Today's Fantasy Rx

Today, our May roto prospect series concludes with NL pitchers.

Note: For those of you unfamiliar with FAAB, each team normally has $100 to spend throughout the year on all free agent pickups. Most injury replacements or speculative picks go for a buck or two, hot starters go for $5-$10, top prospects go in the $10-$30 range, and we've seen $90+ bids on top players traded into the league.

Arizona: Eric Knott, 27, LHP Swingman
2-2 on 33:3 K:BB in 44 IP over 7 G(6GS) with 40 H, 4 HR, and a 3.89 ERA at AAA Tucson(PCL).

I probably would have selected LHP Chris Capuano if not for his untimely season-ending tear of his left ulnar collateral ligament. However Knott has always displayed excellent command and his solid H/9 and HR/9 ratios support his great start. He's certainly not a traditional prospect due to his age, but I see no reason why the Diamondbacks won't use him instead of the fading Brian Anderson. If they give him a shot, he'll definitely be worth a few bucks of FAAB to acquire, especially in 4x4 leagues where his solid ERA/WHIP will help more than his average strikeout rate.

Atlanta: Joey Dawley, 30, RHP Starter
3-1 on 40:11 K:BB in 35.2 IP over 7 G(6GS) with 27 H, 3 HR, and a 4.26 ERA at AAA Richmond(IL).

Dawley's a former Orioles' prospect that needed to spend four years in the Independent Leagues before Atlanta gave him another chance in 1999. In his first full year of starting at AA last season, he posted a 130:46 K:BB in 127.1 IP with only 95 hits. His 2002 numbers show a pitcher building on his recent success and who deserves a chance to start in the majors. Unfortunately he'll likely need to wait until next season since the Braves already have Albie Lopez in the bullpen due to their excess starters. The next wave of Braves' pitching is slowly moving towards the majors, and Dawley deserves a chance as a more experienced mentor for the true youngsters. FAAB him for two bucks and you might find a pitcher with double-digit value.

Chicago Cubs: Mark Prior, 21, RHP Starter
1-0 on 20:6 K:BB in 12.1 IP over 2 GS with 7 H, 1 HR, and a 0.00 ERA at AAA Iowa(PCL).

RHP reliever Will Cunnane deserves a major league roster spot over someone like Pat Mahomes but the Cubs seem unwilling to trust his solid statistical history. Prior's the next most proven commodity, and the Cubs have let him reach 111 pitches in both his first two AAA starts. He'll likely join the staff for next Wednesday's night game at home against Pittsburgh (Does anyone reading this have access to tickets in the lower deck? We might just wind up watching at home if we can't get decent seats). Prior should have the most impact this season of any player not currently in the majors, and deserves a maximum FAAB bid under almost any circumstances if he's somehow available in your league.

Cincinnati: Trever Miller, 28, LHP Reliever
4-1 on 28:7 K:BB in 24.1 IP over 19 G(1GS) with 25 H, 3 HR, and a 2.96 ERA at AAA Louisville(IL).

Miller deserves another chance in the big leagues after two sparkling seasons in the minors; he even started fifteen games for AAA Pawtucket last season and showed promise despite a slightly low strikeout rate and elevated hit rate. Now he appears ready to reassert himself as a viable major league left-handed reliever. He has a good chance of appearing in Cincinnati later in the season, but I don't expect him to have any use other than potential roster filler. Ignore Miller unless your injury-depleted roster requires his help.

Colorado: Matt Whiteside, 34, RHP Reliever
3-2 on 25:5 K:BB in 25 IP over 17 G with 22 H, 3 HR, and a 2.88 ERA at AAA Colorado Springs(PCL).

We've found a couple of former middle relievers putting up great AAA numbers here. Unfortunately Whiteside won't have any value unless he manages to pass several competent relievers to emerge as Colorado's closer, a very unlikely proposition. Ignore Whiteside while he's in the Rockies' system.

Florida: Nate Teut, 26, LHP Swingman
2-1 on 29:11 K:BB in 35 IP over 7 G(6GS) with 31 H, 5 HR, and a 3.60 ERA at AAA Calgary(PCL).

