Today's Fantasy Rx

Note: Whenever I list three averages for hitters in a row, the order is as follows: BA/OBP/SLG.

Arizona: Junior Spivey, 2B
31/92 for .337/.400/.543 with 2 HR, 15 RBI, 20 R, 4/5 SB%, 7:9 BB:K, and 40-29 G-F.

Spivey amazed many people with a fairly impressive start upon his major league debut last year as he posted a .828 OPS in 48 AB prior to the All-Star break. He crashed back to earth as his OPS fell to .757 in the second half, a much closer total to his MLE OPS of the previous two years of .775 and .741. He's demonstrated above average speed in the minors, so the steals thus far aren't a great surprise, but he's also improved most of his batting skills from last year. Spivey posted barely acceptable skill ratios even during his hot June start last season. Now he's improved his BB:K(.78 '02; .49 '01), contact rate(.90 '02; .72 '01), and G-F(1.38 '02; 1.56 '01) even as he's lost ground in walk rate(.08 '02; .12 '01) and #P/PA(3.89 '02; 3.52 '01). While the contact rate improvement impresses me, I see little other reason to expect his great start to continue, especially considering his fatigue later last season. Deal Spivey now if you can find anyone willing to offer you someone like Todd Walker in return.

Atlanta: Andruw Jones, OF
27/103 for .262/.364/.524 with 8 HR, 16 RBI, 19 R, 3/3 SB%, 15:29 BB:K, and 35-27 G-F.

While Chipper and Giles are both performing as expected, and B.J. Surhoff would have been a great candidate until his season-ending injury, Jones' power development is the most surprising mark of the Braves' offensive statistics. Andruw has averaged about four homers each year during the last five Aprils, but he also managed seven homers last year in both April and May while posting a great 12:12 BB:K in April before falling to 6:23 during May. He's not approached that level of plate discipline in the past year despite improvements in his walk rate(.15 '02; .10 career) and #P/PA(3.85 '02; 3.67 '01). I'm also very concerned about his continually weak BB:K(.52 '02; .48 career), and he's even slipped in contact rate(.72 '02; .79 career) and, most troubling for any continued power development, G-F ratio(1.30 '02; 1.18 career). I expect Andruw to again reach for 40 homers this year even if his OPS doesn't really return to a .900+ level, but if you expected this year to be his breakout year, you should probably deal him now before his value falls over the next two months.

Chicago Cubs: Corey Patterson, OF
27/86 for .314/.385/.465 with 1 HR, 8 RBI, 9 R, 7/7 SB%, 10:14 BB:K, and 32-25 G-F.

We were very confident in Patterson continuing his development until Baylor recently "promoted" him to leadoff. Patterson is currently an ideal #2 hitter due to his power/speed upside and greatly improved plate discipline. Regardless of his lineup slot, he's made great strides in almost every category, improving his BB:K(.71 '02; .19 career), walk rate(.12 '02; .05 career), and contact rate(.84 '02; .73 career) while maintaining his solid #P/PA(3.74 '02; 3.64 career). We're also pleased that he's returned to hitting groundballs after a drop in his G-F last season to .91; a 1.28 is a much better level for a very fast youngster likely to see many infield hits. I believe he'll struggle at times this year but he should also remain a very solid roto player throughout the season, and we may have undervalued him in the mid-teens; he's a good target to acquire if you need speed.

Cincinnati: Juan Encarnacion, OF
27/96 for .281/.320/.510 with 6 HR, 18 RBI, 9 R, 3/5 SB%, 6:20 BB:K, and 29-31.

As we've previously mentioned at last fall's AFL Symposium, Baseball Weekly's Mat Olkin presented some research he'd conducted showing a relationship between G-F ratio and hitter's home run development. We began to focus on G-F as a primary indicator of power development after we looked into the trends suggested by Olkin, and we used G-F ratio as one of main tools in predicting HR totals this year.

Olkin also distributed handouts elaborating on "A potential sign of impending power development: A large, sudden drop in G/F ratio." He listed the past drops of Carl Everett, Richard Hidalgo, Mike Bordick, Edgardo Alfonzo, and Luis Gonzalez, prior to rather rapid power development from all five players.

The five players listed that had 2001 drops were Mike Cameron, David Bell, Ron Belliard, Raul Casanova, and Juan Encarnacion, whose G-F fell from 1.67 in 2000 to 1.11 last year despite a net drop of two homers. Encarnacion's G-F has fallen even further this year to .94, and combined with the maintenance of his contact rate(.79 '02; .80 career), we definitely believe this power development is supported by his skills, leaving him with a reasonable chance at a 30 homer season.

