Today's Fantasy Rx

Note: Whenever I list three averages for hitters in a row, the order is as follows: BA/OBP/SLG.

Anaheim: Garret Anderson, OF
32/98 for .327/.350/.561 with 3 HR, 16 RBI, 17 R, 1/1 SB%, 4:15 BB:K, and 30-37 G-F.

April is traditionally Anderson's worst month as he's only managed a .717 OPS over the last five years. Due to his low BB:K, he'll always be a particularly streaky hitter, but both his .27 BB:K and .85 contact rate are duplicates of his 2001 final marks. While his plate discipline hasn't improved at all, his .81 G-F is the sixth straight year that he's hit a greater percentage of flyballs, and his first year under 1.00. He'd reached 1.70 in 1996, followed by years of 1.69, 1.64, 1.53, 1.11, and then 1.09 last year. Any positive trend lasting over half a decade certainly deserves mention, so I believe at least his SLG development will continue. Anderson appears ready to improve on his career-high 35 homers from 2000, so acquire him if you need power as long as you realize that his BA is likely to return to near .300 by the end of the year.

Baltimore: Marty Cordova, OF/DH
18/54 for .333/.400/.500 with 1 HR, 8 RBI, 7 R, 0/1 SB%, 6:12 BB:K, and 19-16 G-F.

Cordova is a notoriously hot starter with both a 1.174 OPS in 2001 and .831 over the last five years, including his best OBP and second best OPS of any month. While he's never dramatically exceeded .5 BB:K, he's at least maintaining steady plate discipline, although a .77 contact rate is back down towards his Minnesota days instead of the numbers of the last two years. Given Baltimore's overall capabilities on offense and Cordova's normal trends, you should attempt to deal him no later than the end of May before he begins to tire in the Summer Camden Crabbake.

Boston: Shea Hillenbrand, 3B
28/83 for .337/.391/.602 with 5 HR, 22 RBI, 17 R, 2/2 SB%, 7:11 BB:K, and 28-27 G-F.

Hillenbrand posted an OPS of .872 or better in both April and July of last year, a .729 OPS in August, and he never bettered .581 in the other three months. A .993 OPS is certainly an improvement over these numbers, but his skills support this development to a great extent. After a .21 BB:K for all of 2001 and .09 last April, he's at .64 now, and his contact rate is holding steady at .87 this year compared to .89 last April and .87 for all of 2001. I'm also rather impressed by the sudden drop in his G-F from 1.55 to 1.04 this year. Probably the most ringing endorsement I can provide for him is that we used one of our 12 Diamond Challenge buys to pick him up a week ago rather than wait two extra weeks to simply get him as a free agent, where we can't control what players are eligible each week. Given the national media coverage of Hillenbrand, I don't think his value can really increase much more without an almost unprecedented power surge, so he's probably not an easy acquisition in most leagues. I might take a brief run at him in AL leagues, but definitely at least wait another few weeks before making any moves if you already own him.

Chicago White Sox: Kenny Lofton, OF
33/95 for .347/.421/.442 with 1 HR, 12 RBI, 27 R, 11/15 SB%, 12:13 BB:K, and 39-22 G-F.

Paul Konerko has also significantly developed offensively this year, but Lofton's numbers are a much greater departure from our expectations. Even with an 0-for-11 skid bringing his average down to .347, his offensive skills have returned to his best days in Cleveland. Improvements in BB:K(.92 '02; .68 '01; .91 career), walk rate(.13 '02; .08 '01; .12 career), and SB%(.73 '02; .67 '01; .80 career) bode well for a continuation of his great start, and his contact rate(.87 '02; .87 '01; .88 career) has remained solid, indicating that he's still controlling the strike zone. His G-F has snapped back to 1.77 after four seasons of attempted power-hitting left him at 1.12, so he's returned to his traditionally successful approach; he's likely in line for a big Baltimore payday if he can stay even remotely close to this pace. You may have more faith in his resurrection than me, but even if we owned him anywhere, we'd be looking to deal him now before age and potential injuries wreck his value.

Cleveland: Omar Vizquel
26/90 for .289/.359/.500 with 3 HR, 13 RBI, 17 R, 6/7 SB%, 10:7 BB:K, and 31-37 G-F.

I expected him to decline for similar reasons as Lofton, so his rather solid start surprises me. Vizquel both started and ended 2001 with months of sub-.525 OPS, and April has also been his worst month over the last five years for all three primary averages. However, "worst" isn't quite relevant here as he remains relatively consistent with BAs from .270-.302, OBPs from .348 to .367, and SLGs from .350 to .402 over the course of the season. His BB:K(1.43 '02; 1.00 career), walk rate(.11 '02; .10 career), and contact rate(.92 '02; .90 career) are all relatively close to his averages, so the big shock here is his SLG and G-F numbers. A .84 G-F is easily the best of his career and a huge drop from 2001's 1.27 and his 1.33 career mark. He's only dropped below 1.00 once before in 1999 when he managed .99, but other than '99 and 1998's 1.06, he's never fallen below 1.23 in any other full season. He might reach a career-high in homers this year, finally breaking double digits, but as with Lofton, I continue to harbor concerns about age and potential injury. You can again heed your counsel if you wish, but we'd be looking to deal Vizquel now before Cleveland's offense falls apart.

