Today's Fantasy Rx

Note: Whenever I list three averages for hitters in a row, the order is as follows: BA/OBP/SLG.

Arizona: Mark Grace, 1B
13/60 for .217/.338/.417 with 3 HR, 9 RBI, 12 R, 0/0 SB%, and 10:4 BB:K

Arizona doesn't really have any severely underperforming starters at the moment, but this BA likely will worry some owners. As per last year, Bob Brenly continues to switch around his lineup at random, so Grace is likely to see time almost everywhere except #1 and #8 by the end of the year.

Grace may have one of the best batting eyes in history as he's never been below a 1 BB:K in a single season. His 2002 2.5 BB:K isn't surprising considering his career mark of 1.7; he's also comfortably above his normal walk rate(.17 '02; .13 career). Even his contact rate is right on target at .93(.92 career), and his pitches per plate appearance (#P/PA) are slightly above his career mark(3.51 '02; 3.56 career). The biggest departure from normal in his skills is that he currently has the lowest G-F ratio of his career at 1.00, significantly under his 1.43 average. Since Grace is not a traditional power hitter in that he has almost three times as many doubles as homers, expect his averages to head upwards as he starts hitting more doubles; he currently has 3 2B and 3 HR. Nothing in his stats indicates that he's lost his hitting talent, but in consideration of his age and the Diamondbacks' need for more power in the lineup at some point, I can only advise you to wait for Grace to improve.

Atlanta: Javy Lopez, C
12/54 for .222/.288/.315 with 1 HR, 3 RBI, 2 R, 0/0 SB%, and 2:9 BB:K

Atlanta re-signed Lopez for this season despite his lackluster 2001 season, one that saw the worst stats he'd compiled in any season with more than 400 AB in several years. With little production from their corner infield slots, the Braves need Javy to re-emerge as an important force in their offense, and unfortunately for them, he's started rather slowly.

While Bobby Cox will spell Lopez with Henry Blanco when Greg Maddux pitches, as well as selected other dates, Lopez will continue to receive the most playing time almost regardless of his offense. His BB:K(.22 '02; .37 career), walk rate(.04 '02; .07 career), and #P/PA(3.20 '02; 3.36 career) are well off his normal averages, although his contact rate is actually showing a little improvement(.83 '02; .82 career). These statistics indicate that Lopez is showing less plate discipline, and therefore less selectivity at the plate. His G-F ratio remains around 1.4 for the second straight year instead of his career average 1.6, and his 2001 SLG was his worst mark in a full-time role. I certainly hope he'll remerge as a competent offensive threat, but I remain quite worried about this level of production. Long-time catchers can tend to lose their offensive skills rapidly in their 30's, and Lopez has been Atlanta's primary starter for over eight years. You probably have little choice but to wait in the hope that he'll rediscover his stroke, but I also would consider any reasonable deal offered to you.

Chicago Cubs: Fred McGriff, 1B
14/62 for .226/.351/.306 with 1 HR, 6 RBI, 7 R, 0/0 SB%, and 12:10 BB:K.

The Cubs acquired McGriff last year to protect Sosa and provide them with a secondary power source. Now the Cubs' offense is sputtering in part because McGriff's supposed protection, Moises Alou, hasn't remained healthy.

McGriff's BB:K(1.2 '02; .71 career) is the best number of his career, and his .19 walk rate is also far above his .15 career average; his .84 contact rate exceeds his career .78 mark. His apparently improved plate discipline also shows up in his 3.96 #P/PA when compared to his 3.77 career norm, and he's also hitting for as much power as in his prime with a G-F down to 1.00, a full .25 below average. One possible explanation is that McGriff has simply lost his power stroke and will continue to hit flyouts, but I find it far more likely that his production will catch up to his discipline. You should see most of his roto numbers begin to climb very soon, so consider McGriff a great target to acquire in the right deal.

Cincinnati: Adam Dunn, OF
14/58 for .241/.397/.328 with 1 HR, 7 RBI, 10 R, 1/2 SB%, and 14:22 BB:K

Dunn's 2001 MLE line included .310/49/118/14/120, and we projected him for .277/42/113/9/94 based on an expectation of reasonable growth at the major league level. However, we've seen some analysts doubt his immediate potential based on his weak September numbers and a general belief that he didn't receive enough development time in the minors.

