Today's Fantasy Rx

Note: My main concern for these pitchers will be examining those with weak ERAs.

Anaheim: Scott Schoeneweis, LH Starter
1-3 on 14:10 K:BB in 23.1 IP over 4 GS with 28 H, 5 HR, and 36:29 GB:FB; 7.33 ERA.

Anaheim named Schoeneweis as their fifth starter out of Spring Training, putting him behind the suddenly older Ramon Ortiz. Despite his great success in previous Aprils, he's failed to demonstrate any pitching proficiency this year and is likely in danger of losing his spot to the superior Matt Wise, currently pitching great in AAA.

Schoeneweis' 1.4 K:BB isn't even the lowest season-long mark of his career, and it's even better than last season's 1.35 and his career 1.30, but he's still lacking any semblance of major league command. While his 5.4 K/9 is superior to his career 4.5 mark, his 1.9 HR/9 is almost double his 1.0 career mark, and his 1.24 G-F ratio is far worse than his career 2.02. The increase in flyballs has logically aided an increase in his homer rate, limiting him to a weak 4130 PQS line. Fortunately, their schedule does begin to ease in the near future, and he's only faced Seattle and Texas to this point. Still, I'd certainly be open to a deal for even a decent middle reliever, and teams without a reserve roster definitely can't wait on him any longer.

Baltimore: B.J. Ryan, LH Specialist
0-0 on 7:3 K:BB in 6.2 IP over 7 G with 10 H, 1 HR, and 10:7 G-F; 9.45 ERA.

Ryan is left with mostly situational duty with Buddy Groom established as the primary short-relief lefty, and he appeared to be a great low-cost, low-risk middle reliever going into this season. His ERA should be concerning his owners by now, so we'll see if a replacement is required.

Ryan's 2.5 K:BB is actually superior to his 1.7 career mark, his 9.5 K/9 is just slightly below his career 9.6, and he's seen a small improvement in his HR/9(1.0 '02; 1.4 career). With his 1.42 G-F also nicely up from his 1.12 career average, his problems to date can be almost solely attributed to a 13.5 H/9 almost double his career 7.8 rate. This increased hittability is a cause for concern as his track record in April is fairly good, but all his other skill ratios are quite solid. Continue to wait for improvement if you expected him to provide a couple of wins with solid ERA, WHIP, and K/9, but don't go make any great effort to acquire him.

Boston: Rich Garces, RH Setup
0-0 on 2:1 K:BB in 5.1 IP over 6 G with 7 H, 1 HR, and 7-7 G-F; 10.12 ERA.

El Guapo was expected to perform quite capably as Urbina' s primary setup man, but perhaps the reported weight loss has affected his pitching ability. Sun-Woo Kim and Rolando Arrojo have been more valuable to this point, but most of the problem with his ERA can likely be attributed to the limited sample size, as he has managed 3 holds thus far.

Garces only began tossing out regular 2+ K:BB over the last two seasons, so a 2 K:BB at the moment is acceptable, as well as still better than his career 1.8. My main concern is his suddenly reduced 3.4 K/9, an unfortunate departure from his career 7.8 K/9. His 1 HR has left with him an elevated 1.7 HR/9, slightly double his career mark, and his high 11.8 H/9 is the first time in several seasons he's been over 9 H/9 or even much above his career 7.6 H/9. The best news in this line is that his 1.00 G-F is in line with the last two seasons and below his 1.12 career mark, leaving Garces as a potential target to acquire for solid middle relief work, vultured wins, and perhaps even some save opportunities.

Chicago White Sox: Antonio Osuna, RH Middle Reliever
3-0 on 8:5 K:BB in 10 IP over 7 G with 10 H, 0 HR, and 13-10 G-F; 6.30 ERA.

Chicago acquired Osuna last season to replace the injured Bill Simas; Osuna promptly followed Simas to the DL and was lost for the season. In Los Angeles, Osuna was one of the top closers-in-waiting in the NL when healthy. Now Jerry Manuel expects him to be the primary right-handed middle reliever of an apparently weak bullpen, but despite three lucky vultured wins helped by a league-leading offense, Osuna's ERA remains rather unacceptable for a roto reliever.

