Today's Fantasy Rx

Please refer to yesterday's article to see the changes made to the rating system.

Unlike the fourteen American League pitchers who earned a 1 for their performance this season, thirty-five National Leaguers managed this feat.

Most acknowledged NL staff aces qualified, including Tom Glavine, Randy Johnson, Al Leiter, Matt Morris, Roy Oswalt, and Javier Vazquez.

Other established starting pitchers include A.J. Burnett, Matt Clement, Jeff D'Amico, Kevin Jarvis, and Kevin Millwood

Relative newcomers in 2002 include Brandon Duckworth, Josh Fogg, Carlos Hernandez, Kazuhisa Ishii, and Vicente Padilla.

Former starters include Omar Daal and Scott Williamson.

Right-handed middle relievers that qualified include Brian Boehringer, Joe Borowski, Kane Davis, Darren Holmes, Scott Sullivan, Luis Vizcaino, Dave Weathers, and Tim Worrell.

Left-handed middle relievers that qualified include Kent Mercker, Eddie Oropesa, Mike Remlinger, and Scott Stewart.

The five NL closers that qualified are Eric Gagne, Danny Graves, Jason Isringhausen, Byung-Hyun Kim, and Jose Mesa.

Please refer here if you'd like to take another look at some of our methodology.

LPR Code Description
1 - K:BB of 2.0+, K/9 of 6.0+, HR/9 of 1.0-, and H/9 of 9.0- thus far in 2002
2 - K:BB of 2.0+, K/9 of 6.0+, HR/9 of 1.0-, and H/9 of 9.0- in the second half of 2001
3 - K:BB of 2.0+, K/9 of 6.0+, HR/9 of 1.0-, and H/9 of 9.0- in the first half of 2001
4 - K:BB of 2.0+, K/9 of 6.0+, HR/9 of 1.0-, and H/9 of 9.0- for all of 2000

a - DOM of 55% or more in 2002
b - DOM of 55% or more in 2001
c - DOM of 55% or more in 2000
x - DIS of 20% or less in 2002
y - DIS of 20% or less in 2001
z - DIS of 20% or less in 2000

(Note: I used the PQS logs from Baseball Forecaster to create these ratings, and I strongly recommend that you purchase a copy if you haven't already.

Here are the first set of 2002 in-season LPR ratings which include all games played through May 9th. We ranked pitchers by the highest LIMA rating and then by the best PQS rating. Starting pitchers, if necessary, are ranked by their performance over their last five starts, which I include after the pitchers name in chronological order, ending with his most recent appearance.

1234
abcxyz - Randy Johnson(54555). As one of only two major league pitchers to not post a single non-dominant PQS this season in five or more starts, you must view Randy as the unquestioned best pitcher in the game. We'll remain ever so slightly concerned about his age and injury history while we look to trade for him in every NL league.

123
Jason Isringhausen
Jose Mesa

Our early predictions of greatness of Isringhausen look right on target as his skills remain at an excellent level. Mesa won't match last year's save total but he'll keep any team in competition for saves.

124
abcyz - Al Leiter(05540)

Two 0 starts show his inconsistency but I still consider him the most underappreciated starter in baseball.

234
abxy - Brian Lawrence(45434)

Robb Nen
Felix Rodriguez

FRod's control problems rank with one of the most surprising developments of the season as one of the most consistent middle relievers in the majors suddenly can't find the plate; explore a possible trade if you own him. Nen's still a solid closer, especially considering the Giants' great starting pitching this year. Lawrence is simply pitching great and certainly justifying his place on even most Challenge teams, however beware that two of his next three Monday-Sunday double-start weeks are on the road and include a stop in Colorado.

12
abxyz - Javier Vazquez(35454)
abx - Roy Oswalt(45525)

Mike Remlinger
Scott Sullivan
Dave Weathers

Vazquez and Oswalt are probably the best starters under 26 in the majors. Both have emerged as dominant forces in every roto league due to their excellent control and therefore impeccable ratios. Remlinger, Sullivan, and Weathers are very underrated considering both their helpful stats and excellent skills; all of them could even help in some mixed leagues.

13
Byung-Hyun Kim
Luis Vizcaino

Kim is easily the best five-category closer in baseball due to his multiple-inning endurance and strikeout rate. Vizcaino should be closing for Milwaukee, so you should certainly explore adding him on teams needing saves before he gets that opportunity.

14
Scott Williamson

One of our biggest regrets of the season might wind up our trade last week of a $10 Neugebauer, $5 Felix Rodriguez, and $1 Scott Williamson for Odalis Perez and throw-in Ricky Bottalico. Neugebauer has the most upside, and FRod could close, but Williamson could earn double-digit value even in middle relief, and he's the next logical closer in Cincinnati if they trade Graves. He's definitely someone you should consider acquiring if you need saves help, although as you can see, we'd be willing to deal him if necessary to add help elsewhere.