He's also improved his plate discipline from awful to merely very bad, as evidenced by his BB:K(.3 '02; .16 career), walk rate(.06 '02; .05 career), and #P/PA(3.75 '02; 3.57 career) The Reds need to deal Encarnacion after Griffey returns to maximize their possible return in trade, so while he might maintain this power output for the next few months, deal him before Griffey returns if you lose players dealt to the other league.

Colorado: Juan Uribe, SS
36/98 for .367/.417/.510 with 1 HR, 10 RBI, 20 R, 2/3 SB%, 8:19 BB:K, and 34-26 G-F.

We expected a high average and decent quantitative numbers for around a $20 value, but this BA is significantly above his previously displayed skill. Surprisingly, he's already achieved last year's walk total in just over a third as many AB, so his walk rate(.08 '02; .03 '01) has necessarily shot up, also improving his BB:K(.42 '02; .15 '01) and #P/PA(3.57 '02; 3.42 '01) while maintaining his contact rate('81 '02; .80 '01). Uribe showed good speed in the minors, so his higher G-F ratio(1.31 '02; 1.00 '01) isn't overly troubling. He's playing at a level normally far above someone who only saw 13 AA AB and 281 in AAA, so while we expect his BA to fall down close to .300, you should certainly wait on any move as he'll still provide great production from shortstop.

Florida: Mike Lowell, 3B
36/99 for .364/.417/.626 with 4 HR, 16 RBI, 13 R, 0/1 SB%, 9:15 BB:K, and 17-44 G-F.

I expected to write something like "maintaining a nearly league-leading BA is significantly beyond the ability of someone who's never batted better than .283 in the majors", but Lowell posted a .344 AA BA back in 1997, along with a 48:30 BB:K. His BB:K(.81 '02 ;.55 career) is at the highest level of his career while he's holding a barely acceptable walk rate(.09 '02; .09 'career) while improving his #P/PA(3.62 '02; 3.83 career). Even his contact rate(.85 '02; .84 career) is only slightly up, so we can attribute his power development to a fantastic .39 G-F ratio, well under his .65 career mark. He traditionally starts very fast in April with a .901 OPS and 24 RBI last year and a .910 career OPS in April, so since none of his skills have shown great improvement I see no reason to alter his projection from .275/67/28/107/5. Deal him only in exchange for another top 3B or run producer, since while his value will fall, he's still one of the top third basemen in the majors and the second best in the NL after Scott Rolen.

Houston: Daryle Ward, OF
33/90 for .367/.389/.556 with 2 HR, 11 RBI, 7 R, 0/1 SB%, 4:15 BB:K, and 24-33 G-F.

Aside from his 11 doubles, tied for second in the league with Spivey and Jimmy Rollins behind Lowell's 15, and his incredible BA, Ward brings very little to either the Astros or your team at the moment. With his BB:K(.27 '02; .31 career) and walk rate(.04 '02; .07 career) both below his career averages, even decent improvement in contact rate(.83 '02; .78 career) and #P/PA(3.74 '02; 3.67 career) don't approach support of his current BA. A .022 difference between BA and OBP is fairly dreadful, and even the expected power development from his career-best G-F ratio(.73 '02; .89 career) won't help him maintain his roto value. You could sell high if someone offers the right deal, but you should probably wait for Ward's power numbers to increase before seriously considering a trade.

Los Angeles: Eric Karros, 1B
26/78 for .333/.381/.474 with 2 HR, 11 RBI, 9 R, 2/2 SB%, 6:8 BB:K, and 26-29 G-F.

Karros has fairly quietly contributed a great BA and moderately acceptable quantitative statistics thus far, and he's certainly performed above our expectations. A .75 BB:K is the best mark of any of his eleven seasons and greatly superior to his .47 BB:K career average. Unfortunately, his walk rate(.08 '02; .09 '01) and #P/PA(3.56 '02; 3.78 '01) are both down while he's posting his second worst G-F(.90 '02; .93 career) in six seasons. His one great improvement occurs in his contact rate at .90, over .08 above his norm. Despite Karros' historically slow starts, I'm more focused on the weak overall plate discipline and power numbers than a likely temporary BA improvement, you should think about a deal now if anyone else believes he can maintain an average above .304 for the first time in his career.

Milwaukee: Jose Hernandez, SS
26/81 for .321/.391/.605 with 5 HR, 17 RBI, 12 R, 0/1 SB%, 10:27 BB:K, and 27-18 G-F.