The one glaring number in this otherwise potentially worrisome stat line is his .397 OBP, largely buoyed by a sharply increased walk rate from 2001(.22 '02; .16 career); his BB:K has similarly improved to .59 from .51. His #P/PA jumped by an even greater degree to 4.61 from 4.12, so he's among the major league leaders in pitches seen each at-bat. The downside to this increased patience is that his power skills are no longer evident: his contact rate has dropped to .62 from .70, and most troubling, his G-F has more than doubled to 1.64 from .80. Perhaps some of this can be attributed to a lineup that now relies on him as the primary power source, as well as opposing teams pitching around him to face the weaker batters, but we'll have to severely reduce our power expectations if these numbers continue much longer. Deal him if you can received full value from someone looking exclusively at his plate discipline; wait for improvement if can't find an acceptable deal.

Colorado: Jose Ortiz, 2B
11/49 for .224/.250/.327 with 1 HR, 3 RBI, 5 R, 0/0 SB%, and 2:13 BB:K.

We'd be very concerned about his playing time if Terry Shumpert wasn't playing even worse than Ortiz. Perhaps he'll just start slowly every year, but I'm growing very concerned about his long-term potential even beyond my short-term worries. Oakland doesn't normally deal players likely to emerge as stars, and there's little to like in this stat line. While his BB:K(.15 '02; .41 career) has never been great, it's also now fallen for four straight halves. His walk rate is also logically down to .042 from last year's .069, and his patience is disappearing as he's down to 3.65 #P/PA from last season's 3.80. Combined with a sharp drop in his contact rate to .73 from .83 and an even more frustrating jump in his G-F ratio from 1.19 to 2.00 this season, we're left with the conclusion that Ortiz is either hiding an injury or is simply completely lost at the plate. Perhaps the combination of dropping him from 2nd to 7th in the order, along with "ten minutes every day working with Rockies hitting instructor Clint Hurdle on being more aggressive within the strike zone", has corrupted the talent that made him one of the top prospects after 2000. Colorado should consider demoting him to AAA until he regains his swing, and they at least have several potential replacements in Terry Shumpert, Brent Butler, and minor league veterans like Kevin Nicholson, Tim Bogar, and Mike Bell. Jose Ortiz could be a primary offensive cog in the Rockies' next playoff team, and they can't afford for him to lose an entire season due to this bad start. You should deal him for any reasonable offer of another starting second baseman, and otherwise wait for him to emerge from this impatient groundball funk during his next extended homestand during the middle of May.

Florida: Kevin Millar, OF
13/62 for .210/.275/.355 with 1 HR, 3 RBI, 6 R, 0/0 SB%, and 6:12 BB:K.

Millar surprised many people by emerging as the Marlins' starting right fielder last season as well as a potential $20 roto find. He impressed the Marlins' brass this spring to earn the Opening Day cleanup assignment, and now he may be disappearing back down the lineup as fast as last year's rise.

His .097 walk rate is actually very close to his .109 career mark, although his .5 BB:K is the worst level of his four-year career. Interestingly, he's now seeing 4.29 #P/PA, a significant improvement from his 3.90 career average. His contact rate(.81 '02; .83 career) isn't off by much, and his .79 G-F ratio is only slightly over his .73 average. I'm a little concerned that he's displaying too much patience as some of those extra pitches are contributing to the highest strikeout rate of his career at almost 20%, but I really don't see a noticeably worse level of skill than demonstrated in previous years. Eric Owens is also struggling and the Marlins lack anyone else capable of emerging as a starter unless they're willing to trust AAA minor league veterans Andy Abad or Brian Banks, both off to great starts at Calgary. Millar's only obstacle to continued playing time would be a 2-for-1 trade involving Cliff Floyd, and few teams outside of perhaps the Yankees can deal two outfield prospects both more prepared to start than Millar. Given these circumstances, Millar appears a prime candidate to acquire from anyone unnecessarily worried about a potential loss of playing time.

Houston: Morgan Ensberg, 3B
11/43 for .256/.347/.395 with 1 HR, 3 RBI, 5 R, 2/2 SB%, and 5:9 BB:K.

