Today's Fantasy Rx

Arizona: Byung-Hyun Kim, RH Closer
5 Saves on 20:1 K:BB in 10.2 IP over 10 G with 10 H, 0 HR, and 10-6 G-F; 0.84 ERA.

Kim remains one of the top relievers in baseball, and you certainly should have no remaining doubts about him despite his World Series' performance. A 20:1 K:BB is an abnormally great performance that we shouldn't expect to continue, especially when compared against his 2.5 career K:BB. I'm also quite pleased with career-best 16.9 K/9 and 1.67 G-F ratios even before we look at his respective 12.0 and 1.10 career averages; his increased groundball rate also helps explain not allowing any homers this year against a .9 HR/9 career mark. The only statistical concern I have is a rising hit rate, now up to 8.4 H/9 and well above his 6.1 career rate. Considering the Diamondbacks prefer Mantei as their closer, a smart decision in light of Kim's potential multiple-inning ability, don't expect much over thirty saves this year. You certainly should at least wait to see if his great performance will continue, but you can also acquire him if you need reliable help in all five categories.

Atlanta: Darren Holmes, RH Reliever
1-0 on 14:0 K:BB in 15 IP over 14 G with 9 H, 0 HR, and 17-14 G-F; 1.20 ERA.

While Tom Glavine will challenge Randy for NL Pitcher of the Month after a simply fantastic performance, re-establishing himself as one of the best starters in baseball after a fairly weak 2001, Holmes' comeback from a spinal fusion is a much greater surprise. He used to perform very adequately as both a middle reliever and occasional closer prior to a disastrous 2000 season, and although he's now 36, he gives Atlanta another quality right-hander in the pen. A perfect 14:0 K:BB demonstrates that his command is even better than his 2.2 career average, and an 8.4 K/9 also shows that his dominance has returned at a greater level than his 7.6 norm. His plummeting H/9(5.4 '02; 9.5 career) keeps his WHIP at a fantastic .60. I'm somewhat concerned about his low G-F(1.21 '02; 1.42 career), and I suspect he's bound to give up a couple homers within the next month. While you shouldn't expect his ERA to stay much below 3.00, he's a decent target to acquire if you need inexpensive relief help.

Chicago Cubs: Juan Cruz, RH Starter
0-5 on 23:18 K:BB in 27 IP over 5 GS with 23 H, 2 HR, and 30-31 G-F; 2.33 ERA.

Joe Borowski has established himself as a fairly capable middle reliever, but the control problems of Kerry Wood and Cruz are extremely troublesome. Lieber and Clement are entrenched in the rotation, and they need to let Bere keep starting if they want to maintain his trade value, so that doesn't leave many spots in question once Mark Prior debuts, likely in late May or early June. Hopefully, for Cubs' fans, they'll be far enough out of the race that they can just move Bere at that point, although Cruz remains at risk considering his youth and inconsistency.

His 0-5 record against this ERA is rather surprising, but aside from perhaps the majors worst run support at 1.0 R/G from the offense, Cruz has also contributed to 10 unearned runs. I don't believe he should be blamed for his teammates' failures except that this walk rate is truly poor. A 05034 PQS log accurately captures his inconsistency, and additional warning signs exist in his skills. He's maintained a solid strikeout rate(7.7 '02; 7.9 '01) and H/9(7.7 '02; 8.1 '01) against a thoroughly deteriorated K:BB of 1.3, compared to 2.3 last season. While his HR/9(.7 '02; .8 '01) remains solid, a quickly dropping G-F, down to .97 from 1.51 last year, indicates that his HR/9 are likely to being rising soon. Cruz has been very lucky to keep his ERA this low, and as I see a lot of potential trouble spots in a high walk rate coupled with a likely ascending homer rate, so you may want to talk up his ERA and deal Cruz now before he heads over 3.00 to stay. He could still be a great pitcher in a few years; he just needs to keep the ball down without allowing his sharp breaking ball to tail out of the zone.

Cincinnati: Elmer Dessens, RH Starter
1-3 on 17:12 K:BB in 30 IP over 5 GS with 26 H, 2 HR, and 40-34 G-F; 1.80 ERA.