23
bcxy - Kerry Wood(30235)
by - Brad Penny(02230)

Octavio Dotel
Kyle Farnsworth
Jeff Fassero
Josias Manzanillo
Nick Neugebauer(42451)
Billy Wagner

We still like Wood's upside but I'm growing very concerned about Penny, and despite reports, believe his injury may be rather serious due to his poor 2002 skills and lack of even a single dominant start. We're sticking with Neugebauer in some leagues despite his probable inconsistency. Wagner remains solid, and while we have some faith in Dotel and Farnsworth once he's healthy, Fassero seems shot, and Manzanillo's injury cements his successful campaign for the 2001-02 Jody Reed Award.

24
z - Britt Reames
Justin Speier

I won't trust Speier as long as he remains in Colorado, although we still like Reames' upside and like having him on our bench in case Herges falters.

34
acyz - Kevin Brown(05044)
bcyz - Greg Maddux(03025)

Jose Acevedo(510)
Chad Fox
Dave Veres

Four pitchers suffering through injury-plagued seasons and our favorite Red all remain risky plays this season. Move Veres if, like us, you're concerned about his workload, but we're fairly comfortable with at least holding onto the others.

1
abxy - Matt Morris(34335)
axyz - Tom Glavine(45352)
axyz - A.J. Burnett(54433)
axy - Kevin Jarvis(43444)
axy - Brandon Duckworth(50335)
axz - Jeff D'Amico(54425)
cyz - Kevin Millwood(00353)
ax - Kazuhisa Ishii(44254)
ax - Vicente Padilla(55443)
ax - Carlos Hernandez(12555)
xz - Matt Clement(55340)
x - Josh Fogg(53334)

Omar Daal(55)
Brian Boehringer
Joe Borowski
Kane Davis
Eric Gagne
Danny Graves
Darren Holmes
Kent Mercker
Eddie Oropesa
Scott Stewart
Tim Worrell

Kent Mercker is the only pitcher in this category who I'd almost never want to add, although Eddie Oropesa doesn't offer much upside. The twelve starters above are all more risky than most of the previous starters although I'd be happy to add any of them. Gagne and Graves both seem solid as closers, and all of the other middle relievers would be decent additions to your team in most standard NL-only leagues.

2
abcxyz - Curt Schilling(45445)
abcxyz - Darryl Kile(44422)
abxy - Tony Armas, Jr.(34554)
bxyz - Randy Wolf(43204)
bxy - Russ Ortiz(43333)
by - Jason Schmidt(200)

Nelson Cruz
Jose Jimenez
Steve Kline
Kerry Ligtenberg
Jose Nunez
Vladimir Nunez
John Smoltz

The only pitchers here that I can unilaterally recommend are Schilling, Kile, Armas, and Smoltz, although Nunez also seems to be pitching fine at the moment. I harbor concerns about Wolf and both Giants' starters, and none of the other five relievers appear especially trustworthy. Armas still should be underrated in most leagues; consider dealing for him if you need a starter.

3
bxyz - Jon Lieber(53442)
by - Ruben Quevedo(24120)

Tim Redding(0054)
Ryan Jensen(03053)
Jason Bere(00332)
Jose Cabrera
Giovanni Carrara
Joey Eischen
Mike Matthews
Paul Quantrill
Steve Reed

No one here seems like a great addition, although there's not much wrong with Lieber(low K/9), Redding(Astros' Field), Jensen(Ainsworth competition), or Steve Reed(RH specialist). Cabrera, Carrara, and Quantrill are decent pickups if you need roster filler but I don't believe they offer much upside.

4
b - Bud Smith(3100)
y - Ben Sheets(00253)

Kris Benson
Doug Brocail
Vic Darensbourg
John Franco
Aaron Fultz
Trevor Hoffman
Scott Strickland
Greg Swindell
Gabe White

Hoffman's fine and Strickland remains an excellent middle reliever, but aside from the well-known upside of Smith and Sheets, and the impending return of Benson, I see no reason to add anyone else here. Gabe White is your best option from the remaining pitchers if you need roster filler.

a
bcxy - Hideo Nomo(44442)
xcyz - Ryan Dempster(24334)
bxy - John Thomson(40552)
cxz - Glendon Rusch(45550)
xyz - Elmer Dessens(44344)
xy - Pedro Astacio(52444)
x - Josh Beckett(44453)
x - Odalis Perez(44443)
x - Brett Tomko(45424)
x - Andy Ashby(24524)
x - Damian Moss(44342)
x - Dave Williams(54250)
x - Joey Hamilton(44350)
Dave Mlicki(54505)

