Today's Fantasy Rx

Note: Whenever I list three averages for hitters in a row, the order is as follows: BA/OBP/SLG.

Anaheim: Tim Salmon, OF
10/60 for .167/.286/.217 with 0 HR, 7 RBI, 7 R, 0/0 SB%, and 9:13 BB:K.

Mike Scioscia has demoted Salmon to the latter half of lineup after his power-deficient start. Long considered the best veteran never to make an All-Star team, Salmon has missed parts of the last three seasons due to injury and his power appears drained. Given their lack of upper-level hitting prospects, Anaheim should keep Salmon in the lineup in the hope that he'll hit his way through this slump.

The best sign in these statistics is that his walk rate (.15 '02; .17 career) and BB:K(.69 '02; .72 career) are both nearly at his career marks, and his contact rate (.78 '02; .76 career) is even above his career average. Despite his current lack of extra-base power, Salmon still has solid plate discipline and more importantly, his G-F ratio is the best of his career at .70. Also remember that Anaheim has exclusively faced Cleveland, Oakland, Seattle, and Texas to this point, and they'll enter a much easier stretch of pitching this weekend with 3 of their next four series against Toronto and Detroit. Expect Salmon to begin hitting soon, certainly wait if you hold him, and definitely consider an attempt to acquire him in your AL leagues.

Baltimore: Chris Singleton, OF
6/59 for .119/.156/.169 with 0 HR, 3 RBI, 5 R, 2/3 SB%, and 3:13 BB:K.

Singleton has been semi-regularly benched in favor of the scorching Melvin Mora and Jerry Hairston, Baltimore's preferred leadoff hitter. While SS Mike Bordick is hitting almost as bad as Singleton, he plays better defense at a more important position than Singleton, and therefore needs to stay in the lineup. Neither Mora nor Singleton possesses enough power to play any corner position, so Singleton will need to begin hitting to force Mora to the infield.

Players who don't reach the majors until their prime usually have shorter careers, especially as starting players, and Singleton didn't reach the majors until he was 26. He's now 29 and has no upside, so his best role is as a fourth outfielder since he's a high-BA, good defense outfielder with a little power and speed but without sufficient secondary skills to merit a full-time position given his weak OPB and SLG.

Singleton's BB:K is only slightly below his career average (.24 to .40) and his BB/AB is also mostly right on target at .051 compared to .055. The reason he's apparently fallen apart at the plate is his contact rate ((AB-K)/AB) has fallen from his career average .86 down to an unacceptably low .77, especially considering his low walk rate. You'll likely want to reserve him until his strikeout rate decreases, but as long as you drafted him with the understanding that Singleton's shallow skills define him as a high-risk, high-upside player, I'd advise you to wait before making any other move to replace him at this time.

Boston: Trot Nixon, OF
9/49 for .184/.245/.286 with 1 HR, 4 RBI, 6 R, 1/2 SB%, and 7:14 BB:K.

Grady Little has jerked Nixon around this year, batting him all over the lineup; he expected to hit second this year between Johnny Damon and Nomar, but now finds himself in the lower half of the lineup to "produce a few more runs after (Tony) Clark".

We were rather concerned about Boston's potential in April, especially with regards to quantitative statistics, as they're scheduled for less games this month than any other team; they're also more likely to sustain rainouts than almost any other team. Fortunately for Nixon owners, Boston begins a two-week stretch tomorrow in which they only face Baltimore and Tampa Bay, so expect some improvement based on the weak opposition pitching alone.

Nixon was a prime candidate for a power breakout before this season, and his skills support rapid improvement in the near future. His G-F is at the best level of his career at only .57, and he's also now seeing 4.44 pitches per plate appearances, a full .3 over last year's career-high mark and even above last year's major league high of 4.27. I'm a little concerned that he's almost too patient as his BB:K has fallen from .88 in the first half of last year, to .59 in the second half, and now it's down to .50; he's striking out too much while waiting for a perfect pitch. His contact rate also fell from .82 to .76 during last season, and it's staying right at .76 this year. However, these are minor quibbles against his overall skills, and I still strongly encourage you to acquire Nixon if possible.

Chicago White Sox: Carlos Lee, OF
15/67 for .225/.264/.388 with 3 HR, 10 RBI, 8 R, 0/0 SB%, and 4:9 BB:K.

Following a season mostly spent at #3 and #6, Chicago demoted Lee to the #7 hole to break up their string of right-handed power hitters (Thomas/Ordonez/Konerko) with Jose Valentin. Lee likely knows that he's not in the Sox' long-term plans due to his handedness and weak defense, and the combination of these factors is at least not encouraging a hot start.