Most of Houston's offensive starters are performing as expected aside from the rookies on the left side of the infield, and the Astros have already demoted Adam Everett, returning the SS job to Julio Lugo. Now we've been seeing reports of increased playing time for Geoff Blum, and Keith Ginter has a very impressive start in AAA. Few people likely have great long-term expectations for Ensberg since he's only beginning in the majors at 26, but we also expected him to contend for Rookie of the Year this season. His current statistics, especially in consideration of the advantages of Astros' Field, simply don't support that assessment.

Without any significant major league time prior to this season, our best standard for assessment is to compare him to his MLEs from the past two seasons. His .56 BB:K is a decrease from his .68 and .69 MLEs, although his .13 walk rate has returned to his 2000 level after a brief drop to .10 last year. A .80 contact rate is halfway between the last two years and isn't unexpected for anyone adjusting to the majors. More impressively, his 4.09 #P/PA and .86 G-F ratio both offer solid indication of forthcoming immediate improvement. If his owner is even slightly dissatisfied with his current performance, you'll want to acquire Ensberg from him at your first opportunity.

Los Angeles: Shawn Green
17/72 for .236/.300/.417 with 3 HR, 13 RBI, 9 R, 1/1 SB%, and 6:18 BB:K.

While the RBI/R marks are decent, his OPS is worse than every other Dodger's starter except for Dave Roberts. Now when I assumed in the offseason that Green would not be hurt by the departure of Sheffield, I expected a lineup with the top hitters in the top half, likely something along the lines of Beltre/Lo Duca/Green/Jordan. At worst, I figured Jim Tracy would lead off with the centerfielder, likely Tom Goodwin, and follow him with Beltre/Green/Jordan/Lo Duca. I never imagined that he would lead off with the two weakest hitters on the team in Roberts and Cesar Izturis while burying Jordan and Beltre down in the order. We spent a second round pick on Green in the expectation that he would improve on last year's season, and now we're wondering if he'll even reach thirty homers.

Green's .33 BB:K is off from an already weak .50 career rate; this is his lowest mark in a few years and not a great sign for continued development. His walk rate has slipped to .086 from his career .098 mark and his contact rate is also down to .75 from his career .80 rate. The one good sign is that his 3.56 #P/PA is almost identical to last year's number if still .2 below his career average. However, the giant power departure can largely be attributed to a sudden reversal in a consistently falling G-F ratio, and his current 1.87 ratio is the highest mark of his career, as well as a good .45 above his average.

Considering his likely salary and/or draft slot for this season, I see little alternative but to wait and hope that he regains his power stroke, although I'd deal him for comparable pre-season value at this time.

Milwaukee: Raul Casanova, C
9/44 for .205/.280/.227 with 0 HR, 1 RBI, 1 R, 0/0 SB%, and 5:8 BB:K.

I expected Casanova to emerge as a legitimate power threat at catcher this season, and following the Blanco trade, we predicted him for 22 homers. Unfortunately he's been one of the primary culprits of Milwaukee's slow start, and even after their improvement following Lopes' dismissal, Casanova has not followed the team trend.

His plate discipline appears to have improved with nice upticks in walk rate(.12 '02; .09 career) and BB:K(.63 '02; .50 career), but that belies a 3.28 #P/PA, the fourth straight year in which his #P/PA has fallen. Combined with a decreasing contact rate(.80 '02; .82 career), the most worrisome stat is a return to his groundout ways. Casanova decreased his G-F to .81 last year from 1.88 in 2000, but it's back up to 1.73 this season, right around his career average. We predicted the power breakout based on the sharp drop in last year's ratio, and we'll have to quickly revise our projections downward unless someone fixes Casanova's swing. For now, you should certainly remain available if another owner would like to deal for him, although you should also wait rather than dumping him for just any available catcher.

Montreal: Orlando Cabrera, SS
20/73 for .274/.346/.356 with 0 HR, 6 RBI, 10 R, 2/2 SB%, and 7:9 BB:K.

With Montreal owning the best offense in the league, even Cabrera is a stretch as everyone is performing at a high level. Even Wilkerson and Bergeron are holding OBPs of .400 and .379 respectively, so my concern is as to why Cabrera has not shared in the RBI/R riches of the rest of the lineup.

