Today's Fantasy Rx

Anaheim: Ramon Ortiz, RH Starter
2-3 on 23:11 K:BB in 35.1 IP over 5 GS with 30 H, 6 HR, and 40-42 GB-FF; 2.55 ERA.

A 23254 PQS log to date indicates that Ortiz is growing into his improved ratios. A solid jump in his K:BB(2.1 '02; 1.6 career) is fueling his improved ERA despite a small drop in K/9(5.9 '02; 6.1 career). His H/9(7.6 '02; 8.9 career) are also depressed, indicating promising WHIP development. The trouble spot here is a sudden drop in G-F ratio(.95 '02; 1.31 career) after two straight years right at his career average; this drop has directly contributed to a rise in his homer rate(1.5 '02; 1.2 career), but he allowed five of his homers in only two games in Texas and Oakland. With the Angels entering a month with a much easier schedule almost exclusively against the AL Central, he might be able to continue this development into a true breakout season. You can look to acquire him as long as you only expect gradual improvement instead of a pitcher likely to maintain a sub-3.00 ERA. Of course, his 2002 April almost exactly mirrors his start last season, in which he went 3-2 with a 25-12 K:BB in 23.2 IP with 31 H and a 3.86 ERA before a 5.46 ERA in May, but I'd still continue to wait on him even if you don't have that much faith in his current numbers. You should rarely dump a pitcher after two dominant starts.

Baltimore: Scott Erickson, RH Starter
3-2 on 14:15 K:BB in 40.1 IP over 6 GS with 37 H, 3 HR, and 83-32 G-F; 3.57 ERA.

The early great pitching from Buddy Groom, Jorge Julio, and even Rodrigo Lopez isn't completely unexpected considering their recent history, including the MLEs of Julio and Lopez. However, the impressive return of Erickson after not pitching since 2000 has shocked us, especially as his skills remain quite poor.

Despite small improvements in H/9(8.3 '02; 9.7 career), HR/9(.7 '02; .8 career),and G-F(2.59 '02; 2.46 career), continually weak K:BB(.9 '02; 1.5 career) and K/9(3.1 '02; 4.9 career) offer little hope for a year-long ERA even under 4.00. Another troubling sign is his poor PQS log of 342023, and with Baltimore playing 6 of their 9 series this month against Cleveland, Oakland, and Seattle, I don't expect his ERA to remain low for long. He might continue to fool batters, but the safe play is to deal him right now, so if you own him, make an offer to another team today.

Boston: Darren Oliver, LH Starter
3-1 on 20:5 K:BB in 28 IP over 5 G with 32 H, 2 HR, and 42-26 G-F; 2.89 ERA.

While Jess spent all of Sunday's column discussing Derek Lowe's no-hitter and great overall April, Oliver has been nearly as impressive thus far when filling in for the injured Dustin Hermanson.

Oliver's four-start PQS log isn't that impressive at 3304, and he's never displayed a great level of consistency even during his best seasons. As he usually pitches rather poorly in April, his fast start is even more impressive, especially when considering he's maintained his hit rate(10.3 '02; 10.1 career) while improving all of his other skills. His command and dominance look great given his K:BB(4 '02; 1.4 career) and K/9(6.4 '02; 5.5 career), while his increased G-F(1.62 '02; 1.31 career) has led to a drop in HR/9(.6 '02; 1.1 career). He remains a risky pitcher considering his fairly bad recent history, but if you can afford the risk, consider a FAAB bid or small trade to acquire Oliver for his growing upside.

Chicago White Sox: Gary Glover, RH Setup
0-0 on 9:9 K:BB in 12.2 IP over 12 G with 9 H, 0 HR, and 15-12 G-F; 1.42 ERA.

Glover displayed much better skills last year as a starter(2.3 K:BB; 5.8 K/9) than as a reliever(1.6 K;BB; 5.4 K/9), so we're not overly surprised by his struggles in the pen in 2002(1.0 K:BB; 6.4 K/9). The skyrocketing walks more than compensate for the jump in strikeouts, and only a much improved hit rate(6.4 '02; 8.8 '01) and some good relief support has kept his ERA this low. Pitchers are not supposed to post ratios identical to their ERAs unless both are effectively 0. He's also been fortunate in that he hasn't given up any homers after allowing 1.4 HR/9 last year, and we can partially attributed this "luck" to an improved G-F(1.25 '02; 1.15 '01). Without an exceptional minor league portfolio, I simply can't recommend someone with only a 1.0 K:BB, so deal Glover if you have him, possibly to the owner with Foulke. I'd advise you to hold onto him if I thought the Sox would let him start any time soon, but they've given no indication of any potential change despite their questionable rotation.

Cleveland: Paul Shuey, RH Relief
1-0 on 7:4 K:BB in 10.2 IP over 11 G with 5 H, 0 HR, and 14-9 G-F; 0.00 ERA.

