Today's Fantasy Rx

Let's take a look at this year's top NL pitchers through April 25th, specifically focusing on their PQS DOM scores. With this still necessarily limited sample size, we're only going to examine pitchers who have at least three starts of at least a 4, including at least one 5 start. We'll rank them in descending order with pitchers who've thrown the most 5's first, and then sorting by those who've shown improvement by fixing the problems from their other starts as follows, thereby posting the most recent 5's. A lack of starts will not be held against the pitcher for ranking purposes.

555455
Randy Johnson(1234abcxyz LPR): 6-0 on 61:11 K:BB in 46 IP with 28 H, 2 HR, and 66-23 G-F. The shocking number here is the G-F ratio, as he's at 2.87 after only hitting 1.80 once, and even that was his only full season above 1.31. If you have the chance to pick him up, you must make the deal as he's on track for one of the best seasons in history. Here's an out-on-a-limb projection for you: Randy Johnson has at least a 50% chance of winning 30 games this year.

55055
Al Leiter(123abxyz LPR): 2-1 on 30:9 K:BB in 32 IP with 20 H, 1 HR, and 46-24 G-F. The most underrated pitcher in baseball continues his excellence in seeming obscurity in Queens. He still won't be great for wins because of the Mets' weak offense, but he's a lock to continue making great contributions in the other categories.

53455
Roy Oswalt(123a LPR): 3-0 on 36:7 K:BB in 33 IP with 34 H, 2 HR, and 37-32 G-F. He'll finish the year with an ERA under 3.00 despite making half his starts in Astros' Field, and he might even crack 2.50. I'm a little worried about his worsening G-F ratio as he's down from 1.46 last year, but his dominance should allow him to overcome any flyball problem.

55445
Curt Schilling(134abcxyz LPR): 4-1 on 48:5 K:BB in 37 IP with 29 H, 3 HR, and 33-31 G-F. The second best pitcher in baseball remains practically automatic, and now that he has his homer problem from the first half of 2001 under control, he might be able to win 20 again even without much offensive support.

55115
Shawn Estes(z LPR): 2-1 on 24:12 K:BB in 32 IP with 27 H, 3 HR, and 39-35 G-F. Regardless of his Friday one-hitter and near perfect game, I remain concerned about these numbers. He'll never be a great strikeout pitcher, and his G-F has plummeted from 2.06 in 2000 to 1.64 last year and now 1.11, severely under his career 1.80. Perhaps this only indicates that he'll improve to his average over the course of the year, but I'd recommend selling high here instead of hoping for another great performance.

53554
Vicente Padilla(123 LPR): 2-2 on 35:11 K:BB in 33 IP with 26 H, 3 HR, and 48-23 G-F. While he'd still make a fantastic closer, he'll remain an excellent starter as long as Bowa doesn't overwork him. He's a definite trade target if his current owner believes in selling high here.

34455
Glendon Rusch(1234by LPR): 1-2 on 27:8 K:BB in 36.2 IP with 25 H, 3 HR, and 50-35 G-F. While the 1.43 G-F is the best mark of his career, all these other stats are right in line with his 2000 numbers. Due to continually weak offensive support, he will be lucky to reach a dozen wins for the first time in his career. However Rusch would be a great addition for any team needing ERA and WHIP stabilization.

32455
Brett Tomko(1 LPR): 2-1 on 28:12 K:BB in 34.2 IP with 23 H, 2 HR, and 39-38 G-F. Everyone knew that San Diego would have good pitching this year, but the emergence of Tomko is making his owners very happy. I do have a couple concerns as he's yet to face any great offenses in Arizona, Los Angeles, and San Francisco twice, and he'll still have some problems with ERA/WHIP since he hasn't been to Colorado yet.

5245
David Williams(No LPR): 2-2 on 18:10 K:BB in 23.1 IP with 13 H, 5 HR, and 29-23 G-F. Two starts against the Cubs, followed by Milwaukee and Los Angeles have left him with a rather impressive stat line this year. He's made a great jump from last season but still needs to demonstrate more consistency before I can recommend him.

25345
Tony Armas, Jr.(1ax LPR): 3-2 on 28:16 K:BB in 32 IP with 25 H, 4 HR, and 45-28 G-F. His walk rate is too high and he's allowing too many baserunners, but he could be as good as Javier Vazquez in another two or three years. He's still too undisciplined for a top-two starter on any team, so you should attempt to insure that you have at least two more consistent starters on your team.