With a career 9.5 K/9, his 7.2 K/9 to date is mildly disappointing, as is his weak K:BB(1.6 '02; 2.4 career) and H/9(10.8 '02; 7.4 career). Even his G-F ratio, while not bad at 1.30, remains the highest mark of his career and well above his 0.86 average. Osuna did have the advantage of spending most of his career in Dodger Stadium, but aside from not allowing any homers so far and those vultured wins, I'm not too impressed with his results. While his K/9 should rise and his BB/9 should drop, I still don't expect him to emerge as a dominant setup man at this time. There's no reason not to wait for the probable improvement if you already own him, although he's also not a great acquisition right now.

Cleveland: Chuck Finley, LH Starter
1-2 on 14:7 K:BB in 13.2 IP over 3 GS with 21 H, 3 HR, and 17-16 G-F; 7.90 ERA.

Here we go again: We can likely attribute most of these struggles to his domestic difficulties, but Cleveland will certainly need him to step up if they're to regain their hot start. They really don't have many alternatives, and I believe Finley is also pitching for a new contract this season.

His K:BB(2 '02; 1.9 career) and K/9(9.2 '02; 7.3 career) are both looking very solid, but he's getting hit hard when he gets hit. A 13.8 H/9 is quite unacceptable compared to his 8.7 average, and a 2.0 HR/9 is well over double his .9 career mark. More disturbingly, I see a foundation for this increased home run rate as his 1.06 G-F is a career-worst rate, .25 below his average, and he hasn't even been below 1.37 since 1994. You could hold onto him and wait for the probable improvement, but you're probably better off with looking to deal deal Finley by playing up his great strikeout and win potential, and blaming his wife for his ERA problems. A 404 PQS log to date just shows his inconsistency, and while I think he's a solid pitcher to own, you might be able to grab someone with less risk in return.

Detroit: Mark Redman, LH Starter
0-3 on 14:11 K:BB in 24.1 IP over 4 GS with 27 H, 4 HR, and 34:30 G-F; 7.40 ERA.

Although I expected Redman and most Tigers' pitchers to struggle this year, no one was prepared for their almost record-setting start to the year. With most of Detroit's best pitching prospects at AA or below, they need someone like Redman to re-establish himself as a potential long-term member of the rotation, especially as he's the sole lefty currently starting for them.

His 0452 PQS log to date gives you a good idea of his relative inconsistency; his main asset has been pitching relatively deeply into games. With a career 2.0 K:BB and 6.4 K/9, he's well off those averages at only 1.3 K:BB and 5.2 K/9. His 1.5 HR/9 is up from his 1.3 average despite his best G-F ratio in three seasons at 1.13, a nice improvement over his 0.85 career mark. Even his 10.0 H/9 is also slightly improved from his 10.2 average, and combined with two dominant PQS scores, I see a lot of promise here despite the weak ERA. If he can keep his walks down, he could easily develop into a competent third starter by the end of the season. With everyone still down on Tigers, now seems a good time to acquire Redman in the expectation that his skills will continue to mature.

Kansas City: Cory Bailey, RH Setup
0-2 on 5:4 K:BB in 8.2 IP over 7 G with 12 H, 3 HR, and 17-6 G-F; 9.35 ERA.

With Roberto Hernandez still disabled, Bailey was expected to contribute as Grimsley's primary setup man or even to close himself. His weak start has dashed those plans, and Bailey will likely need to improve relatively soon to even maintain his roster spot.

Bailey's only two significant periods in the majors occurred in 2001 and then in 1996 with St. Louis. His minor league numbers have always been very solid and indicated his potential as perhaps even a closer, so last year's statistics are more representative of his upside than his actual career stats.

His 1.9 K/9 has fallen to 1.3 along with a corresponding 8.2 to 5.2 drop in K/9. After giving up only 3 HR in 67.1 IP last year for a .4 HR/9, he's allowed 3 HR in 8.2 IP this year for a 3.1 HR/9. His 12.5 H/9 is also almost a 50% increase from 2001's 8.4 H/9. The only positive sign among any of these marks is after posting an excellent 3.05 G-F ratio in 2001, he's continuing to induce a significant number of groundballs this season for a 2.83 ratio. I still don't trust him and would likely either deal or cut him if we had him anywhere, but there's at least a small sign of hope for improvement.