Great performances by Danny Graves, Gabe White, and Scott Sullivan have anchored perhaps the best bullpen in the National League, but while all of their ERAs are likely to rise about a point by the end of the year, the Reds' success should be mostly attributed to shocking starting performances. Jose Rijo, despite a couple of respectable starts, remains a relative unknown considering his erratic career path. Both Joey Hamilton and Chris Reitsma have kept low ERAs despite poor command, and while any of these starters would be a good choice to profile here, at least Hamilton and Reitsma were considered good prospects with potentially great ERAs. Dessens possesses neither the track record nor previously-held expectations of greatness, so his sub-2.00 ERA comes as a greater shock to many.

A 04443 PQS log actually depicts a greater level of consistency than you'd normally expect from this stat line. Breaking down his PQS further allows us to understand why he's been so successful; in his last four starts, he's earned the points for both 6+ IP and 1- HR every outing. He's 3/4 for both 2+ K:BB and 1- H/IP, but he's only once managed the K > or = IP-2, so he's rarely dominant despite the relative uniformity of the PQS scores.

Dessens has also benefited from career-best marks in H/9(7.8 '02; 10.2 career), HR/9(.6 '02; 1.0 career), and G-F(1.18 '02; 1.56 career), so we shouldn't automatically expect immediately rising rates anywhere here. The problem remains his K:BB(1.4 '02; 2.1 career) and K/9(5.1 '02; 5.3 career), although there's simply too much solid supporting evidence to recommend a drop at this time. If you already own him, wait to see if he can continue his effectiveness for another few starts without an acceptable K:BB or K/9, and don't deal him now unless you're offered a clearly superior package in return.

Colorado: Jason Jennings, RH Starter
2-2 on 16:7 K:BB in 27 IP over 5 GS with 29 H, 5 HR, and 47-24 G-F; 3.67 ERA.

The three best starting pitcher ERAs in Colorado history are Marvin Freeman's 2.80 ERA in 18 GS back in 1994, Armando Reynoso's 4.00 ERA in 30 GS back in 1993, and John Thomson's 4.04 in 14 GS last season. A 40233 PQS log shows that Jennings hasn't dominated this year, and based on the team history, he's extremely unlikely to maintain an ERA below 4.00. He's made welcome improvement in G-F(1.96 '02; 1.59 '01), although he's allowing a higher HR/9(1.7 '02; .5 '01). While both those rates might average out, he's also holding a respectable hit rate(9.7 '02; 9.6 '01), so there's no reason to expect an increase in his ERA solely through his hits. A more promising sign is his improved K:BB(2.3 '02; 1.4 '01) even if his K/9 has dropped from 5.9 to 5.3. While Jennings is still unlikely to earn positive roto value for the year, he could be an effective spot starter in deep leagues, and if you own him already and can reserve him at home, wait to see if his strikeout rate improves before dumping him.

Florida: A.J. Burnett, RH Starter
4-2 on 39:18 K:BB in 42.2 IP over 6 GS with 29 H, 3 HR, and 43-39 G-F; 2.11 ERA.

A 535443 PQS log ranks with some of the best pitchers in the game, but despite displaying great improvement from past seasons, Burnett won't be able to maintain this ERA. Career-best marks in K:BB(2.2 '02; 1.5 career), K/9(8.2 '02; 6.8 career), and H/9(6.1 '02; 7.7 career) all seem to be demonstrating potential long-term development instead of merely short-term improvement. As I discussed last week in the NL LPR article, his shrinking G-F(.88 '02; 1.17 career) suggests that we should not to expect his great HR/9(.6 '02; .9 career) to continue much longer. I think he can maintain a level of performance that will leave him with double-digit value for the year, so you should continue to wait if you already own him, but he's probably too expensive to pick up right now.

Houston: Dave Mlicki, RH Starter
3-2 on 17:6 K:BB in 32.2 IP over 5 GS with 26 H, 3 HR, and 46-42 G-F; 2.20 ERA.