5450
Brandon Duckworth(23x LPR): 1-1 on 31:8 K:BB in 20.2 IP with 21 H, 3 HR, and 19-19 G-F. I'd expect him to cruise past $20 in 5x5 leagues next year since he's both a relatively safe bet and is showing tremendous strikeout potential. His best minor league numbers were only 9.7 K/9 in AA and 9.2 K/9 in AAA over the last two years, so while he won't continue his 13.5 K/9, I see no reason for him not to at least push 10 K/9 for the year.

5544
Jeff D'Amico(y LPR): 2-1 on 19:5 K:BB in 28.1 IP with 22 H, 1 HR, and 31-32 G-F. I see few problems in these numbers, and his performance is even more impressive considering he's faced Montreal, St. Louis, and Atlanta twice. He's still an injury risk and I'd still sell high if we owned him, but I'm beginning to believe in his effectiveness; he might break $10 for the year if he stays healthy.

53544
A.J. Burnett(xyz LPR): 3-2 on 36:13 K:BB in 34.2 IP with 26 H, 2 HR, and 35-38 G-F. He posted split decisions against Montreal and Atlanta before beating Houston, so thus far he's managing some of the best numbers in the league against some of the best competition in the league. My one concern is a G-F ratio that has dropped nearly in half over the last four years, descending from 1.78 G-F to 1.17, 1.13, and now .92 this year. So even with great ratios, he still could run into some problems this year.

55434
Matt Morris(123ac LPR): 4-1 on 33:10 K:BB in 33 IP with 34 H, 2 HR, and 49-26 G-F. He only missed a 5 in his one less to the Mets by one hit, so he appears to have pitched through the couple of starts after his 125-pitch outing without much difficulty. Monitor his pitch counts as La Russa will heavily lean on Morris and Kile until he gets another starter or two back, but Morris should remain a top starter all year.

55243
Ryan Dempster(3abxy LPR): 0-2 on 26:13 K:BB in 36.2 IP with 36 H, 5 HR, and 44-43 G-F. He's still not winning any games, but with an ERA that appears rather high considering his solid skills, he could be a great acquisition at a bargain price right now.

4445
Josh Beckett(1.5 LPR): 0-1 on 26:9 K:BB in 24.2 IP with 19 H, 1 HR, and 19-28 G-F. His G-F isn't showing much improvement and remains very close to last year's ratios. However his dominance and command indicate a tremendous talent who's likely to challenge for Rookie of the Year even without many wins.

44405
John Thomson(ax LPR): 3-2 on 23:5 K:BB in 29.1 IP with 33 H, 3 HR, and G-F. We went ahead and picked him up in one of our "experts"' leagues as we're sold on his upside, especially after his solid 2001. I still hate his dreadful .57 G-F ratio, but I'm finally comfortable recommending a Rockies' starter as long as you have the ability to reserve him at your leisure.

4452
Pedro Astacio(1acxz LPR): 3-1 on 27:7 K:BB in 28 IP with 31 H, 3 HR, and 35-34 G-F. After a few years of compiling relatively acceptable numbers at Coors, no one should be surprised at this dominance upon his shift to one of the best pitchers' parks in baseball. You shouldn't give up much in trade for him because of the injury risk, but definitely keep him if you already own him.

24454
Brian Lawrence(123ax LPR): 3-1 on 17:6 K:BB in 35.1 IP with 28 H, 2 HR, and 71-29 G-F. Lawrence continues to be one of the best early Challenge plays due to his amazing control. Even his 2.45 G-F Ratio is almost identical to last season, so there's no reason for him not to maintain excellent qualitative numbers.

44354
Javier Vazquez(123abxy LPR): 0-1 on 20:4 K:BB in 35 IP with 33 H, 4 HR, and 46-44 G-F. He should have at least a couple of wins if not for dreadful run support of 3.1 R/G. His shallow strikeout rate is worrisome, but the great WHIP nicely compensates for the deficiency.

5443
Damian Moss(1.5 LPR): 0-0 on 16:8 K:BB in 24 IP over 5 G with 15 H, 5 HR, and 32-29 G-F. Starting Pitching is like NFL quarterbacks in that you have to have decent depth in case of injury if you expect to win. Teams with that extra lefty potential starter in the pen like New York with Hitchcock and Lilly, Boston with Fossum, and Atlanta with Moss have a great advantage over teams without adequate replacements. Moss isn't likely to break $10 this year, but he should remain a capable 4th or 5th roto starter for the next few months.