Minnesota: Brad Radke, RH Starter
2-2 on 14:8 K:BB in 26.1 IP over 5 GS with 34 H, 1 HR, and 39-28 G-F; 6.84 ERA.

While Joe Mays and Kyle Lohse's starts have been painful for their owners, most people expect great consistency from a nominal ace like Radke. Following his rookie season, his ERA has bounced between the ranges of 4.30-4.46 and 3.74-3.94. After last year's 3.94, a .50 rise is likely, but he's been a bit hit-happy thus far.

A 04310 has chronicled Radke's apparent meltdown, and he's posted this line despite facing only Toronto, Detroit, Tampa Bay, and Kansas City twice. He's always succeed because of great command, posting a career 3.0 K:BB, but he's stuck with a 1.8 this year. Since he's also not striking anyone out with a 4.8 K/9, down from an already weak 5.5 career mark, only a surprisingly low homer rate(.3 '02; 1.2 career HR/9) has kept his ERA this low. The other problem is an unfortunately elevated hit rate that's reached 11.6 H/9, a full 2 H/9 above his average. While he has managed the best G-F ratio of his career at 1.39, that's done little other than to depress his homer rate. He should be able to return to form if he regains his command, but I'm just too concerned about his performance against very weak competition to recommend him. Go ahead and deal him if you'll receive almost full value in return; otherwise hope for the best since he's still one of the most consistent pitchers in the majors.

New York Yankees: Roger Clemens, RH Hall of Fame Starter
2-2 on 34:13 K:BB in 31 IP over 5 GS with 28 H, 2 HR, and 39-27 G-F; 5.52 ERA.

Ramiro Mendoza is pitching worse but he simply appears to be very hit-happy since his return from injury. Clemens is running the worst starting ERA on the team, and he likely won't reach this low level again for some time.

Clemens has posted a 5-start PQS of 05355. He was fine in the first start until, as previously mentioned, he attempted to field a grounder with his right hand and promptly was lit by Baltimore. His 3 occurred because he made an emergency start on three days of rest, so he's basically thrown all 5s when healthy and rested. With his K:BB(2.6 '02; 3.0 career), K/9(9.9 '02; 8.6 career), HR/9(.6 '02 .6 career), H/9(8.1 '02; 7.7 career), and G-F(1.44 '02; 1.48 career) all approaching or better than his career marks, Clemens shows no sign of slowing and should approach his seventh Cy Young this year. Talk up his ERA and make every attempt to immediately acquire him.

Oakland: Jeff Tam, RH Setup
0-0 on 2:2 K:BB in 8.2 IP over 8 G with 13 H, 0 HR, and 16-11 G-F; 7.72 ERA.

We were on the Tam bandwagon fairly early in Oakland due to his great start, but his lack of strikeouts soon turned us off. We've generally avoided him for the last two years, instead grabbing guys like Mecir and Bradford who offer more upside. Tam's contract and recent history will keep him in the majors despite this slow start, but with a couple solid relievers already in AAA, he'll need to show improvement soon to avoid a trade.

The problem appears to be the complete disappearance of his strikeouts as he's slipped to 2.1 K/9 from an already unacceptable 5.0 career K/9. His command continues to slip for the second straight year, and he's now languishing at 1 K:BB, again below his 1.7 career mark. We can trace his ERA problems to an elevated 13.5 H/9, a rather dramatic increase from his 8.7 career rate. As he's only allowed three homers in each of the last two years, his perfect 2002 record doesn't surprise me, although his G-F has fallen from 2.49 in 2000 to 2.08 last year, and it's down to 1.45 this season. If Koch's owner is at all concerned about the Oakland closing situation, try to deal Tam to him now before a rising homer rate strands Tam's ERA over 5.00.

Seattle: Paul Abbott, RH Starter
1-1 on 17:14 K:BB in 18.2 IP over 4 GS with 24 H, 3 HR, and 26-22 G-F; 9.64 ERA.

While we certainly expected some problems this season, the struggles of all of Seattle's starters and Abbott in particular have been far more severe than anticipated. Abbott's relatively lucky to have even one win off these numbers, but he'll likely remain in the rotation for at least another month almost regardless of his performance and current 0330 PQS log.