Detroit: Randall Simon, 1B/DH
23/65 for .354/.382/.723 with 7 HR, 20 RBI, 12 R, 0/0 SB%, 2:2 BB:K, and 31-16 G-F.

Like many of you, we're also kicking ourselves for failing to pick him up at the end of our AL drafts instead of counting on the return or emergence of guys like Brady Anderson and Jeff Liefer. We knew Simon had good potential but his injury and DL trip scared us away. He's already exceeded his season-high home run total and appears likely to double his pre-season career 11 homers by mid-May in less than 25% of his career AB. Simon reached 18 home runs in three different years of his minor league career, but these skills trouble me.

While his 1.00 BB:K is actually slightly below his mark in the first half of last season, his walk rate(.03 '02; .06 career) has dropped back to his MLE level from 1997. The one shocking aspect of his development is a simply awesome contact rate of .97, a full .05 higher than his previous five seasons, and .07 above his career mark. He's managed this tremendous power development despite remaining a consistent groundball hitter who owns a 1.94 G-F in 2002 and a 2.20 career G-F. He might have approached some historical totals in April if he was actually a flyball hitter, but without great G-F improvement, I don't see how he can continue to post these numbers. Deal him now based on the superficially solid skills, although feel free to make us an offer since we need more power.

Kansas City: Joe Randa, 3B
18/61 for .295/.365/.508 with 1 HR, 14 RBI, 7 R, 1/2 SB%, 9:10 BB:K, and 25-16 G-F.

No one likely expected Randa to lead the Royals in RBI through April, but he's regained the consistency previously displayed in 1999 and 2000 as most of the other Royals have struggled. April is easily Randa's worst month over the last five years as his .668 OPS is .020 behind August and .115 behind any other month He's posted the best BB:K(.90 '02; .58 career) of his career so far, and his walk rate(.15 '02; .08 career) is nearly double his career average. I'm a little worried about his drop in contact rate(.84 '02; .86 career) and a rising G-F for the third straight year; he's returned to his groundball ways after a 1.08 G-F in 1999, followed by 1.24, 1.27, and now 1.56 this year, a full .25 above his 1.31 norm. Even if he's displaying great patience, as evidenced by his 4.40 #P/PA, close to a pitch per AB over his 3.59 average, he isn't showing any real power development. I see no reason why he can't hold a BA around .300, but he'll be lucky to reach 10 homers. Wait to see if he continues his traditional improvement over the next few months before, like the Royals, you likely look to trade him prior to July 31st.

Minnesota: Torii Hunter
35/97 for .361/.402/.649 with 8 HR, 18 RBI, 21 R, 5/6 SB%, 8:20 BB:K, and 39-28 G-F.

While Hunter normally struggles in April, he's also a very streaky hitter who can struggle at any time. We're not pleased at an off-season trade of ours that sent Hunter and Shin-Soo Choo for Carlos Lee and Mitch Meluskey, but Lee still has a good chance of finishing with a higher value than Hunter. Hunter has not demonstrated much development in most batting skills, including his BB:K(.4 '02; .29 career), walk rate(.08 '02; .06 career), contact rate(.79 '02; .79 career), or G-F ratio(1.39 '02; 1.47 career). He's increased his #P/PA to a career-high 3.73 over his 3.52 average, but I see little evidence to support any significant improvement other than a solid SB%. Hunter's value may never be higher, so certainly at least consider a deal for a more consistent player with better demonstrated skills.

New York Yankees: Alfonso Soriano, 2B
40/110 for .364/.388/.627 with 5 HR, 16 RBI, 21 R, 6/9 SB%, 4:29 BB:K, and 25-34 G-F.

Soriano appears to have forgotten his second-half improvement last season as his skills have decreased from already questionable levels. He's regressed in BB:K(.14 '02; .23 '01), walk rate(.04 '02; .05 '01), contact rate(.74 '02; .78 '01), or #P/PA(3.49 '02; 3.84 '01). The only positive skill development thus far is the drop in his G-F from .97 last year to .74 this season. However, even if his BA drops 100 points down to last year's .268, he'll still be a valuable contributor to most roto teams because of his power/speed upside. Consider a deal only for one of the established stars in the league as I have a feeling that Soriano's skills will catch up to his production eventually, although he might need a few more years. Your only other choice is to wait in the hope that his skill development will occur much sooner than expected.

Oakland: Jeremy Giambi, OF
30/87 for .345/.477/.517 with 4 HR, 10 RBI, 16 R, 0/0 SB%, 19:20 BB:K, and 29-24 G-F.