Lee's current BB:K of .44 is actually an improvement over his career rate of .35, and his .060 walk rate is also slightly better than his career mark of .055. While there's no change in his pitches per plate appearance, which remains hovering around 3.7, his G-F ratio has abruptly dropped to .59 from his career mark of 1.08. This foretells an immediate power surge, and I wouldn't be surprised to see Lee crank out 10 HR in at least two summer months as they weather improves. I don't expect him to reach an excessive number of RBI and he likely won't run much at all, but definitely look to acquire him if you need a HR source.

Cleveland: Ricky Gutierrez, 2B
16/64 for .250/.294/.312 with 1 HR, 5 RBI, 7 R, 0/0 SB%, and 2:9 BB:K.

Expected to spend most of the season batting as high as 2nd, Charlie Manuel has buried Gutierrez in the #6 and #7 holes ahead of only Einar Diaz, Milton Bradley, and sometime Russ Branyan. Instead of his manager expecting him to set the table for the heart of the order, Gutierrez is now considered a run producer despite his relatively weak power.

Gutierrez has kept his career G-F at over 2.4, and in his attempt to power the ball this season, it's dropped to 1.21 while dropping his SLG down to his Astrodome days. Both his walk rate(.03 02; .11 career) and BB:K(.22 '02; .63 BB:K) are down over 60% from his career norms, and his pitches per plate appearance are at the lowest level of his career at 3.24. Now some of this drop began last season when the Cubs needed his power, and his #P/PA dropped to 3.37 when he hadn't previously been below 3.69 as a starter, but someone in either Chicago or Cleveland should have noticed his decreasing plate discipline.

Cleveland's offense should begin decreasing as they face better pitching, but they still spend most of May facing Baltimore, Kansas City, Detroit for two series each, along with series against both Texas and Toronto. Thanks to the weak Central teams, they won't face especially potent rotations until June and July when they play against the AL East and NL East. Definitely wait on Gutierrez at least through the end of May, but you might want to consider a deal at that time if you can improve another area of your team.

Detroit: Jose Macias, 2B/OF
6/47 for .128/.212/.149 with 0 HR, 1 RBI, 5 R, 0/0 SB%, and 4/5 BB:K.

I had incredibly high expectations for Macias despite a somewhat limited skills' set as I focused on his power/speed upside while ignoring his OBP difficulties. Due largely to a weak Spring Training and the overall terrible situation in Detroit, he found himself jerked around the order this season and frequently benched despite an off-season anointment as the starting centerfielder and leadoff hitter.

Unlike the previous few players, Macias' strength is his speed, and a higher G-F rate means he's attempting to utilize his gifts; in 2002 he's improved from a career rate of about 1.5 to 1.75, indicating that he's fitting better with Comerica's unique attributes. His 3.47 pitches per plate appearance are right around his career 3.5 average, and despite his somewhat limited and irregular playing time, both his walk rate(.085 '02; .076 career) and BB:K(.8 '02; .64 career) show decent improvement. Even his contact rate(.89 '02; .88 career) is slightly better than his career average, so given these still solid skills, I see no reason for his dreadful start nor his benching in favor of Andres Torres. While Torres remains an excellent prospect with an upside much higher than Macias', Torres really should have more than 12 AB in AAA since he needs to work on his plate discipline. As long as you think Macias will somehow receive more playing time, consider him a potentially nice cheap speed source who shouldn't be difficult to acquire right now.

Kansas City: Brent Mayne, C
6/36 for .158/.227/.184 with 0 HR, 4 RBI, 6 R, 0/0 SB%, and 4:6 BB:K.

Mayne is now 34 and almost a year removed from Colorado, so now is when you'd expect to see a decline in his production. Kansas City has few alternatives as they're not even pleased with A.J. Hinch as their backup, so unless Allard Baird makes an incredibly intelligent move, such as talking Florida into taking Neifi Perez for Ramon Castro, they'll need to let Mayne continue to start. This situation is even more unfortunate for Royals' fans as Baird gave Mayne a two-year extension over the significantly better but occasionally injured Gregg Zaun.

Similar to seemingly almost everyone on today's list so far, almost all of his primary skill ratios are nearly identical to his career marks, including contact rate, walk rate, and BB:K while his #P/PA have increased and his G-F has fallen back to his career average of about 1.7 after reaching nearly 2.0 last season. Given these marks, Mayne seems a logical bet for improvement, a decent trade target for those needing a second catcher, and certainly at least someone who you should wait a few more weeks for more information before removing him from your team.

Minnesota: Cristian Guzman, SS
19/79 for .228/.247/.253 with 0 HR, 6 RBI, 7 R, 3/6 SB%, and 2:8 BB:K.

After missing a month of last season with an inflamed shoulder that turned out to be dislocated, Guzman's skills were definitely weaker when he returned for the last month-and-a-half of the season. He's hitting second between the red-hot Jacque Jones and consistent Doug Mientkiewicz, and Guzman's lack of offense has opened a significant hole in their lineup, a problem compounded by Luis Rivas' injury and leaving them with a very weak middle infield.