Some columnists theorized that Hernandez's early struggles led to Lopes' firing as Hernandez struck out 13 times in his first 29 AB, including Hernandez striking out to end the game on two consecutive days. His production following his 4K game on April 10th in St. Louis has been extremely impressive, ranking Hernandez with the top roto shortstops in baseball. He's not a traditionally fast starter although his April performance in 2001 included a SLG .126 higher than any other month of last season, although both his BA and OBP are far superior to his respective numbers last April. However, other than a mildly improved BB:K(.37 '02; .27 career) and walk rate(.12 '02; .08 career), his #P/PA(4.12 '02; 3.88 career), contact rate(.67 '02; .71 career) and G-F(1.50 '02; 1.67 career) haven't shown much improvement over his recent history. Solid power production from shortstop nearly always benefits any team, but consider a deal unless you're prepared to weather at least one or two months of sub-.225 BA.

Montreal: Michael Barrett, C
24/65 for .369/.440/.677 with 4 HR, 17 RBI, 9 R, 0/1 SB%, 9:9 BB:K, and 26-19 G-F.

Barrett's skills completely support almost all of this sudden resurgence as a top catcher, led by an incredible improvement in plate discipline that appears to have benefited nearly every Expos' hitter. His BB:K(1.00 '02; .64 career) and walk rate(.14 '02; .07 career) are both career-bests, and he's made solid progress in #P/PA(3.59 '02; 3.34 career) and G-F(1.37 '02; 1.59 career), especially after a dreadful 2.04 G-F last year. Although his contact rate(.86 '02; .89 career) is at the lowest level of his career, I see no glaring warning sign pointing to any imminent downfall. He won't continue to post a .369 BA, but something in the .300 to .320 range appears quite reasonable, so if his current owner doesn't recognize the skill improvement, acquire Barrett now before he's untouchable.

New York Mets: Edgardo Alfonzo, 3B
29/90 for .322/.419/.367 with 0 HR, 6 RBI, 12 R, 1/1 SB%, 14:13 BB:K, and 24-34 G-F.

The Mets lack any real overachiever on offense as Ordonez's BA will always be quite streaky, and neither Timo Perez or Vance Wilson are even half-time players thus far. Since Alfonzo's BA is his only roto asset this year, we'll see if his power appears likely to return.

We expected Alfonzo to have some power problems due to his back problems from last year, but the sub-.330 OBPs by half of the starters, coupled with frequent lineup switches, have left Alfonzo also bereft of many RBI opportunities. His plate discipline appears intact with a good BB:K(1.08 '02; .90 career), walk rate(.16 '02; .12 career), and #P/PA(3.99 '02; 3.94 career) while his contact rate(.86 '02; .87 career) holds steady. Most importantly, his G-F(.71 '02; .86 career) still remains at the level of his career years of 1999 and 2000. Alfonzo's value should only increase from this point, so strongly consider an attempt to acquire him before his power returns.

Philadelphia: Jason Michaels, OF
7/16 for .438/.500/.875 with 1 HR, 4 RBI, 4 R, 0/1 SB%, 2:3 BB:K, and 4-5 G-F.

Philadelphia is another team where no one player is performing significantly above our expectations. Following Travis Lee's recent struggles, we've read rumors indicating that he might see some extended time out of the starting lineup, opening up a spot for Michaels.

We attended an AFL game last year where Michaels creamed one pitch 410 feet to left-center, followed by a 3-run homer to put the game away. Larry Bowa was observing the Phillies' prospects that day and certainly appeared impressed by the performance, and Baseball America reported in this year's prospect handbook that Bowa likes Michaels' competitiveness.

Although we don't expect any overly impressive stats from him in full-time play, he compiled the following MLEs last season at age 26 in AAA: .251/53/15/63/10, along with a .28 BB:K, .08 walk rate, and .69 contact rate in 418 AB before a late-season call-up. He offers promising power/speed upside and should be a great cheap FAAB target to acquire if you can leave him on reserve, and if he starts seeing more playing time, see if anyone else will trade a more established player for him. He'd be an acceptable 5th OF or UT on most rosters as soon as he finds even a platoon job, so watch this situation over the next few weeks. While he's not a long-term solution at any level, he offers significant short-term potential.

Pittsburgh: Jack Wilson, SS
18/66 for .273/.342/.333 with 0 HR, 8 RBI, 6 R, 1/1 SB%, 6:9 BB:K, and 26-20 G-F

We've hit a fairly unfortunate streak of teams here, one that makes me slightly question this format for underachiever/overachiever articles over the coming months. However, I see no reason not to continue examining potential irregularities in players' stat lines if no one is particularly impressive, but I'm also open to suggestions other than covering one player per team each month.