The inclusion of the H/9 limit kicks Glendon Rusch from sharing the top spot with Randy in the pre-season list all the way down to the DOM/DIS level without any LIMA qualification; he's still a pitcher with nice upside who we're pleased to own. We have concerns about Ashby and Hamilton, although everyone else here would be at least an intriguing pickup at the moment, and even Thomson and Mlicki appear able to overcome the disadvantages of their home ballparks.

b
cyz - Wade Miller(041)
by - Steve Trachsel(30031)
Terry Adams(21350)

All three of these pitchers are high risks at the moment, although Adams seems the best bet if he can avoid further injury. Miller should be okay whenever he returns, although start Trachsel at your own risk - we don't often trust pitchers who don't post any dominant starts.

c
xy - Robert Person(43433)
yz - Woody Williams(0)
Rick Ankiel

Williams should be fine when he returns, although the other two could miss significant time this season; consider all of them extreme risks until proven otherwise.

x
yz - Denny Neagle(22544)
yz - Shane Reynolds(32553)
yz - Livan Hernandez(23433)
y - Shawn Chacon(32344)
y - Nelson Figueroa(23333)
z - Rick Helling(32405)
z - Carl Pavano(24223)
Tomo Ohka(50552)
Kirk Rueter(43224)
Bobby J. Jones(23530)

Despite their presence on the list of pitchers normally avoiding disasters, none of these pitchers does an exceptionally good job of balancing a few great starts with their awful ones, and 2 and 3 PQS starts can still really hurt your ERA and WHIP. From this group, we have the most faith in Hernandez and Ohka, although we like the upside of Reynolds and Helling.

u
Brian Tollberg(10443)
Jason Marquis(531)
Sean Lowe(0)
Darren Dreifort

Here we see two pitchers who've spent at least most of the year on the DL and two pitchers that many of you likely wish had spend the entire year on the DL. We're still taking chances with Tollberg in a couple leagues, and Marquis still has solid upside. Avoid Lowe since he could continue to kill your qualitative numbers.

z
Shawn Estes(11532)
Albie Lopez(023)
Mike Hampton(23032)
Jamey Wright(0)
Bruce Chen(003)
Julian Tavarez(012)
Andy Benes(000)
Tony McKnight

We still own Lopez and Chen on a couple teams since both have shown good potential in the past, although we can't recommend anyone else here. Estes carries a lot of risk, so look to deal him while he still has decent value thanks to his hot start.

NL pitchers I continue to recommend despite their failure to appear here include Kurt Ainsworth, Antonio Alfonseca, Armando Benitez, Ricky Bottalico, Jason Simontacchi, and Mike Willams. Please recognize that these are fairly risky or unproven players, but most aren't missing much to at least pick up a 1 rating fairly soon.

Other frequently owned pitchers who've shown little overt skill in the last three years include Jimmy Anderson, Miguel Batista, Dave Coggin, Mike DeJean, Matt Herges, Graeme Lloyd, Braden Looper, Chris Reitsma, Garrett Stephenson, Todd Stottlemyre, Ron Villone, and Kip Wells. DeJean, Herges, Looper, Retisma, and Wells all show some potential, but I don't currently recommend adding anyone else from this list.

We may continue to adjust the format of these articles over the next few weeks to make them more accessible. Hopefully you enjoyed the first two in-season LPR articles and we hope you find this list as useful as we do.

Today's Fantasy Rx: Two pitchers deserve your immediate attention: Kris Benson and A.J. Burnett.

When Benson debuted in 1999, he posted a 11-14 record and 4.07 ERA on 139:83 K:BB in 196.2 IP with 184 H, 16 HR, and 1.64 G-F. He increased his strikeout rate in 2000 to allow him to fulfill LIMA requirements with a 10-12 record and 3.85 ERA on 184:86 K:BB in 217.2 IP with 206 H, 24 HR, and a 1.76 G-F. In 5 rehab start(1 at AA Altoona and 4 at AAA Nashville), Benson posted a great 32:8 K:BB in 24.2 IP with 11 H, 2 HR< and only 4 ER. While he still needs to build stamina, you should certainly look to acquire him if he's available in almost any league.

You should probably look to move the 25-year-old Burnett as he's averaging over 110 pitches and almost 30 batters faced per start. With four outings over 120 pitches, though none over 125, Torborg is placing his most consistent current starter in severe jeopardy of injury problems if his workload isn't reduced immediately. Deal Burnett unless you think Torborg has suddenly started believing in the Florida bullpen.