Guzman's walk rate is down to only .025 from his career mark of .056 and his BB:K has slipped to .25 from a career .36, although his contact rate has taken a severe jump to .90 from .83. So while he's putting the ball in play in all but 10% of his at-bats, he's been unable to reach base, perhaps because he's not waiting for his pitch as his #P/PA has dropped to almost 3.25 from 3.45 over the last two years. The most interesting aspect of his 2002 skills is that his G-F ratio has skyrocketed to 4.00 after dropping from 3.15 to 1.99 and then 1.65 over the last three years.

Considering his incredible speed, I definitely agree with the strategy of hitting the ball on the ground, and if that's his goal, he's done a wonderful job modifying his swing away from power. The Twins should certainly consider moving him to either the #9 or even the #1 slots once his OBP improves to take advantage of his ground balls and speed, but I see nothing worrisome here other than an early slump. He's going to drop back to replacement level RAR if not under as long as he ignores power, but he's still young enough to naturally develop a power stroke later in his career. For now, Guzman appears a great player to acquire if you need speed since I fully expect him to approach 40 SB by the end of this year if he can begin to outrun all of these new groundballs.

New York Yankees: Bernie Williams, OF
13/60 for .217/.377/.283 with 1 HR, 6 RBI, 9 R, 2/3 SB%, and 15:8 BB:K.

Williams certainly appears to have geared his approach towards hitting second as his OBP remains very good despite a noticeable drop in power. Remember that Williams always starts fairly poorly before heating up in May, and his skills definitely point to a potential career year at 33.

While he's always had solid skills, a 1.88 BB:K ranks with the best players in the game and is a large improvement over past Aprils and his .91 career average. A .25 walk rate is also greatly elevated from his .14 career average, and even his .87 contact rate is up from his .84 career average. His #P/PA has shot up to 4.31, over .5 better than his 3.76 career mark, and finally his 1.28 G-F is the best mark of his 12-year career by .05, as well as a significant .34 under his career average.

All these skills combine to indicate that Bernie is displaying better plate patience and power potential than at any other point in his career, and I fully expect his .660 OPS to shoot up no later than after the Yankees spend the next two weeks against Oakland and Seattle. You'll definitely want to acquire Williams if possible sometime before May 7th as he could contend for the MVP during the remaining five months of the season.

Oakland: Ramon Hernandez, C
6/47 for .128/.176/.191 with 0 HR, 3 RBI, 4 R, 0/0 SB%, and 3:7 BB:K.

Oakland technically has alternatives at catcher with former starters Greg Myers and Scott Hatteberg on the roster, but after signing Hernandez for the next four years during the off-season, they've committed to him as a long-term component of the team. He also possesses the best defense of these three players, so expect Oakland to continue playing him at least four times a week.

Hernandez appeared primed for a breakout as he's 25 with 2+ years of major league experience, and while many players turn in superior seasons at 26, the main factor in sudden growth is the experience level. From a skills' perspective, his BB:K(.43 '02; .64 career), walk rate(.06 '02; .09 career), and contact rate(.851 '02; .858 career) are all below his established averages, although his 3.75 #P/PA is almost exactly his career level. More significantly, he's certainly getting under the ball as his G-F dropped from1.33 down to .85, a definite indicator that he's attempting to hit for more power. While I remain a little concerned about the drop in plate discipline, the other indicators suggest that a significant offensive improvement should occur soon, so definitely look to acquire Hernandez from potentially dissatisfied owners.

Seattle: Jeff Cirillo, 3B
17/71 for .239/.273/.324 with 1 HR, 12 RBI, 7 R, 0/0 SB%, and 3:10 BB:K

Seattle acquired Cirillo to fill their somewhat significant 3B hole after many years of either offensive or defensive problems. He's considered a solid fielder and good contact hitter who should have slotted nicely between Ichiro and Olerud in the #2 slot of a high-scoring lineup. Many analysts were concerned when Cirillo's SLG showed practically no improvement in Coors while his OBP actually dropped from his .400+ days with the Brewers, and a move from the best hitters' park to one of the worst wasn't likely to help him this season. Approaching his 33rd birthday in September, Cirillo appeared likely to either enjoy a small power resurgence or continue his Mike Lansing-like descent into overpaid mediocrity.