We learned during Spring Training that Cabrera had a herniated disc in his back that would likely cause him difficulty for the entire year, especially with regards to both contact and power numbers. While not quite at his career .70 level, his .67 BB:K is still quite respectable, and his walk rate(.08 '02; .06 career) is actually an improvement on his average. Most impressively, his #P/PA has increased for four straight seasons to it's current 3.82, a nice upgrade over last year's 3.49. His contact rate has grown a little shallow at .87, his worst mark in many years but not significantly below his career .91 average, and with his 1.25 G-F right in the middle of his range over the last three seasons, I don't see anything troublesome in these skills. I expect he'll continue to have problems with his back and you might want to consider moving him before your deadline as I expect him to potentially miss at least part of September, but there's no reason not to wait for additional improvement. He might be a good acquisition if his current owner is a little too worried about Cabrera's back, and I'd also consider dealing him for a comparable starting shortstop. You'll need to balance the upside of Cabrera's intact skills against the downside of his back problems before making a final decision on his status.

New York Mets: Jay Payton, OF
12/59 for .203/.299/.305 with 1 HR, 4 RBI, 11 R, 1/1 SB%, and 8:10 BB:K

I'm not particularly surprised that the Mets have benched Payton just as he's finally discovered the virtues of plate discipline. Timo Perez is the next best choice to Roger Cedeno for a traditional leadoff hitter, and Payton's making a lot less than Cedeno.

Considering the effort and patience necessary for Payton's development to this point, I also can't condone sitting him right now. He's posting the best BB:K(.80 '02; .42 career), walk rate(.14 '02; .06 career), and #P/PA(3.49 '02; 3.30 career) of his entire career, although his contact rate(.82 '02; .87 career) has continued it's drop from the second half of 2001. His 1.53 G-F is also showing only marginal improvement from last year's 1.59 and remains worse than his 1.44 career average. Batting Coach Dave Engle needs to work on Payton's actual swings, since his plate discipline appears fine, but he needs a more level stroke to generate power. With his currently diminished playing time and recently-found plate discipline, now seems like a great time to acquire Payton, especially as he appears to be a solid sleeper at the moment.

Philadelphia: Travis Lee, 1B
14/66 for .212/.321/.333 with 1 HR, 8 RBI, 5 R, 0/1 SB%, and 11:14 BB:K.

I've expected Lee to be on his way out of town for some time, especially since Burrell would be more confident defensively at first base. Lee simply hasn't reached anywhere close to his potential, and while he's still relatively young and could emerge as a star for a few seasons, he's not really helping the Phillies now since this is the lowest OPS of this career.

His plate discipline remains excellent, and despite this weak start, he's showing good improvement in his BB:K(.79 '02; .73 career), walk rate(.17 '02; .14 career), and #P/PA(4.09 '02; 3.72 career). While his contact rate(.79 '02; .81 career) is a little under his average, he's also posting the best G-F ratio of his five-year career at 1.20. I see no reason for his weak production to continue as all his underlying skills indicate improvement in the near future. If his owner is currently dissatisfied, feel free to acquire him if possible, but I'd certainly wait for that improvement if we still owned him.

Pittsburgh: Jason Kendall, C
8/48 for .167/.273/.250 with 0 HR, 4 RBI, 5 R, 2/3 SB%, and 7:3 BB:K.

The Pirates' resurgence to this point has been keyed by pitching and defense, not by a still struggling offense that has received little production from its most expensive players. Kendall finally appeared to break out with a respectable weekend, although his production is still quite low.

Fortunately, his plate discipline remains excellent with a superb BB:K(2.33 '02; 1.02 career), walk rate(.15 '02; .10 career), #P/PA(3.85 '02; 3.81 career), and contact rate(.94 '02; .90 career). The biggest problem here appears to be a sudden jump in his G-F ratio to a career-worst 1.73, a significant problem when compared to his 1.39 career average. Now with all of his other indicators showing good potential for immediate improvement, I'm going to hope that this power outage is a strictly short-term fluke, but don't be surprised if his SLG remains depressed this year. I certainly expect the rest of his offensive numbers to head upwards, with BA showing the greatest roto potential. Kendall is definitely someone to acquire as he should help in at least every category but power, and you should certainly at least continue to wait for that rebound even if you're displeased with his current stats.

