tim Hudson 2660 SP Matt Morris 2650 SP Javier Vazquez 2600 SP Kerry Wood 2300 SP Eric Gagne 1230 RP John Smoltz 2610 RP Jason Isringhausen 2370 RP Byung-Hyun Kim 2230 RP Eddie Guardado 1690
Click
here to read the previous article.
Please e-mail your comments to
tim@rotohelp.com. |
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