One marginally weak start (3:1 K:BB in 4.1 IP with 8 H and 5 ER) sent Teut right back to the minors, but he continues to look like a potentially solid second left-hander or fifth starter. He still makes the Cubs look foolish for dealing him for Jesus Sanchez as Teut is performing better and saves Florida more than a million dollars in salary. Like most soft-tossing lefties, you should wait for Teut to establish himself in the majors before taking a risk on him; likely ignore him until he's seen moderately extensive major league time.

Houston: Pete Munro, 26, RHP Swingman
3-1 on 43:10 K:BB in 41.1 IP over 11 G(5GS) with 32 H, 2 HR, and a 2.83 ERA at AAA Tucson(PCL).

Wayne Franklin and Jeriome Robertson have also excelled this year but Munro's slightly ahead of both of them. While he hasn't truly developed since his great year at AA Trenton back in 1997, he's now showing the dominance and command necessary to deserve a major league job. I remain hesitant to pick up any Houston reliever due to the potential problems of Astros' Field, although Wagner and Dotel are certain exceptions to this strategy. Ignore Munro until he displays consistency at a higher level.

Los Angeles: Guillermo Mota, 28, RHP Reliever
1 Save on 24:4 K:BB in 21.2 IP over 10 G with 19 H, 0 HR, and a 2.91 ERA at AAA Las Vegas(PCL).

His problem in the majors seems to be a slightly low strikeout rate, so these numbers are a definite improvement on his previous performance. I suspect he'll wind up closing somewhere for at least a season or two at some point, although he needs to consistently maintain these numbers over the entire year. He'll be called up again by the Dodgers when any reliever goes on the DL, and he shouldn't hurt you if you need to FAAB someone for a buck or two.

Milwaukee: Jayson Durocher, 27, RHP Reliever
1-0 on 25:9 K:BB in 19 IP over 14 G with 15 H, 2 HR, and a 2.84 ERA at AAA Indianapolis(IL).

Durocher's displayed occasional command and dominance after his conversion to relief pitching back in 1998, but his rather impressive 2002 performance thus far seems slightly out of character with his statistical history. I approve of GMs that give minor league free agents a chance to contribute in the majors, although the Brewers are a bad fit for Durocher. Milwaukee already has a full roster once Leskanic and Fox return with a rotation of Sheets, Rusch, Wright, Quevedo, Neugebauer, and anyone from Figueroa, Stull, Cabrera, and Rigdon as backups or spot starters. The bullpen's also fairly loaded with Leskanic, Fox, DeJean, Vizcaino, King, and Nomura even before we consider long relievers. Ignore Durocher this season but remember him as potential roster filler for the future.

Montreal: Julio Manon, 28, RHP Starter
5-1 on 29:15 K:BB in 44.1 IP over 7 GS with 26 H, 0 HR, and a 2.23 ERA at AAA Ottawa(IL).

Manon's spent the last two years working his way back to the high minors after he wound up with the St. Paul Saints in the second half of 1999. He showed some promise as a starter even in AAA last year with a 67:34 K:BB in 84 IP with 71 H and 11 HR, although his 2002 numbers don't show much improvement aside from the lowered homer rate. I think Manon would have more success in the bullpen where he could focus more on strikeouts, and I'm concerned that major league hitters would expose his somewhat questionable command fairly quickly. Ignore Manon if the Expos need him until he proves himself over at least a month of consistent playing time.

New York Mets: Bobby M. Jones, 30, LHP Swingman
1-4 on 30:12 K:BB in 33 IP over 10 G(5GS) with 23 H, 4 HR, and a 3.82 ERA at AAA Norfolk(IL).

The other (left-handed) Bobby Jones continues his recovery from a 2001 mostly lost to arm problems and spent exclusively in the minors. His AAA numbers depict a pitcher ready to return to at least a long relief role in the majors, and New York should consider adding him to the roster for a second time. Ignore him until he finally proves he can maintain this solid command in the majors, although we'll consider picking him up if his early stats are solid and we need pitching help.

Philadelphia: Brett Myers, 21, RHP Starter
4-3 on 40:12 K:BB in 56.1 IP over 8 GS with 38 H, 4 HR, and a 2.40 ERA at AAA Scranton/Wilkes-Barre(IL).