These numbers are quite impressive considering two of these starts were at home against St. Louis and San Francisco, and another was in Colorado. His G-F(1.10 '02; 1.21 career) is fairly close to his career average, but given his history, I can't see him maintaining either his current H/9(7.2 '02; 9.6 career) or HR/9(.8 '02; 1.2 career). While his K:BB(2.8 '02; 1.8 career) shows promise, his K/9(4.7 '02; 6.1 career) is as weak as ever, and he's never exhibited great control in the past. He seems a fairly safe risk at the moment with an improving 12545 PQS log, but while you can wait for now don't be afraid to release him if his K:BB or PQS scores deteriorate.

Los Angeles: Omar Daal, LH Swingman
3-0 on 20:5 K:BB in 24.2 IP over 8 G with 12 H, 1 HR, and 32-24 G-F; 1.10 ERA.

Odalis Perez continues to excel with a solid 4 PQS almost every time, but Daal has never demonstrated this much control prior to this season. His two starts have both been 5s, and all of his skills are better than his career averages, a logical product of his bullpen work since Daal normally has stamina problems. You can certainly expect his ERA to triple before the end of the year, and you also shouldn't count on more than another half dozen starts unless the Dodgers suffer a major injury to a starter. Daal's a decent candidate to acquire as long as you don't have to trade too much in return.

Milwaukee: Luis Vizcaino, RH Reliever
2-1 on 16:5 K:BB in 17.1 IP over 16 G with 11 H, 1 HR, and 19-18 G-F; 2.08 ERA.

He holds the lowest ERA of a surprisingly solid Brewers' staff, and only slightly weak aspect of his skills is a 1.06 G-F ratio. Vizcaino continues to display great potential as a reliever and possible closer. He owns the best K:BB(3.2), K/9(8.3), H/9(5.7), and HR/9(.5) of any Milwaukee pitcher, and none of these appear severely divergent from his recent minor league performance. DeJean's only advantages over Vizcaino as a closer are the current patronage of Manager Jerry Royster and a 2.50 G-F ratio that will likely return close to his 1.49 career mark over the next few weeks. Vizcaino's stats are fairly reasonable for a top reliever, and while keeping him in middle relief allows the Brewers to use their best pitcher in the most crucial situations, he also could wind up closing relatively soon. Move to acquire him if you need relief help.

Montreal: T.J. Tucker, RH Reliever
1-0 on 6:3 K:BB in 14.2 IP over 14 G with 12 H, 0 HR, and 25-16 G-F; 1.84 ERA.

Everyone in the Montreal pen continues to display either solid stats or skills, but while Scott Stewart pitched quite well last year, Tucker's performance upon his move to the pen appears incongruous with his statistical history. His 2 K:BB is merely adequate, and although his low hit, homer, and G-F ratios also depict an emerging quality reliever, Tucker lacks the dominance necessary for any late inning work. A 3.7 K/9 is even worse than his last two years of 5.4 and 4.0 MLE K/9, and I expect starters to improve their strikeout rate in their early relief appearances. If you currently use him for ERA help, talk to the Herges owner about a possible deal, since you'll want to move Tucker before his ERA heads north.

New York Mets: Grant Roberts, RH Reliever
0-0 on 11:8 K:BB in 15 IP over 10 G with 14 H, 0 HR, and 22-15 G-F; 0.60 ERA.

Several Mets won't be able to maintain their extremely low ERAs but Roberts owns the weakest skills of anyone on the team currently under a 3.00. Roberts excelled in the bullpen last year with a 29:8 K:BB in 26 IP with only 24 H and 2 HR allowed for a 3.81 ERA. Now his K/9 has collapsed back to his levels as a starter, and no one with a 1.4 K:BB should be able to hold even a sub-3.00 ERA for long. Deal Roberts now to a team needing ERA help, since while he could return to his skill levels from last season, I think there's too much deterioration of his command for him to rebound without some minor league time. He's likely to get lit very badly in the next few weeks.

Philadelphia: Cliff Politte, RH Reliever
2-0 on 9:7 K:BB in 10.2 IP over 8 G with 14 H, 0 HR, and 11-10 G-F; 2.53 ERA.