I had no desire to include Giambi this year because we expected great improvement from this year as we made him our Top 2002 AL Batter Sleeper. However he's still performing above even our projections, so we need to determine if he's showing skill development underneath his great production. We thoroughly approve of his BB:K(.95 '02; .70 career), walk rate(.22 '02; .16 career), and #P/PA(4.46 '02; 4.09 career) while he's maintaining an adequate contact rate(.77 '02; .77 career) and G-F(1.21 '02; 1.17 career). He won't emerge as a credible middle-of-the-order hitter and potential 30 HR source until he begins focusing more on flyballs, but there's no reason he can't push $20 this season while stepping out of Jason's shadow. If his current owner believes this improvement won't continue, take advantage of that lack of preparation by attempting to acquire Jeremy since he should roughly maintain this pace while only witnessing a mild drop in BA.

Seattle: Carlos Guillen, SS
26/82 for .317/.394/.476 with 1 HR, 17 RBI, 19 R, 1/2 SB%, 11:13 BB:K, and 31-27 G-F.

While Ruben Sierra continues his amazing comeback with a 1.047 OPS, nobody expected Guillen to lead the Mariners in RBI while also only one behind Cameron for the team lead in runs. Guillen, like Hunter, is supporting the age 26 with 2+ years of experience breakout as he's made small but solid improvements in BB:K(.85 '02; .56 career), walk rate(.13 '02; .11 career), contact rate(.84 '02; .81 career), #P/PA(4.01 '02; 3.85 career), and G-F(1.15 '02; 1.24 career). Seattle has also faced fairly competent pitching for the entire month, exclusively playing Oakland, New York, Anaheim, Chicago, and Texas this month, so Guillen's across-the-board improvement seems fully support by his skill development. He definitely appears a good target to acquire if you need MIF stability since while he's unlikely to exceed these marks, he seems capable of maintaining these averages for much of the year.

Tampa Bay: Randy Winn, OF
28/90 for .311/.323/.433 with 1 HR, 16 RBI, 11 R, 4/7 SB%, 2:12 BB:K, and 37-23 G-F.

Ben Grieve's return to power-hitting and the continued high level of play from both Steve Cox and Chris Gomez all rank as surprises, but none of those players appear likely to lose their jobs in the relatively near future. Winn only beat out Troy O'Leary to earn his starting job, but with Carl Crawford playing great in AAA and the Rays in desperate need of real power from outside the organization, both Winn and Tyner will be lucky to remain starters throughout the year. Winn's averages might be better for now but his skills remain very weak; his BB:K(.17 '02; .45 career), walk rate(.02 '02; .08 career), and #P/PA(3.62 '02; 3.89 career) all have dropped to normally unacceptable levels, and even improvements in contact rate(.87 '02; .81 career) and G-F(1.61 '02; 2.20 career) don't necessarily compliment his talents. Talk up his BA, SB, and RBI pace, and deal him now for a more established players.

Texas: Hank Blalock, 3B
12/66 for .182/.280/.273 with 0 HR, 3 RBI, 4 R, 0/0 SB%, 8:25 BB:K, and 16-12 G-F.

No, this isn't a typo; Texas doesn't have a single hitter performing greatly above expectations, so considering Blalock has no business in the majors right now, he's overachieving by a whole level. We were sucked in to they hype like everyone else this Spring, even purchasing him on all our Challenge teams to free up salary elsewhere, and now we're stuck scrambling for players like Hillenbrand since we have a major hole in our offense. Blalock had a good year in 2000 with an .800 OPS at A Savannah over 512 AB, but then a .994 OPS at A+ Charlotte over 237 AB and a .957 OPS at AA Tulsa over 272 AB convinced everyone he was ready for the majors. He's shown that he definitely needs at least a half-year of AAA, but he's still a year ahead of where you'd normally expect him to be. He still should have a great career, although that career shouldn't be starting until at least July considering these weak skills across-the-board, and if you already own him, either wait for that improvement or deal him to a rebuilding team now.

Toronto: Eric Hinske, 3B
27/81 for .333/.415/.494 with 1 HR, 12 RBI, 14 R, 2/2 SB%, 12:25 BB:K, and 24-23 G-F.

We expected solid power and speed numbers but this BA is probably 80 points above expectations. He's never managed better than a .243 MLE and he never broke .300 during any full season in the minors. While you'll need to address your team BA if Hinske's leading your team thus far, the rest of these stats look approximately on target. He should still emerge as a very rotisserie-friendly 20/20 third baseman within the next two years even if you can't count on a high average. You should likely wait for these marks to level out, although I'd be open to a BA-for-power deal for a more established player.

Today's Fantasy Rx: A few fast starters will build on their early improvement to truly impressive seasons, but most will regress as expected to career norms. Anderson, Giambi, and Guillen all appear to be establishing new levels of performance, so consider making an offer for at least one of them before their current owners won't trade them.