We've hesitated jumping on the Brett Bandwagon as his AA stats didn't really impress me. A 130:43 K:BB in 156 IP with 156 H and 21 HR suggest a pitcher with great command and fairly good movement without offering much dominance or low homer rates. He's still not dominating hitters, and I don't expect him to peak as an ace, although he seems like a potentially excellent #2 starter. Myers is not Mark Prior, but I could understand spending a significant amount of FAAB to acquire him. I'm sold on his skills even as I retain my concerns about his K/9 rate and workload over the last few years.

Pittsburgh: Bronson Arroyo, 25, RHP Starter
2-4 on 41:7 K:BB in 45 IP over 7 G(6GS) with 40 H, 3 HR, and a 2.60 ERA at AAA Nashville(PCL).

Al Reyes has a nice 25:7 K:BB and 2.05 ERA, but Arroyo's overall ratios are far more impressive. He continues to dominate hitters at AAA while not demonstrating either acceptable command or dominance in the majors. I see no real difference in his ratios between his starting and relief work, although the sample sizes remain small. His statistical profile suggests a potentially dominant reliever if properly developed, though in consideration of his major league history, ignore him if the Pirates add him to their roster this season until he starts impressing in the big leagues.

San Diego: Brandon Villafuerte, 26, RHP Reliever
3-1 on 24:5 K:BB in 22 IP over 16 G with 14 H, 0 HR, and a 2.05 ERA at AAA Portland(PCL).

Villafuerte's numbers remain superior to LHP Jason Kershner, although either could be called up at some point soon depending on if the Padres need to replace either an injured right-hander or left-hander. He's spent the last two seasons striking out a batter per inning in relief, and his command and hit rates both appear to be improving as he gains experience. His 2002 numbers are superb for a reliever in the PCL, and I definitely think he could help most bullpens. Feel free to FAAB Villafuerte if you need an extra pitcher whenever the Padres promote him.

San Francisco: Kurt Ainsworth, 23, RHP Starter
2-2 on 31:4 K:BB in 25 IP over 4 GS with 23 H, 3 HR, and a 3.24 ERA at AAA Fresno(PCL).

In three starts for San Francisco, Ainsworth went 1-1 on 9:8 K:BB in 16 IP with 16 H, 0 HR, and a 1.69 ERA. His high walk rate earned him a return trip to Fresno, but his absolute dominance in the PCL necessitates a call-up at the first available opportunity. While he may peak as a #3 starter, he's demonstrated excellent ERA/WHIP upside. Certainly spend as much FAAB as necessary to acquire him whenever he returns to the majors.

St. Louis: Les Walrond, 25, LHP Starter
3-1 on 23:10 K:BB in 24.1 IP over 4 GS with 23 H, 4 H, and a 4.07 ERA at AAA Memphis(PCL).

Walrond excelled for A+ Potomac in 2000 with nearly a 3 K:BB and over a strikeout per inning. However his stats collapsed upon reaching AA last year to a poor 67:46 K:BB in 81.1 IP. Now he's re-emerging as the third of a trio of still-young St. Louis lefties, along with Ankiel and Bud Smith, harboring significant future potential for the Cardinals' rotation. He earned this promotion to AAA after a sparkling April in at AA New Haven where he compiled a 2-1 record on 31:10 K:BB in 22.2 IP with 19 H, 2 HR, and a 2.42 ERA. I believe he'll need another half-season to prove himself in the minors, but I can see the Cardinals giving him a chance in the rotation as soon as September. FAAB him for a few bucks if you need a decent starter, although I wouldn't expect great stats until the second half of 2003.

We'll likely be posting fairly late in the day tomorrow due to other commitments, so I'm including our IC roster for this weekend in today's column.

Internet Challenge

Starters(6)
Pedro Martinez: Sat:SEA(Baldwin)
Curt Schilling: Sat:PHI(Duckworth)
Mike Mussina: Fri:MIN(R.Reed)
Roger Clemens: Sun:MIN(Kinney)
Matt Morris: Sat:CIN(Rijo)
Kerry Wood: Sun:@MIL(Quevedo)
Eric Gagne: 3 Home vs. Montreal

No starts: Randy, Maddux, Brown, Vazquez, Oswalt, Lawrence

Relievers(4)
Keith Foulke: 3 Home vs. Anaheim
Jason Isringhausen: 3 Home vs. Cincinnati
Byung-Hyun Kim: 3 Home vs. Philadelphia
Eddie Guardado: 3 Road at New York Yankees
Jorge Julio: 3 Home vs. Tampa Bay

We really don't have any pitching decisions as we'll deploy our five starters at home along with Gagne to keep boosting our saves. Foulke also sits as we can't afford expensive saves.