San Diego: Ramon Vazquez, SS
7/43 for .163/.182/.186 with 0 HR, 1 RBI, 3 R, 0/0 SB%, and 1:13 BB:K.

San Diego acquired Vazquez to be their SS solution for the next several years. With his current severe struggles, Deivi Cruz and D'Angelo Jimenez might be given a look at SS since the Padres have several excellent second base prospects in the pipeline. Vazquez needs to start hitting soon to secure his future in Southern California.

After MLE walk rates of .11 and .13, he's only managing a .02, and his .08 BB:K is terribly worse than his recent .61 and .87 MLEs. A .70 contact rate is over .10 worse than any of his MLEs from the last four years, and his 2.16 G-F ratio indicates no power development. The one confounding stat in these numbers is a very good 3.93 #P/PA, a level normally indicative of a very competent hitter. If not for that number, I'd recommend taking almost any deal, so if you had faith in him at the draft, then you might want to wait another month as the Padres are scheduled against several of the weaker pitching staffs in the league.

San Francisco: Jeff Kent, 2B and Lost Son of Evil Knievel
12/55 for .218/.262/.400 with 3 HR, 9 RBI, 9 R, 0/0 SB%, and 4:6 BB:K.

Even accounting for a slow start, Kent's OPS remains almost 200 points below his career average. Like the Pirates, the Giants have stayed hot because of their incredible pitching, but Kent will need to give the Giants a secondary offensive threat if they want to remain in the hunt this year.

Kent's BB:K(.67 '02; .47 career) and contact rate(.89 '02; .80 career) have seen nice improvements, but his walk rate(.07 '02; .09 career) is at his lowest point in several years. His meager 3.05 #P/PA is a career low and far below his 3.60 average. Even a .71 G-F, a return to the form he displayed in 1997-2000 rather than last year's .94, doesn't compensate for his diminished patience. His overall numbers are only moderately acceptable because of his skyrocketing contact rate, but he should at least produce a year comparable to last season. You should wait on his improvement for now, as he neither seems a great candidate to return to an MVP-caliber level of production nor should he continue to have an OPS below .800, not to mention .700.

St. Louis: Tino Martinez, 1B
9/59 for .153/.282/.186 with 0 HR, 7 RBI, 1 R, 0/0 SB%, and 11:12 BB:K.

Wide divisions existed in the conventional wisdom of Tino leaving New York for St. Louis. Most sabermetricians figured he'd continue his descent below replacement level and into worthless mediocrity while scouts and several national columnists expected him to emerge as a worthy heir to Mark McGwire.

Neither of these predictions really seems accurate at the moment as Martinez's skills have suddenly improved while his production has remained relatively non-existent. His .92 BB:K is a significant improvement upon his career .71 mark while his .19 walk rate is close to double his .11 norm. While his #P/PA has now fallen for four straight years to the current 3.65 level, it's still only slightly below his 3.80 career average. More worrisome, his contact rate(.80 '02; .85 career) and G-F ratio(1.24 '02; 1.00 career) indicate that he might be losing his hitting ability even as his plate discipline has reached perhaps his best level ever. Martinez is a little young even for the typical deterioration of skills at a traditional power position, but this is either another apparent aberration like 2000 or the start of that expected production decline.

Since I see no clear indicator or overreaching trend, I'm going to advise you to wait for more data before making any decision on Martinez. We're certainly not prepared to drop him where we own him, but we're also not willing to make an offer for him where we don't. He should improve at least to his 2000 level by the end of the year, although you should definitely monitor this situation.

Today's Fantasy Rx: Check out the new Home Team Challenge at mlb.com. They're offering a very interesting twist on fantasy games, perfect for the more casual players. I'll try to provide a game review on it ASAP, but I may not have time before it starts on Friday. Fortunately it runs in segments so you can pick it up in the middle of the year, but only the first period is free. The grand prize winner gets a pair of season tickets to the team of their choice, so we're definitely going to check our the rules rather thoroughly at our earliest opportunity.