Shuey remains one of the best and most consistent relief pitchers in the game. He's unlikely to ever see much time closing due to a perceived inability to finish games, although we put little faith in save percentage as a relevant statistic and therefore largely ignore his 12/30 record. A 1.8 K:BB is actually his worst K:BB in several years as he's established a 2.1 K:BB career average, and his K/9(5.0 '02; 10.0 career) is quite weak, especially in consideration of his 10.9 average over the last three years. His 1.56 G-F is also at the lowest level since 1997 despite staying rather close to his 1.82 norm. The great hit rate(3.9 '02; 8.0 career) is certainly promising, as is the lack of homers so far, so I see little reason to change my opinion of him at this time despite a relatively slow skills' start. Wait to see if his K/9, and therefore K:BB, improves before taking any other action.

Detroit: Steve Sparks, RH Starter
2-2 on 18:11 K:BB in 42 IP over 6 GS with 41 H, 2 HR, and 73-47 G-F; 3.00 ERA.

Sparks continues to excel as he's now decreased his ERA for three straight years, and he's historically not an appreciably fast starter. A 422313 PQS log to date doesn't impress me at all, and his K/9 has slipped from an already dreadful career 4.4 mark down to 3.9 this year. Fortunately he remains above his average in the other skill stats, including K:BB(1.6 '02; 1.2 career), H/9(8.8 '02; 9.5 career), HR/9(.4 '02; 1.0 career), and G-F(1.55 '02; 1.36 career). You should probably consider exploring a possible deal involving Sparks now before he begins heading upwards towards his 4.52 career ERA.

Kansas City: Paul Byrd, RH Starter
4-1 on 17:2 K:BB in 35.1 IP over 5 GS with 30 H, 5 HR, and 42-55 G-F; 3.06 ERA.

I've discussed Byrd once or twice in recent weeks due to his solid PQS performance, but even with a rising ERA, his PQS log remains impressive at 34444 for the year. Byrd is traditionally a very slow starter who improves as summer begins, so along with considering the rather weak team around him, his April was rather exceptional. Led by his unbelievably superb K:BB(8.5 '02; 1.7 career), his overall command allows us to ignore a weak K/9(4.2 '02; 5.4 career) and troubling drop in G-F(.76 '02; 1.03 career), which creates a potential trouble spot despite a solid HR/9(.5 '02; 1.3 career) thus far. His low H/9(7.6 '02; 9.0 career) leaves him with a .91 WHIP, making Byrd a very good target to acquire in 4x4 leagues. He won't be bad elsewhere, but he offers proportionally greater upside when strikeouts aren't included in scoring.

Minnesota: J.C. Romero, LH Reliever
2-0 on 19:6 K:BB in 15.1 IP over 16 G with 9 H, 0 HR, and 14-11 G-F; .59 ERA.

Minnesota's received an absolutely superb performance from the majority of their bullpen, with Romero, Fiore, Hawkins, Guardado, and Jackson combining to go 5-1 with 10 saves on 59:19 K:BB in 63.1 IP with 38 H, 2 HR, and a 1.14 ERA. Romero leads the corps in strikeouts and ERA, and along with Guardado, gives the Twins two of the best lefty relievers in the game. We remain very high on his upside as a potential future closer or solid starter, although we have a vested interest as we own him in our three AL leagues.

Romero's 2002 stats to date are still impressive even though he spent all but about 10 IP as a starter prior to this season. Dramatic improvements in practically every statistic have left him with impressive jumps in K:BB(3.2 '02; 1.8 career), K/9(11.2 '02; 7.0 career), H/9(5.3 '02; 9.9 career), and HR/9(0.0 '02; 1.2 career). I'm troubled by his dropping G-F as it's fallen from 1.79 in 2000 to 1.44 last year and 1.27 this year, but the sample size remains rather small and his overall dominance makes the lack of homers allowed less surprising. Consider an attempt to acquire him if his owner doesn't want a lot in return since Romero should approach double-digit value even if he just stays in middle relief, and a move to a more prominent role could improve his value substantially.

New York Yankees: Orlando Hernandez, RH Starter
3-1 on 32:10 K:BB in 36 IP over 5 GS with 25 H, 2 HR, and 34-46 G-F; 1.75 ERA.

Rivera and Stanton continue to excel, and we're also quit pleased that Ted Lilly has fulfilled our rather high expectations thus far, but the return of Ducky ranks as the biggest pleasant shock for Yankee pitching. El Duque posted a PQS log of 54553 in April, and as he's not traditionally a very fast starter, his stats are quite impressive after three years of rising ERAs. He hasn't even approached these skill levels since his rookie season, as he's racking up either career-best or nearly career-best numbers in K:BB(3.2 '02; 2.2 career), K/9(8 '02; 7.1 career), H/9(6.3 '02; 7.9 career), and HR/9(.5 '02; 1.2 career). Since his G-F(.74 '02; .77 career) remains at his average, I expect he'll begin allowing more home runs as the weather warms, which will consequently raise his ERA. Since Hernandez appears likely to both continue to pitch close to this level and receive enough run support to win his good starts, you probably can't gain much by moving him even at his likely inflated value. Wait at least another month to monitor his consistency before you consider any move since you don't want to deal someone who might finish with one of the top five roto values of any AL starter.