These moves leave us 270 over the cap even with Rollins and Jeremy Giambi active as our DHs. The easy fix is to sub Klesko in for Jason Giambi, a move that leaves us 50 under the cap and nicely positioned for the weekend.

We plan to add at least one free agent on Sunday between Nomar, Patterson, and Mike Williams, although we don't like any of them at the moment due to tough weekend schedules with Seattle in Boston, Chicago struggling against everyone, and Pittsburgh in Houston.

The Umpire Hunter
Week 7b: May 17-May 19

C 	Jorge Posada		990
C	Toby Hall		320
1B	Todd Helton		1980
1B	Ryan Klesko		1300
2B	Luis Castillo		1000
2B	Alfonso Soriano		900
3B	Eric Chavez		1070
3B	Shea Hillenbrand	450
SS	Alex Rodriguez		1880
SS	Jimmy Rollins		940
OF	Larry Walker		1530
OF	Juan Pierre		1180
OF	Lance Berkman		1320
OF	J.D. Drew		1010
OF	Adam Dunn		710
OF	Daryle Ward		620
DH	Jeremy Giambi		500		
DH	Juan Uribe		500

SP	Pedro Martinez		1770
SP	Curt Schilling		1540
SP	Mike Mussina		1380
SP	Roger Clemens		1240
SP	Matt Morris		1190
SP	Eric Gagne		500
RP	Jason Isringhausen	1280
RP	Byung-Hyun Kim		1200
RP	Eddie Guardado		900
RP	Jorge Julio		750

Today's Fantasy Rx: We were very impressed by Star Wars, and after the disastrous Spider-Man, we found Episode II definitely worth a full price ticket to the midnight showing (even if they started 30 minutes late because "they wanted the concessions' line to go down first". Highlight the following section with the cursor if you're interested in some spoilers/highlights:

Two plot developments vastly increased my enjoyment of the film. First, Jar Jar was responsible for allying the Imperial Army with the Republic and Chancellor Palpatine/Darth Sidious/Soon-to-be Emperor Palpatine. Second, Anakin lost his left hand in a battle with Count Dooku, who's Yoda's former Jedi student and who also taught Qui-Gon, who mentored Obi-Wan, who mentored both Skywalkers before his death.

Best line in the entire movie delivered by Obi-Wan to Anakin: "You'll be the death of me".

Best scene in the movie: Yoda's lightsaber duel with Dooku.

Some of the more virulent fights in the next few months will likely occur between kids and athletes playing the Episode II Video Game over who gets to play the Muppet in the duels. However despite this potential outbreak of violence, we heartily recommend the movie as perhaps the best entry in the double-trilogy if not for some simply insipid dialogue throughout most of the movie. I can't figure out whether to blame the actors, primarily Hayden Christensen and Natalie Portman, the writers, or the director for the plethora of useless throwaway lines, so I'll instead focus on the fun moviegoing experience. As long as you don't mind occasional diatribes on the infrastructure and necessity of representative government, you'll likely also enjoy the film.

Another development in recent moviemaking has also impressed me. Some very respected, exceptional, and, frankly, old British actors, previously known primarily for their stage work and occasional Hollywood performance, are rapidly climbing the list of Actors whose Movies have Grossed the Most Cash. I believe Harrison Ford and Tom Cruise continue to lead everyone here, but Ian McKellan(three Lord of the Rings and at least two X-Men movies), Christopher Lee(three LOTR movies, Episode II, and likely Episode III), and, of course, Patrick Stewart(at least 4 Star Treks and 2 X-Men movies), are all quickly rising. Lee in particular should see his personal box office rise to somewhere around $1.5 billion on the strength of five movies each likely to earn around $300 million or more each in just the U.S market. After a few decades of exceptional acting not known to much of the world, we find it especially heartening to see these cinema stalwarts gain worldwide acclaim and commercial success.