Over the last three years, Politte has compiled a 1-2 record and 5.60 ERA on 22:13 K:BB in 17.2 IP with 31 H and 6 HR before the All-Star break, while he's posted a far more respectable 6-4 record and 3.34 ERA on 66:37 K:BB in 75.1 IP with 67 H and 6 HR after the break. He's actually managed a better K:BB as a starter at 2.0 than his 1.6 in relief, so nothing in Politte's stat line strikes me as particularly surprising. I still believe he has solid potential in almost any role, but he's too inconsistent to use on a regular basis at the moment. We're deploying him in one league when he's set for a full week of home games, although you also should consider approaching Mesa's owner with a minor deal.

Pittsburgh: Joe Beimel, LH Reliever
0-0 on 7:5 K:BB in 9.1 IP over 11 G with 5 H, 0 HR, and 15-7 G-F; 1.93 ERA.

Every Pirate reliever other than Sean Lowe has an ERA under 2.70 but only Beimel fails to post a 2 K:BB or better. He pitched rather dreadfully in the rotation last year before excelling in the bullpen, compiling a 3-1 record and 3.27 ERA on a 32:14 K:BB in 44 IP with 40 H and 2 HR. Beimel is a prime beneficiary of the Pirates' improved defense as his G-F has improved to 2.14 from 2001's 1.67, so he provides more groundballs for Reese and Wilson up the middle. Without an impressive strikeout rate, I see no other reason for his very low hit rate, so his ERA could remain low as long as his teammates support him. However I'd still prefer to see better control from him, so you can probably wait and hope his hot streak continues although you should likely keep watch for a potential replacement with more upside

San Diego: Matt DeWitt, RH Reliever
0-1 on 5:3 K:BB in 7.1 IP over 5 G with 6 H, 1 HR, and 7-9 G-F; 1.23 ERA.

Five Padres' relievers boast ERAs of 2.08 or less, and with Hoffman, Fikac, Reed, and Embree all possessing relatively good track records and skill histories that support their performance in their specific roles, you shouldn't group DeWitt with the others. Despite relatively decent MLEs from last season, his major league history over the last two years indicates a pitcher that needs more minor league time; he's posted a 19:19 K:BB in 32.2 IP with 42 H, not the numbers you want to see from a middle reliever on a team with questionable starters. Even with these small sample sizes, the most worrisome trend is a dropping G-F ratio that fell from 1.22 in 2000 to 1.05 last year before continuing to .78 this year. He might not hurt San Diego as the last man on their staff, but deal him since there's no reason for him to be on almost any roto team with a plethora of superior options likely available in even the deepest of leagues.

San Francisco: Kirk Rueter, LH Starter
3-1 on 12:9 K:BB in 33.1 IP over 5 GS with 21 H, 3 HR, and 38-46 G-F; 1.89 ERA.

Owning the best ERA of a group of very good San Francisco starters, Rueter remains very weak from a skills' perspective and could easily see a sharp rise in his qualitative numbers at any time. With a career-worst .83 G-F and 3.24 K/9, and an unreasonably low 5.7 H/9, he seems poised for disaster despite an apparently decent 43432 PQS log. Congratulations to those of you that have been lucky enough to own him in April, but you need to begin immediately exploring a potential deal for a more reliable pitcher who's likely to strike out more than about one batter every three innings.

St. Louis: Dave Veres, RH Reliever
2-2 on 13:13 K:BB in 18.1 IP over 13 G with 14 H, 1 HR, and 11-11 G-F; 1.96 ERA.

I find these stats rather unbelievable from someone who remained quite capable of closing for the last few years. His 1.00 G-F is .35 below his career mark, and he's never even been below a 1.7 K:BB prior to now. Veres is normally a strong first half pitcher before deteriorating in the second half, and only the hit rate and ERA resemble his performance over the last few years. He's now an overworked 35-year old who might be hiding an injury since nothing else could really adequately explain the disappearance of a formerly excellent skills' set; deal him now before earned runs or days on the DL start accumulating.

Today's Fantasy Rx: Spider-Man opens in theaters tomorrow, and while we don't condone most of the casting choices and expect it to be quite weak compared to even the old cartoon series, we also hope it will be an enjoyable movie. If you need a break after a month of the season, it should be a worthy diversion for you this weekend.