Although his K:BB has normally been poor, this year's 1.2 is even worse than the normal 1.4. The shocking statistic is that his K/9 has reached 8.2, far above his 6.6 career average, so his improved strikeout rate has been more than matched by his worsening walk rate. A jump from his 8.1 H/9 average to 2002's 11.6 H/9 leaves him with a truly horrible WHIP of 2.04. After two years of starting have lowered his career G-F ratio down to .92, along with a .76 G-F last season, a rise to 1.18 has caused an accompanying HR/9 rise to 1.4 from his 1.1 career mark. Given these struggles and our preseason worries, I'd be willing to take almost any deal to get Abbott off my roster before further damage occurred. Point to his solid K/9 rate in an attempt to entice your opponent.

Tampa Bay: Jesus Colome, RH Reliever
1-2 on 11:7 K:BB in 10.2 IP over 8 G with 16 H, 1 HR, and 13-10 G-F; 9.28 ERA.

We were quite concerned before the season that Colome needed more time in the minors, and even more surprised when he was named a potential closer candidate if they traded Yan. He only pitched 17.1 IP at AAA, and with Tampa's need for top starters, I also don't understand why he's been moved to the bullpen, unless they just want him to build his arm strength.

While the rise in his K/9 rate to 9.3 from 2001's 5.8 is a very positive development, his command has stayed fairly weak at only 1.6 K:BB, up from 1.2 last year. His ERA struggles are primarily attributable to a 13.5 H/9, practically double his previous 6.8 mark. Although .8 HR/9 is a nice improvement from 1.5, he's only managed a slight improvement in his G-F to 1.30 from 1.37. He's certainly allowing too many baserunners, but I like the rise in his strikeout rate, so I see no reason to either add or drop him at this time; wait for improvement in his qualitative numbers if you already own him unless you have a definitely superior option.

Texas: Rudy Seanez, RH Reliever
0-2 on 10:6 K:BB in 7.2 IP over 7 G with 9 H, 2 HR, and 10-9 G-F; 7.04 ERA.

While six Texas pitchers have worse ERAs, I'm not sure any of them is guaranteed to pitch much in the near future. Seanez will likely remain in the majors as long as he's healthy, and this ERA is a little high even considering his limited playing time.

Again I'm most impressed by the sudden jump in his strikeout rate to 11.7 K/9 from his 8.8 average. A 1.7 K:BB is fairly close to his 1.8 career mark, but his 10.6 H/9 is a noticeable increase over his 7.9 rate. The two homers appear largely accountable for much of the poor ERA as a 2.3 HR/9 remains very unacceptable, especially when compared to a .9 average; his 1.11 G-F is only slightly above his 1.07 career G-F, so there's been no systematic change in his skills. I expect his elevated ratios will correct themselves with more playing time as this seems to be mostly a problem of sample size and great competition. If you were counting on Seanez for some inexpensive quality middle relief, continue to wait for the probable improvement, but there's also no reason to acquire him if he's not on your roster.

Toronto: Luke Prokopec, RH Starter
1-1 on 11:3 K:BB in 13 IP over 3 GS with 25 H, 2 HR, and 18-18 G-F; 8.31 ERA.

Although I'm not overly surprised by his struggles in the AL, the Jays needs him to start pitching effectively if they're going to emerge as a potential Wild Card team. With their current struggles in middle relief, we're beginning to downgrade our expectations of their 2002 performance.

A 034 PQS log shows respectable improvement and only a problem with an elevated hit rate. After managing a 9.9 career H/9, a jump to 17.3 H/9 will obviously create ERA problems. However, other than this increased hittability, his K:BB(3.7 '02; 2.2 career) and K/9(7.6 '02; 6.0 career) both offer immediate promise. His 1.4 HR/9 is actually down from his 1.6 career mark even as his G-F has risen to 1.00 from a .73 average. Certainly consider an attempt to acquire him if you see his hit rate dropping in the next few starts, as the rest of his skills indicate a lot of potential if he can develop more consistency.

Today's Fantasy Rx: Roger Clemens does not appear to be a particularly popular play in Challenge games when compared to studs like Randy, Schilling, and Pedro, but we consider him as must-own because of his win and strikeout potential. While he would be a great pick-up for any team at this point, make sure to grab him no later than Mid-May in most challenges; the only reason you might want to wait another week is because he's spending his next couple starts against Oakland and Seattle.