Oakland: Billy Koch, RH Closer
5 S on 13:6 K:BB in 11.2 IP over 11 G with 5 H, 0 HR, and 13-6 G-F; 1.54 ERA.

Tim Hudson has started off at great levels even for one of the top aces, but Koch's reemergence as a top closer is more impressive considering his 5.66 second half ERA last season. He's even pitching better than his career averages in K:BB(2.2 '02; 2.1 career), K/9(10.0 '02; 7.5 career), and H/9(3.9 '02; 8.3 career). I'm also quite pleased by his career-best G-F(2.17 '02; 1.62 career), which might explain the lack of homers allowed this year. Koch appears to have steadied himself at the end of a fairly deep A's bullpen, and based on his stats this year, we can consider him a top closer again; feel free to acquire him if you need saves.

Seattle: Shigetoshi Hasegawa, RH Reliever
3-0 on 8:5 K:BB in 14.2 IP over 9 G with 7 H, 0 HR, and 21-13 G-F; 0.00 ERA.

Sasaki also hasn't allowed any earned runs but we expect dominance from him at the end of games; Hasegawa's great start is proportionally more impressive. Like Koch, Hasegawa is also setting a new career-high mark in G-F at 1.62, substantially above his 1.07 average and over .33 better than his second-best season; I'm not surprised that he hasn't allowed a homer yet. Unfortunately, his command and dominance have returned to his weak normal level after solid improvement last season. His fantastic H/9(4.3 '02; 8.7 career) keeps his ratio low, but he can't sustain either his WHIP or ERA with these K:BB(1.6 '02; 1.8 career) and K/9(4.9 '02; 6.1 career) marks. Deal Hasegawa now while he's still perfect on the year as I don't expect his value will ever reach a higher level.

Tampa Bay: Paul Wilson, RH Starter
1-2 on 15:9 K:BB in 28 IP over 4 GS with 29 H, 4 HR, and 46-30 G-F; 2.89 ERA.

Steve Kent's jump from A+ San Bernardino to the majors may be the most impressive performance among Rays' pitchers. However, Wilson, who posted a 7.59 ERA prior to the All-Star break last season, appears to be fulfilling some of the expectations remaining from when the Mets selected him with the first overall pick of the 1994 draft.

A 3322 PQS log shows that he's just getting by with his stuff this season, an assessment supported by generally weak skills. Most glaringly, his K:BB(1.7 '02; 2.3 career) and K/9(4.8 '02; 6.8 career) have dropped from fairly solid to unacceptable levels. He's at least maintaining a slightly above average WHIP with his decent H/9(9.3 '02; 9.1 career). Also expect his HR/9(1.3 '02; 1.0 career) to return to his average thanks to his career-best G-F(1.53 '02; 1.21 career). I won't recommend someone with weak command, but Wilson still has great upside and could increase his strikeout rate rather quickly, so wait at least another month to see if he returns to his career norms.

Texas: Kenny Rogers, LH Starter
3-0 on 22:12 K:BB in 40 IP over 6 GS with 30 H, 2 HR, and 66-28 G-F; 2.20 ERA.

A 352453 PQS log exclusively against Oakland, Seattle, and Toronto demonstrates not only that Rogers can normally pitch adequately against good teams but he can dominate at times against anyone.

Now Rogers has posted ERAs in the low 3.00s before as a starter, so while his ERA will logically rise at least a point, he's established a rather respectable history. The one statistic without precedence for Rogers is his career-best 2.36 G-F, almost a full point above his 1.47 career average and a full .50 above his previous high mark. However his overall skill set remains rather weak, including a K:BB(1.8 '02; 1.7 career) and K/9(5.0 '02; 5.8 career); his great H/9(6.8 '02; 9.1 career) is bound to return closer to normal although he might maintain the low HR/9(.5 '02; .9 career) due to the great G-F ratio. I still think he's a fairly safe risk, and he could especially help in wins, although you should only acquire him in leagues where you can also dump him easily if he runs into trouble.

Toronto: Corey Thurman, RH Reliever
0-0 on 11:11 K:BB in 17 IP in 12 G with 16 H, 1 HR, and 16-31 G-F; 3.18 ERA.

Thurman, one of only six Rule 5 picks to break camp with a team, perhaps has the most promise of anyone from last year's draft. His 2001 MLEs looked like 13-5 on 126:62 K:BB in 160 IP with 138 H, 18 HR, and a 4.05 ERA. As his 2002 stat line looks nothing like last year's, we're left to assume that his ERA will start rising very soon, especially considering his dreadful 1.00 K:BB and .52 G-F ratio. If you own Thurman in any league, talk up his ERA and deal him now since his skills are much too poor for him to maintain a positive roto value.

Today's Fantasy Rx: In leagues with fairly deep reserve rosters, consider picking up a high-risk pitcher like Oliver or Rogers and then leaving him on your bench until you feel comfortable starting him. Especially with younger and mostly unproven pitchers, you can occasionally find a great sleeper that gives you more roster flexibility.