Unfortunately for Seattle, he appears headed towards the latter skill level this year. His .3 BB:K is severely below his .86 career average, as are his walk rate(.04 '02; .11 career) and his contact rate(.85 '02; .87 career) to a lesser extent. Perhaps more significantly, his 3.24 pitches per plate appearance are a career low and almost .5 below his established level of performance. This problem is compounded by his normally fast start, and his low walk rate leaves me quite worried at this point. Like every other AL West batter, he'll benefit from facing lesser competition later in the season, but Seattle doesn't run into a truly bad team until they spend two weeks against Tampa Bay and Baltimore at the end of May. If you're willing to put up with weak numbers until then from Cirillo, wait until after that series; otherwise you might want to consider a deal now before his value slips even more.

Tampa Bay: Greg Vaughn, OF
9/66 for .136/.234/.152 with 0 HR, 5 RBI, 7 R, 1/2 SB%, and 9:20 BB:K.

While no one expected Vaughn to return to his MVP-caliber days in the National League, he's definitely hurting any owner that paid more than a couple of bucks for him. Tampa's stuck starting him considering they're not prepared to cut someone making several million dollars for the next couple years, and while Carl Crawford has started great in AAA, all their OF prospects need more minor league seasoning. With only Steve Cox, Toby Hall, and a resurgent Ben Grieve likely to contribute any power to this very weak lineup, the Rays need Vaughn to find his power stroke quickly if they're to have any shot at avoiding last place.

Corner offensive players with weak skills are at high risk to lose their ability quickly in their late-30's, and Vaughn will turn 37 in July. He's managed a decent BB:K(.45 '02; .57 career) and walk rate(.136 '02; .140 career) but his contact rate has taken a severe drop down to .697 from his career .755 level. Even with his .76 G-F returning down from two years of 1.00+ and a career-best 4.17 #P/PA, he won't be able to produce at an acceptable level if he can't get around on pitches. Unless you notice an abrupt drop in his strikeout rate, you should probably look to deal him soon to a team desperate for any power potential. Tampa's already played Detroit and Baltimore for two series each, and while they have two more series against Baltimore in May, they'll spend half the month playing Oakland, Seattle, and the Yankees, which isn't exactly the best scenario for anyone to show offensive improvement.

Texas: Carl Everett, OF
10/64 for .156/.214/.344 with 4 HR, 10 RBI, 7 R, 0/0 SB%, and 5:17 BB:K.

Everett has contributed practically nothing an offense other than those four homers. With both IRod and Juan Gonzalez likely to spend at least a few more weeks on the DL, Texas has slipped from a potential record-setting offense down to a league average collection of players with only ARod and Rafael Palmeiro as obvious and healthy standouts. His recovery from knee surgery can likely account for some of this performance, but his skills have also degraded.

His BB:K(.29 '02; .41 career), walk rate(.078 '02; .095 career), and contact rate(.73 '02; .77 career) struggles are all skill deficiencies that have little to do with his knee problems. This drop in plate discipline also shows up in his career-worst 3.59 #P/PA, a definite indicator of a more significant problem on offense. About the only positive sign is his career-best .79 G-F, and as the weather warms up, you can probably count on Everett to continue to hit at least 5 or 6 homers per month if he can remain on the field. Everett's skills indicate a shift in his potential down to the level of someone like Greg Vaughn over the last few years, so expect a decent amount of HR without much contribution in any other category. Look to acquire him cheaply if you need that home run boost, but if you own him now, probably look to deal him to a power-deficient team, even if you don't receive full value in return.

Toronto: Darren Fletcher, C
7/41 for .171/.217/.244 with 0 HR, 10 RBI, 4 R, 0/0 SB%, and 3:3 BB:K.

The Blue Jays were hoping that Fletcher would regain at least some of his offensive abilities, but Tom Wilson has also taken advantage of Fletcher's second consecutive slow start to demonstrate why he shouldn't have been kept down in the minors for the last few years. Another significant reason for the Jays' slow offensive start is a rather dreadful schedule that only gives them three games each against Baltimore and Tampa before the end of May. The Jays can likely make a late run as they spend the last three weeks of the season exclusively against Detroit and the aforementioned two teams, but they'll likely continue to struggle overall for the next several weeks.

Fletcher's skills actually appear fairly impressive at this point with his BB:K(1 '02; .65 career), walk rate(.073 '02; .067 career), and contact rate(.93 '02; .90 career) all in-line with his career-best marks, as is his .65 G-F ratio. Perhaps the only negative aspect of his skills is that despite this apparent improvement in plate discipline, his #P/PA is down to 3.38 when he's been at 3.5+ for two of the last three years. I remain slightly concerned about his prospects for the remainder of this year, and while I can't recommend you acquire him for at least another month, I'd definitely wait at least another six weeks or so for improvement in his averages before seeking a replacement.

Today's Fantasy Rx: Of the players listed above, Ramon Hernandez appears the player most likely to show immediate development based on his skill level, age and experience, team environment, and schedule. He'll likely finish among the top 10 catchers in roto value for the season, and now may be your last chance to acquire him for a while.