4540
Kevin Millwood(34bcxyz LPR): 2-2 on 25:10 K:BB in 29 IP over 5 G with 27 H, 3 HR, and 32-38 G-F. Millwood hasn't even hit 100 pitches once, so while Atlanta is being careful with him, he's also only made it into the 8th inning once. Expect more inconsistency this season as he continues to recover from last year's injury problems. He's still likely to emerge as Atlanta's most dependable young right-handed starter this season, but don't expect great ERA and WHIP numbers until next year.

534453
Tom Glavine(xyz LPR): 4-1 on 29:12 K:BB in 40.1 IP with 31 H, 1 HR, and 47-46 G-F. I've seen him touted for NL Pitcher of the Month, but his only single relevant statistic more impressive than Unit's is that Glavine's allowed one less home run. A .89 ERA and 1.07 WHIP are certainly less impressive than Randy's 1.37 ERA and .85 WHIP. The difference in wins and strikeouts should sway whomever votes on this "award", but at least the NL has two excellent candidates.

Remaining pitchers with at least 3 starts and no DISasters(0/1 PQS):
(in alphabetical order)

Andy Ashby(4 LPR): 5325; 1-2 on 17:15 K:BB in 23 IP with 20 H, 0 HR, and 42-21 G-F.

Matt Clement(1y LPR): 3553; 1-2 on 36:5 K:BB in 25 IP with 26 H, 2 HR, and 27-20 G-F.

Nelson Figueroa(24x LPR): 233; 0-1 on 10:7 K:BB in 23.1 IP over 6 G with 16 H, 5 HR, and 30-33 G-F.

Josh Fogg(No LPR): 5533; 3-0 on 21:8 K:BB in 24.2 IP with 19 H, 2 HR, and 30-28 G-F.

Joey Hamilton(No LPR): 24443; 1-1 on 19:21 K:BB in 30 IP with 31 H, 1 HR, and 60-22 G-F.

Rick Helling(y LPR): 34324; 3-2 on 22:8 K:BB in 29 IP with 32 H, 7 HR, and 36-39 G-F.

Livan Hernandez(3xyz LPR): 34234; 4-1 on 17:7 K:BB in 39 IP with 30 H, 3 HR, and 57-40 G-F.

Kazuhisa Ishii(1.5 LPR): 4442; 4-0 on 26:13 K:BB in 22.2 IP with 19 H, 0 HR, and 26-18 G-F.

Kevin Jarvis(x LPR): 4344; 1-3 on 15:5 K:BB in 24 IP with 20 H, 2 HR, and 29-27 G-F.

Bobby J. Jones(c LPR): 2235; 2-1 on 12:5 K:BB in 25.1 IP with 26 H, 5 HR, and 35-31 G-F.

Darryle Kile(1abxy LPR): 4444; 1-0 on 17:7 K:BB in 24 IP with 18 H, 1 HR, and 26-33 G-F.

Jon Lieber(24acxyz LPR): 2534; 3-0 on 12:2 K:BB in 26 IP with 20 H, 1 HR, and 33-39 G-F.

Russ Ortiz(1axz LPR): 43433; 2-1 on 16:12 K:BB in 32 IP with 27 H, 5 HR, and 53-30 G-F.

Carl Pavano(34y LPR): 34242; 2-2 on 25:12 K:BB in 31 IP with 42 H, 4 HR, and 50-37 G-F.

Odalis Perez(No LPR): 44444; 3-1 on 25:3 K:BB in 38.1 IP with 20 H, 2 HR, and 58-36 G-F.

Robert Person(abcy LPR): 24343; 0-3 on 18:12 K:BB in 31 IP with 24 H, 5 HR, and 32-44 G-F.

Kirk Rueter(No LPR): 4343; 2-1 on 10:5 K:BB in 28 IP with 17 H, 3 HR, and 32-39 G-F.

Todd Stottlemyre(4 LPR): 244; 0-1 on 10:5 K:BB in 16 IP with 15 H, 3 HR, and 27-11 G-F.

Randy Wolf(123abxy LPR): 443; 1-0 on 16:6 K:BB in 15.2 IP with 13 H, 2 HR, and 14-17 G-F.

Today's Fantasy Rx: If you own any pitcher from a group including Ashby, Figueroa, Hamilton, Person, and even Ortiz, consider dealing them at your first opportunity for one of the other pitchers listed above, as none of them either possess the track record or 2002 skills to support their relatively solid qualitative numbers to date. Ortiz, Person, and possibly Figueroa could rebound into excellent seasons, but I see no reason not to sell high on Ashby and Hamilton on any team where you might own them.