Considering Wilson played so poorly last April that he spent most of May in AAA, his performance this season registers as rather shocking despite an OPS of only .675. We predicted a .229/44/3/26/5 line for him this year in only 350 AB since we expected him to lose at least a month or two on another AAA stint.

All leading indicators of his plate discipline have positively improved this year, including his BB:K(.67 '02; .23 '01), walk rate(.09 '02; .04 '01), #P/PA(3.73 '02; 3.59 '01), and contact rate(.86 '02; .82 '01). His G-F(1.30 '02; 1.23 '01) has stayed nearly the same, and we'd be concerned if someone with Wilson's historically limited power starter trying to launch every pitch. I'd expected to find that you should move Wilson now before his BA heads back towards the Mendoza Line, but while he's still not a good offensive player, his skill ratios have reached acceptable levels. There's no reason right now not to wait on Wilson to see if he develops more by the end of the year.

San Diego: Sean Burroughs, 3B
23/77 for .299/.316/.390 with 1 HR, 3 RBI, 7 R, 0/0 SB%, 2:13 BB:K, and 35-15 G-F.

Nevin and Klesko are providing nearly all of San Diego's offense, each with an OPS over .950 and further establishing his All-Star credentials. The next highest OPS is Mark Kotsay's .738, so Burroughs' place as only the third Padre with a BA above .267 deserves examination.

Probably the best way to judge Burroughs' development this year is by comparing his 2002 performance to his MLEs from the last two years.

Year	Level	AB	BB:K	WR	CT	BA	OPS
2000	AA	392	1.25	.10	.91	.263	.698
2001	AAA	394	.73	.08	.89	.317	.824
2002	SD	77	.15	.03	.83	.299	.706

San Francisco: David Bell, 3B
25/91 for .275/.337/.440 with 3 HR, 13 RBI, 16 R, 0/0 SB%, 9:15 BB:K, and 27-34 G-F.

Bell's 2002 stat line includes career-highs in BA, OBP, and SLG, numbers that appear more impressive considering his .602 April OPS over the last five years, a number over a hundred points below any other month. His plate discipline statistics support his improvement as shown by his BB:K(.83 '02; .51 career), walk rate(.10 '02; .08 career), and #P/PA(4.09 '02; 3.78 career). Thanks again to Mat Olkins' G-F theories regarding power development, we expected noticeable power improvement as his G-F dropped from 1.00 in 1999 to .86 in 2000 and .65 last year, neither the 1.00 nor .65 mark is that unusual when compared to his .85 career norm. A .79 G-F this season seems in line with his established level, and since his contact rate(.84 '02; .85 career) also hasn't improved, we don't foresee much additional development. However he's now seen almost a third of his at-bats in the leadoff slot, where he's posting an amazing .394 OBP and .949 OPS in 27 AB, and he's managed a .367 OBP and .519 OPS from the #7 slot, also in 27 AB. His problems have occurred almost exclusively when batting second, and in light of the unimpressive performances of Shinjo and Benard, Bell may remain as the Giants' leadoff hitter. Don't expect great power numbers, but Bell suddenly appears a capable BA source who also might help in runs, so you might want to acquire him if you're short in either category.

St. Louis: Eli Marrero, C/OF
20/63 for .317/.368/.444 with 1 HR, 8 RBI, 8 R, 6/6 SB%, 5:9 BB:K, and 20-22 G-F.

Edmonds, Drew, and Pujols continue to rip baseballs, but Marrero began the year as one of the top roto players over the first couple of weeks. Even as he's slowed down over the last week or two, he remains a very good option for a second catcher or fifth outfielder, and he doesn't rank higher only because of questionable playing time. Marrero's always shown good speed upside and merely took advantage of increased early playing time to rack up a half-dozen steals. We don't see great improvement in any of skills as his BB:K(.56 '02; .44 career), walk rate(.08 '02; .08 career), #P/PA(3.46 '02; 3.54 career), and G-F(.91 '02; 1.18 career) all remain fairly constant. The .91 G-F is a huge drop from last season's career-high 1.61, but I have doubts as to whether that will translate into increased home runs since even the "best" improvement here in his contact rate(.86 '02; .83 career) isn't that significant. You should likely wait for continued potential development if you didn't move him two weeks ago, although I can't recommend trading for Marrero without a certain starting job.

Today's Fantasy Rx: If your team needs offense due to losing two or more of your better players to injury, strongly consider making an offer for at least one of the hitters listed over the last two days as good players to acquire.